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Subject: How rank France in world power?
french stratege    4/23/2005 9:33:41 PM
o be a world power means to master a number of power tools and capacities: Economic power: France have fourth largest economy in world, even UK GNP seems on a par.But in fact France has a slightly bigger GDP in Puchasing Power Parity, a stronguer industry as its share in GNP is bigger, and especially in military usable industry (automotive, steel, microelectronic ...). Its trade balnce is positive unless US and UK.We benefit of Euro in sense that in a crisis, Euro would not go down like pound.Our financial market is less sensitive to crisis than UK. Then our saving, gold and currencies reserves are higher. France has 43 companies in the WORLD FORTUNE 500 ranking, one more than Germany and much more than UK or Italy.For example UK industry is stronguer than France in prescription drug but you can not use that for war. War potential: US: 100; Japan: 55, Germany ,40, France 25, UK 20. Diplomatic influence: should I said that French diplomatic network is world class and second to US only (with better skills).That our foreign aid is higher than UK or US in GNP %? That we have VETO right in UNO? That our cultural influence is world second after US? Thank to our industry we can substitute to US or Russia to deliver to a friend the whole set of weapons INDEPENDANTLY (from airfighters to subs via tank or C4ISR) and can shift power balance in any area.WE ARE THE SECOND WESTERN INDEPENDANT SUPPLIER AFTER US FOR CAPACITIES. We are the only Euro nation to have the full INDEPENDANT world reco network which is second to USA. RECO satellites, Telecom satellites (bandwith second to US), ELINT satellites, DSP satellites (in 2008), METEO satellites, spy ships, 30 ELINT ground station in word with 2 dedicated to spy US satelites, SPACE SURVEILLANCE RADAR. An unkown assets is that we are the only nation with US which can produce any currencies in world (to make false money in perfect imitation - we are the best in Europe for money technology) Sensitivity to energy imports: Our oil company is fourth in world and we have ROBUST assets in non middle east areas like Gabon, Angola etc...We produce our oil industry heavy equipment and our industry is world second of US in this field. Our nuclear energy production is world second in world and give us independance on electricity.Our influence in Africa secure minerals imports. Sensitivity to embargo: France has world class semiconductors facilities and hold the more advanced Europe wafer fab (joint venture between Motorola, SGS Thomson and Philips). Our auto maker build 7,5 million car /year, we have Airbus main designed office in France and so on...Our industry is pretty well balanced and produce almost everything at world class. Then we are the only Euro nation with a launch pad and Euro leader in Space.So we do not depend on US or other nation. We produce the second set of weapons after US and we do not depend of any supplier. Military technology: we are mastering everything form nukes to C4ISR with a technological level recognised by US as world second (while UK is close after).Of course neither Japan, Germany or China enjoy such an advantage. Nukes: our nuclear force are world THIRD and we produce precise counterforce weapons INDEPENDANTLY.Good second strike ability.400 warheads vs 200 for UK.(and we have stored weapons we can reactivate).3 SSBN can strike anywhere in the world. Military skills: our war academy is renown with US and UK.Israelis send some generals to perfectionate. Should I remember that Saudia Arabia asked French to crush rebellion in Mecka and not to US or UK?Saudis special forces and military stalled two weeks before asking France help.We did it in two days with 70 commandos leading Saudi commando (and using combat nerve gaz killing 2000 rebels). Mitary capacities. Second world force projection from 2007 to 2012 as a single Cdg with 3E2C and 40 Rafales, protected by 19 frigates with top ASW, 6 SSN and 3 Horizon with ASTER 30 outperform anything UK have: Indeed UK has 2 ACTIVE small carriers (with limited self protection and 60 harriers), they will not have any BVR fighters with FA2 retirement, and not antiship capacity since Harrier GR7/9 have NO RADAR!! UK air force has an handfull of non operational EF supported by 63 old Tornado ADV.No medium range airdefense for their troops. They have more SSN (soon reduced to 8 only) and military transport but we rely on civilian military prepared transports from french companies and our overseas bases to accumulate locally . ONLY US, UK, Russia and Japan has a sub force strong enough to put in danger our fleet. In fact we can crush any OPFOR airforce of 100 SU27/Mig29 (plus old MIGS or SU) without AWAC, ONLY relying on Cdg (even I agree a second would be better and needed). Most of nation do not have ENOUGH YAKHONT equivalent missiles to crush our naval force until our second carrier is operational. UK is unable to do that and in 2010 only 4 T45 will have entered service
 
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gixxxerking    RE:GoG its combined arms   5/11/2005 1:31:17 PM
One issue the Argies had was that they had very little fuel for dogfighting or multiple passes or evassive action. With the tanker situation being what it is and the range to target being 1000 miles + for FAF that puts them in similar position unless they can put a tanker near the combat zone as gf0012-aust suggested. But the that would require support for the support from an already thinly stretched force.
 
