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Subject: Where for art tho Lancet threads?
EW3    10/14/2006 6:52:31 PM
Is SP getting hacked.
We've had 1 thread lock up so it can't be posted to.
And the two replacement threads hacked.
Seems like right after sheck makes cogent points about the fallacy of the report, the thread he does it on disappears.
 
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Plutarch    Arbalest Reply   10/30/2006 12:27:52 PM


Un study, my arse. the UN simply regurgitated what the Iraqi deputy information minister told them. Which you became YOUR latest battlecry. Show us....on what day since that figure appeared have more than 100 iraqis died? 100 is the average, so maybe you could find 2 days in which more than 100  Iraqis died...Pick a date, any date...still waiting; been waiting since you spewed that Iraqi garbage.

 

All along, it has been Iraq, Iran and North Korea.

 

 

 

 

and their enablers.



Ridiculous argumentation. Here is an entire website devoted to counting dead Iraqis and it averages 100 per day.

 
3000 killed in June's 30 days= 100 dead per day. 3400 killed in July's 31 days= 110 dead per day, 3000 dead in August's 30 days = 100 dead, 3500 dead in September's 30 days=116 dead per day, and if the current trend in October continues when all the numbers are released it will be around 110 dead per day.
 
 
 
Pick a date any date, and count the numbers, heck someone's already done it for you so just read the news articles.  Keep in mind that this is the baseline, the minimum number of dead, and it is still more than most conflicts classified as a civil war. 

 
 
Quote    Reply

Plutarch    George Will   10/30/2006 12:52:18 PM
Interesting article by George Will on Iraq:
 
"The latest plan to pacify Baghdad?announced in June, declared a failure in October?was called Operation Together Forward. But U.S.-Iraqi togetherness is a sometime thing. Last April, The Washington Post's Jonathan Finer reported from Hawijah, Iraq, on a joint patrol to search for roadside bombs. The Iraqis refused to ride in armored U.S. Humvees, preferring pickup trucks because a cleric told them that anyone killed in an "occupier vehicle" would not go to heaven. Eventually, after threatening them with jail, U.S. Army Lt. Aaron Tapalman browbeat them into Humvees:
 

"About an hour later, the patrol came across a white bag on the roadside that Tapalman suspected might contain a bomb. When he asked some Iraqi soldiers to move it off the road, their commander balked, saying it wasn't his job. 'It is your job to protect the people,' Tapalman said, increasingly exasperated. 'I can go and move it myself, and you know what? I will, but don't you think your people should see you doing that kind of stuff? Someday we're not going to be here anymore.' The Iraqi soldier declined again, apologetically, and drove away."

A mordant joke told during the Cold War concerned asking an Italian, a Frenchman, an Englishman and a Russian to each describe his most cherished dream. The Italian said, "I want my country to produce the greatest artists." The Frenchman said, "I want my nation to produce the greatest philosophers." The Englishman said, "I want my country to produce the greatest parliamentarians." The Russian said, "I want my neighbor's cow to die."

The joke was no laughing matter because it turned on this truth: A history of brutalizing tyranny had stunted the Russians' aptitude for collective aspirations. Which brings us back to Iraq, which Patrick J. McDonnell of the Los Angeles Times covered for two years following the 2003 invasion. He recently returned. His Oct. 23 report ( "Into the Abyss of Baghdad") begins:

"I keep seeing his face. He appears to be in his mid-20s, bespectacled, slightly bearded, and somehow his smile conveys a sense of prosperity to come. Perhaps he is set to marry, or enroll in graduate school, or launch a business?all these flights of ambition seem possible. In the next few images he is encased in plastic: His face is frozen in a ghoulish grimace. Blackened lesions blemish his neck. 'Drill holes,' says Col. Khaled Rasheed, an Iraqi commander who is showing me the set of photographs."
 
Electric drills are the death squads' preferred instruments of torture.
McDonnell:

"One evening I accompanied a three-Humvee convoy of MPs through largely Shiite east Baghdad ... The objective that evening was to patrol with Iraqi police, but the Iraqi lawmen are hesitant to be seen with Americans, whom they regard as IED [improvised explosive device] magnets. The joint patrol never worked out ... The next night, an armor-piercing bomb hit the same squad, Gator 1-2. A sergeant with whom I had ridden the previous evening lost a leg; the gunner and driver suffered severe shrapnel wounds."

