By ROBERT H. REID, Associated Press Writer 40 minutes ago
The assassination Thursday of the leader of the Sunni Arab revolt against al-Qaida militants dealt a setback to one of the few success stories in U.S. efforts to stabilize Iraq, but tribesmen in Anbar province vowed not to be deterred in fighting the terror movement.
American and Iraqi officials hoped the death of Abdul-Sattar Abu Risha would not stall the campaign to drive al-Qaida in Iraq from the vast province spreading west of Baghdad and reconcile Sunnis with the Shiite-led national government.
It was the biggest blow to the Anbar tribal alliance since a suicide bomber killed four anti-al-Qaida sheiks as they met in a Baghdad hotel in June. Abu Risha himself had escaped a suicide attack in February. But those attacks and others did not stop the campaign against al-Qaida.
Abu Risha, head of the Anbar Awakening Council who met with President Bush just 10 days earlier, died when a roadside bomb exploded near his home just west of Ramadi as he returned from his farm, police Col. Tareq Youssef said. Two bodyguards and the driver also were killed.
Moments later a car bomb exploded nearby but caused no casualties. An Interior Ministry spokesman, Maj. Gen. Abdul-Karim Khalaf, said the second bomb was intended as a backup in case Abu Risha escaped the first blast.
The attack occurred one year after the goateed, charismatic, chain-smoking young sheik organized 25 Sunni Arab clans into an alliance against al-Qaida in Iraq, seeking to drive the terror movement from sanctuaries where it had flourished after the U.S.-led invasion in 2003.
No group claimed responsibility for the assassination, but it was widely assumed to have been carried out by al-Qaida, which already had killed four of Abu Risha's brothers and six other relatives for working with the U.S. military.
U.S. officials credit Abu Risha and allied sheiks with a dramatic improvement in security in such Anbar flashpoints as Fallujah and Ramadi after years of American failure to subdue the extremists. U.S. officials now talk of using the Anbar model to organize tribal fighters elsewhere in Iraq.
Abu Risha's allies as well as U.S. and Iraqi officials insisted the assassination would not deter them from fighting al-Qaida, and the tribal alliance appears to have gained enough momentum to survive the loss of a single figure, no matter how key. Late Thursday, Abu Risha's brother, Ahmed, was selected to replace him as head of the council.
Still, the loss of such a charismatic leader is bound to complicate efforts to recruit more tribal leaders in the war against the terror network. Two Pentagon officials, speaking on condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to speak about the matter, said the assassination sent a chilling message about the consequences of cooperating with the Americans.
"This is a criminal act and al-Qaida is behind it," said Sheik Jubeir Rashid, a senior member of Abu Risha's council. "We have to admit that it is a major blow to the council. But we are determined to strike back and continue our work. Such attack was expected, but this will not deter us."
Ali Hatem al-Sulaiman, deputy chief of the province's biggest Sunni tribe, said that if "only one small boy remains alive in Anbar, we will not hand the province over to al-Qaida."
Islamic extremist Web sites praised the killing in a flurry of postings, one of which called Abu Risha "one of the biggest pigs of the Crusaders," meaning the Americans. Another said Abu Risha would spend the Muslim holy month of Ramadan "in the pits of hell."
Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki, a Shiite who had been reluctant to support Abu Risha, expressed "great sorrow" over the killing, but said he was confident "that this criminal act will strengthen the determination of Anbar people to wipe out the terrorists."
During a visit Sept. 3 to al-Asad Air Base, Bush hailed the courage of Abu Risha and others "who have made a decision to reject violence and murder in return for moderation and peace."
"I'm looking forward to hearing from the tribal leaders who led the fight against the terrorists and are now leading the effort to rebuild their communities," Bush said. "I'm going to reassure them that America does not abandon our friends, and America will not abandon the Iraqi people."
In his appearance before Congress this week to testify about the situation in Iraq, the top U.S. military commander, Gen. David Petraeus, often cited the recent success in Anbar of the forces organized by Abu Risha, and he called the leader's killing tragic.
"It's a terrible loss for Anbar province and all of Iraq," Petraeus said in a statement released in Washington. "It shows how significant his importance was and it shows al-Qaida in Iraq remains a very dangerous and barbaric enemy. He was an organizing force that did help organize alliances and did help keep the various tribes together."
Bush spokeswoman Dana Perino said Abu Risha "was one of the first to come forward to want to work with the United States to repel al-Qaida."
She said U.S. officials would "redouble our efforts" to work with local Iraqis to build support against those behind such killings. "There has been a complete shift in attitude over the past year or so and we have to capitalize on that," Perino said.
It was unclear how the killers managed to penetrate the web of security which protected Abu Risha, suggesting someone in his clan might have turned against him.
Abu Risha, who was in his mid-30s, lived in a walled compound of several villas that were home to him and his extended family, across the street from the largest U.S. military base in Ramadi. Within the walls were camels, other animals and palm trees, which he showed off to visitors.
He spent his days meeting with tribal sheiks, discussing the fate of Anbar and al-Qaida. He was constantly busy, with lines of people waiting to speak to him, and took endless calls on his cell phone.
He smoked profusely and drank endless glasses of sweet tea. He carried a pistol, usually stuck in a holster strapped around his waist, and dressed in traditional flowing robes and headdresses.
Many Ramadi residents reacted with shock and sadness, calling Abu Risha a "hero" who helped pacify their city.
"We were able to reopen our shops and send our children back to school," said Alaa Abid, who owns an auto parts store. "Now we're afraid that the black days of al-Qaida will return to our city."
A U.S. general, meanwhile, said a fatal attack on the headquarters garrison of the American military in Iraq this week was carried out with 240 mm rocket ? a type of weapon that he said Iran provides to Shiite extremists.
One person was killed and 11 were wounded in the attack Tuesday outside Baghdad at Camp Victory, which includes the headquarters of Multinational Forces-Iraq.
Maj. Gen. Kevin Bergner said the rocket was launched from the Rasheed district of west Baghdad, which he said was infiltrated by breakaway factions of the Mahdi Army militia of Muqtada al-Sadr.
Displaying a twisted piece of shrapnel from the attack, Bergner said military experts had so far determined only that its markings and manufacture were "consistent with" Iranian-produced munitions.
"Can I hold up a piece of fragment today that has a specific marking on it that traces this back to Iranian making?" he said. "At this moment I can't do that, but explosive experts ? as I said ? are still analyzing all the different fragments that they have gathered."
The anti-war crowd, meanwhile, which includes leaders of the Democratic Party, continues to voice the theme of defeat and to press for American withdrawal from Iraq.
To discuss the success of the surge, and the mentality of those who yearn for our failure in Iraq, Frontpage Symposium has assembled a distinguished panel. Our guests are:
Lt. Gen. Tom McInerney, the co-author with Maj. Gen. Paul Vallely of Endgame: The Blueprint for Victory in the War on Terror. He is a retired Air Force Fighter Pilot who has been a Fox News Military Analyst for the last four and a half years and continues to appear regularly on Fox. He returned from his second visit to Iraq in December, 2005.
Andy McCarthy, a former federal prosecutor and a senior fellow at link href="http://www.defenddemocracy.org/">the Foundation for the Defense of Democracieslink href="http://www.defenddemocracy.org/">. He prosecuted the Blind Sheik and his organization for seditious conspiracy in 1995.
and
Lt. Gen. Ion Mihai Pacepa, the highest official ever to have defected from the Soviet bloc. In 1989, Ceausescu and his wife were executed at the end of a trial where most of the accusations had come word-for-word out of Pacepa's book link href="http://www.amazon.com/gp/product/0895267462/102-2740221-8059325?v=glance&n=283155">Red Horizons, republished in 27 countries. Pacepa’s new book, link href="http://www.amazon.com/Programmed-Kill-Harvey-Kennedy-Assassination/dp/1566637619/ref=sr_1_2/103-6260968-8101453?ie=UTF8&s=books&qid=1183013830&sr=8-2">Programmed to Kill: Lee Harvey Oswald, the Soviet KGB, and the Kennedy Assassination, is due out in November.
