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Subject:
US Strategic Moves Analysis - Not Media Paranoia
Galrahn
12/28/2006 11:07:48 PM
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I don't buy the whole 'Iranian Strike Theory' promoted in Naval buildup media reports like the one Herc is hyping, but I do think it is more than noteworthy to discuss the strategic moves the US is doing in the Middle East, at least in evaluation from a strategic perspective when there is a new strategy being discussed regarding the 2 ongoing wars in the region.
I like to look at things from a Naval perspective, but would be very grateful if someone familiar with US/UK/NATO troop rotations in Iraq and Afghanistan could add additional Army or Air Force analysis.
If we ignore the media paranoia regarding the typical CSG and ESG in the Persian Gulf, and remember the Stennis CSG and Bataan ESG have been preparing for several months to make their scheduled deployments in January 07, and look at what else is happening, there are some noteworthy events.
First, over the past few weeks 70 F-16s from the 122nd Fighter Wing and 1 twelve plane squadron of the 388th Fighter Wing have deployed to the Middle East. The 122nd is an Air National Guard unit, only sent for a few months to provide immediate air support based on requirements on the ground in Afghanistan and Iraq, presumably until Naval air power is able to be surged. No matter how you look at it though, the decision to deploy 80 F-16s, and more importantly their infrastructures, to Southeast Asia is a major move.
Second, the number of naval warships in the region has increased, not only by the US but by allies as well. The Boxer ESG and the Eisenhower CSG may get all the headlines, and the USS Ashland may grab a little attention by replacing the USS Saipan off the Horn of Africa, but what about the naval buildup? HMS Blyth and HMS Ramsay are now on station. USS Gladiator was loaded onto Condock 5 and shipped to the region, and another Condock ship has been chartered to move a yet unnamed Ingleside MCM to Bahrain. These 2 minesweepers are an upgrade over the two retiring coastal minesweepers the US has sold to Egypt.
A very interesting but barely reported item took place back in November when the USS Underwood (which is otherwise working up off the east coast with the Bataan ESG), crossed the pond to integrated itself with SNMG2. At that time, the USS Monterey, which had just been appointed flagship of SNMG2 in October, was replaced by the new flagship HS Bouboulina. The Monterey remains in SNMG2 though (for now). On the flip side, USS Boone is in Rota for repairs after losing all electrical power early in December, a Spanish Fleet tug had to tow it to port, meaning SNMG1 is down a US frigate at the same time the CENTCOM is calling for more forces.
There were two ships that did cross the Suez that should have raised eyebrows. USNS Shughart and USNS Soderman both crossed the Suez heading for the Gulf earlier this month.
More notes worthy of comment. The JMSDF DDG Makinami is the escort for Task Force 53, the US Navy logistics task force in the Middle East. There is a rumor Destroyer Squadron 50 will be activated and deployed from the East Coast in January. DESRON 50 would be a 5th Fleet surface action group formed on an 'as needed' basis. Additionally, the Navy has gone out of its way to publicize 5 SSNs in the Middle East region including USS Dallas, USS Newport News, USS Greenville, USS Providence, and USS Minneapolis St. Paul. Can someone, anyone explain the wisdom of announcing the presence of 5 SSNs in one fleet region?
There are 2 Canadian, 1 British, 1 German, 1 Pakistani, 4 French (including the Jeanne D' Arc), and 1 additional US warships (USS Taylor) in the southeast Asian region over the next few months.
Things to ponder. Unless the Stennis CSG cancels expected exercises with allies, which I doubt, it will not reach the Gulf until close to March, which is about the time the Eisenhower CSG is expected to come home. If there is an aircraft carrier surge, it will either be the Reagan in the Pacific or the Enterprise in the Atlantic. The Roosevelt is expected to go into DPIA after the Washington comes out., the Lincoln is in DPIA, the Nimitz could deploy, but is already expected to deploy in the spring of 07 as is the Truman, which is expected to have a RN escort. With the Vinson in refueling it only leaves the Kitty Hawk, which unlikely to leave Japan, and the JFK which retires next year.
The ESGs set for early 07 deployments are the Bataan ESG followed a few months later by the Kearsarge and Bohommee Richard ESGs.If there is a surge, look for one of the LHAs to be sent, although I wouldn't bet against the Wasp being sent with MV-22s in an attempt to get the MV-22s into action early in 07.
Like I said, while I don't buy the Iranian Strike Theory, I do buy the Navy on your front lawn theory, and expect it to be in motion in January with a March target timeframe. The 4 fleet minesweepers (2 RN and 2 USN) is a new look, and would normally be a sign of trouble with Iran, but I don?t buy it as offensive, but rather defensive. Look for many panic media reports of war looming, and plenty of typical Herc reactionary commentary early in the new year.
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