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Subject: How rank France in world power?
french stratege    4/23/2005 9:33:41 PM
o be a world power means to master a number of power tools and capacities: Economic power: France have fourth largest economy in world, even UK GNP seems on a par.But in fact France has a slightly bigger GDP in Puchasing Power Parity, a stronguer industry as its share in GNP is bigger, and especially in military usable industry (automotive, steel, microelectronic ...). Its trade balnce is positive unless US and UK.We benefit of Euro in sense that in a crisis, Euro would not go down like pound.Our financial market is less sensitive to crisis than UK. Then our saving, gold and currencies reserves are higher. France has 43 companies in the WORLD FORTUNE 500 ranking, one more than Germany and much more than UK or Italy.For example UK industry is stronguer than France in prescription drug but you can not use that for war. War potential: US: 100; Japan: 55, Germany ,40, France 25, UK 20. Diplomatic influence: should I said that French diplomatic network is world class and second to US only (with better skills).That our foreign aid is higher than UK or US in GNP %? That we have VETO right in UNO? That our cultural influence is world second after US? Thank to our industry we can substitute to US or Russia to deliver to a friend the whole set of weapons INDEPENDANTLY (from airfighters to subs via tank or C4ISR) and can shift power balance in any area.WE ARE THE SECOND WESTERN INDEPENDANT SUPPLIER AFTER US FOR CAPACITIES. We are the only Euro nation to have the full INDEPENDANT world reco network which is second to USA. RECO satellites, Telecom satellites (bandwith second to US), ELINT satellites, DSP satellites (in 2008), METEO satellites, spy ships, 30 ELINT ground station in word with 2 dedicated to spy US satelites, SPACE SURVEILLANCE RADAR. An unkown assets is that we are the only nation with US which can produce any currencies in world (to make false money in perfect imitation - we are the best in Europe for money technology) Sensitivity to energy imports: Our oil company is fourth in world and we have ROBUST assets in non middle east areas like Gabon, Angola etc...We produce our oil industry heavy equipment and our industry is world second of US in this field. Our nuclear energy production is world second in world and give us independance on electricity.Our influence in Africa secure minerals imports. Sensitivity to embargo: France has world class semiconductors facilities and hold the more advanced Europe wafer fab (joint venture between Motorola, SGS Thomson and Philips). Our auto maker build 7,5 million car /year, we have Airbus main designed office in France and so on...Our industry is pretty well balanced and produce almost everything at world class. Then we are the only Euro nation with a launch pad and Euro leader in Space.So we do not depend on US or other nation. We produce the second set of weapons after US and we do not depend of any supplier. Military technology: we are mastering everything form nukes to C4ISR with a technological level recognised by US as world second (while UK is close after).Of course neither Japan, Germany or China enjoy such an advantage. Nukes: our nuclear force are world THIRD and we produce precise counterforce weapons INDEPENDANTLY.Good second strike ability.400 warheads vs 200 for UK.(and we have stored weapons we can reactivate).3 SSBN can strike anywhere in the world. Military skills: our war academy is renown with US and UK.Israelis send some generals to perfectionate. Should I remember that Saudia Arabia asked French to crush rebellion in Mecka and not to US or UK?Saudis special forces and military stalled two weeks before asking France help.We did it in two days with 70 commandos leading Saudi commando (and using combat nerve gaz killing 2000 rebels). Mitary capacities. Second world force projection from 2007 to 2012 as a single Cdg with 3E2C and 40 Rafales, protected by 19 frigates with top ASW, 6 SSN and 3 Horizon with ASTER 30 outperform anything UK have: Indeed UK has 2 ACTIVE small carriers (with limited self protection and 60 harriers), they will not have any BVR fighters with FA2 retirement, and not antiship capacity since Harrier GR7/9 have NO RADAR!! UK air force has an handfull of non operational EF supported by 63 old Tornado ADV.No medium range airdefense for their troops. They have more SSN (soon reduced to 8 only) and military transport but we rely on civilian military prepared transports from french companies and our overseas bases to accumulate locally . ONLY US, UK, Russia and Japan has a sub force strong enough to put in danger our fleet. In fact we can crush any OPFOR airforce of 100 SU27/Mig29 (plus old MIGS or SU) without AWAC, ONLY relying on Cdg (even I agree a second would be better and needed). Most of nation do not have ENOUGH YAKHONT equivalent missiles to crush our naval force until our second carrier is operational. UK is unable to do that and in 2010 only 4 T45 will have entered service
 
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gixxxerking    french stratege   4/27/2005 2:39:25 PM
From Some Liberal Reporter CNN Washington Bureau Monday, April 27, 2009 Posted: 5:56 PM EDT (2156 GMT) Thousands of Muslims take to the streets of Paris today in protest over past European but specifically French Colonialism in the Middle East and North Africa. So far the demonstrations have been peaceful in Europe but in parts of the Middle East some deaths and looting has been reported. Increased military activity and redeployment of forces in Saudi Arabia and Egypt have been discribed by their respective defense ministers as precautionary and oriented toward restoring order.
 