FP: Andy McCarthy, Mike Pacepa and Lt. Gen. Tom McInerney, welcome to Frontpage Symposium.Lt. Gen. Tom McInerney, let’s begin with you.
Tell us your thoughts about the recent developments in Iraq and what you find significant in Gen. Petraeus’ testimony.
McInerney: The surge is working. However, there is still a long way to go but it means that Gen Paetraeus’s Counter Insurgency Strategy is viable and in the long term can bring victory.
Victory means that we can have a stable Iraq with a moderate government but not necessarily a Jefferson Democracy. Before I go further I am delighted to be on this panel with such esteemed colleagues and look forward to the discussion.
The most important recent developments have been the enormous damage done to Al Qaeda in Iraq (AQI) as well as the Sunni Sheiks in Al Anbar Province moving over to the Coalition side.
Ramadi, a former AQI stronghold, is no longer a contested Provincial Capital (35 daily attacks in Feb to less than 1 on average). In my wildest dreams I would not have predicted such a dramatic drop.
We control almost 60% of Baghdad now and are moving very successfully in other contested areas. In Mosul, Iraqi soldiers recently killed the AQI emir of Mosul known as Safi and two others. Last week we killed one of the most senior AQI leaders al Badri who was the mastermind behind 2006 Samarra mosque bombing that ignited the sectarian violence.
In May and June 26 AQI leaders were killed which means that the local intelligence and tips are very accurate. There has been a substantial drop in sectarian murders and attacks in Baghdad since January and record numbers arms of caches discovered.
Our Provincial Reconstruction Teams are making significant progress but much needs to be done in job creation and economic development. The Maliki Government is not doing its job in my opinion for the people. Now I do not want to sound too optimistic as we still have a very long and hard fight in front of us as I previously mentioned. But we are now using the correct operational strategy with the exception of Iran. We are now facing an Iranian surge to counter our efforts and we still have not taken the corrective actions to counter their surge but more about this later.
Pacepa: I fully agree with Lt. Gen. McInerney’s view that we can win the war in Iraq. But for that to happen we should remove the war from the hands of the politicians who are now using it to promote themselves. War is a matter of life and death. It cannot be approved today and disapproved tomorrow.
The Democratic leaders of the Congress are using the war in Iraq to win elections, not to defeat America’s enemy. Monday, when Gen. Petraeus appeared in front of the U.S. Congress, House Armed Services Committee Chairman Ike Skelton opened the hearing by saying that Petraeus is “almost certainly the right man for the job in Iraq, but he's the right person three years too late.” Democratic representative Robert Wexler pronounced this year's troop increase a failure. And Democratic presidential candidate Sen. Chris Dodd, who was not present at the hearing, issued a statement saying that "the fact that there are questions about General Petraeus' report is not surprising given that it was brought to you by this White House. In contrast, independent report after report indicates that the whack-a-mole strategy has made this the bloodiest summer of the war."
We should put the war in Iraq where it belongs. It is not the President’s war. It is not the Pentagon’s war. It is America’s war, authorized by 296 House members and 76 senators. Americans are patriotic. Millions of them have started their lives from scratch?as I did?for the privilege of becoming citizens of this great country and no one wants to see America lose again. The Vietnam War was one humiliation too many.
We also need a political strategy to unite America, not to divide it. A strategy that will make the Iraqi people trust America and motivate them to do what the Germans and the Japanese did after World War II: break with the tyrannical past, and rebuild their country to fit into the modern word.
FP: But Lt. Gen. Pacepa, what kind of political strategy are you talking about exactly? For argument’s sake, let me ask this: is it not a bit complicated to enter into the Islamic-Arab and to get people to “break” with a tyrannical past when large segments of the culture and religion want absolutely nothing to do with democracy or freedom and also completely reject and despise modernity? This is a very big challenge. What are your thoughts on this? Moreover, expand a bit on your own reading of the war at the moment.
Pacepa: The Cold War was also complicated, but we won it. “It takes a lot of fire and heat to make a piece of steel,” President Reagan used to say during the years he was forging his steely measures that helped America defeat the impenetrable Soviet empire and win the Cold War. Reagan started by defining the “Evil Empire,” and by masterfully uniting the Free World in a joint front against it. Having done that, Reagan confronted the tyrants in the Kremlin from all imaginable directions: increased the U.S. arms production; depressed the value of Soviet oil export; backed anti-Soviet insurgencies; financed anti-communist publications in the West; created various NATO-oriented cultural organizations secretly backed by the CIA. According to Peter Schweitzer, who authored Reagan’s War, these initiatives “were costing Moscow some $45 billion a year?a crippling sum for a nation with only $32 billion a year in hard-currency earnings.” [1] Soviet Foreign Minister Andrei Gromyko summed it all up: “Comrades, this man has a nice smile, but he has teeth of iron.”
The current stage of our war in Iraq is quite similar to the old Cold War. Both were ignited by murderous tyrants, both were aimed at crushing freedom, and both were intended to expand totalitarianism around the world. Thus, the strategy for wining the war in Iraq should be based, in my view, on the strategy that helped us win the Cold War. That means: create political unity at home, and persuade the rest of the Free World to support us; maintain strong military pressure on the enemy; undermine its economic and financial power; compromise its unity through intelligence means; and unleash crushing ideological offensives to ruin the tyrants’ credibility with their own people.
My reading of the war at the moment? I agree with Lt. Gen. McInerney that we are, finally, on the right track. The surprising trip to Iraq made by French foreign minister Bernard Kouchner validates my view. “It is of symbolic significance,” a French official told Time, “but you often open the door to concrete chance by first taking symbolic positions.” [2] Germany also abandoned the Moscow-Berlin-Paris Axis built by President Putin in 2003 to prevent the U.S. from overthrowing Saddam Hussein, and it is now moving behind us.
Iran’s efforts to build nuclear weapons and its increased support given to al-Qaeda terrorists who are operating in Iraq are also playing on our side. Germany, France and other EU nations are considering providing forces to support US-sponsored militaristic actions against Iran’s government, according to Sir Malcolm Leslie Rifkind, the patron of the British Tory Reform Group.
FP: Fair enough, my friend. There are certainly many lessons we can draw from our victory in the Cold War to our fight against radical Islam. What worries me, however, is that there are certain fundamental differences between Islamic jihadists and communists. One of them is that communists were and are interested in self-preservation – Muslim fanatics are not. Many of the tactics of jihadists are also different from what we knew in the Cold War. A religion is involved in this one, and the means of terror are something far different. People who were stuck under communist tyranny wanted to be liberated. What is of concern is that many Muslims who crave Sharia want nothing to do with democracy and modernity – and yearn for gender apartheid and obedience to a supreme deity and tot a totalitarian state.
Andrew McCarthy, go ahead sir.
McCarthy: Thanks, Jamie?and let me add that it is a privilege to be in such august company.
Given the stage of our discussion as you throw it to me, it’s timely that I’ve just read a post by our friend and my FDD colleague Cliff May (at The Corner on NRO) called “Analogy as Anasthesia.” Cliff was reacting to a Washington Post op-ed by Philip Gordon which also urged the Cold War as a useful model for how we should fight the war against jihadism. The fact that Lt. Gen. Pacepa and Philip Gordon agree, as I do, on the bottom line that the Cold War is a good analogy but appear to disagree about exactly what the analogy instructs makes Cliff’s point: Analogies are of much more utility in thinking about the broad strokes than the details.
