Turkey vs. Greece who better?

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Geezer 4/22/2009 12:59:57 PM

Turkey has 210 F-16 Block 30/40/50

Greece has 100 Block52+ and 60 Block 30/50 F-16.

One might think, OK, 210 F-16 against 160 thats a big differnce but...

A Block52+ F-16 has a better MMC, better engines thus thrust/weight ratio, better radar with 33% extented detection range, conformal fuel tanks, Link 16, head-mounted display with IRIS-T missiles.

If you still don't get it, i will make it easier for you...

--Block 52+ (the core f-16 version in HAF) will be detecting and engaging in BVR the TUAF's older F-16 blocks much earlier. THe TUAF f-16 will be receiving AMRAAMS before even detecting the core HAF f-16s.
--The conformal fule tanks will offer more mission time, without the aerodynamics and weapon load compromises of the external fuel tanks.
--HMD+IRIS-T offer a significant advantage on dogfights, with a much larger cone of missile engagement. TUAF does not have a clue on how to deal with such a system, since its introduction changes the dogfight concept fundamentally.
--The link16 offers easy connectivity with the 4 HAF EMB-145 Erieyes (already fully operational), forming a formitable interception system with advanced tactical capabilities that the TUAF does not have, yet.]

In addition Greece has 45 Mirages2000. Namely 25 M2000-5 Mk2 and 20 EGM3/BGM, able of carrying MICA, R550, 530D, Exocets and Scalp-EG (90 in the greek inventory).

So we look at 210 "modern" fighters against 205, with the last having significant qualitative advantage.

When we speak of a stronger or larger TUAF, we refer to a numerical advantage not on modern fighters but on really old aircraft.

TUAF has 52 upgrated F-4E 2020 Terminator, air-to-ground oriented. 40 F-5 2000 and another 100-140 old F-4E.

On the other hand HAF deploys 45 A-7 and 35 upgrated F-4E PI2000, air-to-air oriented, fit with new radar, avionics, structural upgrated, and capable opf firing AMRAAMS and IRIS-T.

So the quantative advantage of TUAF now is more clear, it is an advantage only on old aircraft and not on modern fighters. The declaration of quantative edge over qualitative edge must be put up with this in mind.
We are just looking at 100+something more old planes, and one has to struggle to put up some logic on how this will be a force multiplier on a possible Greece-Turkey conflict.

Now think again the almost inexistent ground-to-air cababilities of the Turks and the respective advanced such capabilities of the Greeks, that deploy a huge variety of systems such as S-300, Patriot, OSA-8, TOR-M1, Crotale NG, Improved HAWK, SKYGUARD (AIM-7).
Coverage of HAWKS, Patriot and S-300:
link /> In the islands and in mainland there is a layer of TOR-M1, OSA-8 and Crotale NG as well ;-)
Try also to guess the detection range of Aegean island-based radars deep into Turkey and what this means in terms of early warning.

Both the Aegean islands (the theatre of a possible confilct) and all major Greek military and industrial installations are heavily defended by these systems.
On the other hand the Turkish installations are "naked", the Scalp-EGs (and future Scalp navalles) will be "partying" on turkish airfileds, industry, etc, striking a dreadfull infastrucure blow in a few minutes.
Try to imagine the Bosporus bridges, major industrial areas, airfields, etc, blown to pieces in the first few hours of a conflict, will Turkey be able to suffer such a blow?

What will the Turks be able to destroy in Greece? A number of Aegean island installations? Who cares? Will they be able to hit the industrial areas of Athens or Thessaloniki? or the major airforce and naval bases?

The debate can continue for long if you include the Navies and armies as well, but i am sticking to airforces since the conflict will be judged on air as it seems.

Now, the thoughts of the user "pseudocode" are very logical, but i think he lacks of information on Greek economy and its nature, thus his declaration is somewhat doomed to inaccuracy. Greece generates revenues mostly from services and not from industry+low wages as Turkey does.

Almost all Greek industrial operations that need cheap labour are placed in the Balkan countries, also a vast portion of services (telecoms, finance, etc) are spread on Balkans, some even in... Turkey.

In the most possible scenario, that is a conflict of some days, the Turks have more to loose from infstructure destruction. And take again into account that Greeks can defend their infrastrucure really effectivelly, not only by interceptions but with point defence as well, while the Turks are "naked" in this respect, only the infastructure deep into Anatolia will be safe due to distance. major economic areas such as Istanbul or Izmir will be pounded.

