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Subject: Germany - US - UK in 1901
ProDemocracy    6/28/2005 4:11:45 PM
Picture it - 1901: If Germany (the world's strongest Army), the UK (world's strongest navy) and the US (much military potential and strong economic power) had combined - not to attack the rest of the world - but formed an alliance similar to NATO, the G7 or the EU (but less economic and more political) is there any combination of powers which could have resisted it? WWI could have been prevented, Austria, Italy, France, Russia and Turkey would still have thrived assuming the alliance was for peaceful purposes. In other words, during any crisis or situation, the US, UK and Germany would have consulted and come up with a united front...the UK using her influence over Italy, France and Japan, Germany using her influence over Austria and Turkey, and UK and US using influence with Russia to work out any issues that would arise...
I believe this would have propelled the world forward economically, prevented WWI and the Russian Revolution. The only flaw in my theory (and potentially a big one) is the minorities in Austria and Turkey yearning for their independence...your thoughts?
 
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JIMF    RE:Germany - US - UK in 1901   6/28/2005 5:40:58 PM
Teddy Roosevelt might have liked the idea, but I don't think he could have dragged the rest of the U.S. with him. Both Teddy and the Kaiser were very taken with the book "The Influence of Sea Power on History" by Mahan. On the other hand I don't think Britain or Germany took the U.S. very seriously despite our economic prowess.
 
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fall out    RE:Germany - US - UK in 1901   6/28/2005 10:26:42 PM
that's because of the US' isolationist stance, why take someone serious if they aren't going to get involved...
 
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ProDemocracy    RE:Germany - US - UK in 1901   6/28/2005 10:27:22 PM
I agree that Teddy would never have sold this idea to the American people - but if he were, a major if :) - and this was only hypathetical but I did read somewhere that when Britain concluded a military alliance with japan in 1902, she would have rather aligned herself with the US...and Germany strained every nerve to keep America out of WWI just 15 years later - until Russia collapsed and victory in the west seemed more or less imminent, then they resumed unrestricted sub warfare --- also, I was under the impression that the US win in the spanish-american war of 1898 made most major powers take a good look at the US as a rising power...too bad the Kaiser took that book too seriously - naval competition was one of the major obstacles to Britain and Germany coming to terms in an alliance or loose agreement in the late 1890's...and then Britain was pushed toward France...
 
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dummnutzer    RE:Germany - US - UK in 1901   6/29/2005 10:33:46 AM
Q:"On the other hand I don't think Britain or Germany took the U.S. very seriously despite our economic prowess." Bismarck said in the 19th century (quoting from memory): The fate of the next century will be decided by the fact that the American continent speaks English.
 
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ProDemocracy    RE:Germany - US - UK in 1901 - dummnutzer   6/29/2005 10:40:19 AM
wow - so are you a Bismarck fan? He is my second favorite historical figure (Churchill is the first)...amazing man and master diplomat.
 
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JIMF    RE:Germany - US - UK in 1901 - dummnutzer-ProD-Fallout   6/29/2005 3:17:42 PM
"There is nothing to be learned from armed mobs" Moltke on the American Civil War. I don't think the U.S. victory over a fourth rate power such as Spain did much to alter the German/European view of American military power. The U.S. navy was expanding, but the Army was extremely small numbering I think only 125,000 at the start of World War One, and that after a buildup. Reserves, National Guard were fairly minimal, and our army had to get its artillery from the French. Bismark was a brilliant man, but I don't think his observation about the American continent was representative of general European thought. If Germany strained every nerve to keep us out of the war they wouldn't have tried to ally with Mexico (Zimmerman Telegram) or engage in unrestricted submarine warfare. The latter is particularly despicable, except of course when the U.S. declared unrestricted submarine warfare against Japan, then it became morally ambiguous if not downright virtuous, but that's another story. The Germans actually thought that they would finish the war in 1918 with the troops released from the collapse of the Eastern Front. They were surprised that the U.S. could field and deploy a sizable army so quickly. As the Reichstag report on the causes of Germany's defeat pointed out they were also surprised at the quality of the American troops. In the wake of the Boer War Britain ended its "splendid isolation" and entered into the aforementioned treaty with Japan. This served Japan's purpose in keeping Russia's ally France out of the Russo-Japanese War. In the Dogger Bank incident the Russian Baltic Fleet, on their way to being annihilated by Admiral Togo at Tsu Shima, opened fire on British fishing trawlers, thinking they were Japanese Torpedo Boats. The British Navy almost saved the Russians a pointless trip, but diplomacy prevailed. The U.S. started seeing Japan as a serious potential enemy after they defeated Russia. The U.S. also earned Japanese enmity when Roosevelt negotiated the Treaty of Portsmouth and the Japanese did not get all that they wanted. I think the U.S. influenced Britain to abandon the Treaty in the early 1920s.
 
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ProDemocracy    RE:Germany - US - UK in 1901 - dummnutzer-ProD-Fallout   6/29/2005 3:31:41 PM
All excellent points but if Europeans held that view of America, why did Germany try to keep America out UNTIL our supplies to the Allies just becamse too much and they thought they could win in the west anyway? Also, why did Japan and Russia ask for American diplomatic help in ending their war in 1904? I agree that America was not viewed as she is today, but I think that no worldly stateman thought that a European country could win a war against the US. I don't know about the US influencing Britain's decision to let her treaty with Japan lapse...we were isolationist and since the war was over, really so was Britain - they didn't want any entanglements they did not have to have. Just like the US after WWI, Britain had a traditional of withdrawing after major wars (napoleon, etc).
 
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JIMF    RE:Germany - US - UK in 1901 - dummnutzer-ProD-Fallout   6/29/2005 3:45:02 PM
America more than any significant European country could be viewed as a disinterested objective party. Russia wanted to end the war because of the 1905 Revolution, Japan was going broke, had achieved their objectives, and Russian land forces as indicated by the Battle of Mukden were growing stronger. Teddy R. who did see a greater role on the World Stage for the U.S. was happy to play host and win the Nobel Peace Prize. Although the U.S. and Japan had settled some disputes over immigration, and signed the Root Takahira Agreement 1907 there was strong underlying tension in the relationship. U.S. naval planners would much rather plan for a war against Japan rather than against Japan with a potential British Ally, and I believe this view was effectively conveyed to the British.
 
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JIMF    RE:Germany - US - UK in 1901-ProD   6/29/2005 3:49:33 PM
Thanks for a very interesting thread
 
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ProDemocracy    RE:Germany - US - UK in 1901-ProD   6/29/2005 4:09:33 PM
Thanks for your insights - that makes complete sense. Do you have any reccommended reading on the subject of American-British-Japanese naval competition between the wars? Or just US international involvement between the wars in general (however limited)? Thanks.
 
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JIMF    RE:Germany - US - UK in 1901-ProD   6/29/2005 4:13:02 PM
I'm at work now, but I'll check my home library and get back to you. One good book about the War with Japan is titled "Eagle Against The Sun" I forget the author's name, but it was a good analytical take on the conflict. As I recall he did some background on the period leading up to war.
 
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