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Subject: Where for art tho Lancet threads?
EW3    10/14/2006 6:52:31 PM
Is SP getting hacked.
We've had 1 thread lock up so it can't be posted to.
And the two replacement threads hacked.
Seems like right after sheck makes cogent points about the fallacy of the report, the thread he does it on disappears.
 
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PlatypusMaximus       3/14/2007 2:29:10 PM
Do you have *any* notion of what kind of escort convoy it takes to go head out to Sadr City, Sulemainiya or Fallujah and chit-chat with the family of every single shopkeeper who didnt come home from work that day?
 
 
It just takes will.
 
 
"
Sadr City Base One of Baghdad's Largest
Fadhila Attacked for Corruption; Mass Graves in South
By ZEYAD 03/09/2007 01:09 AM ET
The Scoop from Key Arabic-Language Websites

Al-Melaf cites a senior security official that said U.S. troops are in the process of building one of the largest military bases in Baghdad in the middle of Sadr City, the Mahdi Army’s stronghold. The source said that U.S. military officers met with city elders who overwhelmingly approved the U.S. decision, which they said would largely improve security in their district. According to the website, construction of the base will start soon and will employ a large number of the city’s impoverished youth.

The Al-Shaheed Organization reports the discovery of a new mass grave during the construction of a new school in the industrial Iskan district........"
 
 
iraqslogger.com/index.php/post/1818/Sadr_City_Base_One_of_Baghdads_Largest
 
 
 
If you need any other answers, like how many people died from war-related violence in Iraq today, I could spend a couple seconds finding that out as well. It may be usefull information that could help you extrapolate an actual figure...Or, you could just pay attention every day and then add them all up....
 
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PlatypusMaximus       3/14/2007 2:37:38 PM
265 dead in the last 4 weeks. You'd think people clining on to those grossly exaggerated numbers would be jumping for joy with victory in sight.
 
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swhitebull       3/14/2007 2:43:02 PM

265 dead in the last 4 weeks. You'd think people clining on to those grossly exaggerated numbers would be jumping for joy with victory in sight.


Ignore Button Off
 
Powerlineblog.com:
Quantifying Progress in Baghdad

Iraqi officials today released data on violence in Baghdad since the "surge" began a month ago:

In an upbeat assessment of the first 30 days of the security plan, Iraqi military spokesman Brigadier Qassim Moussawi said the number of Iraqis killed by violence in Baghdad since February 14 was 265, down from 1,440 killed in the previous month.

The number of car bombings, a favorite weapon used by suspected Sunni Arab militants fighting the Shi'ite-led government, was down to 36 from 56, Moussawi told reporters.

 

That's more than an 80% reduction in fatalities in Baghdad, obviously a good start for the new strategy. The Iraqi official said that violence had increased in areas outside of Baghdad, presumably because terrorists had left the city. No numbers were given for the increase in areas outside the capital.

It's obviously relevant to know the extent to which increased violence outside Baghdad has offset improvements within the city, but pacifying Baghdad, a task many considered close to impossible, is important in and of itself. Violence outside Baghdad over the last couple of years has actually been lower than most people realize; it was the violence in the capital that caused many to fear that the Iraqi government couldn't function. If Baghdad can be secured, the Iraqi government should have time to continue addressing the terrorist threat in other areas of the country.

 
Ignore Button Back ON
 
 
swhitebull
 
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eu4ea       3/14/2007 9:27:42 PM

Do you have *any* notion of what kind of escort convoy it takes to go head out to Sadr City, Sulemainiya or Fallujah and chit-chat with the family of every single shopkeeper who didnt come home from work that day?

It just takes will.
 
"
Sadr City Base One of Baghdad's Largest

Fadhila Attacked for Corruption; Mass Graves in South

By ZEYAD 03/09/2007 01:09 AM ET

The Scoop from Key Arabic-Language Websites

Al-Melaf cites a senior security official that said U.S. troops are in the process of building one of the largest military bases in Baghdad in the middle of Sadr City, the Mahdi Army’s stronghold. The source said that U.S. military officers met with city elders who overwhelmingly approved the U.S. decision, which they said would largely improve security in their district. According to the website, construction of the base will start soon and will employ a large number of the city’s impoverished youth.
The Al-Shaheed Organization reports the discovery of a new mass grave during the construction of a new school in the industrial Iskan district........"

iraqslogger.com/index.php/post/1818/Sadr_City_Base_One_of_Baghdads_Largest
 
If you need any other answers, like how many people died from war-related violence in Iraq today, I could spend a couple seconds finding that out as well. It may be usefull information that could help you extrapolate an actual figure...Or, you could just pay attention every day and then add them all up....