For what?"
 
link
 
 
 
 
 
Quote    Reply

Arbalest    Plutarch   10/30/2006 2:42:29 PM

"Also the western districts are Al Anbar, Najaf, and Ninawa, hardly immune to violence."

True, but the vast majority of the population of Al Anbar is between Ramadi and Baghdad; thus it is easy, if not necessarily quite correct, to lump Al Anbar with Baghdad. Najaf has always been a problem. Mosul has some violence, as does most of Iraq, but it is not nearly the same level as Baghdad.

A map of Iraqi population density is available at link , and shows the clustering around Baghdad, and south to Najaf. One level up is a list of many maps of Iraq. While the maps are by no means conclusive, they do point to the Lancet’s number (~655,000) being obviously wrong.

 

"Fighting in most wars in history is localized."

You see my point. The Lancet’s methods may have been scientifically valid, but only in the areas in which the study was made. Using the local population(s) generates a number about 25% of the value the Lancet reported. Whoever used the total population of Iraq, instead of the local populations, was either incompetent or had a political agenda.

 

George Will has a point, but the link doesn’t work. In any event, we need to get a timetable in place to shift the burden of peacekeeping and law enforcement to the Iraqis. It is their job. I see enormous value in setting up a stable, democratic Iraq, but I see no value in keeping a US presence there into 2008.

There is a chance that radicals, of one form or another, will try to take over Iraq, and they may succeed. But if it happens after we leave, then it is not a US loss, but an Iraqi loss.
 
 
Quote    Reply

PlatypusMaximus       10/30/2006 3:22:56 PM
Ridiculous argumentation. Here is an entire website devoted to counting dead Iraqis and it averages 100 per day.

 
3000 killed in June's 30 days= 100 dead per day. 3400 killed in July's 31 days= 110 dead per day, 3000 dead in August's 30 days = 100 dead, 3500 dead in September's 30 days=116 dead per day, and if the current trend in October continues when all the numbers are released it will be around 110 dead per day.
 
 
 
Pick a date any date, and count the numbers, heck someone's already done it for you so just read the news articles.  Keep in mind that this is the baseline, the minimum number of dead, and it is still more than most conflicts classified as a civil war. 
 
 
An entire website?  there's plenty of garbage out there with an entire website devoted to spewing it. Why cannot 1 single reputable news organization compile enough information out of Iraq to find 100 dead on ANY day? They'd love to plaster tomorrows headlines with 100 die across Iraq...but they cant.
 
"As the death toll climbed for both U.S. forces and Iraqi civilians, who are being killed at a rate of 43 a day, the country's Shiite-dominated government remained under intense U.S. pressure to shut down Shiite militias."
Oct 19, 2006 7:54 am US/Eastern
link
 
 
"Casey's estimate of when the Iraqi army will be ready was noteworthy because it has not changed even as the security situation in the country has deteriorated. Iraqis are now being killed at a pace of more than 40 each day in sectarian fighting and revenge killing."
BAGHDAD, Iraq, Oct. 24, 2006

 

I choose today. How many died today? Tomorrow?
Says Who?
 
Quote    Reply

Plutarch    Arbalest   10/30/2006 3:29:02 PM


"Also the western districts are Al Anbar, Najaf, and Ninawa, hardly immune to violence."


True, but the vast majority of the population of Al Anbar is between Ramadi and Baghdad; thus it is easy, if not necessarily quite correct, to lump Al Anbar with Baghdad. Najaf has always been a problem. Mosul has some violence, as does most of Iraq, but it is not nearly the same level as Baghdad.


A map of Iraqi population density is available at link , and shows the clustering around Baghdad, and south to Najaf. One level up is a list of many maps of Iraq. While the maps are by no means conclusive, they do point to the Lancet’s number (~655,000) being obviously wrong.


 


"Fighting in most wars in history is localized."


You see my point. The Lancet’s methods may have been scientifically valid, but only in the areas in which the study was made. Using the local population(s) generates a number about 25% of the value the Lancet reported. Whoever used the total population of Iraq, instead of the local populations, was either incompetent or had a political agenda.


