Going Out With A Bang, Or A Whimper?

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ker 7/6/2009 4:36:24 PM

Yugoslavia's War of Devolution were moderated by N.A.T.O. involvement. Iraq's War of Devolution didn't quite happen, again due to intervention of Western forces. (Would Saddam still rule if OIF had not happened or would other events intervened?) Iran should not expect similar assistance. Too many square miles and too many mountains. Not enough success on the part of the Kurdish fighters (absence of a no fly zone).

Wile Americans won't be buying in to the game AQ or it's cousins will. Not a pretty future. There are worse things than an American occupation.

Nukes are a side show. Clean up of facility and mobile materials are issues but there frosting and not cake. In the end the Iranian Nuke ambition will look far more like that South Africa's than that of, say, India. It's Decadence.

We have seen Iran play the IED game on offense. How will they play defense? Will they have the quality of personnel and material to emulate American responses or will they just send out children with garden implements and a song in their hearts? They have done it before.

When the big question is "will you obey this government to prevent a war?" you get large numbers of passive people. When events change questions people behave differently. "Will you obey this government now that they have failed to prevent civil war?" is a question that provokes a very different response.

Putting sticks in the streets is considerably easier than keeping the lights on and gas available for sale in the stations. How robust is Iran's drinking watter infrastructure?

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Moon Man More than 20 Killed 7/7/2009 9:35:17 PM

I'd just like to note that the "20" dead is the "official" figure, and probably it's only that high because close to twenty people have actually been filmed being killed and been uploaded to the Net.

About a week after the election Hospitals in Tehran were reporting 30-40 killed, and they were just the ones that made it to the hospital. Reports have been saying that the Authorities are taking bodies out of the hospitals and the streets to hide the number of people killed. The final toll will probably be closer to a hundred, maybe even more.

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cwDeici 7/9/2009 10:19:17 AM

I'd just like to note that the "20" dead is the "official" figure, and probably it's only that high because close to twenty people have actually been filmed being killed and been uploaded to the Net.

My personal estimate would be hundredds killed, thousands wounded and jailed.

Great post Ker!

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cwDeici 7/9/2009 10:21:11 AM

That's several thousand wounded AND several thousand imprisoned of course, though I guess you can double up the wounded category for anyone who has to go to prison.

I know some Christians who've been to Iranian jail and torture. They're real mean.

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cwDeici 7/10/2009 2:10:30 PM

The Iranian legal system and jailors that is. They like to beat up dissidents who'd rather be elsewhere for some reason. Maybe afraid they'll come back some day or raise the truth about them outside.

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ker 7/13/2009 4:06:00 PM

My personal estimate would be hundredds killed, thousands wounded and jailed.

Great post Ker!

Well I made one eror. The mine clearing children ( called Rangers or something like that after transaltion ) didn't have that much in the way of garden implements. They had uniforms and boots. This was in the latter stages of the Iran Iraq war.

As for a roll of marters from the protests lets just say it's big enough.

I talk to a guy last week who said there were truck loads of boddys hauled out of the citys. But I should say that he was talking about the rioits after MLK was shoot (1968). Probbly exageration.

What interests me more than the number killed already is the hit lists the goverment is finalizing. You can kill some of the people all of the time but you can't kill all of the people all of the time or no one will taxes. This could be seen as reeling in a fish with out braking the line. Better restrain a little during the event and then make up for it slowly over time. That way there is no satelight photo evedence of trucks full of boddys. No one witness knows the scope of the whole oporation.

Thanks cwDeici

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