"Just takes will"?  Right - Will...  Bob, Mark, the rest of the squad and a minimum of three escort vehicles, at least one of which must be armed with a 50 cal or greater weapon. 

Not making it up, those are the actual rules for going outside of the wire for anything at all, even just meeting with a local contractor or whatever.  To think that we could actually pop out to check out every story of a missing shopkeeper, a family killed in their home at night or a car-repair mechanic who disapeared is fantasy, pure and simple. 

Re: we're building a large and no doubt extremely well-fortified military base in Sadr city... Just what do you think that proves?  That a 2 million person slum is somehow "safe" or that it would now become so? 

Re: that you can just read the paper, add it up in the back of a napkin & figure out how many people died in Iraq today... that would actually be funny, if it werent so deluded.

I suppose you actually believe you'd get an accurate count that way, just like if you were in, say, East Timor during the war and picked up a paper on your way to get breakfast.  From that, you'd know *exactly* what happened in the entire country the previous night, right?
Heart,

eu4ea

 
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PlatypusMaximus       3/14/2007 10:08:57 PM
Not *exactly*....just a helluva lot better than YOU. (see above)
 
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Plutarch       3/14/2007 11:13:28 PM

265 dead in the last 4 weeks. You'd think people clining on to those grossly exaggerated numbers would be jumping for joy with victory in sight.


  Screwy math; even the AP count is higher than that; 705 in Baghdad alone since Feb. 14th.  That doesn't include other places that have seen an increase since the Surge; Balad, Kirkuk, Mosul, etc.
 
 
 
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Plutarch    One week in Baghdad   3/14/2007 11:40:39 PM

03/13/07

BAGHDAD - A Katyusha rocket landed on the commercial street of Karrada in central Baghdad, killing two people and wounding two others, police said. Another police source put the death toll at four, with four wounded.

2

0

2

03/13/07

BAGHDAD - A roadside bomb killed one person and wounded two people in northern Baghdad, police said.

1

0

1

03/13/07

BAGHDAD - A total of 15 bodies with gunshot wounds were found on Monday in different districts of Baghdad, police said.

15

0

15

03/13/07

BAGHDAD - Gunmen killed four worshippers and wounded another in a drive-by shooting as they left a small Sunni Muslim mosque in Risala in southern Baghdad, police sources said. Another police source put the death toll at five.

4

0

4

03/13/07

BAGHDAD - Gunmen opened fire at a police vehicle killing three policemen and wounding two in Zayuna district in eastern Baghdad, police said.

0

3

3

03/13/07

BAGHDAD - Gunmen opened fire on the car of a judge named Omar Abdul Nabi in Karrada in central Baghdad, killing him and two other people and wounding one person, a police source said.

3

0

3

03/13/07

BAGHDAD - The bodies of 17 people were found in different parts of Baghdad, a police source said.

17

0

17

 

03/11/07

BAGHDAD - A car bomb attack in Baghdad’s central Karrada district killed 31 Shia devotees and wounded 25 more as their convoy returned from Karbala...Of the wounded, five were in critical condition, according to a medic at Baghdad’s Ibn Nafis hospital.

31

0

31

03/11/07

BAGHDAD - A car bomb parked on the side of the road killed one Iraqi soldier and wounded another in the Yarmouk district of western Baghdad, police said.

0

1

1

03/11/07

BAGHDAD - A suicide bomber in a minibus killed 10 people and wounded eight between Talbiya Bridge and Mustansiriya Square, in an area of northeastern Baghdad near the Shi'ite militia stronghold of Sadr City, a police source said.

10

0

10

03/11/07

BAGHDAD - A total of 20 bodies were found shot dead on Sunday in different districts of Baghdad, police said.

20

0

20

03/11/07

BAGHDAD - Gunmen killed Amar al-Zigam, a local tribal leader, in a drive-by shooting in Shula district of western Baghdad, police said.

1

0

1

 

03/10/07

BAGHDAD - A Katyusha rocket killed one pilgrim and wounded five others when it landed in Baghdad's Shi'ite Kadhimiya district, police sources said.