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Geezer 4/22/2009 1:28:52 PM

Again i am stressing that we are talking about a few days conflict.

There is not even a chance of Greece attacking first. It will start probably with the application of turkish "casus beli" on teritorial waters extention or by a "grey zone" incident as in 1996.

We are looking at a TUAF raid on military installation and an amphibious operation with many branches in a number of Greek islands as diversion.

In my opinion it all comes down in how is going to gain air-superiority in the first hours of the conflict.

But i think in a balanced situation the Turks will be able to land some troops at least to a couple of Greek islands.

All Greek islands have mixed composition Battalions on them with the task of fending off an amphibious operations. These have battle tanks which the Turks will not be able to land initially. Also OSA-8 and ASRAAD are defending the skies.
It all comes up to whether the Greek will be able to reinforce the island defences before they are anihilated.

All this will last for a few days. The victor will be the one that will get a better deal on the negotiations forced later.

Both Turkey and Greece are NATO members and NATO will not tolerate a long conflict by no means. Also Greece is an EU member and has a strong strategic alliance with France and Russia in a much lesser extend.

The short duration of the conflict is eminent, it is at least stupid to debate on a major war between Greece and Turkey.

The manpower etc will play no role. What one needs firstly is a modern airforce wil advanced cababilities and excellent reaction times.

Following one needs also a logic sized interdisciplinary rapid reation force, well trained, with modern equipment and organization.

Greece seems to have all these, so it stands a very good chance of emerging victorious from a possible Greco-turkish conflict.
The Turks (not the forum ones probably, but their military leaders for sure) comprehent this fact very very well, and thats why the Greek are portrayed as... they are...

Lol Turkey of the 70 millions, Turkey the peripheral power, Turkey the dynamic economy, is being preoccupied by the Greek threat... :-))

Well, i guess -dudging from the Turkish stance- that it should better be, for sure ;-)

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justin Justin 4/28/2009 5:23:07 AM

Firstly, both Turkey and Greece are Nato members and so neither country has an advantage. Turkey has one up on Greece due to a population seven times as large as Greece's .... But Israel is proof that size does not matter but rather leadership and ofcourse best use of arms. Turkey has a major obstacle.... it has internal issues, the Armenians and the Kurds are ready and waiting. Greece has the Aegean islands many fitted with early detection and missile devices so if a Turkish plane happened to make it through it would be very lucky. Greece also has a big and powerful navy. To conclude both Turkey and Greece spend a considerable degree of their GDP on aramaments and ofcourse the US loves this..... imagine if both countries stopped being played and decided to spend a minimum for defence only and began to Turk..... I mean talk.

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strat-T21C 4/28/2009 11:49:18 AM

Greece spends 7 billion on their military and has american weapondry
turkey spends 12 billion and also has american weapondry
both used f-16's but turkey has ordered 100 f-35's not sure what greece is getting i think eurofighters...whose better militarily and who would win in a war (two different questions) and another thing i would like to know who is better trained?

Have the two nations not been holding joint exercises together? I tought relations were improving. Turkey has also made a policy statement regarding the shifting of priority to the East and NorthEast. It's not going to happen(Turkey vs Greece), as for who's better, when I was in Cyprus in '88, the Turks looked more switched on. (just my observation, not a statment of fact to start a arguement).

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french stratege 4/28/2009 1:50:32 PM

Greece has a qualitative edge in training, equipement and is easier to defend

Moreover Turks are only equiped with US equipement , while Greece has more diversified equipement.

US try to maintain a balance between them and Turkey is really important for USA, but not Europeans suppliers

Indeed US delivered roughly same quantity of AMRAAM (small one) but Greece added more BVR missiles by ordering hundreds of MICA from French.

So Greece has 750 modern BVR missiles including 150 AMRAAM C and 300 MIca vs less than 450 for Turks (most A and B versions) and just 100 AMRAAM C on delivery, plus 90 cruise missiles for Greece vs 50 shorter range for Turks

Europeans prefer clearly Greece than Turkey and Greece was accepted in EU.

So Greecs now quite well Turks equipment, has access to best EU technology, while reverse is no true.

I would add that an unknow equipement is more difficult to fight and to jam.