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jhaley    RE:Worcester   4/27/2005 2:49:59 PM
The EU reminds me of the South during the US civil war. Each state and governor acting independent in a loose confederation with a weak central government. See also: ancient Greece, Italy after Rome, Scotland etc..
 
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french stratege    Egypt first draft   4/27/2005 3:25:37 PM
Egypt: France will prebuild in Chad and Djibouti.3 months at least without engaging forces using negociation to win time before ultimatum.Our VETO right prevent UNO to cripple our effort.Sudanese or eythrean gov will be neutralized by combining threatand bribes. Two solutions for CdG task force: red sea or mediterranean. The goal is to eliminate the 4E2C, then gain airsuperiority. E2C locations as they are likely dispersed, will be find using Helios satelites, elint aircraft, ESSAIM elint satellites, orchidées and RPV dedicated to that task.And deep action commando. A first raid using Apache antirunway cruise missiles, Scalp cruise will try to destroy in the first strike as much E2C and F16.The one or two E2C in flight should be located real time by elint sat and plane.Then using making preflight trajectory by mission preparation tools to hide maximum using relief and under help of Carbone offensive jammer, wings of Rafales will try to shoot down E2C in flight then M2000D dispersed assets (F16 and E2).Rafale Spectra and low RCS, offensive jammer and terrain masking will help a lot to appraoch to 120 miles of E2C unoticed.Then speed and engagment of the F16 protective wing will be the key to victory.Rafale + link 16 will act as a awac to get awareness of situation before our awac then are close to coordinate aerial battle. The key is aerial battle. Once Egypt has losses their E2C I don't see them able to win any aerial battle. They have no means to attack French awac/E2F in a similar way (lack of means and technology). Then air superiority is won the 555 M1 + 1300 M60 of egypt will be crused as possible using orchideees, cluster bombs and PGM. Once air superiority is established and most of F16 threat dissapears, reactivated squadron reserve of F1CT and Jaguar will bring their 200 CAS aircraft potential along the 320 M2000and Rafale and 120Superetendard/F1CR/F1CT 4 digitized Leclerc armored heavy brigades, 2 mechanized heavy brigade will be: either landed on south of Egypt in red sea (north of erithrea), 4 to 6 fast mobile motorized light armored units (using AM10RC) and helo division coming from either Chad or Djibouti via soudan.LPH used as Helos relay in red sea along Erythrean coast. Total attack will involve 500 Leclerc and updated AMX30B2 and 300 AMX10RC, 660 auf1/Caesar/MRLS, 3000 IFV most wheeled , 550 helos (240 gazelle hot, 80 Tigre, 300 transport helos).All with thermal cameras. Orchidée and C4ISR will be of paramount use to locate mobile armored egyptian columns.Bonus shell and PGM will crippled them before French engaging.No attempt to conquer Cairo but shock and awe.Then destruction by air.
 
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Herc the Merc    Franco German union??   4/27/2005 3:26:32 PM
Is it possible??
 
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ShallowThinker1    ? for Alexis - RE:Egypt first draft   4/27/2005 3:43:22 PM
Alexis, France will prebuild in Chad and Djibouti.3 months at least without engaging forces using negociation to win time before ultimatum.Our VETO right prevent UNO to cripple our effort.Sudanese or eythrean gov will be neutralized by combining threatand bribes. Is this that cultural influence, soft power, and diplomacy to bring other nations to your point of view kinda stuff you were talking about in the "World Powers in 2025" thread?
 
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Worcester    RE:gixx   4/27/2005 4:30:05 PM
Dont ever feel sorry for venting! European instability - agree it's a problem and we always end up carrying the can. It needs free market capitalism to make it work. But dont forget, we also want it to remain neutered which is why we quietly encourage the Brits in their 900 year old policy of preventing the emergence of any dominant power on the continent - who sponsored the enlargements, new President, new free market commissioners, etc? Rich and disunited, not poor and disunited. Free trade zone, not federal republic. Never here a word said about it, but UK diplomacy has far outflanked the French and the latter have just woken up to the prospect of a free market which they cant control and a dependency on Germany which irks them; hence the 58% of Frenchmen who'll vote down the EU Constitution; not that it will change anything. China - agree. But this again exposes the holes in the EU foreign policy; last week pro-China; this week anti-China. Difficult to believe the French have changed at all from simply being knee-jerk anti-American; and the other EU countries have their own views. Dont believe we should confuse NOISE from France with ACTIONS by other EU states. European inertia. Agree. But remember, when the new world opened, a land full of endless opportunity, the Europeans are the ones who didnt get on the boat. Not going to get a lot of initiative from them; or change. United Nations. Agree. The Lilliputians trying to tie down the American Gulliver as Swift would see it. If you recall the book, Gulliver broke free and when the Lilliput town caught fire, he saved them by pizzing on it! Perhaps they would have preferred a pre-emptive strategy.
 
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Worcester    RE:jhaley   4/27/2005 4:34:46 PM
Good analogy. But we want it to remain that way. Rich but disunited, a free market association; what they seem to be getting is united under social democracy...i.e. poor and united, which is a disaster waiting to happen.
 