1

0

1

03/10/07

BAGHDAD - A roadside bomb killed one civilian and wounded two others when it blew up in a central Baghdad intersection, police said.

1

0

1

03/10/07

BAGHDAD - A suicide car bomber killed one soldier and wounded two others when he blew up his vehicle at an Iraqi Army checkpoint in western Baghdad's Jamia district, police said.

0

1

1

03/10/07

BAGHDAD - A suicide car bomber killed six Iraqi soldiers and wounded some 20 civilians when his car was stopped by a military checkpoint at an entrance to the Shi'ite slum of Sadr City, the U.S. military said.

0

6

6

03/10/07

BAGHDAD - Gunmen killed two pilgrims and wounded four when they attacked their vehicle near Sadr City, police said.

2

0

2

03/10/07

BAGHDAD - Gunmen opened fire on a police patrol in the Abu Ghraib district on the western outskirts of Baghdad, killing one policeman and two civilians, a police source said.

2

1

3

03/10/07

BAGHDAD - The bodies of 15 people were found shot dead in different parts of Baghdad on Saturday, a police source said

15

0

15

03/10/07

BAGHDAD - U.S. forces opened fire on a car they said failed to stop at a checkpoint in Adhamiya in northern Baghdad, killing three people and wounding three on Friday.

3

0

3

 

03/09/07

BAGHDAD - Ten bodies were found shot dead in different parts of Baghdad on Friday, apparent victims of sectarian death squads, a police source said.

10

0

10

 

03/07/07

BAGHDAD - A car bomb in Saidiya in southern Baghdad killed seven Shi'ite pilgrims and a policeman, a police source said.

7

1

8

03/07/07

BAGHDAD - Gunmen targeting Shi'ite Muslim pilgrims killed one pilgrim and wounded three others in the Nahdha area of central Baghdad, police said.

1

0

1

03/07/07

BAGHDAD - Gunmen wounded six pilgrims in Baghdad as they were heading to the holy city of Kerbala to commemorate the Arbain, the end of 40 days of mourning since Ashura, which marks the death of Prophet Mohammad's grandson in 680, police said.

6

0

6

03/07/07

BAGHDAD - Insurgents ambushed Shi'ite Muslim pilgrims in southern Baghdad, killing seven and wounding 27 with a roadside bomb, police sources said.

7

0

7

03/07/07

Baghdad - Police found 10 corpses all over the capital in the following neighborhoods: 3 in Amil, 2 in Baia, 1 in Mansour, 1 in Taji, 2 in Dora and 1 in Saidiyah.

10

0

10

03/07/07

Baghdad - Twelve Iraqi National Police and 10 Iraqi civilians were killed in a car bomb attack on a checkpoint in southern Baghdad Mar. 7.

10

12

22

 
 
From AP/Reuters news compliations, and the news agencies had the lowest estimates from 2006, off by two-thirds of what the morgues and the UN stated.
 
 
 
 
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PlatypusMaximus       3/15/2007 12:44:38 PM
You wouldn't know screwy math if it ran you over with a truck. (see above)
 
The UN report has been branded as "grossly exaggerated" by the very source that provided it to the UN.
 ...maybe that needs repeated.
The UN report has been branded as "grossly exaggerated" by the very source that provided it to the UN.
The UN report has been branded as "grossly exaggerated" by the very source that provided it to the UN.
The UN report has been branded as "grossly exaggerated" by the very source that provided it to the UN.
 
 
 That screwy math is the sole reason that official figures are no longer available.
 
... Still you'll cling to the worst possible number you were fed and just accept it as gospel. Say 100...even better 115+...are dying every day...minimum.. I dare you. you're just palin wrong. Happens to the best of them. It's no rose garden and the last half of 06 was brutal by any standards... but you've got the wrong number from the wrong source (the UN is not the source of that info).
 
Quote    Reply

swhitebull    How About Working With These Numbers   3/15/2007 1:23:41 PM
 
 
    link
 
 
swhitebull - their methodology link is at the lower left corner
 
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Plutarch    PM Response   3/15/2007 1:41:26 PM

You wouldn't know screwy math if it ran you over with a truck. (see above)

 

This from the guy who doesn’t know the difference between Dominica and the Dominican Republic (see above)

 

 

The UN report has been branded as "grossly exaggerated" by the very source that provided it to the UN.