Analogies tie together things that are similar, not the same. Here the similarities are, as Lt. Gen. Pacepa points out, that this is a long-term, complex struggle and it needs a multi-faceted political, military, law-enforcement, intelligence and ideological response. But the differences are very important. That doesn’t make Lt. Gen. Pacepa wrong, I think he’s right. But it underscores the challenges we face. We do need a coherent ideological response to jihadism, but that requires getting past our ingrained reluctance to scrutinize Islam and recognize the role it undoubtedly plays in galvanizing our enemies. The fact that it is hard to imagine doing that does not make it any less necessary.
Similarly, we do need national unity?to move into the main topic of our discussion, the surge demonstrates that, given the right troop deployments and rules of engagement, we can win in Iraq; but even as our spectacular military makes progress there, we are losing the war at home, where the enemy and its sympathizers have made great inroads in the media, the academy, the commentariat and even the courts (which have turned the concept of due process into an offensive weapon to be used by captured jihadists). Again, the fact that national unity is hard to envision at this point does not make having it any less necessary.
I couldn’t agree more with Lt. Gen. Pacepa’s assessment that this is America’s war?all of us as a nation. That’s why one of the most depressing things I read this year was the opinion of Judge Anna Diggs Taylor, purporting to invalidate the NSA’s Terrorist Surveillance Program. (I wrote about it here; she was later reversed.) It wasn’t so much the very poorly reasoned ruling as that her opinion, transparently, was an anti-war polemic, referring to the conflict as “the War on Terror of this administration”?not of the American people, but of President George W. Bush. Judge Taylor is a Carter appointee, and she was speaking, I’m afraid, for a depressingly large and energized plurality of Americans. I wish I could say I saw that situation changing, but I don’t, and it’s very hard to fight a long ideological war, where constancy and coherence are so important, with such deep opposition?pouring out not from a fringe but from our elites.
Not surprisingly, I agree with Tom’s assessment of our military progress?and am heartened by it because he is so much more competent than I am to evaluate it. I am concerned, though, that we have spent too much time conflating (a) the political disposition of Iraq, and democracy in particular, with American interest in Iraq, and (b) victory in Iraq with victory in the war on terror. In many ways, I think it’s welcome that the surge is bringing these problems to a head. It forces us to confront the fact that democratizing an Islamic society is a very subordinate goal as far as our national security is concerned?we should never make it our controlling aim. It also shows that this is, as Michael Ledeen has maintained for years, a regional (if not a global) war, Iran’s dark hand has been behind it all along, and it makes very little strategic or tactical sense to view Iraq and Afghanistan as the whole war which we need to draw down from rather than two theaters in a larger struggle in which our work is far from done. Indeed, while I've found Gen. Petraeus' congressional testimony very impressive, I've been struck (as I discuss in this NRO piece) by the dissonance between, on the one hand, his candid presentation of the blatant and increasing belligerence Iran is exhibiting in Iraq (particularly against our forces) and, on the other, the State Department's mulish insistence that we are on a trajectory toward and Iraq at peace with its neighbors.
FP: Lt. Gen. Tom McInerney, your turn sir. Kindly respond to the themes being discussed. I would also like you to touch on Hillary Clinton and other Democrats recently admitting that the surge is working but at the same time still wanting us to leave Iraq prematurely. This very much exposes them for who they are and what they desire, doesn’t it?
McInerney: Not surprisingly I agree with both Gen. Pacepa’s and Andrew comments in general but would like to flesh out their thoughts further.
We do need to unify America and it will not be easy. However to assist, I would change the name of the GWOT to the Global War Against Radical Islam (GWARI) so people know why we fight and who we fight.
I would emphasize that we are not fighting a religion but an ideology as evil as Nazism, Fascism, and Communism. Gen. Pacepa’s eloquent description of how we defeated Communism should be duplicated in spades. We have been sadly lacking in this regard especially communicating to the American people why we fight. Unfortunately the President misjudged his election victory in 2004 and thought America knew why we fight and stopped responding to his critics as well as getting other leaders to assist. Bush Lied People Died became a false reality equal to Joseph Goebbels’ Big Lie. Fortunately President Reagan had a unified country during the Cold War but he was also a Great Communicator. However we take the cards we are dealt and must continue to counter Judge Taylor’s ridiculous rulings before it is too late. Now I do not believe the Surge will continue to be moderately successful until we institute a covert campaign against Iran and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). I will call this a Tit for Tat strategy. Simply stated for every explosively formed penetrator (EFP) that goes off in Iraq one goes off in Iran against IRGC military, political and economic targets. This coupled with a very aggressive embargo on international funds and the slow leak on drying up refined petrol from the United Arab Emirates will enable the Iranian people to take their country back.
On the political front remove the Mujahedin-e Khalq (MEK) and National Council of Resistance of Iran (NCRI) from the State Department’s terrorist list which will deeply disturb the Mullahs and continue to build a coalition of the willing designed to stop this Shiite Crescent from spreading across the Arabian Peninsula.
The surge is not only about defeating Al-Qaeda in Iraq (AQI) and other dissidents against a moderate Iraq but defeating Iran’s surge to dominate the Arabian Peninsula. We do get confused when we have Sunni, Shiite Sectarian violence mixed with indiscriminate AQI bombings but remember the threat is Radical Islam in different uniforms.Finally, Hillary Clinton and other Democratic leaders have gotten so far left that they must continue to raise the bar for success which I believe has identified them as wanting defeat as an outcome. Consequences are never discussed and there is a great danger that they have overplayed their hand. Jack Murtha's description of the Haditha incident has been disproven after it went through a lengthy legal process. This will come home to roost at some time in the future I believe. We clearly are having problems getting the political process in Iraq and the region moving as effectively as we got NATO to move during the Cold War but we must put greater effort. France’s symbolic gesture has important potential but we must hurry. Unfortunately I don’t think Maliki has it in him but that is a discussion for later.
Pacepa: It is a privilege for me to participate to such an in-depth discussion. Let me start with Andy McCarthy’s analogies. They are right on the money. The Cold War and the Iraq War are far from being identical. But they are similar. In both wars our enemies were armed with Kalashnikovs and Katyusha rockets. And in both wars our enemies were indoctrinated by Moscow to hate Americans. In 1972, Yury Andropov, the first KGB chairman to be enthroned in the Kremlin, tasked the Soviet bloc intelligence community to transform Palestinian anti-Semitism into an armed anti-American doctrine throughout the whole Islamic world. A billion adversaries could inflict far greater damage on America than a million could,” he told me. Our task was to portray the U.S. as a Zionist country dedicated to converting the Islamic world into a Jewish colony. The KGB chairman explained that Islamic cultures would be uniquely receptive to our goals. They had a taste for nationalism, jingoism and victimology. Their oppressed mobs could be whipped up to a fever pitch. Terrorism and violence against “Zionist America” would flow naturally from their religious fervor.
Sounds familiar?
We do not have an instrument to measure the results of intelligence influence operations. But over the course of thirty-some years the Soviet bloc community spread millions of Protocols of the Elders of Zion (a tsarist Russian forgery that had become the basis for much of Hitler’s anti-Semitic philosophy) in the Islamic world. It also sent thousands of influence agents to the same area, tasked to portray the U.S. as a country intent on subjugating the world to Jewish interests. It is safe to presume that this combined effort must have played a role in generating the hatred for America that is now screamed forth across the Islamic world.
This brings me to Lt. Gen. McInerney’s conclusion that we should address Radical Islam as an evil ideology, not as a religion. He is utterly right. It is extremely encouraging that our military surge is working. But the rockets that ended the Cold War had been fired by Radio Free Europe, not by American military forces.