On air force which what matters on this theater, Greece should have the edge like in the past...if they are able to sustain this edge by procuring new systems which is not granted with economic crisis.

Moreover the Turks has also to preserve a part of their forces for their neighbours which are quite more dangerous than Greece neighbors.

So until now, Greece has not a lot to fear.I would not bet a dollar on a Turkish win.

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french stratege 4/28/2009 2:11:19 PM

On a general comment, it is strange that people check number of platforms, even sometimes actual electronic inside (forgetting often ECM), but never check number of sophisticated amnunitions available.

Or force multipliers like AWAC or C4ISR

And this matters a lot.

Especially when you don't produce them yourselves.

It is not granted that the nation which sold them will provide you more from its stockpile in case of war.

Argentinians learn the lessons in Falkland war when they found themselves under embargo while UK freely took more AM9L in NATO stockpiles.

Israel was compelled to beg to Americans some ammuntions in 1973 that USAF delivered, but they had after to comply with US statedepartment requirements to finish the war.

Israel took the lessons and build a missile industry soon after.

Take a country like France which have maybe not much more fighter than Greece or Turkey but have modern and updated ECM for all and 3 time BVR missiles stockpiles than those of Greece or more than 4 time those of Turkey.

France which have 7 time more cruise missiles than Greece and 12 time more than Turkey etc...

Or which have thousands depleted uranium APFSDS shell for Tanks while Greece and Turkey have none?

The same can be said for Briton which have good stockpiles like France...

Number of platform matters, quality, training, planning and ability to sustain operation matters even more...

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Geezer 5/3/2009 5:59:13 AM

Very good points french stratege. But a Greco-Turkish conflict will not be allowed to last for long, so my belief is that both countries have enough missile stockpile. I think both numbers are ok and its more of a quality matter.

The stockpiles are as follow:
GREECE:
&e13;&e21;&e24;-120C-7        130     (curently under delivery)
&e13;&e21;&e24;-120C-5        150
&e13;&e21;&e24;-120B           240
MICA IR/EM       300
R-530D                80
&e13;&e21;&e24;-9&e24;              165
&e13;&e21;&e24;-9L/I-1           300
&e13;&e21;&e24;-9L/I              347
&e13;&e21;&e24;-9J/I-1           400
&e13;&e21;&e24;-9P4            1000
R-550 Magic-2     300
IRIS-T                 350    (curently under delivery)

TURKEY:

&e13;&e21;&e24;-120B          138
&e13;&e21;&e24;-120A          176
AIM-9X              149   (under delivery)
AIM-9S             310
&e13;&e21;&e24;-9&e24;             500
&e13;&e21;&e24;-9L/I            640
AIM-9B             210
&e13;&e21;&e24;-9P3/-9P4    750

(Of course the TUAF has no clue on how to deploy countermeasures against MICA or IRIS-T)

Allow me also to correct myself and say that the turks do have airdefence and they deploy:
Nike-Hercules             72
HAWK Phase II          48
Rapier B1X/FSB1        76/8
Of course the capabilities of the above systems in a modern war enviromenment is debatable, especially in point-defence.

Now, the Greek and French goverments -especially the current administrations- are very close. The French are desperate to export weapon systems so as to minimize productions costs, and the Greeks on the other hand are desperate for political support and diversity of weapon sources.
It is granted (as seen historically the last decades) that a significant proportion of the Greek weapon arsenal is and will be dedicated to French systems. The French understand this very well so they release advanced technology weapons to Greece with no limitations, of course with a high economic tag. Also the French provide political support on all the major Greek issues. I guess its a pretty decent relationship. For example no other country relesed cruise missiles for Greece, the French seem to be able to sell everything to Greece for the right prize.

Also Greece seek partnership in some european weapon systems, based in the local industry capabilities and operational needs of the armed forces. So Greece participated in the IRIS-T program, as well as in the nEUROn program, actively.
Greece, being a small country and economically service-oriented, has nothing to gain by pursueing indigenous weapon systems in large scale. An indegenous weapon system (for a country other than US, UK, Russia, France, etc) means a serious compromise of quality and cost increase if exports are not achieved.
You go indegenous only if you have technological base and know-how, but most importanly if you have a good customer base to keep the costs in logical levels.
So i am not impressed or indimitated in any respect by the turkish claims of local weapons. Generally i am very caucious about turkish procurements cause historically they prove to be highly inconsistent. The various forums are flooded by turkish "projects", huge "procurements", etc, that of course are almost never fully realised, and if so they never meet expectation.
Its a general turkish attitude, just think of the recent "negotiations" for the NATO general secretary... the turks played it tough initially and then they fully conceded (making fools of theirselves)... all for internal political consumption.