 ...maybe that needs repeated.

The UN report has been branded as "grossly exaggerated" by the very source that provided it to the UN.

The UN report has been branded as "grossly exaggerated" by the very source that provided it to the UN.

The UN report has been branded as "grossly exaggerated" by the very source that provided it to the UN

 

 

That’s funny because the same organization provided numbers that were not questioned by authorities for the Congo, Rwanda, Darfur, Bosnia, Afghanistan, etc.  The Iraqi government states the number from the UN is “grossly exaggerated” even though it gave them the numbers, but then doesn’t explain why the UN would “grossly exaggerate” the numbers. 

 

 That screwy math is the sole reason that official figures are no longer available

 

No the reason the official figures are no longer available is because they make the Iraqi government look bad.

 

Still you'll cling to the worst possible number you were fed and just accept it as gospel. Say 100...even better 115+...are dying every day...minimum.. I dare you. you're just palin wrong. Happens to the best of them. It's no rose garden and the last half of 06 was brutal by any standards... but you've got the wrong number from the wrong source (the UN is not the source of that info).

 

No the worst possible numbers I could “cling to” are the Lancet numbers.  The numbers the UN used are the same numbers that Brookings uses to track civilian deaths in Iraq.  The UN got their info from hospitals and the Medical Legal Institute of Baghdad, and the Iraqi government didn’t have a problem with their count until Oct. 2006 when violence escalated in Iraq, and naturally more dead bodies started showing up.

 

So let me ask you then PM which of the four separate sets of numbers of civilian deaths provided by the Iraqi government for 2006 do you believe is accurate?  Do you think the Iraqi government has a vested interest in keeping as low as possible the number of dead civilians?  Do you think that the Iraqi government is above corruption, and that the Health Ministry, run by Sadrists  (or was) would  never intentionally undercount dead civilians?   Or do you think that “official” numbers from an entity that can’t provide basic security and infrastructure demands in the middle of a confusing and violent conflict might be off a little?
 
 
Here's the link:
 
 
 
 
 
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PlatypusMaximus       3/15/2007 2:55:29 PM
Cheese-n-Crackers, Plutard. I can spend all day trying to out-encyclopedia and idiot.
Scoll up. Yes I was wrong, you keep that in mind in case we ever start a thread about those nations. I was wrong. Now, can we get you to admit that your 100/day average, totalling 150,000, came up when Sadr's goon disgorged it off he top of his head; The very next day? And, will you admit that you personally threw in 43,000 deaths that exist nowhere except in your post? Can you answer that without a question? Scroll up to november 9th when that press conference was given. Maybe that was the average that week, that month, or whatever, but your total figure, and his, comes from *nothing* more than taking the worst of the worst and extrapolating it for the entire lengthh of the war.  I could be persuaded to believe that the UN has a vested interest in catastrophe, as evidenced by their looking for a payday to care for the starving refugees that they would need to care for at the immediate onset of this war...according to their report.
Not that you could convince me that their any less corrupt than any Iraqi gov't I've ever seen. I didn't realize that October violence was up...from what? the 100/day average to the 100/day average?  That's the highest possible number...Lancet isn't possible. C'mon back down to reality, buddy. We're not extremely far below you, but definatley below you, to anybody with half a brayne.
 
Peace
 
 
Quote    Reply

PlatypusMaximus       3/15/2007 2:57:07 PM
Lol. Obviously I CAN'T spend all day.....
 
 
Busy enough with my own idiocy.
 
Quote    Reply

Plutarch       3/15/2007 3:42:42 PM

Cheese-n-Crackers, Plutard. I can spend all day trying to out-encyclopedia and idiot.

Scoll up. Yes I was wrong, you keep that in mind in case we ever start a thread about those nations. I was wrong. Now, can we get you to admit that your 100/day average, totaling 150,000, came up when Sadr's goon disgorged it off he top of his head; The very next day? And, will you admit that you personally threw in 43,000 deaths that exist nowhere except in your post? Can you answer that without a question? Scroll up to November 9th when that press conference was given. Maybe that was the average that week, that month, or whatever, but your total figure, and his, comes from *nothing* more than taking the worst of the worst and extrapolating it for the entire length of the war.  I could be persuaded to believe that the UN has a vested interest in catastrophe, as evidenced by their looking for a payday to care for the starving refugees that they would need to care for at the immediate onset of this war...according to their report.