Now down to Jamie’s question about Hillary Clinton and the other Democrats who voted for the War in Iraq before condemning it and who now admit that link href="http://www.frontpagemag.com/Articles/Read.aspx?GUID=D77E4144-9433-4517-B1B4-05F9D6BAA345">the surge is working but still want to abandon Iraq to al-Qaeda terrorists. In my view, they are political lilliputians, and should be treated as such. They do not deserve to lead our country. For them, America is a “dispensable nation.” For the rest of us, America is the economic and the military leader of the world. The number of people trying to become Americans has never been higher. The new leaders of France, Germany and Great Britain are looking to America for leadership. They know their countries cannot alone establish an international or even a regional balance of power. They also know they cannot manage a confrontation with al-Qaeda, Russia, China or even Iran without U.S. help.
Josef Joffe, the chief editor of Germany’s weekly Die Zeit, took his time to explain, in a recent piece for the Wall Street Journal, what would happen once the last Blackhawk took off from Baghdad International: “Iran advances to No.1, completing its nuclear program undeterred. … Syria reclaims Lebanon, which it has always labeled as part of the ‘Great Syria.’ Hezbollach and Hamas, both founded and equipped by Tehran, resume their war against Israel. Russia, extruded from the Middle East by adroit Kissingerian diplomacy in the 1970s, rebuilds its anti-Western alliances. In Iraq war escalates, unleashing even more torrents of refugees and provoking outside intervention, if not partition.”
Joffe summed it all up: “Withdrawal cannot serve America’s interests on the day after tomorrow. Friends and foes will ask: If this superpower doesn’t care about the world’s central and most dangerous stage?what will it care about?” [1]
No wonder Joffe will be teaching foreign policy at Stanford University this fall.
FP: Thanks, Lt. Gen Pacepa. Before we move forward, could you kindly elaborate a bit on the Protocols of the Elders of Zion that you just mentioned? They are now popping up all around the world, arousing new anti-American sentiments. “Death to American ZOG” signs were recently carried by demonstrators in France and Germany. The abbreviation “ZOG,” from Zionist Occupation Government, has now become an anti-American symbol both for leftist Europeans and for radical Islamists.
Can you shed some light on this phenomenon?
Pacepa: With pleasure, Jamie. It is indeed a subject of great current concern. The general perception is that Germany was the cradle of contemporary anti-Semitism. But before we had the word Holocaust we had the Russian word pogrom, meaning massacre. An official Russian dictionary of 1939 defines pogrom as the government-organized mass slaughter of some element of the population as a group, such as the Jewish pogroms in tsarist Russia. [2] Russia’s first major pogrom against the Jews took place on April 15, 1881, in the Ukrainian town of Yelisavetgrad.
Totalitarianism always requires a tangible enemy.
The Protocols was compiled by the tsarist political police, the Okhrana, to compromise Russia’s Jewish minister of finance, Sergey Witte, who wanted to modernize the country. The author of the Protocols was an Okhrana disinformation expert, Petr Ivanovich Rachovsky, who was assigned to France at that time and had been inspired by the enormous wave of anti-Semitism aroused by the Dreyfus controversy.[3] Rachovsky lifted most of his text from an obscure, 1864 French satire called Dialogue aux Enfers entre Machiavel et Montesquieu (Dialogue in Hell Between Machiavelli and Montesquieu), written by Maurice Joly and accusing Emperor Napoleon III of plotting to seize all the powers in French society. Rachovsky had essentially done nothing more than substitute the words the world for France and the Jews for Napoleon III.
To disguise its hand, the Okhrana claimed the Protocols to be the minutes of the first Zionist Congress (held in Basel, Switzerland in 1897), at which the Jews had allegedly plotted to take over the world.
The Protocols are one of the most resilient pieces of disinformation in history. In 1921, the Times of London published a devastating exposure of the forgery by printing extracts from the Protocols side-by-side with the passages from the Joly book that had been plagiarized. [4] That did not stop the Protocols from becoming the basis for much of Hitler’s anti-Semitic philosophy as expressed in Mein Kampf, written in 1923. In fact, Nazi Germany later translated the Protocols into many languages and flooded the world with them to support its allegation that there was a Jewish conspiracy aimed at world domination, and to demonstrate that the persecution of Jews was a necessary self-defense for Germany.
After the Soviet Union collapsed, the Protocols began infecting Russia itself. The state-controlled Orthodox Church, alleging Jewish plans to overthrow Christianity in Russia, started printing the Protocols and selling them to the population. In October 1998 Albert Makashov, a retired Soviet general and member of the Duma, called for the “extermination of all Jews in Russia,” after insinuating that they were being paid by American Zionism. [5] On November 4, 1998, the Duma officially endorsed Makashov’s statement by voting (121-107) to defeat a parliamentary motion censuring his hate-filled statement. [6] On August 3, 2001, a letter from ninety-eight U.S. Senators expressing concern about the rise of anti-Semitism in the Russian Federation was sent to President Putin.
McCarthy: General Pacepa’s fascinating account of the Protocols, is proof positive of something I think we are all getting at: the ideological battle that must supplement the surge and other military battles if we are to be successful.
Let’s stipulate that the Soviet regime was reprehensible. Regardless, what Gen. Pacepa demonstrates here is that it understood the ideological battle more than we do. It was ruthlessly practical and brooked no such bunkum as political correctness to blind it to the pathologies of Islamic societies. It understood that because of Islam’s doctrinal and historical animus against Judaism, there would be receptiveness at a very visceral level to a fraud like the Protocols?and that even when proven untrue, the fraud would endure because (a) many Muslims want it to be true, and (b) there is rampant illiteracy and intellectual narrowness in much of the Islamic world (where it is thought sufficient to study the Qur’an to the exclusion of all else). Regrettably, it doesn’t much matter there what the Times of London says.
Unlike the Soviets, we take an “everything is beautiful” view of Islam?to the point even of issuing to every captive at Gitmo a copy of the Qur’an, notwithstanding that the terrorists to whom we are distributing that book believe it commands the murder of Americans. But there is a big difference between holding, as we do, that people have freedom of conscience (i.e., that you can believe anything you wish to believe), and holding, as we most certainly should not, that beliefs are none of our business if you hang a “religion” sign on them.
What Tom suggested before is absolutely true: we are facing an ideology that is every bit as dangerous as the ideologies we confronted and defeated in the 20th Century. Unfortunately, however, this particular ideology is different from Nazism or Communism in that it springs from a religious doctrine. We had not the slightest compunction about analyzing and refuting Das Kapital, Mein Kampf, or the other theoretical treatises on which our former totalitarian enemies based their systems. There is a reluctance, though, to examine the tenets of radical Islam because, like it or not, they are a literal reflection of Islamic doctrine. So we instead tell ourselves that terrorists must be perverting Muslim doctrine … while at the same time we hope for an Islamic reformation. But why would a reformation be necessary if there wasn’t a problem in the first place?
So I agree that we must acknowledge the true enemy and the broader nature of the war, especially where Iran is concerned. But it is equally necessary to understand, as the Soviets understood (and capitalized on), what animates this enemy. I am frankly not hopeful that we are capable of this. Islam rejects some of the central tenets of Western democracies: freedom of conscience, freedom of choice, equality under the law, etc. Yet, as we’ve tried to build new societies in Afghanistan and Iraq, we’ve maintained the centrality of Islam and Sharia in their new constitutions. That is a very powerful indication that we are not willing to deal with the nexus between Islam and terror.
McInerney: Gen. Pacepa and Andrew have clearly laid out some of our most important challenges in the psychological and ideological campaigns we face and how we counter these false hoods that have persisted for so many years as the Protocols demonstrates.
