I think this is getting derailed a bit.

 

there are a couple of critical issues to address before anyone can make a meaningful follow up contribution.

 

eg:

 

what are the immediate tactical objectives?

what is the strategic objective?

whats the desired political outcome for France?

is this scenario embargoed under some kind of make believe "logical bubble" where real world influences are excluded (eg the fact that a substantial cohort of arabic and northern states on the african continent are decidedly not pro french, and are likely to throw their hats into the ring behind anyone who disrupts french political incursion into the region - eg, "the enemy of my enemy is my friend" mentality.?

that taking Malta is a sideshow to what would follow - and the fact that taking Malta is not the end of a successful military engagement - but is actually the trigger to start a new and divergent military conflict.  Malta is a pandoras box in that sense.

that the UK doesn't have to engage France in a classical "fleet on fleet" contact to achieve dislocation of French military objectives

that the French are not in any position to mass naval forces just in the Med to lock out the Brits and to take Malta.  So, to draw up a penant list of french vessels doesn't even remotely translate to a real world "flag availability" list.

that the best thing for the Maltese is to drag the french into an urban warfare where they can dominate, drag down french forces and start to manage world opinion through the prism of a small state being bullied by a colonial power. the media war advantage lies with the maltese.  the dumbest of cadet journalists would be able to draw a parallel picture of France and Indo China. The other security council members incl the US, Chinese and Russians would be all over France for undertaking a neo-colonial or post imperium adventure. 

 

attacking malta is the dumbest thing that any large country could do - its political suicide of the highest order - and guaranteed to generate world wide opprobrium.

 

 

 

soleil9, I may have been overly optimistic in including Libya into the equation but Italy must honour its agreement. If the UK is to be involved in this conflict Italy then has the means and the motives to aid Malta. There is more chance of Italian involvement than there is of former French colonies returning willingly to their former masters.

 

 

"(1) What are Malta's ties to the Arab world like? Do Maltese tend to favor the Arabs or distance themselves from them in int'l politics?

 (2) I believe that B company of the 1st regiment is in charge of protecting sensitive gov't installations. Are they then scattered all over Malta?

 

Thank you for your comments, MC. Your participation is invaluable to this discussion.

As for my choice of landing points, it was nothing but blind luck, I assure you:)

 

As for the Italian question, I have to admit that this throws a new light on everything. How France would deal with not only the RN but also the Italian navy is a good question....

 

If Italy and the RN were to blockade Malta, you're quite right, the French would not hold on long. I envisaged the RN navy having to pass through the Straits of Gibraltar. If however the Italians were added to the equation, France would be faced with major difficulties and I would have to sheepishly admit that the French would probably never attempt the operation in the first place... Sicily is a stone's throw from Malta.

 

I have no doubt that the French could take Malta. I have no doubt that they could repulse UK efforts to retake it because of air superiority and the proximity of French bases. I have no doubt that France could cobble together an alliance of Arab states in its bid to take Africa.

 

However, if Italy were to be on Malta's side, I doubt if France could hold Malta and/or provision Malta in the face of an Italian/UK blockade.

 

Is is Check and Mate then?

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

, than Italia to go in war with us, at first shoot between FR and IT, it will be a big blood bath between Lyon and Milano.

but in fact Italian neutrality could be discuted with Italia, and maltese cross you underestimate link between France and North Africa, and Algeria for example have many more reasons and things to win supporting France

Let's assume for the sake of this thread that hostilities don't occur on the European mainland. The battle will be for Malta and will take place on Malta and the Med.

For instance, in the Falklands.conflict, the UK could have bombed Buenos Aires or blockaded.Argentina but decided not to escalate knowing they could win the islands. Let's assume that the major powers have decided to fight the battle on Malta, not by detonating EMP bombs over Paris or something!

 

 

My bet is that if Italy comes in then France goes home VERY quickly.

 

Sardinia & Sicily give Italy (& friends) enough bases to dominate the airspace over that part of the Med. Further, Britain could move forces into Italy through Germany, Austria & Slovenia in preparation for a move on Malta.

 

The Brits would be clever enough to defuse any Libya/Italy issues, and I'm sure that Tunisia & Algeria wouldn't object to the Italians using their bases.

 

I can back up Maltese Cross on the orientation of the Maltese to the North, rather than south. In Australia they are seen in a similar light to migrants from italy, Greece & Yugoslavia. If anything, they have assimilated even better than those groups (fewer delusions of grandeur).

 

If you think the French are in trouble when Italy joins in, just wait until thousands of young Maltese/Australians turn up angry & armed to the teeth.

 

Another 'strategic withdrawal' to Marseilles methinks.

I understand the cultural connection between France and North Africa but there is a similar connection between Malta and  Italy. In fact before the second world war Italian was the language of the upper class and the nobility. Consider also that an invasion of Malta undermines Italian security in the central Mediterranean and, other than the defence agreement, it is in the interest of Italy to deal with this threat. With the help of the Royal Navy they can do this.

 

An Anglo-Italian Alliance then means that France will have to do something VERY clever to stay in the game.

 

P.S. OMG Steve Irwin is dead

I quite agree, MC, that France can not fend off both the UK and Italy in the Med. You are quite right in bringing up the Malta/Italy relationship. However, I should point out that the question of this thread was "Can the UK stop France", not "Can the UK and Italy stop France".

For example, if we were discussing whether the UK could take the Falklands on its own before the actual conflict took place, it would have been unfair to assume that the UK would act in tandem with US forces in the region since, although it was a distinct possibility, US aid of the sort would immediately void the entire exercise. Meaning, that the outcome would not be in question.

 

For the same reason, I think we should assume that the UK does not have Italian aid. To justify this, many would have bet their bottom dollar that the US would have supported the UK militarily in the Falklands, but in fact that wasn't the case.

 

Perhaps Italy is afraid of angering France or Italy has been promised choice pieces of Africa that ITaly had historic 'rights' to such as Ethiopia in return for non-action...

 

MC and GOG you'are right , in fact the question is what will be the french determination; cause if the country is not ready to lose thousands peoples in agression war and at the end to be expelled of EU...

Perhaps the new French base in Cyprus is but the opening move in this scenario which is about to play out...?

France attacking Malta?

 

Why would one EU country attack another EU country?  It would never happen.  According to most pro-EU people, the EU is supposedly about promoting peace in Europe.

Also, France doesn't have a very good record in invading its European neighbours.  It's usually the invadEE, not the invadER.  It's probably the European country that's been successfully invaded more times than any other.  It's also probably the only one to be invaded twice by Italy.