Btw, the Rafale will soon have an AESA radar, and this might change the wind in his favor if EF2000 do not make any advance radar-wise.
I am sceptical about the Rafale's dogfighting capabilities (compared to the EF2000) but else Rafale seems to be a well-rounded aircraft.
The French seem desperate to export Rafale, although the Greeks decided (politicaly) to give the French the 4+2 frigate program, the French pressure us for a Rafale buy and they do not seem to be desperate selling us the FREMM.

Now the economic crisis and weapon buys is a complex issue for Greece. The European industry under the crisis needs exports. Greece on the other hand needs low interest loans (with no economic dictations like the IMF's when giving loans..), which can be achieved only with the guarantee of Germany or France. So it is obvious that money is not an issue for Greece even under the crisis. In fact under the crisis the German and French pressure Greece to buy weapons and they offer low interest money not only to fund the weapon buys but to cover the rest Greek economy needs as well.
In the recent visit of the greek PM to France, Sarkozy guaranteed low interest money supply to Greece, and of course Greece reasured the French that a large portion of Greek procurements will be given to french industry. The only thing that keeps our goverment from anouncing contracts (except the BMP-3 which deal is already signed) is the Greek public opinion. If the goverment anounces contracts of billions during the peak of economic crisis, the Greeks will be on the streets again... The funds for our procurements are secured and are included in the national budgets normally, so nothing is really at stake.
Turks on the other hand are happy announcing weapon programs, going to the IMF for multi-billion loans (letting IMF dictate in their economy), while poverty and per capita GDP is still a serious issue in their country... Dreams of becoming a regional power are nice, but living a decent life is much nicer i guess ;-)

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Geezer 5/3/2009 6:04:34 AM

FFS with the fonts... one more try...

GREECE:

&e13;&e21;&e24;-120C-7 130 (curently under delivery)

&e13;&e21;&e24;-120C-5 150

&e13;&e21;&e24;-120B 240

MICA IR/EM 300

R-530D 80

&e13;&e21;&e24;-9&e24; 165

&e13;&e21;&e24;-9L/I-1 300

&e13;&e21;&e24;-9L/I 347

&e13;&e21;&e24;-9J/I-1 400

&e13;&e21;&e24;-9P4 1000

R-550 Magic-2 300

IRIS-T 350 (curently under delivery)

TURKEY:

&e13;&e21;&e24;-120B 138

&e13;&e21;&e24;-120A 176

AIM-9X 149 (under delivery)

AIM-9S 310

&e13;&e21;&e24;-9&e24; 500

&e13;&e21;&e24;-9L/I 640

AIM-9B 210

&e13;&e21;&e24;-9P3/-9P4 750

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french stratege 5/3/2009 8:21:54 AM

Good insight on Greece EU relationships.

Also nice list of air to air missiles procured by both countries (even you have a problem with your fonts)

However it is a list of all missiles procured for the last 40 years at least since we noticed obsolete systems like AIM 9B of the sixties

Both country have about 300 modern or not too old fighters.

Only 200 to 250 could be available in war time.

A missile can not last more than 20 years because of stability of its ageing properlant .Moreover a 20 year electronic is obsolete to ECM.

So we have to rewrite your list with less than 20 years missiles (obvious for AMRAAM)

On BVR we can notice that Greece has already 390 AMRAAM C/B plus 300 Mica plus 130 AMRAAM C7 on delivery which mean soon 820 BVR active guidance missile plus 80 S530 D at the end of their life in few years (semiactive but with outsantding performance).

On the other side Turkey can count only on 314 AMRAAM A/B with the A being a little obsolete

Almost a 3 to 1 ratio which means that a Turk pilot has to go well in the Non Escape Zone to avoid to waste limited amount of missiles.

