80% drop in Iraq insurgency strikes

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Subject: 80% drop in Iraq insurgency strikes
HYPOCENTER 3/8/2007 2:12:07 PM

For all you leftest haters out their, I know it pains you to hear this...and you probably wont accept it, but the new IRAQ strategy is WORKING: http://www.worldtribune.com/worldtribune/07/front2454168.054861111.html And remember, only one brigade has entered the country, we have 5 more to go.

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HYPOCENTER Quote: 3/8/2007 2:14:07 PM

Campbell said Iraqi and U.S. forces have been raiding insurgency strongholds and capturing weapons caches. He said that from Feb. 24 to March 2, the forces seized 74 weapon caches. This exceeded the previous week's total by 11.

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swhitebull From the What's Not News thread right below 3/8/2007 2:21:49 PM

From CaptainsQuartersBlog.com:

Learning The Right Lessons

Perhaps it is too early to grant General David Petraeus rock-star status, but he has garnered some good press of late. USA Today reports on Petraeus' philosophy of war and its application in Baghdad, as well as early indications of success:

Twenty years ago, David Petraeus, then a young Army officer, wrote a Ph.D. dissertation for Princeton University, saying many of the lessons U.S. military leaders learned from the Vietnam War were wrong.
Generals had become hesitant to commit forces except when they could win conventional battles with superior American firepower. "The senior military have universally been more cautious since Vietnam," Petraeus wrote.

That hesitancy posed a problem in Petraeus' view. The U.S. military was turning away from the very fight — insurgencies — that it would likely confront. The United States' enemies had also learned from Vietnam and would not want to confront U.S. military might head-on.

Now the top U.S. commander in Iraq, Petraeus is following his own advice. Since he arrived in Baghdad last month, U.S. troops are moving off large bases and into combat outposts in the city's turbulent neighborhoods. Aides insist the new strategy is beginning to show positive results, particularly in the capital ...

USA Today provides some interesting stats to source its argument for the early success of Petraeus. Sectarian fighting between Sunni and Shi'ites has decreased by as much as 80% in some of the tougher areas of Baghdad. Between 600 and 1,000 families have returned to the Iraqi capital, halting a flow of refugees from the violence-wracked streets of Baghdad; 20 families a day had been going the other direction before that.

More significantly, the Sunni insurgents have returned to the bargaining table. Now that they understand the Americans are all that stand between them and a Halabja-style ethnic cleansing, they have decided to engage in the political process, at least for now. The new push against both sides of the sectarian conflict has apparently bolstered our credibility, as bloody noses often do.

Petraeus wants more out of this assignment than just a pacification in Baghdad, although that is his primary goal. He has argued for a better counterinsurgency regime within the American military, arguing that the proven domination of the US on the battlefield will mean that almost all future threats will be asymmetrical. If the US expects to maintain its military superiority and therefore protect its national security, it will have to learn to defeat insurgencies. We will not learn that by running away, and a retreat in the face of such terrorists will only encourage more of them -- as the only way to defeat the United States, and by extension, the West.

It's unfortunate that Petraeus did not get this opportunity earlier. His vision could save Iraq, if given the time, but Petraeus has little of that. If in six months he cannot make substantial and enduring progress, a hostile Congress will almost certainly pull the plug. However, if he can expand on his early success and help give the Iraqi government enough room to negotiate a settlement between its sects, then Congress will likely act as though Iraq doesn't exist, and allow for even further gains.

Petraeus has six months to undo thirty years of faulty analysis and three years of ineffective strategy. Hopefully, the Pentagon's new rock star will start churning out the hits.

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The link to the USA Today article provides the details on the 50-80% figures on the numbers of violence incidents.

The key person reporting on this is Petraeus' chief advisor on COIN, who must also be keeping close tabs via [deleted by SysOps for security reasons] technology and [deleted by SysOps for security reasons])

swhitebull

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Herc the Merc Correction Hypo 3/8/2007 2:33:12 PM

The others had said if more troops were available the insurgency would be less. This is no great new plan Shinseki said at least 300,000 troops were needed to control. Baghdad is in control because there are more troops and patrols. If we keep up the police state environment we will succeed, issue is when we refuse to do it everyday......Its like babysitting.

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Bigfella2 3/8/2007 3:04:55 PM

For all you leftest haters out their, I know it pains you to hear this...and you probably wont accept it, but the new IRAQ strategy is WORKING:http://www.worldtribune.com/worldtribune/07/front2454168.054861111.html" target=_blank>link

And remember, only one brigade has entered the country, we have 5 more to go.

Hypo,

I hope your article is correct. I would be careful, though, about declaring victory too early. I would go for 'spme promising early signs, but still a lot of work to do'. There are some positive signs, but March has already been especially bloody. Over 100 dead in the past week.

Petraeus is one of the brightest generals in the company. Its a great pity that he wasn't given a larger role much sooner. Still, at least he is making positive changes now. It is no secret that the US military has been reluctant to absorb the lessons of Vietnam. Given the nature of the threat posed by terrorism, it is people like Petraeus who will play a key role in the battles to come. I wish him well.

