WASHINGTON (CNN) -- Pakistani President Pervez Musharraf -- a key U.S. ally -- is less popular in his own country than al Qaeda leader Osama bin Laden, according to a poll of Pakistanis conducted last month by an anti-terrorism organization.
Additionally, nearly three-fourths of poll respondents said they oppose U.S. military action against al Qaeda and the Taliban inside Pakistan, according to results from the poll conducted by the independent polling organization Terror Free Tomorrow.
"We have conducted 23 polls all over the Muslim world, and this is the most disturbing one we have conducted," said Ken Ballen, the group's head. "Pakistan is the one Muslim nation that has nuclear weapons, and the people who want to use them against us -- like the Taliban and al Qaeda -- are more popular there than our allies like Musharraf."
The poll was conducted for Terror Free Tomorrow by D3 Systems of Vienna, Virginia., and the Pakistan Institute for Public Opinion. Interviews were conducted August 18-29, face-to-face with 1,044 Pakistanis across 105 urban and rural sampling points in all four provinces across the nation. Households were randomly selected.
According to poll results, bin Laden has a 46 percent approval rating. Musharraf's support is 38 percent. U.S. President George W. Bush's approval: 9 percent.
Asked their opinion on the real purpose of the U.S.-led war on terror, 66 percent of poll respondents said they believe the United States is acting against Islam or has anti-Muslim motivation. Others refused to answer the question or said they did not know.
"We failed in winning hearts and minds in Pakistan," Ballen told CNN. "In fact, only 4 percent said we had a good motivation in the war on terrorism."
Seventy-four percent said they oppose U.S. military action against al Qaeda and the Taliban inside Pakistan.
After American relief efforts following the October 2005 earthquake in Pakistan's Kashmir region, 46 percent of Pakistanis had a positive opinion of the United States, according to the poll. But as of last month, only 19 percent reported a favorable opinion.
Meanwhile, al Qaeda has a 43 percent approval rate; the Taliban has a 38 percent approval rate; and local radical extremist groups had an approval rating between 37 percent to 49 percent.
Views of U.S. could improve, responses indicate
There were a few bright spots in the poll results, however. Opposition leader Benazir Bhutto -- a relatively moderate and progressive figure, as well as a woman -- had a 63 percent approval rating.
Seventy-five percent of poll respondents said suicide bombings are rarely or never justified.
And a majority of Pakistanis said their opinion of the United States would improve if, among other things, there were increases in American aid to Pakistan, American business investments and the number of visas issued for Pakistanis to work in the United States.
Terror Free Tomorrow is a non-partisan, nonprofit group in Washington, D.C., and according to its Web site is "the only organization dedicated to a new
Strange Times [Victor Davis Hanson...]
The Times of London answers the question in an editorial today -- when one has invested in defeat. The "Petraeus Curve" has exposed defeatists in Britain and the US, and as a result, no one wants to talk about the obvious and significant progress being made in Iraq. Success, it seems, has become too embarrassing for the media and some politicians to acknowledge (via Memeorandum):
In Iraq, it seems good news is deemed no news. There has been striking success in the past few months in the attempt to improve security, defeat al-Qaeda sympathisers and create the political conditions in which a settlement between the Shia and the Sunni communities can be reached. This has not been an accident but the consequence of a strategy overseen by General David Petraeus in the past several months. While summarised by the single word ?surge? his efforts have not just been about putting more troops on the ground but also employing them in a more sophisticated manner. This drive has effectively broken whatever alliances might have been struck in the past by terrorist factions and aggrieved Sunnis. Cities such as Fallujah, once notorious centres of slaughter, have been transformed in a remarkable time. .... The current achievements, and they are achievements, are being treated as almost an embarrassment in certain quarters. The entire context of the contest for the Democratic nomination for president has been based on the conclusion that Iraq is an absolute disaster and the first task of the next president is to extricate the United States at maximum speed. .... All of these attitudes have become outdated. There are many valid complaints about the manner in which the Bush Administration and Donald Rumsfeld, in particular, managed Iraq after the 2003 military victory. But not to recognise that matters have improved vastly in the year since Mr Rumsfeld's resignation from the Pentagon was announced and General Petraeus was liberated would be ridiculous. Politicians on both sides of the Atlantic have to appreciate that Iraq is no longer, as they thought, an exercise in damage limitation but one of making the most of an opportunity.