 


George Will has a point, but the link doesn't’t work. In any event, we need to get a timetable in place to shift the burden of peacekeeping and law enforcement to the Iraqis. It is their job. I see enormous value in setting up a stable, democratic Iraq, but I see no value in keeping a US presence there into 2008.


There is a chance that radicals, of one form or another, will try to take over Iraq, and they may succeed. But if it happens after we leave, then it is not a US loss, but an Iraqi loss.

 



Here is the link again:

link


 
I agree that the Lancet study has flaws.  The population map really brings things into perspective with the Western provinces almost empty of people, not much sense in using that many clusters from Anbar.  But the death toll is still pretty high in Iraq.
 
Regarding setting up a stable and democratic Iraq.  I'm afraid that battle is lost, as the Iraqis are more interested in killing their neighbors than fostering civic societies; the Sunni Arabs, Shiite Arabs, and Sunni Kurds all want to see their neighbor's cow die, but don't want to come together as a nation.
 
There will be a US presence in Iraq into 2010 and beyond as the military has said so, and the violence will continue until US troops leave. 
 
There is a chance that radicals, of one form or another, will try to take over Iraq, and they may succeed. But if it happens after we leave, then it is not a US loss, but an Iraqi loss.
 
This is incorrect thinking, and kind of a cop out, we might as well blame Saddam Hussein for the violence ten years from now...maybe we should blame Tsar Nicholas for the gulags in the 1960s.  Iraqis were responsible for Iraqis until the US invaded their country overthrew their leaders, and governed them for two years; at that point it became the US's problem and the US had an obligation to fix it.  If that was not feasible the US had an obligation to find the most effective leaders in Iraq to stabilize the country, also the US could have broadened international support for the effort and since the US failed at all these things, the Iraq mess is an American failure.  Specifically it is a GWB/Dick Cheney/Donald Rumsfeld/Paul Wolfowitz/Jerry Bremer failure the way Vietnam was a Lyndon Johnson,/Hubert Humphrey/Robert McNamara/McGeorge Bundy defeat.
 
Quote    Reply

Plutarch    100 deaths a day   10/30/2006 3:49:13 PM

Deaths from yesterday, Oct 29:
 

10/29/06

AL-SHIRQAT - A roadside bomb killed one policeman in the town of al-Shirqat, police said.

0

1

1

10/29/06

BAGHDAD - A car bomb in Binoog district of Baghdad killed two policeman and wounded two, an Interior Ministry source said.

0

2

2

10/29/06

BAGHDAD - A sports presenter at the state television station Iraqiya was killed with her driver in Baghdad, police said.

1

0

1

10/29/06

BAGHDAD - Police found 31 bodies in different parts of Baghdad in the past 24 hours, Interior Ministry sources said.

31

0

31

10/29/06

BALAD - Gunmen killed three Iraqi soldiers in Tal al-Thahab village near Balad, police said.

0

3

3

10/29/06

BAQUBA - A roadside bomb killed five soldiers in an army patrol in southern Baquba, and gunmen in a car killed two policemen on patrol and a civilian, police said.

1

7

8

10/29/06

BAQUBA - On Saturday, gunmen in the city killed three people and wounded a police major in two incidents.

3

0

3

10/29/06

BASRA - Gunmen ambushed a minibus carrying police translators, trainers and cleaning workers from a police academy to the southern city of Basra, killing 17 people, a police source said.

17

0

17

10/29/06

DIWANIYA - Gunmen killed Maitham Taqi al-Asadi, a translator working with U.S. forces, in Diwaniya on Saturday, police said.

1

0

1

10/29/06

FALLUJA - Police found four bodies bearing signs of torture and bullet wounds in a deserted area near Falluja...police said. The bullet-riddled body of a kidnapped policeman was found, dumped in the town.

4

1

5

10/29/06

KUT - Gunmen killed the son of ex-brigadier Nasir al-Sadoun and three relatives at his house in Kut on Saturday, police said. The same day, a policeman was shot dead near a checkpoint.

4

0

4

10/29/06

MOSUL - Police found three bodies in the northern city of Mosul, including a policeman and an off-duty soldier, police said.

1

2

3

10/29/06

MUQDADIYA - Gunmen killed two civilians in Muqdadiya on Saturday, police said.

2

0

2

 
Total=85
 
Deaths from Oct 19th:
 

10/19/06

BAGHDAD - A car bomb and a roadside bomb targeting a police patrol killed a civilian and wounded five others, including two policemen, in the New Baghdad district in the east of the capital, an Interior Ministry source said.