Again it is critical that we identify the threat as it is: Radical Islam -- an ideology not a religion. Unfortunately no governments describe it for what it is but call it terror.
Give me a break. We are confusing ourselves and now the new UK Government Home Secretary doesn’t even call the recent terrorists caught in Scotland terrorists but criminals. We must break through this nonsense if we are to win.
The Global War Against Radical Islam (GWARI) can only be won if Americans and our allies understand the threat and the consequences of our failure by leaving Iraq to Radical Islam where we have seen recent coalition success. The Surge is working militarily and even some significant success politically where we have seen Sunni tribes switch to supporting Coalition Forces in al Anbar and elsewhere without leadership from the Maliki Government. This realization that Radical Islam (AQI) is not for these Sunni tribes is huge and must not be trivialized. It is an important grass root step in the overall process of modernity catching on in the region.
Andrew rightly points out the nexus between Islam and terror (radical Islam as we must call it) must be recognized but there is a glimmer of hope. There is also a glimmer of hope that America is starting to see victory is not only possible but necessary. Unfortunately the likes of Senator John Warner are not reinforcing this and most Democrats are still wedded to defeat. However the consequences of a Shiia Radical Islam driven by Iran are starting to sink in the region and the potential of a coalition of the willing is increasing. President Bush must pull out all his resources to convince America and our allies of the consequences of the Middle East falling to Radical Islam. Gen Petraeus has ample evidence to give the President and the Congress if they will remove the political calculus and listen to his report. If they don’t I believe we are revisiting July 1939 and the dreadful results of WWII will be duplicated in far greater scale.
Pacepa: I fully agree with Andy McCarthy and Lt. Gen. McInerney: the war is President Bush’s to win. And it seems he intends to do just that. “We’re kicking ass” in Iraq, he now tells his Australian hosts. They applauded. So did the leaders of Great Britain, Germany, France, Italy, Poland, Czech Republic, Slovakia, Romania, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Estonia. They all know that only American intelligence and military forces could protect their countries from today’s curse of international terrorism.
The Democratic leaders of the U.S. Congress are another matter. They are insinuating that President Bush and his military forces?not the terrorists?are America’s enemies. All but one Democratic contender for the White House originally voted to authorize the war, and all but one has now recanted that vote. None of them has moved a finger to help our troops win the war, but all allege that we have lost it, and all are disgracefully demanding we forget terrorism and bring our troops home.
The new congressional leaders are now also dumping on Gen. Petraeus, who is dedicated to winning the war in Iraq, by presenting him as “a mouthpiece for President Bush” that cannot be trusted. “The Bush report?” Senate Majority Whip Richard Durbin snorted, when asked about the upcoming report from the commander in Iraq. Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid and House Speaker Nancy Pelosi have also mocked the General’s upcoming briefing as “the Bush report.” [9]
The Democratic effort to denigrate Gen. Petraeus continued on Monday, when he appeared before the U.S. Congress to present his report. "The administration has sent you here today to convince the members of these two committees and the Congress that victory is at hand... I don't buy it," said House Foreign Affairs Committee Chairman Tom Lantos, a California Democrat, before the four-star general even started his report. [10]
What is wrong with Bush’s report? Our Constitution states that America’s military forces have only ONE commander-in-chief: the president of the United States. The head of state is also invariably commander-in-chief in the British Commonwealth and in most other relevant countries. In England, it is the sovereign. In Ireland, the president. In France, the president of the Republic also holds the official title of “Chef des Armées.” In Italy, the president of the Republic is not only “the commander of the armed forces” but also “chairman of the Supreme Defense Council.” In Germany, the chancellor is “commander of armed forces in time of war.” NATO is also run by commanders-in-chief, not by committees.
No war in history has been run by committees?much less by a 535-member committee. America’s founders gave the U.S. Congress the power to declare war, but not to conduct wars.
During World War II, 405,399 Americans died to fight Nazism and the Holocaust, but the country remained sturdily united around their commander-in-chief. America held national elections during that war, but no one running for office even thought about harming the country’s unity in a quest for personal victory. Afterwards, instead of abandoning its vanquished enemies, America, remained bonded to her commander-in-chief, rebuilt Western Europe and Japan as strong democracies, and transformed the United States into the leader of the Free World.
Last month Frontpagemag.com had over 14 million page views. That means a lot of readers. Let’s ask them to help America return to her old traditions. Let’s unite the country around her commander-in-chief, and take the time to transform Iraq into an ally. Otherwise it will be chaos: al-Qaeda will fill the vacuum left by our troops, the terrorist government of Iran will dominate the Islamic World, and Americans will soon be paying $9 per gallon of fuel.
McCarthy: The bunkum about “the Bush report” is even worse than Gen. Pacepa suggests. The pertinent legislation actually calls for a report from the president. Initially, Gen. Petreaus was not going to be brought to testify since what congress had called for was the president’s own assessment. Democrats, however, screamed for Petraeus, and the White House agreed to make him available. Having gotten what they wanted, the Left then changed course and claimed this brilliant, honorable, patriotic commander?a man who is manifestly nobody’s tool and nobody’s fool?was simply mouthing the gospel according to Bush. It is certainly fair to disagree with General Petraeus in good faith; it is preposterous to regard him as the puppet on the end of anyone’s string.
As I write this, the anniversary of 9/11 looms and I’ve just watched General Petraeus testify. How sad to see how much we have forgotten, how insouciant we’ve become about the real threats that we face, and how even the administration fighting the war has minitiarized it to the stabilization (or, idealistically, the democratization) of Iraq.
There are catalysts here that can continue to be ignored but won’t be denied unless they are defeated. Radical Islam is an ideology but it is also a religion. We call it “radical” because it comforts us to think of is as an aberration, but it is in fact an interpretation of Islam that is centuries old and adhered to today by tens of millions who share the goals of its most infamous acolytes even if they don’t have it in themselves to cross the line from belief to terrorist activism. Iran, in addition, is not going away. General Petraeus elucidated in his testimony what has long been known to careful analysts: the mullahs are getting bolder globally even as we portray the war as something fought in Iraq and Afghanistan (Iran being hyper-active in both theaters).
As we reach the anniversary of 9/11, many perceptive Americans ask if it will take another 9/11 before we are willing, clear-eyed, to appreciate what we are up against. Alas, it is a good question.
FP: Andy McCarthy, Mike Pacepa and Lt. Gen. Tom McInerney, thank you for joining Frontpage Symposium.
Notes:[1] Dave Eberhart, NewMax.com, June 10, 2004.
[2] Bruce Crumley, “ France ‘Turns the Page’ on Iraq,” TIME, August 20, 2007.
[3] Josef Joffe, “If Iraq Falls,” The Wall Street Journal, August 27, 2007, p. 11.
[4] POGROM. Government-organized, reactionary-chauvinistic uprising of the ruling classes, mass slaughter as a group of some element of the population, accompanied by murders, destruction and the plundering of properties. [Example:] Jewish pogroms in tsarist Russia. Tolkovyy Slovar Russkogo Yazyka (Explanatory Dictionary of the Russian Language), ed. B.M. Volin and D.N. Ushakov (Moscow: State Publishing House of Foreign and National Dictionaries, Moscow, 1939), Vol. III, p. 352.
[5] In 1894, French captain Alfred Dreyfus, a wealthy Alsatian Jew, was falsely sentenced for espionage by an anti-Semitic court and deported to Devil’s Island. Émile Zola, a leading supporter of Dreyfus, promptly published J’accuse, reproving the judges for their anti-Semitism. Zola was tried for libel but escaped to England. The violent partisanship over this case dominated French life for more than a decade.
