Indonesia attacks Australia over West Papua

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bigfella RE:Indonesia attacks Australia over West Papua 6/3/2006 2:59:12 AM

Tilt, First things first. In 1999, while Australia did apply some diplomatic pressure for a vote in East Timor (which was a yes/no on autonomy - the overwhelming 'no' was taken as a vote for independence), it was only after Indonesia had relinquished sovereignty that we intervened against TNI-backed militias. It was never a direct Australia vs Indonesia fight and never would have been. Our committment to the rights of minorities in the region has always been bounded by certain realities - we aren't going to war with Indonesia for them. Having said that, lets imagine that some set of circumstances arises where we do find ourselves intervening in WP against Indonesia. Without wanting to load up my post with jargon & acronyms, my bet is that Australian forces would do the following: *cut off WP from Indonesia by sea & air. While the TNI units there may be able to feed themselves, bullets & bombs don't grow on trees. *deploy regular forces to secure key logistical facilities/points & a few strategic points, perhaps to help isolate the TNI. *Deploy SpecOps forces to disrupt TNI logistics & gather intel. *Help to set up an interim Papuan govt on WP territory We might also help to arm the remnant OPM guerillas, though I suspect anything like this would be something of a last ditch, as such forces tend to be 'loose cannons'. Perhaps more likely to attach them to ADF units as local liason. The big problem for us would be numbers. between TNI troops & pro-Indon militias we would be heavily outnumbered. They would have enough supplies to last a while. Our training & logistics would win out, but not before a lot of destruction & quite a few bodies (mostly pro-Indo militias & WP civilians killed by them). I'm sure other Aussies can do a better job, but this should do for a start.

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DropBear RE:Indonesia attacks Australia over West Papua 6/4/2006 8:00:25 AM

If so who would prevail? While Australia holds signicant quality and quantity advantage in air and naval forces what about a land conflict in WP? We don't plan to fight ops in isolation without the full spectrum of goodies combined within the entire ADF structure. Can't recall a time in history where we sent significant ground forces into a situation sans any type of back up. I'd suggest flying a few Pigs over the region or perhaps even downtown Jakarta and drop a few EMP bombs onto their C4ISR networks. Game set match Australia. (and the Pigs home in time for tea and scones).

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DropBear RE:Indonesia attacks Australia over West Papua 6/4/2006 8:01:36 AM

I should have said recent history wrt only using ground forces and I mean larger battalion style units not SASR ops.

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SteelGear RE:Indonesia attacks Australia over West Papua 6/4/2006 9:38:00 PM

Hey Dropbear........assuming our guys have finished up in Iraq by the time this hypothetical war starts which Army units would slate for this?

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Godofgamblers sea blokade/KOPASSUS 6/4/2006 10:04:08 PM

this combat would probably be settled by the politicians and not the soldiers. realistically, indo forces probably couldn't hold out long and would be cut off by an aus sea blokade. the deciding factor though would be the local population. it is certain that many/most would side with aus in return for independence. thus any indo actions would have to account for a hostile populace. this would complicate any indo ops and even victory in such circumstances would lead to defeat... or a pyrrhic victory... (i.e. slaughter of the local population, alienation of the locals because of atrocities, etc). as for ground forces, the only force equal in training and tactics to the aussies would be KOPASSUS (Komando Pasukan Khusus) and they don't number enough to turn the tide of a battle (they have 6 or 7 batallions). they are specially trained to live off the land and conduct long range jungle ops but they simply don't have the numbers to win a war. as for bombing jakarta, escalating the conflict up that level would not be in anyone's interests. destroying indonesia would lead to a massive human cost to indo and a massive refugee problem which could potentially swamp australia. australia's best hope would be to contain the conflict in papua. malaysia recently parked its forces on one of our islands and we found that we didn't have the sea power to do anything about it whatsoever. if aus were to move in force into papua, despite the outrage in jakarta, i doubt if much could be done about it. it would be a fait accompli. let's hope it doesn't come to that though, my aussie mates:)

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DropBear RE:Indonesia attacks Australia over West Papua 6/5/2006 1:25:28 AM

Hey Dropbear........assuming our guys have finished up in Iraq by the time this hypothetical war starts which Army units would slate for this? Well, I'm up for some good honest QMI and 2/14th Light Horse canned whoop arse. I think there are some sad sorry arsed reservists at Nogsy that could do with a good firefight now or then. Seriously, not sure where all our folks are atm without looking at the Army website. I think some elements of 3RAR Paras are still at Holsworthy and the Commandos are still in Oz me thinks. Bugger it! They don't call me DropBear LeMay for nothing. Send in the RAAF and pummel the Indo misfits once and for all! ;)

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bigfella RE:sea blokade/KOPASSUS - GoG 6/5/2006 1:33:19 AM

"let's hope it doesn't come to that though, my aussie mates:)" I don't think you have much to worry about GoG, though if you continue to disparage our fine Australian beers (don't think I missed that one on the Earthquake thread) some of our SP boys might kick things off themselves ;-)

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Godofgamblers RE:sea blokade/KOPASSUS - BF 6/5/2006 4:17:48 AM

he he i was just yanking your chain, mate. fosters is quite good, though our Bir Bintang has formaldihyde in it... guaranteed to preserve you into the golden years he he

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DropBear RE:sea blokade/KOPASSUS - BF 6/5/2006 4:29:10 AM

fosters is quite good,... We wouldn't know. Aussies don't drink that crap. We export it to third world nations/places like USA/UK/Europe/Asia etc. ;)

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Godofgamblers RE:sea blokade/KOPASSUS - DB 6/5/2006 4:54:10 AM

really! what do you drink then? i've never been to aus.

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