Whew!

Nice thread you guys put together here.

Sadly, IMV, GoG's scenario is realistic enough to deprive me of some sleep tonight.

If the Arabs were a homogenous block, which they aren't in spite
of  all the pan-Islamic and Umma/Khilafa babble we hear nowadays,
they would  make sure that the treasonable Gaullist Eurabia
fantasy quickly comes to fruition.

This would be their easiest shortcut towards nuclear capability, and would spare them a lot of cash and effort.

As to the possibility of seeing the French somehow react to Notre Dame
de Paris being turned into a mosque called al-Masjid al-Chirakyia or
something like that, I wouldn't count on it:  nobody there wants
to appear as Islamophobic, now do they?

In any case, they did not object too much to the svastika on the Arc de
Triomphe the last time they chose to yield to the enemies of the West,
so I suppose the Brits would indeed need to send their Navy into harm's
way in the Western Med instead of waiting for the French resistance to
do something.


Greetings from the doomed Metaghetto of Gush-Dan, Israel;


Shirrush.




 

Hey, Shirrush! Long time no read. Hope all is well with you. Although some seem to think that I came up with this scenario while puffing on my houka or something, it was French policy over 30 years to form a Middle Eastern power block, which explains their out of control arabic immigration policies. The choice of taking Malta as a stepping stone was my own invention as it seemed to lend itself to an interesting scenario and a showdown with the RN.

 

In any case, between you and me, I don't think the 'Gaullist Eurabia' will ever come into being simply because there is no one on the horizon who has the political will to make bold (crazy) moves such as the ones I have outlined in my scenario. The French are sticking to politics and not confrontation to build an empire through the EU, etc.

 

cheers

 

 

 

Sorry to be posting so late in the thread. However, I've only skimmed throught the previous posts and I apologise if i have missed something.

 

There are some details in the original posting that may need some ammendmant. First of all the French (if they had to for some inexplicable reason invade Malta) would not need to neutralise the bulldogs as they are unarmed. Malta also has no armour whatsoever and in the face of any opposition in strength would surrender. There is no purpose in any landing at Valletta as the island is small enough to be taken by one concentrated landing.

However, I fail to see how the French benefit by such an invasion. Anchorage in probably not needed and there is only one functioning airport, the international airport at Luqa. Which, if I understood the original post correctly, was neutralised.

The roads are also in terrible condition, I'll bet the Australians have in easier time on the outback!!

Then comes the question on who would come to our aid. Malta currently has a defence agreement with Italy. In fact much of the military equipment is Italian and the Italian helicopter stationed on the island is piloted by an Italian.

What we are dealing with then is a joint Anglo-Italian relief force with debatable help from Libya (due to economic ties). Using Italian bases on Sicily and Royal Navy vessels and firepower coupled with the expertise of the Royal Marines the French will be beaten on land and sea. Any retaking of Malta by force would inevitably result in urban warfare. Something at which the British excell.

Failing all this there is always the disruption of supply convoys to Malta. This was tried in the Second World War and came incredibly close to success. Malta has a population of circa 400,000. Deprivation of food supplies means that the French would capitulate within a month, although this method means undue suffering to the Maltese.

Oh, and remember that there is no love lost between the French and the Maltese. They invaded once before in 1798 and a Maltese uprising led to the entire garrison being besieged in Valletta.

This is fantastic! I didn't imagine that there were any Maltese posters.

Sorry for the factual errors in my scenario, MC, I didn't do my homework, I guess:)

 

I did see though that the French had taken Malta before, which is one reason why I chose it as France's stepping stone to Africa.

 

A few quick questions:

 

(1) What are Malta's ties to the Arab world like? Do Maltese tend to favor the Arabs or distance themselves from them in int'l politics?

 

(2) I believe that B company of the 1st regiment is in charge of protecting sensitive gov't installations. Are they then scattered all over Malta?

 

(3) What are the approxiate numbers of the Emergency Volunteer Force?

 

Thanks, MC.

I think this is getting derailed a bit.

 

there are a couple of critical issues to address before anyone can make a meaningful follow up contribution.

 

eg:

 

what are the immediate tactical objectives?

what is the strategic objective?

whats the desired political outcome for France?

is this scenario embargoed under some kind of make believe "logical bubble" where real world influences are excluded (eg the fact that a substantial cohort of arabic and northern states on the african continent are decidedly not pro french, and are likely to throw their hats into the ring behind anyone who disrupts french political incursion into the region - eg, "the enemy of my enemy is my friend" mentality.?

that taking Malta is a sideshow to what would follow - and the fact that taking Malta is not the end of a successful military engagement - but is actually the trigger to start a new and divergent military conflict.  Malta is a pandoras box in that sense.

that the UK doesn't have to engage France in a classical "fleet on fleet" contact to achieve dislocation of French military objectives

that the French are not in any position to mass naval forces just in the Med to lock out the Brits and to take Malta.  So, to draw up a penant list of french vessels doesn't even remotely translate to a real world "flag availability" list.

that the best thing for the Maltese is to drag the french into an urban warfare where they can dominate, drag down french forces and start to manage world opinion through the prism of a small state being bullied by a colonial power. the media war advantage lies with the maltese.  the dumbest of cadet journalists would be able to draw a parallel picture of France and Indo China. The other security council members incl the US, Chinese and Russians would be all over France for undertaking a neo-colonial or post imperium adventure. 

 

attacking malta is the dumbest thing that any large country could do - its political suicide of the highest order - and guaranteed to generate world wide opprobrium.

 

 

 

soleil9, I may have been overly optimistic in including Libya into the equation but Italy must honour its agreement. If the UK is to be involved in this conflict Italy then has the means and the motives to aid Malta. There is more chance of Italian involvement than there is of former French colonies returning willingly to their former masters.

 

 

"(1) What are Malta's ties to the Arab world like? Do Maltese tend to favor the Arabs or distance themselves from them in int'l politics?

 (2) I believe that B company of the 1st regiment is in charge of protecting sensitive gov't installations. Are they then scattered all over Malta?

 

Thank you for your comments, MC. Your participation is invaluable to this discussion.

As for my choice of landing points, it was nothing but blind luck, I assure you:)

 

As for the Italian question, I have to admit that this throws a new light on everything. How France would deal with not only the RN but also the Italian navy is a good question....

 

If Italy and the RN were to blockade Malta, you're quite right, the French would not hold on long. I envisaged the RN navy having to pass through the Straits of Gibraltar. If however the Italians were added to the equation, France would be faced with major difficulties and I would have to sheepishly admit that the French would probably never attempt the operation in the first place... Sicily is a stone's throw from Malta.

 

I have no doubt that the French could take Malta. I have no doubt that they could repulse UK efforts to retake it because of air superiority and the proximity of French bases. I have no doubt that France could cobble together an alliance of Arab states in its bid to take Africa.

 

However, if Italy were to be on Malta's side, I doubt if France could hold Malta and/or provision Malta in the face of an Italian/UK blockade.

 

Is is Check and Mate then?