I don't believe this 'gift' when and if it occurs (though I find it likely) will be a gift to Iran, more likely a punishment.

Their nation has sinned greatly after all, but it is not our decision what they will get, but Gods.

But maybe when it comes they'll turn from evil?

Change, even punishment, could reform Iran...

Divine Change or Punishment that is...

 

I wonder if worldly punishment would work or perhaps be a tool of divine punishment?

This will certainly come to head unless the Iranian people successfully rebel within the next few years. There's just not enough time. Israel will go at Iran if it tests a warhead... that is if there are any brave and aggressive Israelis left by then (they seem to be increasing from a horrid low-point).

Israel will go at Iran if it tests a warhead... that is if there are any brave and aggressive Israelis left by then.

here is my scenario for the future

 

Iran will get the bomb, and publicly test it.  Nothing happens as the world sits around with its finger up it's butt because nobody is willing to be the target of everyone else's complaints if they play the heavy and hammer Iran.

 

Next the rest of the middle east countries obtains bombs to defend themselves from Iran, most likely by purchase from Pakistan.

 

Then Hezbollah detonates a nuke in Tel Aviv obtained from an unknown source.  Israel responds by launching most of their nuclear arsenal at all possible suspects (probably every Muslim country in reach except Jordan and Turkey).  In response the Muslim countries launch all their nukes, at everyone so that their enemies (especially neighboring Muslim countries) will not be strong enough to take advantage of their weakness.

 

The resulting nuclear spasm destroys most of the middle eastern oil production, so Russia wins.

 

Any comments?

Israel isn't going to wait for Iran to test a bomb. Israel isn't going to wait for Obama to go "make nice" with them and then withdraw American forces from the region. Israel is going to attack them before the inauguration (and with deniable US help - especially the new bunker busting bombs). They will attack when the Iranians least expect it - probably during Hanukkah.

 

Hey The Great,

You been drinking and just being funny right? I mean, no one on this planet could actually think Europe is gonna deal with anyone or anything could they? You are talking about the same Europe that can't even hold up its end of the deal in Afghanistan right? The ones that can barely muster 30K troops for that, but yet you think they could *crush* Iran? I think unless they do plan on useing their nukes, which we all know they are not, they best leave the serious stuff to the Americans and Israelis.

Your doomsday scenario is interesting, but unlikely.  I don't think the Israelis will even allow the Persians (which is what Iranians really consider themselves) to get far enough in their nuclear research to test a nuclear warhead.  Heck, they attacked the Iraqis and Syrians for even building nuclear reactors.  Probably the only reason the Israelis haven't attacked Iranian nuclear facilities already is because of the great distance to Iran and the logistical hurdles that would have to be breached.  Political issues are another concern.  A lot of Israelis like to believe that they don't really need the United States in order to survive, but more pragmatic Israelis in the goverment and the military realize that without the United States life could get a lot tougher and scarier. 

Currently I believe American presidential politics are more than likely playing a pivotal role in Israeli plans to stop Iran's nuclear weapons program.  An Israeli attack on Iran right now would undercut President Bush's Middle East policy and lend creedence to statements from Barack Obama the the war in Iraq has only served to strengthen Iran.  By extension this would hurt McCain and probably deliver the election to Obama.  Even a smashingly successful Israeli attack could end up helping Obama.  If Obama is elected in November, I would expect Israel's military planners to go into full gear to prepare for an attack on Iranian nuclear facilities before the inauguration in January.  For all his big talk about not allowing Iran to possess nuclear weapons, I seriously doubt that Obama has the actual testicular fortitude to use the military to destroy Iran's nuclear weapons testing facilities.  McCain has no such reservations, and I think both the Iranians and the Israelis know this. 

For all his big talk about not allowing Iran to possess nuclear weapons, I seriously doubt that Obama has the actual testicular fortitude to use the military to destroy Iran's nuclear weapons testing facilities.

Actually, Obama probably will have the "testicular fortitude" to use the military at least once.  If we are lucky it will be against Iran.

Leaders without military experience, particularly in a society like the US where the military is under tight control, tend to regard the military as a sort of magic wand that can do anything.  But after the first time something does not go as anticipated they get scared and become unresponsive unless the planners (both political and military) can guarantee them a sure thing.  This is what happened during the Clinton regime.

I think the Israeli's will go after Iran and will do it because of what Warnerd postulates: that Hezbollah or some Palestinian group will try to get a warhead into the country.  Obama will not offer them support, which means the Israeli's are planning this right now, to do it before Obama is inaugurated...Jak267's timing sounds well considered. The world will love to rail against the Israeli's but in reality most everyone will be relieved. 

 

For the longer term, my hope is that the Israeli's will perceive the difference between supporting their right to exist and supporting their radical Zionists. 

For the longer term, my hope is that the Israeli's will perceive the difference between supporting their right to exist and supporting their radical Zionists. 

 

The radical Zionists are Israel's equivalent of 'al Sadr', and like him they are tolerated because they control the 'swing votes' to select the ruling party in parliament.  They are not popular with any of the major parties, and if the ruling coalition can ever survive without them, or decides that they cannot survive with them, there will be a hard crackdown.

 

Based on the last couple of years the process has already started.