We've heard much talk about a "Plan B" in Iraq, but I'm not sure most people realize exactly what it is.
Obviously the US has not been pleased with the Shiite Government for a lot of reasons.
1) Death squads--some factions within the government have obviously supported these in various degrees. The US doesn't want them.
2) Poor relations with the wrong countries--the Shiites have not got on well with their Sunni neighbors like Saudi Arabia (and other US allies). They have also made overatures to Iran (an enemy).
3) Corruption--The Shiites seem willing to all but shut out Iraqi Sunnis from any government service.
4) Reluctance on reconciliation.
5) Don't want to share the wealth--they've been tight fisted with oil revenues.
So what is plan B really? The US has begun arming some Sunni tribes on the premise that they will fight al Qaeda. But is there more to it?
Arming Sunni sends a message to the Shiite government. First, it lets them know, if they can't get their act together, they can be replaced (with Sunnis who have more experience). Second, it lets them know our patience is running out. Arming the Sunnis places competitive pressure on the Shiites. (FDR was know for the tactic during WWII. He would, for example, put Nimitz in direct competition with Mac Arthur & offer increased support to whichever was more successful). It also shows good faith to the Sunnis & lets them know that the invasion was nothing personal (that we are not simply joining in on the tribal warfare).
The significance of this is that if the Shiites can't get it done, we would be willing to work with the Sunnis now that Saddam & most of his goons are gone. Neighbors like Saudi Arabia and Jordan will be more happy with this. The Iranians will hate it. (As will Iraqi Shiites).
Obviously we don't want to go this route, but demonstrating a willingness to do so will pressure the Shiites to get it done. |