[6] Philip Grave, “The Protocols: A Literary Forgery,” The Times, London, August 16, 17 and 18, 1921.
[7] “Duma Deputy calls for the Extermination of all Jews in Russia,” November 10, 1998, published at www.fsumonitor.com.
[8] Jean Mackenzie, “Anti-Semitism is resurfacing in Russia,” Boston Globe, November 8, 1998.
[9] S.A. Miller, “Dems already discount war report,” The Washington Times, September 6, 2007.
[10] Arshad Mohamed and Susan Cornwell, “Petraeus hearings starts with Democratic criticism,” Reuters, September 10, 2007, 1:11 PM
Things are going from bad to worse for al Qaeda in Iraq. The Jerusalem Post reports that coalition forces have killed another top al Qaeda leader -- Abu Usama al-Tunisi, the emir of foreign terrorists in Iraq and part of the inner leadership circle.
According to Brig. Gen. Joseph Anderson, recent coalition operations have helped cut in half the previous flow of foreign fighters into Iraq, which had been at about 60 to 80 a month. Through the increased level of operations conducted by our enlarged ground force, we've been able to push militants into the remote parts of the north and south of the country. Now, additional operations have been going after those pockets of fighters.
It looks as though September will have the lowest U.S. death toll in Iraq in 14 months. September also represents the fourth consecutive monthly decline in deaths of U.S. service personnel.
It seems remarkable that a strategy involving a more aggressive use of a larger number of troops could result in fewer fatalities, but that appears to be the case. I don't know how to explain it other than by the hypothesis that the surge has been even more successful in degrading enemy capabilities than has commonly been recognized.
The statistics show that 4,882 militants were killed in clashes with coalition forces this year, a 25% increase over all of last year.
The increase in enemy deaths this year reflects more aggressive tactics adopted by American forces and an additional 30,000 U.S. troops ordered by the White House this year.
U.S. and Iraqi forces launched several large offensives aimed at crippling al-Qaeda since the arrival of more troops starting in February. The U.S. military says, however, there has been an increase in suicide attacks in recent days.
The size of the insurgency in Iraq has been difficult to measure and is fluid, making it hard to determine what impact the deaths have had on the insurgency in Iraq.
Last year, Gen. John Abizaid, then commander of military forces in the region, estimated the Sunni insurgency to be 10,000 to 20,000 fighters. He said the Shiite militia members were in the "low thousands." The U.S. military hasn't publicly provided any recent estimates.
There are 25,000 detainees in U.S. military custody in Iraq, according to the military. The numbers of enemy killed and detained would exceed the estimate given last year of the size of the insurgency.
Since the insurgency began after Baghdad fell in spring 2003, 19,429 militants have been killed in clashes with coalition forces, statistics show. The numbers do not include enemy killed during the invasion.
The statistics, provided at USA TODAY's request, were retrieved from a coalition database that tracks "significant acts." Militants are identified in the database because they are linked to "hostile action," said Capt. Michael Greenberger, a Freedom of Information Act officer in Baghdad. There is no way to independently verify the data.
"The information in the database is only as good as the information entered into it by operators on the ground at the time," Greenberger said. "Follow-up information to make corrections is done whenever possible."
The U.S. military rarely discusses the numbers of enemy dead, fearful of raising parallels with the Vietnam War when the U.S. military's reliance on "body counts" led to allegations of inflated figures because of political pressure to show results.
Today, U.S. commanders consider the number of enemy deaths a poor measure of progress in an insurgency and say there is no pressure to exaggerate. "The big difference is the command climate in Vietnam encouraged inflation," said T.X. Hammes, a retired Marine colonel and insurgency expert. "The general command climate (in Iraq) is: 'Don't exaggerate.' "
The military's new counterinsurgency manual emphasizes political and economic solutions to eliminate the conditions that breed militants. Those actions are considered more decisive than combat.
"You can't kill them all," Maj. Gen. Benjamin Mixon, commander of the American division responsible for northern Iraq, said in a recent interview.
The insurgency has been a mixture of Sunni groups, such as al-Qaeda, and Shiite militia extremists.
The enemy casualty numbers also reinforce the one-sided nature of battles on occasions when militants attempted to directly confront American forces.
The deadliest month for militants was August 2004 when thousands of militia fighters loyal to Shiite cleric Muqtada al-Sadr clashed with American forces in Najaf in southern Iraq. That month, 1,623 militants were killed. The U.S. military lost 53 troops in fighting during the same time.
The Iraqi Army, with Americans along as advisors, captured two high-value al-Qaeda figures on Tuesday. One of them served as AQI's banker, pushing more than $50,000 per month into the terrorist network and possibly as much as $100 million during his tenure with the network:
Iraqi forces, with U.S. Special Forces as advisers, detained two individuals believed to be linked to the al-Qaeda in Iraq criminal network Oct. 2, near Baghdad. During one of the operations, Soldiers from the 6th Iraqi Army Division detained a suspected al-Qaeda financier in Kindi. The extremist financier is suspected of traveling to foreign countries to acquire financial support for terrorist activities and is suspected of supplying more than $50,000 to al-Qaeda each month. He is believed to have received $100,000,000 this summer from terrorist supporters who cross the Iraq border illegally or fly into Iraq from Italy, Syria and Egypt. The terrorist is linked to financing cells in Doura, Tarmiyah and Baqubah, and uses a leather merchant business as a front to smuggle weapons and explosives from surrounding countries. Intelligence shows he has stores in Fallujah, Syria and Jordan.
During one of the operations, Soldiers from the 6th Iraqi Army Division detained a suspected al-Qaeda financier in Kindi. The extremist financier is suspected of traveling to foreign countries to acquire financial support for terrorist activities and is suspected of supplying more than $50,000 to al-Qaeda each month. He is believed to have received $100,000,000 this summer from terrorist supporters who cross the Iraq border illegally or fly into Iraq from Italy, Syria and Egypt. The terrorist is linked to financing cells in Doura, Tarmiyah and Baqubah, and uses a leather merchant business as a front to smuggle weapons and explosives from surrounding countries. Intelligence shows he has stores in Fallujah, Syria and Jordan.
That might hurt AQI more than the loss of their leader, al-Tunisi, last month. The network already has had its lines of communication thoroughly disrupted and their ability to coordinate curtailed. A lack of funds coming into the network will mean even fewer resources to rebuild those connections. That translates to fewer attacks of declining effectiveness, great news for Iraqis and Americans.
It also could lead to more captures. According to the report, this man had responsibility for 30-40 terrorists, and paid them $3,000 for each successful attack. That indicates that (a) the primary motivation for the terrorists might be money rather than ideology, and (b) he can identify a large number of cells in the field. In fact, the announcement itself within two days of his capture might indicate that he's already talked, and that the Iraqis and the Americans have started rolling up those cells already. They will also be focusing on those international connections and tracking down the terror supporters who sent the cash.
And there's a bonus for this: the detainee also financed both Golden Dome attacks in Samarra, which nearly touched off a civil war. He also has direct responsibility for the deaths of three US soldiers in al-Mansour this past April. He's a great catch, and without doubt the Iraqis and Americans know exactly what to do with him.
Let's see how long it takes for this to get reported in the mainstream news media.
Pulling al-Qaeda's Lynchpins in Iraq Is Counterterrorism, Senator [Steve Schippert]
In a major development in the fight against al-Qaeda in Iraq, the United States has disclosed the Baghdad capture of a major al-Qaeda financier who funneled over $100,000,000 into Iraq this summer alone to fund al-Qaeda terrorists and purchase weapons and explosives.