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gixxxerking    Egypt Defense   4/27/2005 5:22:57 PM
Egypt: France will prebuild in Chad and Djibouti.3 months at least without engaging forces using negociation to win time before ultimatum.Our VETO right prevent UNO to cripple our effort.Sudanese or eythrean gov will be neutralized by combining threatand bribes. Two solutions for CdG task force: red sea or mediterranean. The goal is to eliminate the 4E2C, then gain airsuperiority. E2C locations as they are likely dispersed, will be find using Helios satelites, elint aircraft, ESSAIM elint satellites, orchidées and RPV dedicated to that task.And deep action commando. A first raid using Apache antirunway cruise missiles, Scalp cruise will try to destroy in the first strike as much E2C and F16.The one or two E2C in flight should be located real time by elint sat and plane.Then using making preflight trajectory by mission preparation tools to hide maximum using relief and under help of Carbone offensive jammer, wings of Rafales will try to shoot down E2C in flight then M2000D dispersed assets (F16 and E2).Rafale Spectra and low RCS, offensive jammer and terrain masking will help a lot to appraoch to 120 miles of E2C unoticed.Then speed and engagment of the F16 protective wing will be the key to victory.Rafale + link 16 will act as a awac to get awareness of situation before our awac then are close to coordinate aerial battle. The key is aerial battle. Once Egypt has losses their E2C I don't see them able to win any aerial battle. They have no means to attack French awac/E2F in a similar way (lack of means and technology). Then air superiority is won the 555 M1 + 1300 M60 of egypt will be crused as possible using orchideees, cluster bombs and PGM. Once air superiority is established and most of F16 threat dissapears, reactivated squadron reserve of F1CT and Jaguar will bring their 200 CAS aircraft potential along the 320 M2000and Rafale and 120Superetendard/F1CR/F1CT 4 digitized Leclerc armored heavy brigades, 2 mechanized heavy brigade will be: either landed on south of Egypt in red sea (north of erithrea), 4 to 6 fast mobile motorized light armored units (using AM10RC) and helo division coming from either Chad or Djibouti via soudan.LPH used as Helos relay in red sea along Erythrean coast. Total attack will involve 500 Leclerc and updated AMX30B2 and 300 AMX10RC, 660 auf1/Caesar/MRLS, 3000 IFV most wheeled , 550 helos (240 gazelle hot, 80 Tigre, 300 transport helos).All with thermal cameras. Orchidée and C4ISR will be of paramount use to locate mobile armored egyptian columns.Bonus shell and PGM will crippled them before French engaging.No attempt to conquer Cairo but shock and awe.Then destruction by air. ====================================================================================================== ====================================================================================================== Preparations: With 3 months of obvious build up. Egypt has a lot of options. The biggest feather in the Egyptian cap is strong defensive ties with the United States. Considering the EU lifting arms embargo to China. It would not be difficult for US defense industry to initiate increased sales to Egypt who is an ally in the WOT. That means increased F-16, E-2C and Munitions(Including JDAMS Kits) sales to Egypt. Also Egypt between 2005 and 2009 could purchase and operate 2 to 4 Kilo class SSKs to supplement its current force of 10 SSK's. In addition as the build up of forces in Chad and Djibouti would be obvious. Mining the Red Sea and Med in addition to the SSK's would make these waters very difficult for the CdG task force. Considering the size of the Egyptian Airforce, SSK's and mines and the large number of Egyptian missile boats. Egypt is properly prepaired to wage a defensive battle against a single unsupported French CdG task force. To deal with the issue of French forces in Chad. The following forces could be brought to bear. Since the time frame is 2009 it is likely that the Egyptian SSM program to convert its existing SCUD missile into SCUD B variants with 900+ mile ranges and CEP of 450m would be completed. This would effectively put any French force in Chad or Djibouti in extreme danger of missile bombardment. The warheads could be submunition or Chemical depending on mission requirements. Also considering the bad French Sudan relations aggrevated by FS threats Egyptian bombers could also recieve overflight rights for pre-emptive strikes. And French mission from Chad or Djibouti against Egypt would have to overfly hostile nations before reaching their targets. While it is concievable that Sudan and Eritrea might bow under French pressure not to attempt to stop French build up in Chad. It is Inconcievable that they would allow the French to overfly their airspace unmolested. link
 
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Jimme    War Games   4/27/2005 5:57:30 PM
These back and forth battles are kinda fun to read. it could be even better if you assaigned a panel of neutral veteran poster judges and agree on total resources of both nations before hand. then a round by round of posts that could be scored by the judges until one side gives up or the judges feel the victory or non victory is obvious. Good job Gix n FS
 
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Agammenon    Huh?   4/27/2005 8:27:10 PM
You said - "-- Oh, whats your relationship with Germans now?... many French historians actually show it as a Germanic bullying of poor Gaul and other Celtic people. - And until you sstarted calling Germans Huns, didnt English consider them like the closest friends and agrreable fellows?" Que?
 
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