Not that you could convince me that their any less corrupt than any Iraqi gov't I've ever seen. I didn't realize that October violence was up...from what? the 100/day average to the 100/day average?  That's the highest possible number...Lancet isn't possible. C'mon back down to reality, buddy. We're not extremely far below you, but definitely below you, to anybody with half a brayne.

 

Peace

 



.
 
The Health Munster's comments about 150,000 dead civilians is just an example of how unsure the Iraqi government is about how many civilians have been killed in Iraq.  He has direct knowledge of the violence in Iraq , and he made the comment to contrast the Lancet report:
 
""Since three and a half years, since the change of the Saddam regime, some people say we have 600,000 are killed. This is an exaggerated number. I think 150 is OK," he said. "
 
Is he right?  Maybe, maybe not...but it's a number that's out there, and hasn't been retracted.
 
"Methodologies Used to Count Casualties

There are three estimates generally used to calculate the number of Iraqi civilians killed by post-war violence:

  • The Iraqi government. It relies on data from the Ministry of Health, hospitals, and the Baghdad morgue. The government's casualty count of violent deaths since April 2003 was roughly fifty thousand as of last June, but the Iraqi health minister estimated last November the total number of civilians dead was somewhere between 100,000 and 150,000. Experts say that number is probably an underestimate because many Muslims in Iraq bury their dead without going through an undertaker or hospital.
  • The United Nations. The UN's figure for the civilian body count, much like the Iraqi government's, relies on information from hospitals, morgues, and municipalities in Iraq but also takes into account casualty reports from Iraq's Ministry of Interior; it found that 34,452 Iraqi civilians had died because of violence in 2006.
  • IraqBodyCount. This independent organization catalogues its casualties by looking at the number reported killed by confirmed news reports. The group calculates about 62,000 civilians have died from violence in Iraq since April 2003, with the caveat that its findings are low-ball estimates because not all deaths are obviously reported. Some epidemiologists say only around 10 percent of the deaths in Iraq are described in newspapers."
           www.cfr.org/publication/12811/
 
Let's throw out Lancet as it's numbers are too high, so that leaves us with the above three numbers.
 
The lowest number out there is Iraq Body Count with 62,000+, and they freely admit that the number is low-balled.  If it's off by a third  then the death toll is about 85,000  or about 60 per day. If they are off by half then the death toll is 130,000 or 85 per day, if they are off by two-thirds then we're close to 200,000 or over a 100 per day.  Even if they're not off by that much as a point of comparison during Saddam's regime an estimated 34 Iraqis were killed per day by political violence; so by the standard of actually improving the lives of Iraqis we are not doing a good job of it.
 
The point is that no one knws what the true level of civilian deaths is only that the number has been increasing since 2003 and that it is a greater number (per day) than died under Saddam.
 
BTW---The number I threw out there was 55,0000 and it's the estimated number of insurgents killed which is a separate count from civilians.  I know you're a busy guy PM so thanks for taking the time to respond to my idiot posts.
 

 
 
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PlatypusMaximus       3/15/2007 4:03:53 PM
55,000 dead insurgents are estimates from liberal and socialist websites that are just as clouded as you are. 55,000 insurgents killed or detained was the number the US military released some time before idiots decided to cling onto to in order to support their argument that is based not upon who has the best information, or what's the proper way of gathering it, but soley upon a formula that an idiot would call idiotic, if not hearsay. Thank you sir, for your appreciation. You keep setting 'em up, I'll keep knocking 'em down.
 
Quote    Reply

Plutarch       3/15/2007 4:25:53 PM

55,000 dead insurgents are estimates from liberal and socialist websites that are just as clouded as you are. 55,000 insurgents killed or detained was the number the US military released some time before idiots decided to cling onto to in order to support their argument that is based not upon who has the best information, or what's the proper way of gathering it, but soley upon a formula that an idiot would call idiotic, if not hearsay. Thank you sir, for your appreciation. You keep setting 'em up, I'll keep knocking 'em down.



Thanks I realize where the number came from, just wasn't sure you were aware, and I was merely clarifying it for you.
 
In the future though I would appreciate more civil discourse, I don't think I label you an "idiot", or call you names, only responding to your insults with pointing out your confusion over Domincia/Domincian Republic.  If you don't have an argument than I'd prefer you to not  respond, rather than throw insults around. 
 
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