The current achievements, and they are achievements, are being treated as almost an embarrassment in certain quarters. The entire context of the contest for the Democratic nomination for president has been based on the conclusion that Iraq is an absolute disaster and the first task of the next president is to extricate the United States at maximum speed. ....
All of these attitudes have become outdated. There are many valid complaints about the manner in which the Bush Administration and Donald Rumsfeld, in particular, managed Iraq after the 2003 military victory. But not to recognise that matters have improved vastly in the year since Mr Rumsfeld's resignation from the Pentagon was announced and General Petraeus was liberated would be ridiculous. Politicians on both sides of the Atlantic have to appreciate that Iraq is no longer, as they thought, an exercise in damage limitation but one of making the most of an opportunity.
Why resist good news? Some of our media and political class put their chips on defeat, and have begun to realize how victory will destroy their credibility. Not everyone acted as foolishly as Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid when he declared victory for the terrorists this past spring, but most of the Western media has relentlessly highlighted every setback while ignoring most of the advances made in Iraq -- until the progress became too obvious to ignore any longer.
The Times notes that the defeatists have changed tactics. Where they previously argued that every piece of bad news meant that we should flee Iraq, now they argue that the decline in violence gives us a final opportunity to declare defeat and run away. They want to walk away from a strategic victory just to salvage their own credibility, ignoring what a stabilized and democratic Iraq could mean not just for the Iraqis but for the entire Middle East.
Now they have fallen back to a position where they wish for a resurgence of terrorism in Iraq for another argument to leave. It could still happen, of course, as the Times notes in its editorial. Without it, the defeatists will face even more embarrassment -- and the public will suddenly experience a sheepish silence on Iraq as we approach the November general election.
UPDATE: Even more progress:
In a dramatic turnaround, more than 3,000 Iraqi families driven out of their Baghdad neighborhoods have returned to their homes in the past three months as sectarian violence has dropped, the government said Saturday. Saad al-Azawi, his wife and four children are among them. They fled to Syria six months ago, leaving behind what had become one of the capital's more dangerous districts—west Baghdad's largely Sunni Khadra region. The family had been living inside a vicious and bloody turf battle between al-Qaida in Iraq and Mahdi Army militiamen. But Azawi said things began changing, becoming more peaceful, in August when radical anti-American Shiite cleric Muqtada al-Sadr ordered his Mahdi Army fighters to stand down nationwide. About the same time, the Khadra neighborhood Awakening Council rose up against brutal al-Qaida control—the imposition of its austere interpretation of
Saad al-Azawi, his wife and four children are among them. They fled to Syria six months ago, leaving behind what had become one of the capital's more dangerous districts—west Baghdad's largely Sunni Khadra region.
The family had been living inside a vicious and bloody turf battle between al-Qaida in Iraq and Mahdi Army militiamen. But Azawi said things began changing, becoming more peaceful, in August when radical anti-American Shiite cleric Muqtada al-Sadr ordered his Mahdi Army fighters to stand down nationwide.
