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Subject: USA/UK vs Iran
ted    10/19/2005 2:47:33 PM
What is the likelihood of a confrontation between the two sides over Iran's nuclear program? Are the US and UK able to deal with Iraq as well as invading Iran? If yes, how would this war play out? Also, would there be as much objection to this war (internationally and publicly in the US and UK) as there was to the Iraq one?
 
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Yimmy    RE:USA/UK vs Iran   10/19/2005 2:59:08 PM
I think this mostly depends on the real capabilities of the Iranian armed forces. On paper they look rather impressive, producing their own tanks and aircraft, with S-300, F14's, Mig25's etc, and their conscripts are certainly nutters for a part, clearing Iraqi mine fields by stampedes and the like.... ...of course paper + history doesn't equal real world capabilities.
 
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DarthAmerica    RE:USA/UK vs Iran - ted   10/19/2005 3:10:43 PM
>>>What is the likelihood of a confrontation between the two sides over Iran's nuclear program? Are the US and UK able to deal with Iraq as well as invading Iran? If yes, how would this war play out? Also, would there be as much objection to this war (internationally and publicly in the US and UK) as there was to the Iraq one?<<< ---Its increasingly likely but not inevitable IMO yet. The US/UK could very quickly solve the issue with military means. Probably within 2 to 6 weeks for the complete destruction of the Iranian military with minimal allied casualties. There would be considerable international objections from Russia and China as well as others. Including internal opposition. Irans Military is antiquated by comparison and their ability to sustain their war machine, maintaing the integrity of their C4I and access to ISR is extremely limited. Irans best hope is through diplomacy and alliances/partnerships. Its all down hill after the first shot is fired in anger and they know that.
 
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psyclops    RE:USA/UK vs Iran - ted   10/19/2005 3:23:28 PM
I think any war with Iran would end up ugly. Like Darth said, the conventional Iranian military would quickly be mopped up, but there are at least as many fanatics in Iran as in Iraq who would be happy to strap themselves to something explosive in order to take out a US/UK soldier or two. And I think there'd be diplomatic protests from more than just Russia and China; a lot of the world already has strong misgivings about US abilities to unilaterally topple governments, and would be unlikely to appreciate another demonstration. Especially in the Middle East. Even if they don't care much for the ayatollahs, they won't like the energy prices spiking on more instability there and the possible spread to neighboring countries. As for whether the US and UK could take on Iran while in Iraq, some of the posters here who are more closely connected with the military than I am could probably answer better, but I would guess we'd be strained awfully hard. People are already worried, so if we sent a few more divisions into Iran, I think it would be enough to disrupt our economy signficantly, let alone the quality of life for military families. I've heard some talking heads suggest that one reason Iran is flexing its muscles so much right now is because they know the US and UK are unlikely to immediately respond. You know the type-- the wannabe schoolyard bully pushing people around while the regular enforcer has his arm in a sling.
 
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DarthAmerica    RE:USA/UK vs Iran - ted   10/19/2005 3:31:27 PM
>>>I think any war with Iran would end up ugly. Like Darth said, the conventional Iranian military would quickly be mopped up, but there are at least as many fanatics in Iran as in Iraq who would be happy to strap themselves to something explosive in order to take out a US/UK soldier or two. And I think there'd be diplomatic protests from more than just Russia and China; a lot of the world already has strong misgivings about US abilities to unilaterally topple governments, and would be unlikely to appreciate another demonstration. Especially in the Middle East. Even if they don't care much for the ayatollahs, they won't like the energy prices spiking on more instability there and the possible spread to neighboring countries. As for whether the US and UK could take on Iran while in Iraq, some of the posters here who are more closely connected with the military than I am could probably answer better, but I would guess we'd be strained awfully hard. People are already worried, so if we sent a few more divisions into Iran, I think it would be enough to disrupt our economy signficantly, let alone the quality of life for military families. I've heard some talking heads suggest that one reason Iran is flexing its muscles so much right now is because they know the US and UK are unlikely to immediately respond. You know the type-- the wannabe schoolyard bully pushing people around while the regular enforcer has his arm in a sling.<<< ---There would obviously be an insurgency if we had to actually occupy Iran following the conventional triumph. But then that assumes the need to occupy even exist which I think it doesnt. We can secure and hold areas of interest in Iran such as nuclear sites, key ports, airports and terrain and leave the Iranians largely to themselves. This would require a much smaller force than a full occupation and relieves the US of the burden of nation building. Iraq and Afghanistan are excellent bases from which to conduct follow on operations in Iran if they are necessary.
 
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psyclops    RE:USA/UK vs Iran - DA   10/19/2005 3:48:27 PM
Couldn't we have done that with Iraq?
 
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MyJohnHancock    RE:USA/UK vs Iran - ted   10/19/2005 3:51:50 PM
"There would obviously be an insurgency if we had to actually occupy Iran following the conventional triumph. But then that assumes the need to occupy even exist which I think it doesnt. We can secure and hold areas of interest in Iran such as nuclear sites, key ports, airports and terrain and leave the Iranians largely to themselves. This would require a much smaller force than a full occupation and relieves the US of the burden of nation building. Iraq and Afghanistan are excellent bases from which to conduct follow on operations in Iran if they are necessary." That's not Politically Correct. We shoulda just gone into Iraq and taken care of the problems and left them in the rubble to busy to annoy us, but this is Post-PC. Unfortunately this means that we aren't going to do this the easy way, which means a lengthy insurgency, lots of pissed off allies, and hippies dancing through the streets listening to Sheehan make stupid claims... All the while the MSM will be gleefully burning Bush in effigy, while silently thanking him for making such great news. Lord knows what they would do without the suffering of other people to feed off of.
 
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DarthAmerica    RE:USA/UK vs Iran - DA   10/19/2005 3:52:33 PM
Sure, but then where would we stage for future WOT operations, how could we secure so much oil and how would we demonstrate to the ROTW our power to influence nations like Libya and Syria into compliance?
 
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MyJohnHancock    RE:USA/UK vs Iran - DA   10/19/2005 5:07:11 PM
I'm not saying we shouldn't do it. I'm just saying we will probably go with the full on G.W. Bush Democracy in the Middle East plan. Which means occupation till we can hand the problem off on the duly elected Regime we install.
 
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Ehran    RE:USA/UK vs Iran - DA   10/20/2005 11:51:07 AM
john the us has its hands pretty full right now sitting on 20% of the population of a country a third the size of iran. the number of warm bodies it would take to sit on iran in the same manner just isn't available to the army and marines. darth's notion of just occupying the parts of iran of "interest" seems to have one fairly hefty flaw in that you need to supply the guys in the interior parts of the country. by air or road convoy either way is going to be rather expensive if they are there for any length of time.
 
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The Lizard King    Its the Aftermath...   10/20/2005 12:45:24 PM
The War is the easy part. What happens next is when things get complex...
 
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