For WVR missiles we can take in account only recent one i.e delivered in the last 20 years (so 1988)

AIM-9-B/E/J/N/P and even early L are obsoletes

Likely AIM-9-M and Magic 2 plus IRIS-T which means more than 900 missiles for Greece

On the other side Turkey can count only on 500 AIM-9-M plus some X on delivery with the S being of poor efficiency on a modern Greec fighter. (AIM-9S: AIM-9M with IRCCM deleted for Foreign Military Sales customers)

Greec advantage in A to A is enormous and it means that western powers supply Greece to get a constant air superiority on real over Turkish air force.Considering theater like Agean sea it means that Greece will win the war.

Of course USA can resupply Turkey in hours but they would do only if Turkey is attacked by a non NATO nation like Russia or Iran.If Turkey start a war against Greece, Turkey is beaten.

If Greece start a war agaisnt Turkey because of a Turk provocation, it means that days of negociation will occurs between NATO partner and US will not resupply Turkey in initial phase and Greece would be in a strong superiority before a cease fire after 3 days.

Turkey is like a dog with a leash: good on paper but unable to fight Greece without US support.

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french stratege 5/3/2009 8:52:51 AM

The only way for Turkey to limit this dependency would be to build its own defense industry or to procure Israeli systems like the Dervy BVR missile build by Israel to get more freedom to USA (which has delivered only few hundreds of AMRAAM to Israel to limit its freedom of action)

So the good links between Turkey dominiated by its (laic) military and Israel.

h*tp://www.f-16.net/news_article1225.html

We can notice that Turk F16 upgrade requirement includes

The proposed upgraded capabilities will include integration of the Modular Mission Computer, AN/APG-68( V)9 radar, JHMCS, AN/AVS-9, Link-16, Self-Protection Electronic Warfare Suite (SPEWS II), HTS(E), export versions of weapons available on F-16s, plus five additional foreign weapon systems: Infra-Red Improved Sidewinder-TVC (IRIS-T) (Germany) and Penguin (Norway), Python-5 (Israel), Derby (Israel), and Spice (Israel).

However no Derby sales were granted by Israel to Turkey and we can assume:

A)That Isreal used this potential sale as an incitative to be allowed to attack Iran via Turkey (and of course Turkey which have a common border with Iran is reluctant)

B)That Israel and Turkey have been probably heavily pressured by USA to not conlxude any sale on Derby to avoid to shift Greec-Turk balance

Since Turkey has weaken its military relation with Israel and no Derby sale seems to have occured

h*tp://www.setimes.com/cocoon/setimes/xhtml/en_GB/newsbriefs/setimes/newsbriefs/2009/04/28/nb-08

We can assume that Israel and Turkey did not obtained what they wanted each other and so Turkey is now trying to pressure Israel.

We notice on US policy that

h*tp://gbulten.ssm.gov.tr/arsiv/2005/03/07/03.htm

Washington rules out ?any regional political problems because of the proposed sale.? The Pentagon has said that the F-16 upgrade package will contribute to the foreign policy and national security objectives of the United States by improving the military capabilities of Turkey and further weapon system standardization and interoperability with U.S. forces.

It also said the sale will not adversely affect either the military balance in the region or U.S. efforts to encourage a negotiated settlement of the Cyprus question. The list of items in the Turkish F-16 upgrade package: n 180 AN?APG-68(V)9 radars

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french stratege 5/3/2009 9:07:00 AM

We can conclude that Turkish generals must be really disappointed that any means to alter Greec Turkish balance currently in favor of Greece, miserably failed including the Israeli way.They have absolutely no means to exerce military pressure on Cyprus problem in favor of Turks.
USA continue to garantee to Greece the more advanced weapons like AMRAAM-C then European like France double the stockpile.

France is not desesperate to sale Rafale.

Rafale program is not at jeopardy especially after the +20% annual increase in the French military procurement for the next five years.

Rafale program cost about 2 Billions ? (building, R&D, MCO) on 18 Billions ? available each year fror french military so 11% of french military procurement and it is said first priority after deterrent and nuclear subs to maintain.

However some sales would help.

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Geezer 5/4/2009 10:02:15 AM

Interesting points yet again.

Without being absolute about this, i speculate that Greece might be able to "veto" IRIS-T sells to Turkey, since its a participant in the program since its offspring. The IRIS-T has already many, and will have more in the future, orders so the european friends will not be that much dazzled by an export to Turkey of a couple of hundred pieces. Even so, i think the US will have no problem selling AIM-9X to the Turks.