About the same time, the Khadra neighborhood Awakening Council rose up against brutal al-Qaida control—the imposition of its austere interpretation of
Michael Yon reports on a meeting held between US forces and the Iraqi Islamic Party, whose spokesman comes from a politically influential tribe in Iraq. At the meeting, Yon noticed that the usual singular focus on security issues has declined to a lower-priority agenda item, and that rebuilding issues now receive the most attention. The IIP spokesman explained why:
?Al Qaeda in Iraq is defeated,? according to Sheik Omar Jabouri, spokesman for the Iraqi Islamic Party and a member of the widespread and influential Jabouri Tribe. Speaking through an interpreter at a 31 October meeting at the Iraqi Islamic Party headquarters in downtown Baghdad, Sheik Omar said that al Qaeda had been ?defeated mentally, and therefore is defeated physically,? referring to how clear it has become that the terrorist group?s tactics have backfired. Operatives who could once disappear back into the crowd after committing an increasingly atrocious attack no longer find safe haven among the Iraqis who live in the southern part of Baghdad. They are being hunted down and killed. Or, if they are lucky, captured by Americans. Colonel Ricky Gibbs, the American brigade commander with responsibility for the Rashid District in south Baghdad today told me, ?So goes South Baghdad goes Baghdad.? General Petraeus had told me similar things about the importance of South Baghdad. In fact, Rashid is quickly developing into what might be one of the final serious battlegrounds of the war.
Colonel Ricky Gibbs, the American brigade commander with responsibility for the Rashid District in south Baghdad today told me, ?So goes South Baghdad goes Baghdad.? General Petraeus had told me similar things about the importance of South Baghdad. In fact, Rashid is quickly developing into what might be one of the final serious battlegrounds of the war.
AQI has tried shifting strategies, moving away from inflaming sectarian conflict now that they have been discovered as its main provocateurs. Now they have started to create rifts between the tribes, ironically arriving at a tribal strategy later than the Americans. Omar told Yon that the tribes won't play along this time, as they can see exactly what AQI wants to do. In fact, leaders have warned the young men in the tribes that they will kill them if they work with AQI -- and 70 Jabouris have found out how serious the leaders are about that policy.
We certainly saw the mental defeat and collapse of morale indirectly in Osama bin Laden's last message. Their collapse in western Iraq and flight to the borders indicate how seriously they have lost, and the large declines in violence show how effective AQI provocations had been until the surge and the opposition of the tribes in the Awakening took place. AQI terrorists can no longer hide in Iraqi populations, because hiding among Iraqis has become more dangerous than getting captured by the Americans. Instead, they're running away from Iraq.
If the old saw ?no news is good news? has any truth to it, then things must be going very well indeed in the Iraq war. Increasingly obvious signs of success as a result of the ?surge? under the able leadership of General David Petraeus have all but rendered the mainstream media speechless on the warfront. From the days of constant television showing video of black smoke billowing from burning car bombs in marketplaces, we have now reached a virtual blackout. When was the last time you saw a detailed listing of U.S. and Iraqi casualties in the top right column of the New York Times or Washington Post?
The media are not going to report good news, which leaves Americans with the impression that the war is going as poorly now as it was a year ago. Nothing could be further from the truth.
Friendly casualties are lower than they have been in years, across the board: U.S. and allied forces, Iraqi security forces, and Iraqi civilian losses are all at near-record lows. Contrasted to this time last year, the comparison is staggering. And for all the recent caterwauling from craven Foreign Service Officers about a tour in Iraq being a ?death sentence, and you know it,? so far the State Department has not lost anyone except contractors hired at extravagant cost to protect its officers. (Can anyone say ?Blackwater??)
On the rise, however, are al-Qaeda In Iraq's losses, although you can expect to see them falling in the near future, too -- not because these foreign fighters are not being hunted down and killed, but because AQI targets populations are declining. Fewer and fewer recruits are coming through Syria into Iraq to join the fight.
Huge attrition rates have reduced AQI presence in Iraq dramatically. Partially as a result of these high losses, the brightness of the al Qaeda?s appeal among foreign fighters from Saudi Arabia, Chechnya, and other disturbed places around the region has dimmed. Yes, the terrorist training camps in Syria are still functioning and Damascus does little to impede foreign jihadists' travel through Syrian territory. But it appears some radicals who prefer to fight the infidel face to face are either waiting for another time (like after the 2008 elections) or are seeking more accommodating ground. Hence, the recent resurgence of fighting in Chechnya and Afghanistan.