1

0

1

10/19/06

BAGHDAD - A roadside bomb targeting a police patrol killed five people -- three policemen and two civilians -- and wounded 12, nine of them civilians, in Baghdad's southern Dora district, an Interior Ministry source said.

2

3

5

10/19/06

BAGHDAD - Gunmen attacked a police station and killed four policemen and wounded 10 civilians, an Interior Ministry source said.

0

4

4

10/19/06

BAGHDAD - Gunmen killed an employee in the Ministry of Higher Education in central Baghdad, police said.

1

0

1

10/19/06

BAGHDAD - Gunmen shot dead police Colonel Basim Qasim in Baghdad's southern Saydiya district, an Interior Ministry source said.

0

1

1

10/19/06

BALAD - Nine people were killed on Thursday when 15 mortars hit the Shi'ite city of Balad, 80 km (50 miles) north of Baghdad, and militias attacked two nearby Sunni villages, police said on Friday.

9

0

9

10/19/06

BAQUBA - Three Iraqi policemen were killed in clashes with gunmen near the volatile town of Baquba, 65 km (40 miles) north of Baghdad, police said.

0

3

3

10/19/06

DIWANIYA - Gunmen killed a man as he left his house in Diwaniya, 180 km (112 miles) south of Baghdad, police said.

1

0

1

10/19/06

KHALIS - A roadside bomb ripped through a busy market, killing 10 people and injuring 20 shortly before the evening Iftar meal when Muslims break their fasting in the month of Ramadan, Interior Ministry sources said

10

0

10

10/19/06

KHALIS (near) - Gunmen killed four labourers and wounded four others in a drive-by shooting near the town of Khalis, 80 km (60 miles) north of Baghdad, police said.

4

0

4

10/19/06

KIRKUK - A car bomb killed one person and wounded eight others in Kirkuk, police said.

1

0

1

10/19/06

KIRKUK - A suicide car bomb killed two Iraqi soldiers and wounded four more some 35 km (22 miles) southwest of Kirkuk, police and the army said.

0

2

2

10/19/06

KIRKUK - A suicide car bomber killed at least eight people and wounded 70 others in the oil city of Kirkuk, 250 km (155 miles) north of Baghdad. It targeted Iraqi army troops collecting salaries from a bank, police said.

8

0

8

10/19/06

MAHMUDIYA - Several mortar rounds landed in a residential district of the town of Mahmudiya, killing two people and wounding three from the same family, police said

2

0

2

10/19/06

MAHMUDIYA - The bodies of five people were found with gunshot wounds in the town of Mahmudiya, 30 km (20 miles) south of Baghdad, police said.

5

0

5

10/19/06

MAHMUDIYA (near) - Several mortar rounds landed on a town near Mahmudiya, killing two people and wounding four others, police said.

2

0

2

10/19/06

MOSUL - Six suicide bombers in vehicles, including one in a fuel truck, attacked Iraqi police and U.S. patrols, and insurgents fired mortars and clashed with police...The violence killed at least 20 people

20

0

20

10/18/06

Baghdad - "20 bodies were found dumped in different places in Baghdad city during the last 24 hours," an interior ministry source said.Most of the bodies "were unidentified and some bore torture marks while most were killed with gunshots...

20

0

20


 
Total: 99
 
 
How about Oct 16th:
 

10/16/06

BAGHDAD - A total of 46 bodies, with gunshot wounds and bearing signs of torture, were found in Baghdad since Saturday night, an Interior Ministry source said.

46

0

46

10/16/06

BAGHDAD - Clashes between police and gunmen killed three people and wounded five in central Baghdad, police said.

3

0

3

10/16/06

BAGHDAD - Gunmen killed Farouq Atta, an air force brigadier, and wounded two of his companions on Sunday in northern Waziriya district of Baghdad, an Interior Ministry source said.

0

1

1

10/16/06

BAGHDAD - Three roadside bombs exploded, killing three civilians and wounding seven other people, including a policeman, near a bank in central Baghdad, police said.