I believe the Turco-Israeli relations are alive and kicking, they both need each other desperately, and the US is a "bestman" that applies huge pressure to both so that their "mariage" will keep going. The Turco-Israeli relations are extremely crucial to US middle east policy and they will not let a break easily.

About the Rafale, all i can say is that the French goverment applies pressure to ours for a Rafale purchase. I summoned the "despair" since they have not shown so much zeal for the FREMM (a large contract as well). In fact the Greek Navy planned for A/A frigates but now "miracusly" the need shifted to multi purpose frigates with strategic strike (scalp naval) capabilites. It seems that the Greeks probably tried to tackle French pressure for a Rafale purchase, through a FREMM purchase, sacrificing the initial HN plans.

HAF will soon have 90 Scalp-EG, which probably be increased with a further small purchase. Now the Greek FREMM configuration
link /> seems to give each FREMM 16 Scalp Navals. It is obvious that we are talking about a very descent stockpile of long strike missiles (154 in the worst case). This decent strategic capability will make the Turks think very well before doing anything stupid. This prospect might have played a role in selecting FREMM by the HN and not actually be a manouvre to avoid a Rafale purchase. I really cannot know that, just presenting some speculation.

Another fact is that the Greek goverment in early 2000s (PM Kosta Simitis) had almost agreed for a 60 EF2000 purchase. When new Greek administration got power in 2004, used the Olympic games cost as a pretext to frieze the purchase and postpone it, also altering the number to 40+20 rather than 60 units. Now, the Germans are really mad with our current goverment for this, Angela Merkel has turned down every greek demand for meetings between the two goverments in the highest level... The Type214 issues also played its part in this.

Now the purchase of a new fighter by the Greeks is imminent the next years (there is a serious operational gap with the retirement of A-7s and RF-4s) and according to our budget planning it will take place in two parts up to 2020. It will be either two european aircraft purchases or a european and a US (F-35) purchase. Greeks always have been following a half-european half-US aircraft purchase tactic in this sector, but this has severe cost implications which are well understood.
The fact is that the Greeks are concerned about the possible capabilities of the F-35. A purchase of EF2000 without AESA right now, that will prove ineficient to "see" the F-35 within a decent distance will mean either an engagement in some short of AESA pursue or an F-35 purchase.

They EF200 does not seem that it will acquire an AESA any time soon. Personaly i used to laugh at people when they said to me that an AESA is very close to Rafale but recently i changed my opinion... since it seems that Rafale in a few years will have one. But no one really knows the F-35's stealth capabilities, especially the downgraded export version that Turkey will get.
Generally it seems that the F-35 venture faces serious issues, after the Australians the Dutch now are really concerned with its cost (they asked the Dutch for 110 million for each of the initial test aircraft...), also they are concerned about the need to retire their F-16s so soon. There is plenty of reference in the press all over the world about that, you might have already read about it.

The good thing is that F-35 has many competitors so info about its capabilties will be available to HAF even if the Turks try not to use it in the Aegean theatre so as to hide them. The F-35 might prove a joke eventually i dont really know, i mean that its high (and ever increasing..) cost has to be coupled with advanced stealth, if not it will be a joke and a disaster for countries that spent bilions over billions to acquire it. I guess that we have to wait and see.

Concluding, the only certain thing (for any logical person of course) is that the US or the European power countries will NEVER allow either Greece or Turkey to gain a serious military advantage over the other. What turkey will do with its local industry does not really matter in this respect. Greece or Turkey are just middle-men in geopolitics and they will remain so "by any means necessary"... ;-)
Many "regional powers" tried to elevate to global power status, and we all know what happened to them at the end... ;-)

At the end of the day the Greek decision for EU integration (with the acompanying national compromises of course) seems a much safer road rather than the Turkish ambition for global power status (which is a bit funny prospect actually if you think well of it...).

