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Subject: What If: Rommel was the commander in Stalingrad and Von Paulus the commander in El-Alamein
InterArmaEnimSilent    1/13/2006 5:19:21 PM
What would have happened if Rommel got re-assigned to replace Von Paulus after his failure to fully capture the city of Stalingrad in September 1942 and Von Paulus got send down to North Africa to deal with the British. And when the Soviets en-circle the city, Rommel breaks out of the city to avoid total destruction where as Von Paulus choses to stay and fight to the last man in El-Alamein and in the process leads to the complete destruction of the Axis armies in North Africa but the German 6th Army survives destruction. How would the survival of the German 6th Army and the destruction of the Axis Army in North Africa effected how the remainder of World War II ?
 
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heraldabc       1/8/2012 6:33:39 PM
Your numbers are wrong.
 
Rommel averaged about 2000-3000 trucks in his transportation park.
 
The British supplied him with about a third to half of his trucks.
 
H.

 


Now assuming that only 60,000 are to be supplied at 75% of the daily rate you still come to an average usage of ~1,238 tons per day.  Already Tobruk's capacity for supply is exceeded...this is going to be a very big problem.


 


Assuming the 3 Ton Opel "Blitz" is the supply vehicle of choice just from Tobruk you are looking at 550 truck loads of supplies delivered...(assuming 75% capacity per truck).


 


Assuming 80% availability of trucks you are looking at 688 Opel Blitzes....


 


It's ~450 kilometres to Al Alamein, from Tobruk...assuming 50 Km/hour advance, and a 6 hour delay or turn-around you are looking at 24 hours per round trip...assuming usage of 16 hours per day you are using about 1,032 3 Ton trucks moving forward from Tobruk, alone.  And Tobruk is NOT the start point for the drive, merely a forward outpost...

 

Bottom-line: take Malta, don't take Malta...Rommel, no Rommel...the DAK isn't advancing onto Alexandria!

 
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JFKY    My numbers aren't wrong   1/8/2012 6:41:45 PM

I just didn't realize the size of the truck park....but you still have to run trucks from Benghazi to Tobruk...

The numbers are from the US Army's staff planning guide...

 
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heraldabc       1/8/2012 7:09:26 PM
And if your baseline is wrong, its still wrong, isn't it?
 
H.

The numbers are from the US Army's staff planning guide...


 
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JFKY    OK what numbers are wrong   1/8/2012 7:59:43 PM
and what are the right numbers?
 
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JFKY    OK, again...   1/9/2012 9:29:37 AM
Tobruk forward to Al Alamein... ~450 Km.  Moving 1,238 tons, for 41.25 pounds/man/day for 60,000 Troops...will require that the DAK/Italian forces stockpile for several days, as the 41 pound figure is not the AVERAGE DAILY USAGE allowed...for heavy combat it will be higher, so to support any sustained operations is going to require a halt and build -up...this requires 1,800 3 T truck loads per day...assuming NO LOSSES WHATSOEVER TO ENEMY ACTION OR WEAR.
 
Benghazi has a port capacity of 2,000 tons per day, reduced to 750 tons by British action....the movement from Benghazi to Tobruk is ~400 Km.  This will take about 990 trucks...again assuming no losses.
 
Bottom-line: Benghazi and Tobruk, in German hands provides the port capacity to support operations forward to Al Alamein.  But the trucking requirements are ~2,700 Bedford/Opel 3T trucks...making the assumption Rommel doesn't deploy his full forces forward, that they use only 75% of the average allowance for usage, that the trucks can run for 16 hours a day, 50KPH and are 80% available, but assumes NO 100% losses.
 
IF Rommel's truck park was 2,000 trucks, he can't support operations to Al Alamein.  IF the park is 3,000 trucks he can...but it strips the North African front of most motor transport to the rear of Benghazi...
 
"It is a D@mned... close run thing" for him to beat 8th Army....add in several million mines and little room to maneuver it becomes a daunting task, even IF Malta is taken and supplies are flowing unimpeded into the two forward ports.
 
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heraldabc       1/9/2012 9:35:16 AM
Part of those supplies we discuss were Mercedes 5 tonne trucks with trailers. That would be the difference. I think about 300 will do. That or maybe another four complete WRC 300 series trains and 300 kilometers of RR. 
 
Miniscule by Russian front standards but absolutely vital for a march on Alexandria.
 
H.

 

IF Rommel's truck park was 2,000 trucks, he can't support operations to Al Alamein.  IF the park is 3,000 trucks he can...but it strips the North African front of most motor transport to the rear of Benghazi...

 

"It is a D@mned...... close run thing" for him to beat 8th Army....add in several million mines and little room to maneuver it becomes a daunting task, even IF Malta is taken and supplies are flowing unimpeded into the two forward ports.

 
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JFKY    Response   1/9/2012 10:53:27 AM
Only made about 7,000 of 4.5 T vehicles. So now many are going to be available. Even assuming 100% Mercedes/trailer Combo with quadruple the 3T truck capacity you're looking at ~700-1,000 Mercedes....As they weren't the bulk of the truck fleet, I'd bet, you are STILL looking at a very large truck logistic operation. I don't Rail is the answer, it takes too long to set up...for the long-run yes, or from, possibly Tripoli to Benghazi, mayhap, but not much further forward...
 
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heraldabc    Additional too, not in lieu of.    1/9/2012 11:06:28 AM
300 KM of track is not that tough to lay. Links in the gaps within the existing Libyan RR which are SHORT..
 
H.
Only made about 7,000 of 4.5 T vehicles. So now many are going to be available. Even assuming 100% Mercedes/trailer Combo with quadruple the 3T truck capacity you're looking at ~700-1,000 Mercedes....As they weren't the bulk of the truck fleet, I'd bet, you are STILL looking at a very large truck logistic operation. I don't Rail is the answer, it takes too long to set up...for the long-run yes, or from, possibly Tripoli to Benghazi, mayhap, but not much further forward...

 
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JFKY    It took the Germans   1/9/2012 11:30:43 AM
quite some time to lay the tracks after crossing the Soviet border, it took months for the Allies to re-build the French rail roads... Rail is great for supporting a pre-existing line of communications, but fairly impractical for the situation Rommel faced in Summer 1942...
 
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JFKY    The Italian Railroad   1/9/2012 12:33:41 PM
ran from Tripoli to Benghazi.  For it to be of any value in Al Alamein it'd would have to be extended another 400-plus kilometres.  And that's not REBUILD, but build, create the road bed, lay the rails, establish the water facilities, I don't think that's a possibility in the Summer of 1942.
 
So you STILL have to truck the supplies from Benghazi forward, requiring some several thousand trucks.  It doesn't mean it's IMPOSSIBLE, just that it was a close thing...and throw in mines and the Quatara Depression and it looks fairly grim for the German-Italian Forces.
 
The British had a rail system running from Alexandria TO Al Alamein, IIRC...giving them a major advantage.  I believe the rail line ran to Mersa Matruth, or thereabouts.  So British supply became EASIER as German supply became harder, at least if or until the Germans ruptured the Al Alamein Front, and then both sides are back to relying upon trucks.
 
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