3

0

3

10/16/06

BAGHDAD - Two near simultaneous car bombs killed 20 people and wounded 17 in the mixed neighbourhood of Ur in northern Baghdad, an Interior Ministry source said. The attacks took place at sunset shortly before Iftar

20

0

20

10/16/06

BALAD - Four days of sectarian slaughter killed at least 91 people by Monday in Balad [previously recorded 63].

28

0

28

10/16/06

BAQUBA (near) - Gunmen killed four policemen and kidnapped three others near Baquba, 65 km (40 miles) north of Baghdad, police said.

0

4

4

10/16/06

KHALIS - Gunmen killed two bodyguards of former Prime Minster Ibrahim al-Jaafari in Khalis, police said.

2

0

2

10/16/06

KHALIS - Gunmen opened fire at shops, killing four shop owners and wounding five others in the town of Khalis, 80 km (50 miles) north of Baghdad, police said.

4

0

4

10/16/06

MADAEN - Gunmen killed a policeman in an attack on police guarding electrical infrastructure in Madaen, 45 km (25 miles) south of Baghdad, an Interior Ministry source said

0

1

1

10/16/06

MAHMUDIYA - A Shi'ite family of five was killed after gunmen stormed their home in the town of Mahmudiya, in the Sunni "Triangle of Death" south of Baghdad, police said.

5

0

5

10/16/06

MOSUL - Gunmen killed the media director of the education department, Raad al-Hayali, on Sunday in Mosul, police said.

1

0

1

10/16/06

MOSUL - Police found the bodies of two men in Mosul, northern Iraq, a hospital source said.

2

0

2

10/16/06

SUWAYRA - At least 10 people were killed and 15 wounded when a car bomb went off near a bank in a market in the town of Suwayra, 40 km (25 miles) south of Baghdad, police said.

10

0

 

 
 
Total:  126
 
Here is October 14th:
 

10/14/06

Amara - Revenge was apparently the motive when a Baathist official with the former regime of Saddam Hussein was dragged from his house on Saturday morning by gunmen in the southern city of Amara. His body was later found near the bus station, police said.

1

0

1

10/14/06

Baghdad - An Iraqi journalist [Raed Qais al-Shammari] working for government-run TV was killed in a drive-by shooting in southern Baghdad, police said on Saturday, in the latest in a string of attacks on media workers.

1

0

1

10/14/06

BAGHDAD - At least 25 bodies were found in different parts of Baghdad over the last 24 hours, police said. The bodies bore signs of torture and had gunshot wounds.

25

0

25

10/14/06

Balad - The bodies of 26 Iraqis, apparently killed in retaliation for the killing of 14 Shiite construction workers, have been found scattered in and around the city of Balad, according to an official with Salaheddin Joint Coordination Center.

26

0

26

10/14/06

Baquba - Seven people were killed in an early morning mortar attack on a small Sunni village near Baqouba...Residents blamed Shiite militias for the attack, in which four mortar rounds were fired into the village.

7

0

7

10/14/06

Baquba - Two civilians were also killed by gunmen in Baquba itself, and a shopkeeper was shot dead in the central city of Samarra..

2

0

2

10/14/06

Diwaniyah - Gunmen killed a teacher in the southern city of Diwaniyah in a drive-by shooting, said police, adding that they did not know why the victim was targeted.

1

0

1

10/14/06

Diyala province - In Diyala province northeast of Baghdad, the Iraqi army reported that six gunmen and a female bystander were killed during a clash with US and Iraqi forces southwest of the provincial capital of Baquba.

1

0

1

10/14/06

Khalis - North of Baquba in Khalis, a police officer was killed and another was wounded when gunmen attacked a police patrol on Saturday.

0

1

1

10/14/06

Mahmoudiya - Around dawn, a Shiite family of four were killed in Mahmoudiya, about 20 miles south of Baghdad, army Capt. Oday Abdul-Ridha said. Abdul-Ridha said assailants dressed in military-style uniforms had stormed into the family's house.

4

0

4

10/14/06

Saifiyah - Gunmen martyred a family of 10, including five women and three children, just outside Baghdad, an Iraqi army official said Saturday. Late on Friday night, gunmen attacked a farm house in Saifiyah...

10

0

10

10/14/06

Suweira - Downstream from the capital, in Suweira village, another four bodies were recovered from the Tigris river, all without heads.

4

0

4

10/14/06

Wahda - In the evening, gunmen in a vehicle opened fire in the Shiite village of Wahda, killing three women and four men. Police pursued them and caught one of the attackers, a Sunni gunman, police said.