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mehmet Turkey vs, Greece who is better? 5/11/2009 1:12:17 AM

On the average Turkey has more weaponry at the scale of 10 to 7....but Turkey's weaponry the majority of it is a little older!!! Its military is roughly 5 to 6 times more than Greece!!! After the Turkey's invasion and occupation of roughly 35 to 40% of Cyprus...the majority of the Greek islands have been thoroughly fortified to prevent another "Cyprus scenario"..happening in the Greek Aegean sea!!! The big Greek islands are full of military,,Apache helicopters, tanks,AA systems from the USA, France and Russia, including some Greek made!!! As a matter of fact the USA army is purchasing some advance Greek systems for their army as well! There has never been a war between Greece and Turkey!!! But the last century there have 2 wars between Greece and the Ottoman Empire, in 1912-1913 and in 1919-1922 In 1912 the Ottoman empire had 30 times more population than Greece!!! But at the naval battles in the Aegean sea, the Greek navy won both times and the Ottoman navy was "locked up in the Dardanelles, the entrance to Bosporous" As a result the Greek navy liberated all the Aegean sea islands and beat the Ottoman Turks in battles for the liberation of Macedonia and Thrace! As such, the Ottoman Turks not being able to resupply their forces all Balkans were liberated from the Ottoman colonials!!! The war following between Greece and Bulgaria...was for basically control of the provinces of Macedonia and Thrace and although the Bulgarians had support from their Russian cousins...they lost and Greek borders extended to the river Evros by 1913!

After that treaties were signed, the Turks helped by German guns, battleships and military officers re-organized and started again hostilities! The neo-Turks could not "digest" being kicked out of the balkans and as such started the "genoside of all Christians basically in minor asia, but with more emphasis on Armenians and Greeks!!! First the Russians tried to help the Armenian Christians, but their navy lost the navy battles against the Ottomans in the black sea and the Ottomans ended up bombarding ..Odessa and Sevasopol, and as such the Russians were defeated and humiliated!!! Then the British and the French and the Italians tried to force the Ottomans to stop butchering the Christians in minor asia bu the Ottoman Turks they woulf not listen!! So... the score was settled at...Kallipoli, close to the entrance of the Dardanelles!!! 260,000 British, and French army against Kemal and his 500,000 Ottoman Turkish troups!!! The Ottoman Turks won and ...Churchill lost his position as...British secretary of war, and British and Frence abandoned the minor asia Chistians and the genoside kept on going on! The cries of Greek and Armenian Christians being bouchered by the Ottoman Turks were heard all the way to the Greek islands and mainland!!! The Greek prime minister Eleftherios Venizelos, demanded in Paris at a meeting with the big three...USA, France and Britain, that Greece, could not wait any longer and was going to invade and stop the Christian genoside in minor asia! And the big powers said to Greece...you are on your own!!! Within a month.. kemal with his 1,000,000 army was waiting for the Greeks at kallipoli....but the Greek army(140,000.strong) devided in 2 fronts ...one landed at the port of Ismir and started moving north and the second group moved quickly from Evros river to within 30 kilometers outside of Istanbul and parked there waiting instructions from the ..polititians! The army that landed in Ismir was moving rapidly north to...encircle the Ottoman Turkish army of 1,000,000 headed by general Kemal who the year before beat the British and the French at kallipoli! Rather than face the Greek army, Kemal withdrew to Ankara, and the forces guarding the entrance to the dardanelles surrendered to the greek army and the Greek battleships headed by the battleship Averoff...moved to within 500 meters from the Sultans palace in Istambul while the greek army was 30 kilometers outside of the city!!! Then the ...British and French and the Italians...came to help with the negotiations!!! Sultan would sign but kemal would not sign!!! So the the Greeks started moving towards Ankara, the Italians landed in south-west and the French at the south East minor asia without a fight as Kemal was throwing everything he had against the Greeks! The Greeks ..."parked " outside of Ankara(about 35 kilometers) waiting for the negotiations that would never end!!! Change of leadership in Athens, the allies demanded that the Greeks withdraw from ankara, from Ismir and the battleship Averoff away from the Sultans palace, so he couls sleep at night in peace and so on!!! At the end... the genoside stopped, the Ottoman empire was finished.... the French, English and Russians devided among themselves the countries of the Ottoma empire as a reward for helping the Turks against the Greeks....who withdrew to the Evros river but kept all the Aegean islands!!! Under extreme pressure from the big powers in Paris...Greece gave the Ottoman Turks 2 small islands, so that Turkey could protect the entrance to the dardanelles and Istambul!!! While the Greek army, left unsupplied for too long, was withdrawing from Ankara... received constant attacks from the Ottoman Turks who claimed them..as battle wins, and even captured 2 Greek generals, while the Greek army had orders to withdraw!!! The Greek polititians for their handling of the affair... were sent at the 10 meters and executed!!!