According to Rear Admiral Greg Smith, spokesman for the Multi-National Force?Iraq, this largely unreported good news is attributable to the strategy General Petraeus brought with him on this his third tour of duty in Iraq. ?More than a majority in Anbar Province area have morally and physically rejected al Qaeda,? Smith reported in a conference call on October 31. ?The movement called Concerned Local Citizens ? often referred to as the Anbar Awakening ? has now spread across the entire country.? This is decidedly good news for those who love freedom and extraordinarily bad new for Al Qaeda Iraq.
?There are more than 120 separate Concerned Local Citizens groups around the country,? Greg notes, ?Many in the predominately Sunni areas that were former AQI strongholds.? By rejecting the terrorists and embracing a solution within the Iraqi government, tribal leaders and sheiks ? still the key opinion formers in the new republic ? have ?tilted the kinetics? hard in the direction of a non-violent solution to Iraqi problems.
This kinetic shift has enabled the military to take advantage of a broader range of targets. ?We continue to go after foreign fighters,? Smith said, ?and have expanded our targeting to include AQI propaganda arm, money laundering and finance, and operations.? According to Smith ?with the capture of the eighth AQI media cell, al-Qaeda?s ability to broadcast or make propaganda videos inside Iraq is severely degraded.?
Forces on the ground are careful not to overstate this success. ?We?ve still got a long way to go,? Smith affirmed. He was cautiously optimistic about returning Iraqi provinces to the responsibility of Iraqi security forces. ?Eight of 18 provinces are now under Iraqi control,? he noted. ?We e
Still, the truth behind these numbers is elusive. It's near impossible to discern whether they reflect the success of our military operations or some larger, deeper trends in Iraqi society, such as the success of the Shiite campaign to rid Baghdad of its Sunni residents. The situation does present a paradox, however. If the surge is the reason, as the generals claim, we're in trouble, because the surge is about to end.... If Iraqi reconciliation... and ethnic cleansing get primary credit, and the surge is mostly acting as a catalyst, our inevitable drawdown over the next six months to pre-surge levels may not be catastrophic, because the positive trends result more from Iraqi societal shifts and less from American soldiers brokering the peace. As commanders plan for the 2008 reduction in troops, they must try to reconcile these competing explanations and find a way to sustain the success when there are fewer—or no—American soldiers on the streets.
In a press conference... Thursday, Lt. Gen. Ray Odierno expressed cautious optimism about the trends, calling them "positive" but not "irreversible." He also took credit, saying the statistics "represen[t] the longest continuous decline in attacks on record and illustrat[e] how our operations have improved security since the surge was emplaced." Clearly, U.S. security operations are having an effect in Baghdad and beyond. Sectarian violence and insurgent activity in Baghdad has been tamped down by the aggressive U.S. strategy of basing troops in Iraqi neighborhoods and patrolling them on foot. Where we have sufficient troops to control the ground, the violence is down. That's no surprise.
But where we don't have sufficient troops, as in volatile Diyala province north and east of Baghdad, violence remains high.... The large northern city of Kirkuk, a powder keg of Kurdish and Iraqi Arab residents, continues to see... significant insurgent activity. Over the past few months, Tal Afar and Mosul... have also seen spasms of deadly violence. As a general rule, where Sunnis, Shiites, or Kurds live in close proximity and we have too few American troops on the ground, violence persists.
In fact, American forces don't control very much in Iraq. Rather, we influence events there by our presence and activities, and we exploit opportunities where they arise. Though our commanders may take credit for the reductions in violence over the past few months, this recognition is misplaced. Our paltry force of 169,000 contributed to an improved security situation, and likely catalyzed the Iraqi security forces to restore order in parts of Baghdad, but our security measures pale in comparison to the decisions by tribal leaders in Anbar and by Muqtada Sadr's militias to abstain from violence. Similarly, all the Maliki government's entreaties and statements
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