7

0

7

 
Total=99
 
 
Those four days average 102 dead.
 
And from today Oct 30th:
 
 

"In Iraq, there is little doubt now that the holiday break from violence was just that. At least 92 Iraqis have so far died on Monday and another 119 were wounded. The U.S. death toll for October alone hit 101 today making this the fourth deadliest month since the war began. An 89th Military Police Brigade servicemember was killed by a sniper in east Baghdad today. The military also reported this morning that a Marine was killed "due to enemy action" in Anbar Province. In major news, at least 33 were killed in a bombing in Sadr City and a senior member of a Sunni group was assassinated.

In Baghdad’s Sadr City area, day laborers waiting for jobs at a market square were greeted by a bomb hidden in a trash bin instead; at least 33 were killed and 59 wounded. Some reports place the wounded at around 100. Also, gunmen killed Essam al-Rawi and his bodyguard near his home in the capital. As well as the head of the University Professor’s Union, al-Rawi was a senior member of a hard-line Sunni group, Association of Muslim Scholars, that has boycotted much of the political process in Iraq and is said to be tied to militia groups.

Car bombing resumed at a brisk pace in Baghdad: Three were killed and six wounded when a car bomb went off in the Amil district. In the Hurriya neighborhood, two were wounded when a car bomb exploded there as well. Yet another car bomb near the Yarmouk Hospital killed one civilian and wounded five. Another car bomb exploded in the al-Harthiya area, two were killed and another wounded. In the al-Bayaa district, a car bomb killed seven and wounded 25 others.

Suicide bombers twice attacked a checkpoint in Waleed at the Syrian border. The first attempt resulted in no casualties; however, an hour later a second bomber killed six soldiers and wounded one other.

At a police center in Baiji, gunmen killed two policemen and destroyed one car.

Five were wounded in Mosul when mortars struck an electrical power unit. A roadside bomb injured an Iraqi soldier, and four bodies, including that of a policeman were discovered in different parts of the city.

In Balad, coalition forces disarming a roadside bomb killed two militiamen they noticed nearby.

The bodies of six policemen were fished out of the river in Suwayra. The corpses bore gunshot wounds and signs of torture.

Near Khalis, a roadside bomb blasted a vehicle carrying laborers. Two were killed and three were wounded.

Six blindfolded, bullet-riddled bodies bearing evidence of torture were discovered in Mahmudiya.

In Baquba, gunmen killed four Iraqis, including two policemen, in the Mafraq district. Another four gunshot-riddled bodies were found in the same area.

A private security company lost three members in a roadside bomb blast in Basra. After the explosion gunmen attacked the convoy they were traveling in and an Iraqi girl died in that battle.

In Kirkuk, a suicide bomber detonated his belt at a police station. Two officers and a child were killed, 11 others wounded"
link
They are all laid out for you, I even did the math, all you have to do is read.
 
 
 
Ridiculous argumentation. Here is an entire website devoted to counting dead Iraqis and it averages 100 per day.


 

3000 killed in June's 30 days= 100 dead per day. 3400 killed in July's 31 days= 110 dead per day, 3000 dead in August's 30 days = 100 dead, 3500 dead in September's 30 days=116 dead per day, and if the current trend in October continues when all the numbers are released it will be around 110 dead per day.

 


 


 

Pick a date any date, and count the numbers, heck someone's already done it for you so just read the news articles.  Keep in mind that this is the baseline, the minimum number of dead, and it is still more than most conflicts classified as a civil war. 

 

 

An entire website?  there's plenty of garbage out there with an entire website devoted to spewing it. Why cannot 1 single reputable news organization compile enough information out of Iraq to find 100 dead on ANY day? They'd love to plaster tomorrows headlines with 100 die across Iraq...but they cant.

 

"As the death toll climbed for both U.S. forces and Iraqi civilians, who are being killed at a rate of 43 a day, the country's Shiite-dominated government remained under intense U.S. pressure to shut down Shiite militias."

Oct 19, 2006 7:54 am US/Eastern

link
 

 

"Casey's estimate of when the Iraqi army will be ready was noteworthy because it has not changed even as the security situation in the country has deteriorated. Iraqis are now being killed at a pace of more than 40 each day in sectarian fighting and revenge killing."