Now could anyone tell me if the Turks have a chance against the Greeks(Spartans-Athenians-Macedonians-Aegean Islanders..etc.together..) In 1940 Fascist Italy declared war against Greece and lost !!! Italy had nearly 10 times more the armaments and the manpower of the Greeks!!! Within months Hitler decides to take on... Greece! At the Metaxas defence line, at the border of northern Greece, Greece was standing tall defending Macedonia against the German tanks, stukas and German military dedipline!!! Could the German military machine beat the Greek army??? (my father included) NO!!! After 2 weeks of fighting the Germans realized they could not break the Greek defences and decided to go through...south Yugoslavia (vardanska-FYROM now) and as such started moving towards Athens and the rest of Greece!!! The defensice line by the way against Vardanska(FYROM now) was defended by the ...British...who basically run away at the site of the German tanks!!!

If the Turks decide anything against the Greek islands...they may get a small one to ...boost their ego, but for a..short period of time!!! But you can be very certain that the Greek army would move very rapidly towards..Istambul!!! after all the Greek army knows very well the road to ...Konstantinoupolis(Istambul) The latest technology German tanks are close by...and the Russian made heavy armed military carriers, protected by Russian AA rocket lunchers, and Apache helicopters, can move through ....Evros river and sea within seconds across the border and straitght to Istambul!!! Lets hope this would not happen, as it would be the end of Turkey as we know today!!!

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Godofgamblers 5/11/2009 6:19:23 AM

When I read FREEDOM AND DEATH by Kazantzakis, I was impressed by how much he loved his country (and Crete especially). Greeks are very patriotic and this is a good thing, I'll have to read up though on some of what you write.... the Greeks defeated the Germans? Not so sure... anyway, thank you for taking the time to type out the above.

regards

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Geezer 5/12/2009 1:14:36 PM

Better stick to the present reality.. it makes more sense.

Some numbers about the Airforces of the two countries:

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HELLENIC AIR FORCE

88 F-16 C/D Block 52+   (The last 30 started being delivered)
40 F-16 C/D Block 50
32 F-16 C/D Block 30
25 Mirage 2000-5 mk2 (6 still under delivery)
20 Mirage 2000 EGM/BGM
35 F-4E AUP PI2000

20 RF-4E
86 A-7   (45 remain in full operation)

* A purchase of 30-40 aircraft will be anounced "soon" so that the A-7 can retire.
   A second (similar sized) purchase will follow (2015-2020).

TURKISH AIR FORCE

30 F-16 C/D Block50+ (Deliveries will start 2011-2012)
73 F-16 C/D Block 40
36 F-16 C/D Block 30
52 F-4E 2020 Terminator

91 F-4E (60 of them remain operational)
35 RF-4E
43 F-5 2000

* F-16 CCIP, Level 3 partner in F-35 ($195 million contribution) - plans for 100 aircraft.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

As it is obvious the situation has TUAF with a slight numerical advantage on old aircraft, and HAF with a slight technological advantage on newer aircraft.

TUAF also utilizes popeye missiles and Harpy UAVs, giving it significant first strike capabilities. HAF on the other hand utilises Exocet and Scalp-EG enchancing air/surface and long range stand-off strikes.

The BVR missile stock is in clear favor of the HAF (as already discussed a few msgs earlier), having larger and diversified stockpile.

In the future the ballance is not going to change dramatically. TUAF is going to retire older aircraft replacing them by F-35, while HAF will retire its won aging aircraft by EF2000 or Rafale, plus another order of one of the two or an order of F-35 (according to the evaluation of F-35 in action over the next years).

The recent apointment of Mr. Davotoglu (a neo-ottoman theoretic that among others claims that the aegean islands are just an extension of turkey...) as head of the turkish foreign ministry, coupled with ever escalating provocations on the Aegean (flights even above Greek soil), sound as sure trouble in the short/mid term future. I cannot but only speculate about its magnitude, it can range from a circus-show like the 1996 Imia crisis up to a conflict that will take place in both the Aegean and Thracian front.

From the higher echelons of the Greek MoD it is stated that no turkish action in the Aegean (or elsewhere) will remain unanswered, but it will face a similar or greater magnitude agressive "response".

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