“October 16, 2006: The British medical journal, The Lancet, has again turned over its pages to political propaganda pretending to be science. The latest report claims that a very flawed survey of the Iraqi population proves that military and terrorist operations have killed over 600,000 Iraqis in the past three years. Several things should be noted. First, the normal death rate of the Iraqi population would leave about 550,000 dead since early 2003. Second, the terrorist, and counter-terrorist, violence in Iraq is largely restricted to four of the 18 provinces. About a third of the population is involved, mainly because Baghdad is a principal battleground. But the Lancet study implies that a third of the population has suffered these losses, which means over seven percent of the people living in that area would have died since 2003. That's a lot of bodies. Where are they? Where are the standards required for statistics and data in a study like this? No matter, the Lancet did a similar study in 2004, just before the U.S. presidential elections. That study was eventually discredited, just as the recent one will be.”
In my post in the Lancet threat - that is apparently being held captive in Area 51 – I posited that half the population was suffering these “655,000” killed. That was simply a ballpark wiff but Strategy page has provided better totals with the same insight. A region with 7.5% killed – violently – would make for some significant migration figures. In my city of 200,000, 7.5% would mean 15,000 headless bodies turning in trailer parks, hundreds of potholes with adjacent shrapnel damaged buildings and a thriving u-haul franchise. Not that Baghdad is not suffering many deaths, but when does a level of killing impact society to a major degree.
Dunnigan has written that military units will break after a predictable number of casualties. When does a society break? I am most interested in an analysis of the effect that the casualties and anticipated duration will have on Iraq. Maybe four million more exit visas for Sunnis will quell the violence.
http://www.hrw.org/reports/199...
http://www.photius.com/wfb2000...
A new study has been released by the Lancet medical journal estimating over 650,000 excess deaths in Iraq. The Iraqi mortality estimates published in the Lancet in October 2006 imply, among other things, that:
If these assertions are true, they further imply:
In the light of such extreme and improbable implications, a rational alternative conclusion to be considered is that the authors have drawn conclusions from unrepresentative data. In addition, totals of the magnitude generated by this study are unnecessary to brand the invasion and occupation of Iraq a human and strategic tragedy.
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