Iraqi and US forces have detained a man they believe received 100 million dollars this summer from Al-Qaeda sympathisers to hand out for "terrorist" operations in Iraq, the US military said Thursday."The 100 million was what our intelligence reports indicate he has received spanning several months this year," US military spokesman Sam Hymas told AFP. "That is all the unclassified information I can give you."A statement from the military said the man, who was detained in the central Baghdad neighbourhood of Al-Kindi, was suspected of handing over 50,000 dollars a month to Al-Qaeda using his leather merchant business as a front."He is believed to have received one hundred million dollars this summer from terrorist supporters who cross the border illegally or fly into Iraq from Italy, Syria and Egypt," the military said.He is suspected of travelling abroad himself to seek money for Al-Qaeda and of employing up to 50 extremists to help deliver bomb-making materials to insurgents attacking the US-led coalition.
This news comes on the heels of information released yesterday that US forces killed the al-Qaeda Emir of the Iraq/Syria Border, 'Muthanna,' in an operation back on September 11. Hundreds of documents were obtained after his death. Among them was a list of about 500 men recruited to fight with al-Qaeda in Iraq. Among the names were 143 detailed biographies.
"Muthanna was the emir of Iraq and Syrian border area and he was a key facility of the movement of foreign terrorists once they crossed into Iraq from Syria. He worked closely with Syrian-based al Qaeda foreign terrorist facilitators," he said.Bergner told a news conference that the information discovered included 143 biographies of foreign recruits, with personal data, photographs, their recruiters' names, date of entry into Iraq and the route they took."They came from a range of foreign countries that included Libya, Morocco, Syria, Algeria, Oman, Yemen, Tunisia, Egypt, Jordan, Saudi Arabia, Belgium, France and the United Kingdom," he said. "In other documents that we found included a formal pledge from foreign terrorists who were committed to suicide operations," Bergner said.
"Muthanna was the emir of Iraq and Syrian border area and he was a key facility of the movement of foreign terrorists once they crossed into Iraq from Syria. He worked closely with Syrian-based al Qaeda foreign terrorist facilitators," he said.Bergner told a news conference that the information discovered included 143 biographies of foreign recruits, with personal data, photographs, their recruiters' names, date of entry into Iraq and the route they took."They came from a range of foreign countries that included Libya, Morocco, Syria, Algeria, Oman, Yemen, Tunisia, Egypt, Jordan, Saudi Arabia, Belgium, France and the United Kingdom," he said.
"In other documents that we found included a formal pledge from foreign terrorists who were committed to suicide operations," Bergner said.
One curious detail considering the release of news today that a major al-Qaeda financier has been capture: Among the documents obtained from Muthanna's person were detailed expense reports.
The captured al-Qaeda financier brought funds into Iraq from sources outside the country, using Syria as the primary conduit for the terrorists bringing in the resources. Muthanna was in charge of terrorist transport and ingress from Syria into Iraq. The financier was captured after the intelligence trove obtained after Muthanna's killing (presumably, as no specific timeframe for the capture was announced.)
What we have are two major al-Qaeda assets rolled up ? one still alive to tell more ? and the principal conduits for al-Qaeda's human and financial resources import infrastructure seriously downgraded.
And just a few short moths ago, Sen. Charles Schumer demanded that the United States withdraw our military forces to the periphery and vacate the heart of Iraq in order to "change our mission and focus it more narrowly on counterterrorism, [and go] after al Qaeda camps that might arise in Iraq."
Withdrawing and waiting for an unfettered al-Qaeda to establish camps and brutally dominate Iraqi cities while doing so is not counterterrorism. It's insanity and, furthermore, completely dismissive of the security, safety, and wellbeing of the Iraqi people. Dropping huts and buildings of a terrorist training camp are not signs of effective counterterrorism.
The latest developments above surely confirm, "This Is Counterterrorism, Senator." The elimination of safe havens, the high rate of AQI foot-soldiers dying in our offensive ground operations, and the rolling up of leadership elements cannot be mistaken for anything else.
By Griff WitteWashington Post Foreign ServiceWednesday, October 3, 2007; A01
PESHAWAR, Pakistan -- Pakistan's government is losing its war against emboldened insurgent forces, giving al-Qaeda and the Taliban more territory in which to operate and allowing the groups to plot increasingly ambitious attacks, according to Pakistani and Western security officials.
The depth of the problem has become clear only in recent months, as regional peace deals have collapsed and the government has deferred developing a new strategy to defeat insurgents until Pakistan's leader, Gen. Pervez Musharraf, can resolve a political crisis that threatens his presidency.
Meanwhile, radical Islamic fighters who were evicted from Afghanistan by the 2001 U.S.-led invasion have intensified a ruthless campaign that has consumed Pakistan's tribal areas and now affects its major cities. Military officials say the insurgents have enhanced their ability to threaten not only Pakistan but the United States and Europe as well.
"They've had a chance to regroup and reorganize," said a Western military official in Pakistan. "They're well equipped. They're clearly getting training from somewhere. And they're using more and more advanced tactics."
Pakistan's military, on the other hand, is considering pulling back from the fight -- at least partially -- in the face of mounting losses, the official said.
"They're not trained for a counterinsurgency. It's not their number one priority. It's not even their number two priority," said the official, who spoke on condition of anonymity. "These are the reasons things aren't going their way."
Pakistani military officials concede they are searching for a new strategy now that the old one has gone awry. But with Musharraf struggling to stay in office and expected to soon step down from the military, no decisions are likely until questions over the country's leadership are settled.
"The federal government is busy with its problem of legitimacy. Getting Musharraf elected for another five years -- that is keeping everything on hold," said retired Brig. Gen. Mehmood Shah, who until 2005 was a top security official in the tribal areas.
In recent years, Pakistan has relied on deals with insurgents to keep them from launching offensives. But two such agreements -- in North and South Waziristan -- fell apart this summer when insurgent leaders abruptly announced they were backing out.
The main criticism of the deals, both in Pakistan and in the West, had been that they gave al-Qaeda and the Taliban sanctuary in which to train, plot and launch attacks.
Now, security experts say Pakistan is paying the price for not confronting the problem head-on, with insurgent groups capitalizing on their newfound strength.
Last month, a suicide bomber attacked a bus carrying workers with the nation's hugely influential spy agency, Inter-Services Intelligence, killing 22 people. Just a week later, a bomber reportedly wearing a military uniform breached one of the most secure army installations in the country, where elite commandos train. The assailant detonated his explosives in the officers' mess during dinnertime, leaving 17 soldiers dead.
The latest blows came Monday, when a suicide bomber killed 15 people, including four policemen, in the northwestern town of Bannu. Late Monday night, more than 20 Frontier Corps troops went missing after their post near Bannu came under attack.
The insurgent strikes represent a humiliating breakdown in security for the world's sixth-largest army. But most embarrassing is the fact that about 250 soldiers remain in Taliban hands more than a month after they were taken hostage.
The soldiers were traveling in a supply convoy through the hostile terrain of South Waziristan on Aug. 30 when their route was blocked by a group of local fighters. Although they were vastly outnumbered, the fighters managed to persuade the soldiers to surrender without firing a shot. Since then, the government has been unable to win the soldiers' freedom because the Taliban is seeking major concessions.
"This kidnapping is a lesson to the government to honor its peace deal with us," said Zulfiqar Mehsud, a spokesman for the Taliban, which blames the government for violating the agreement. Mehsud's group wants to transform Pakistan into a radical Islamic state modeled after Afghanistan before the 2001 U.S.-led invasion.
The troops' surrender has called into question the army's commitment to fighting an unpopular war that requires Pakistanis to kill their countrymen. It has also exposed the army to ridicule.
"In Waziristan, people are laughing at the army," said Lateef Afridi, a tribal elder and lawyer. "I really feel pity for these soldiers."