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HYPOCENTER A quick word on General Petraeus: 3/8/2007 3:11:21 PM

General Petraeus is already a rockstar in my eyes. This is the man who, literally, wrote the book on COUNTER INSURGENCY. I've been hoping and wishing he'd take command ever since I read it, and now that he finally has we're seeing drastic positive changes. I also agree with Petraeus' viewpoint on the hesitation and shyness of our military since Vietnam, and that the wrong lessons were learned. This is truly a man with the vision and leadership needed to win this fight. Petraeus is right man, at the right place at the right time (well, obviously having him from the get-go would have been ideal -- but he's here now, and that's what counts).

There's no doubt Petraeus' is going to grow into super-star status, legendary even. I'm already seeing it. By the time this is all over, he'll be seen as the Douglas MacArthur of our day.

One lingering question does remain, and it's the issue of time. He can win this, but does he have enough TIME? Given the rapid progress we've seen already -- and all things remaining equal -- six months to a year from now seems like more than enough time.

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Plutarch 3/8/2007 4:13:55 PM

Some points;

1.) Gen. Petraeus wrote the introduction to the new Army manual on COIN ops but not the manual itself.

2.) Attacks down in Baghdad could mean a lot of things; the way attacks are counted, the count could be skewed, etc.

3.) Attacks down in Baghdad don't take into account the fact that attacks have increased in areas outside of Baghdad, so it could be merely a shift in insurgency tactics. Also not taken into account is the fact that the body count has not dropped significantly; yesterday 100 Iraqis died, which has been the average for the last year.

4.) Petraeus is no doubt a smart man, but it is a serious stretch to compare him to MacArthur. Your statements smack of HYPERbole so perhaps we should wait and see what happens in Iraq over the long haul before we throw the ticker-tape parade in Washington.

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Herc the Merc Plus this COIN 3/8/2007 4:16:14 PM

Seems more and more similar to Kasmir and India where an extremely similar approach has been used--ie massive troop deployment - a few troops every block, finding militant groups ready to talk, and re-construction and fence with Pakistan + international pressure. Here is where our plans stand

1) Limited troop availability---Showing results in a small region, the insurgents typically lie low when pressure is up-can we continue this for 10years-- u forget the Shia Sunni divide is a 1000years.

2) Will Sunni insurgents and AQ talk to us and join forces with the SHia dominated government--probably not.

3) Talking to Syria and Iran. U folks lambasted Kerry for talking to Syria, well the policy seems to be reversing but what does Iran want?? No real progress there, cutting of funding from Wahabi Sunnis(Especially Saudis), I don't see anything there maybe someone talk to the Saudi Royals to clamp that down but ...

4) Fence with Syria especially--no progress to stop cross border movement

5) Reconstruction--lights water food , any sense of normalcy so that we can divide civilians who want a 9 to 5 life and TV

against the violent types?? I dunno again, but not optimistic.

So Hypo u be the judge------

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Herc the Merc Herc's rule of thumb for the Middle East 3/8/2007 4:23:08 PM

Things rarely go as planned. And nothing stays the same. The smartest way to deal with the Middle East is stay 10,000miles away and remotely influence events and hope to get lucky. Quick short interventions are ok but anything more than a few months and then you know why its called the d$mn Middle East.

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swhitebull 3/8/2007 6:25:34 PM

One small point - the phrase, "wrote the book", means he was instrumental in formulating the new COIN doctrine found in the army manual, not that he wrote the preface to it!! LOL!!!

The field manual's chief authors were Lt. Gen. David H. Petraeus and retired Lt. Col. Conrad C. Crane.When Petraeus was commander of the 101st Airborne Division in Iraq, he combined combat power and community-building more astutely than any other officer. Crane, director of the U.S. Army Military History Institute, is one of the leading scholars of "irregular warfare." They both support the war's aims. And they outline their new doctrine -- or, rather, their revival of a very old doctrine -- thoughtfully and thoroughly.

Counterinsurgency involves rebuilding a society, keeping the population safe, boosting the local government's legitimacy, training a national army and fighting off insurgents who are trying to topple the government -- all at the same time. As the manual puts it, "The insurgent succeeds by sowing chaos and disorder anywhere; the government fails unless it maintains order everywhere."

From the first page to the last, the authors stress that these kinds of wars are "protracted by nature." They require "firm political will and extreme patience," "considerable expenditure of time and resources," and a large deployment of troops ready to greet "hand shakes or hand grenades" without mistaking one for the other.

"Successful . . . operations require Soldiers and Marines at every echelon to possess the following," the authors write. They then list a daunting set of traits: "A clear, nuanced, and empathetic appreciation of the essential nature of the conflict. . . . An understanding of the motivation, strengths, and weaknesses of the insurgent," as well as rud

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Plutarch 3/8/2007 7:12:11 PM

Thanks for the link and info on the manual swhitebull. I will have to read it over throughly. It may turn out to be a very good thing indeed to have Petarus to be commander in Iraq. All past transgressions of this administration can be forgiven if they do find a way to bring peace and stability to Iraq. Let's hope they can do it.

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