BAGHDAD, Iraq, Oct. 24, 2006


 


I choose today. How many died today? Tomorrow?

Says Who?



 
Quote    Reply

Arbalest    Plutarch   10/30/2006 4:31:05 PM

It may very well be that the battle to set up a stable and democratic Iraq was never winnable. If so, then this points to the Iraqis as being incapable of handling democracy. The context of George Will’s quote ". . . not my job" supports this conclusion; at least it points away from the US.

For what it’s worth, the data in your 10/30/2006 3:49:13 PM post points to the primary cause of deaths in Iraq as being sectarian; Iraqi-getting-even-with-Iraqi. It looks like the end-result of the fall of Saddam Hussein (or his successor), whatever the cause, and not specifically US-caused.
Perhaps the Lancet should have also checked the various news reports, to compare cause-of-death with their data. With data pointing away from the US, I think that the Lancet's number would have been much lower, perhaps 180,000.
Perhaps partitioning Iraq will be the solution. The Turks and Iranians are unlikely to be happy.

 

As far as Iraq being a GWB/Dick Cheney/. . . problem, it is true that they are the ones who popped the pimple known as Saddam Hussein, but eventually this pimple had to pop. It should have happened in GW1. In the 10 years between GW1 and GW2, Saddam Hussein did not stop killing people.
It is easy to show a strong and specific link between Saddam Hussein (and his 25 years of murders) and much of the violence and killings in Iraq today. Can anyone show an equivalently strong and specific link between Tsar Nicholas (d. 1917) and the gulags in the 1960’s?
 
That authoritarian governments maintain prison camps, and send "undesirables" to them, is generic.
 
The Shia-Sunni conflict does not involve the West, predates Saddam Hussein, and will continue indefinitely, but Saddam Hussein certainly made the conflict worse in his part of the world. In that part of the world, the culture is different and people have very long memories. It is quite likely that, at least while the generation of the children of the victims of Saddam Hussein live, the violence caused or worsened by him will continue.
 
 
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Plutarch    Arbalest   10/30/2006 5:09:43 PM

“For what it’s worth, the data in your 10/30/2006 3:49:13 PM post points to the primary cause of deaths in Iraq as being sectarian; Iraqi-getting-even-with-Iraqi. It looks like the end-result of the fall of Saddam Hussein (or his successor), whatever the cause, and not specifically US-caused.”

 

This sort of violence should have been taken into account by US war planners when planning a war in a sectarian society held together by violence.  There were concerns that Kosovo would turn violent after the NATO bombings and Afghanistan after the fall of the Taliban, so why weren’t these same concerns voiced and addressed by US war planners? That is a failure of planning by the US. Even if the violence is not US caused and I am not saying any of the violence is US caused; only the US had the military force to stop or curtail the violence. It simply did not have the will.

 

 

“Perhaps the Lancet should have also checked the various news reports, to compare cause-of-death with their data. With data pointing away from the US, I think that the Lancet's number would have been much lower, perhaps 180,000.”

 

The point of the Lancet study was to find all deaths caused by violence in Iraq regardless of the source of that violence; clearly Iraqis are the most responsible for the violence, but the US is responsible for not being able to stop it, for not nipping the insurgency in the bud in 2003, for not stopping the death squads, and for allowing thugs like Sadr to have unprecedented political control in Iraq.  When Shiites are in danger from Sunnis they do not call neither the US Army/Marines, nor the Iraqi Army or police, they call Sadr and he can deliver.

 

“Perhaps partitioning Iraq will be the solution. The Turks and Iranians are unlikely to be happy.”

 

Nobody will be happy with the state of Iraq that’s why there is violence, perhaps partitioning Iraq is the solution, but it will be a bloody partition, nothing like the “Velvet Revolution”.

 

“As far as Iraq being a GWB/Dick Cheney/. . . problem, it is true that they are the ones who popped the pimple known as Saddam Hussein, but eventually this pimple had to pop. It should have happened in GW1. In the 10 years between GW1 and GW2, Saddam Hussein did not stop killing people.

It is easy to show a strong and specific link between Saddam Hussein (and his 25 years of murders) and much of the violence and killings in Iraq today. Can anyone show an equivalently strong and specific link between Tsar Nicholas (d. 1917) a