One of those soldiers, Najmul Hasan, 29, recently spent 50 days in Taliban captivity in Waziristan. "The ringleaders would threaten on a daily basis to behead us if the government didn't release their members," Hasan said. He and two others eventually escaped, but other soldiers were, in fact, beheaded. The Taliban videotaped one such incident in which an execution was carried out by a teenage boy.
While Waziristan is believed to be the operational headquarters for the insurgency, militant groups have expanded their reach significantly over the past year. They now have a firm grip not only on the tribal areas that line the Afghan border but on other sections of northwest Pakistan as well.
Residents of this frontier city are beginning to feel besieged, with the surrounding countryside falling under insurgents' sway and assailants occasionally carrying out attacks in Peshawar.
Even hard-line religious leaders are not safe. Last month, one of Peshawar's most prominent clerics, Maulana Hassan Jan, was assassinated as he rode in his car to evening prayers. Although he had been outspoken in his criticism of the United States and was revered among many who want to bring Islamic law to Pakistan, he was not radical enough to satisfy insurgent groups, who are blamed for his killing. He had, for instance, shunned the pro-Taliban clerics at Islamabad's Red Mosque, or Lal Masjid, when they instigated an armed standoff with the government in July.
"Traditional religious and political leaders are losing ground because people consider them very soft against Pervez Musharraf and America," said Qibla Ayaz, dean of the Islamic studies program at Peshawar University. "Among the youth, their influence is weakening."
The United States has pumped about $10 billion into Pakistan since 2001, the vast majority of it for the military. But the aid does not seem to have won the United States many friends here. Nor has it successfully prepared the Pakistani army to battle insurgents.
"The sad thing about it is that a lot of these militants are better off than the Frontier Corps," said the Western official, referring to the Pakistani force that is supposed to be on the front lines fighting the Taliban and al-Qaeda. The militants "have rockets. They have advanced weapons. And the Frontier Corps has sandals and a bolt-action rifle."
Al-Qaeda leader Osama bin Laden has sought to exploit the Pakistani military's deficiencies and its unpopular ties to the United States. Last month, he released an unusual audio recording in which he focused almost all of his wrath on Musharraf and called on Pakistanis to overthrow their government.
Shah, the retired general, said that knowing how strong al-Qaeda has become, Pakistani officials are deluding themselves if they think insurgents will back down anytime soon.
"Pakistan should have no doubt about what these people have done, and what they can do," he said. "They have declared war on Pakistan. Now the army must make a war plan."
Lieutenant General Ray Odierno, commander of the Multi-National Corps in Iraq, appeared in Washington this week to deliver his assessment of the military and political progress in Iraq.
Cautiously upbeat, Odierno noted some signs of major progress. For example, he pointed out that violence has dropped significantly, particularly in Baghdad, always al-Qaeda in Iraq’s (AQI) major target area because of the capital’s international media visibility. Earlier, al-Qaeda terrorized the city with murderous abandon. No longer. Baghdad neighborhoods that had been under AQI's Taliban-like control for more than a year have now been liberated. Seen against the backdrop of these developments, the fact that AQI's recent Ramadan offensive was a singular failure is proof of the organization‘s growing weakness.
Outside of Baghdad, too, there are signs of improvement. Cities that were once wracked by constant fighting -- Ramadi, Fallujah, and al-Qaim -- have been freed from al-Qaeda control. An American trooper stationed in Ramadi, once the scene of especially brutal fighting, recently told Odierno that today he could today through the streets "naked" (i.e., without a weapon) and not fear attack. Before the surge, that would have been unthinkable.
A major reason for this dramatic reversal is that Sunni tribal sheiks have come to recognize that their future lies with the government of Iraq, not with al Qaeda. Odierno pointed out that while al-Qaeda is still dangerous, it is "losing its support" because of its "indiscriminate targeting of civilians." The endless stream of foreign suicide bombers exploding automobiles in crowded marketplaces finally convinced the Sunni sheiks that all AQI has to offer Iraqis is a legacy of death. That should come as no surprise. Reports coming out of AQI occupied cities and from Baghdad neighborhoods detail unspeakable horrors inflicted upon the hapless populace in the name of Wahabbist ideology.
With the weakening of al-Qaeda, the reconstruction effort has taken off in earnest. In some outlying areas, troops are no longer fighting a counter-insurgency, and can focus on their efforts on rebuilding the country. This is a significant departure from the intense combat that raged in some of the contested Sunni areas as recently as six to eight months ago.
But it is too early to declare victory. Odierno cautioned that America is not yet where we want to be in that country. "It is very tempting to overestimate progress," the general said. He warned that "irreversible momentum" toward victory will come only with time, patience, and continued support from the American people.
According to Odierno, it will not be enough to defeat al-Qaeda in Iraq. Also required is a deliberate, careful shift of security responsibilities to Iraqi forces, something that has been happening on an accelerated basis as a result of the spring-summer reinforcement of troops through the surge. Along with military stability, strong economic growth, particularly in the private employment and start-up business fields, is vital to success. Most important, Iraq’s ethnic and religious communities will have to choose between further bloodshed and political reconciliation.
In Odierno's opinion, the Iraqi people are already in the process of making that choice, and they have decided on peace. By way of illustration, he cited the sheiks in the highly fractious Sunni areas. "The sheiks have made their decision to support the Iraqi government," Odierno explained, “and we are now seeing similar decisions at the grass roots level in Shi'a neighborhoods, particularly in Baghdad's notorious Sadr City.”
Equally critical to the current success is the bond that has been forged between American troops and their Iraqi counterparts. Odierno made a special point of praising the Iraqi security units that moved six to seven additional battalions into Baghdad to coincide with the surge. At least one joint security position has been up and running successfully in Sadr City and "there is an excellent relationship between the Iraqi security forces and U.S. forces at the joint planning and operations level." Based on this success, Odierno plans to implement half a dozen more joint security positions quickly.Odierno was especially pleased with the collegial relationship between Iraqis and Americans. The coordination is informal but the results are nothing short of amazing. "When I drive or fly over Baghdad," Odierno said, "I am pleased by what I describe as a return of normalcy." He noted that traffic is managed better and services such as electricity and water have improved enormously. Markets now protected from AQI suicide bombers are growing rapidly and mundane but important indicators such as youth soccer games suggest a measurable improvement in security. "I see hundreds of soccer games being played at all times of the day and night, in areas that previously people feared to congregate because of al Qaeda attack,” Odierno observed.
Yet Odierno is a realist. "There is more to do here especially in view of jobs and economic growth," he said. He cited the progress being made by the U.S. Agency for International Development in setting up job training programs in "hard skills" training -- plumbing, electrical, carpentry, masonry -- but noted that much more effort is needed. While government-sponsored programs are a short-term fix, he said that Iraq won't see gains on the employment side until the private sector takes over. He was confident that it would happen, but he said that it will require years of effort.
Nor does Odierno ignore the continuing threat from outside Iraq. While AQI infiltrators continue to come in through Syria, the primary problem is Iran. "Most of the training of Iraqi bad guys by Iranian forces is done inside Iran," Odierno observed. "So our job is to catch them as they return through the key border points." To that end, Coalition and Iraqi forces are placing more emphasis on interdiction.Another matter of pressing concern for Odierno is the need for stable political guidance, both in Baghdad and in Washington. "Observers in the U.S. complain that the Iraqi government is feckless and fractious," he said. He added, with a hint of bitterness, that this is just what outsiders see when they look at American politics. "I need to know just what support I have over here long term," he stated. "It is vital because decisions I make now are based on whether we will have a U.S. presence here two, three, or more years out." But as the country braces itself for a contentious presidential primary process, asking for steady leadership from Washington increasingly seems like a tall order.
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