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french stratege    gf and other   5/11/2005 1:42:22 PM
I have already adressed many issues people still raise formerly: Step 1: On first strike: Cdg close to Corfu Greece but in international water at mid distance between Corsica and France. Priority is to destroy Egypt C4ISR and E2C detected (in flight or on ground) using Rafale (20 on 89 available) at silverbullet. Then detail on following 140 plane first main strike from 4 axis (Djibouti/Corsica/Chad/Cdg) using air refueling (1000 tons delivery) link Step 2: bombing until complete destruction of Egypt air force especially remaining E2C and F16 (213 aircraft) then attrtition to 50% at least of Egypt ground force (16 000 PGM used plus cluster bombs and dumb bombs) Step 3: No significant air threat, ground forces has lost mobility amphibious landing group prepared, In Chad motorized wheel corps as a diversion and to attrac and disperse remaining ground forces and doing further attrition Step4: amphibious landing group land on west med coast or east or even red sea after CdG rejoin group withing inLa Réunion or Djibouti Step5: block Nile Valley and some town but no attempt to control most populated area, only Harbors and cutting communication in Nile Valley to make Egyptian life impossible. **************** Unloading: Egypt air force is 80% killed for F16/M2000/F4. Cdg 100 miles away with main transport group. First waves: Airmobile: 80 transport helos, 80 attack (hot 2) 3 marines regiments Airborne: 4 regiments Then Beach: 1 LPH, 5 LSL, 4 LPD, 20 ro-ro ferries with Mistral for air protection. 80 Leclerc, 8 rolands tank SAM, 18 engineer vehicules (mine sweeper, EBG). 2 marines regiments and 8 motorized regiments. Support: 160 CAS sorties (80 from Cdg) plus Rafales CAP for airdefense plus 2 Horizon and 5 Lafayettes and 9 Avisos providing 100 mm artillery (80 13,6 kg shell/minute/gun so 15 tons shells per minute) .Plus 120* 120 mm rifled mortars airlift. 100 combat helos with AT missiles. All our IFV/VAB/VBL float and are directly unloaded form transports ramps (usual practice). VBL is like an armored hummer but amphibious (4 tons). 1200 IFV/ITV(VAB) and 600 VBL unloaded in first hours.50 VAB HOT antitank with thermal cameras. (30 ships stay in Cdg group for follow-on) End of day: Aster30 batteries, 24 Rolands NG, manpads (200), 40 more leclerc, 48 AUF2/1, 16 MRLS. 1056 infantery squads.Each AUF1 can deliver 10/8 bonus shell per minutes (2 smart IR guided top attack antitank bomblet).So up to 480 bonus shell and 960 bomblets/minutes coordinated by Orchidées helos. Or Ogre shells with 32 bomblets. Goals are: -to secure an harbor (Al sallum, Marsa Mathru, Port Said??) or to unload on beach using mexefloats, LSL and cranes. -To establish beach head and prepare for 3 armored/mechanized Egyptian division counter attack BUT WITHOUT AIRSUPPORT as Egyptian air force is almost down. Indeed it remains at this point 680 heavy armored vehicules (AUF1/2, Leclerc, enginners) which don't float and 800 heavy truck which can not be airlifted by helos from ships. These have to be unloaded in next days.
 
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gixxxerking    RE:gf and other   5/11/2005 2:08:00 PM
FS you really are being stubborn. Very well. The result is your force is is badly mauled after some initial success and in the end your ambitions are bigger than your capabilities. The scenario is over my friend.
 
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gixxxerking    RE:gf and other   5/11/2005 2:14:21 PM
Reminder for FS: link
 
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ret13f    RE:FS   5/11/2005 2:51:35 PM
"On first strike: Cdg close to Corfu Greece but in international water at mid distance between Corsica and France."---Huh!? is it close to Corfu? "Then detail on following 140 plane first main strike from 4 axis (Djibouti/Corsica/Chad/Cdg) using air refueling"-- Corsica-Sollum: 1700 Km, unless you plan to involve Italy by overflying her airspace. Djibouti-Aswan: 1800 Km Chad (Faya-Largeau)-Aswan 1450 Km How many tanking AC do you have, pure tankers, because anything else is tied up trying to support your Chad operation. (ya'll probably should have left a little more infrastructure there). and those destination are just to show the distances involved, unless you have some particular reason to bomb the Bejesus out of sollum (hmmm, you think the trams will still be running)(if you get that, good for you).
 
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gixxxerking    Bingo Fuel   5/11/2005 3:03:05 PM
FS what is the break down of that 140 plane Stike? How many on Sweep, SEAD, Bombing, EW missions? At what point are you refueling? What are the load outs? Please tell me.
 
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Nichevo    RE:gf0012 - Nichevo   5/11/2005 9:55:57 PM
gf0012-aust RE:gf0012 - Nichevo 5/11/2005 2:41:01 AM I'm assuming that your response was in reply to GoG's response to me? Yes, of course. Now please send me some damn giant prawns please before we have to invade ;>.
 
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Nichevo    RE:nichevo: falklands analogy   5/11/2005 10:24:26 PM
Godofgamblers nichevo: falklands analogy 5/11/2005 6:36:32 AM my reference to the falklands wasn't about comparing the occupations, as obviously they are vastly different, but about the vulnerability of naval assets to SSM and troop performance: western vs. second rate/third world troops. Well yes, the "wog" factor. Or Fuzzy-Wuzzy or whatever other epithet you like. Then again many once thought the Japanese wogs, or the Chinese, or the Vietnamese, or the Afghans, to their dismay. Are the Egyptians wogs? There is some fraction of their force that will fight to first world standards. There is no reason to believe there are not some reasonably competent Egyptian pilots and that the American equipment and training is of no use whatsoever. Mohammed Atta was a reasonably competent Egyptian pilot. I don't think they let morons into the EAF, or if so, into jet pits. If you want to assume a 50% ready rate for the EAF vs. 75% for the FAF, or some other ratio, that makes sense, but assuming they will flop does not. And aside from competence, for every image of Arab armies surrendering en masse, there is an image of some tribesman tearing open his shirt and charging into a hail of bullets. Some people think their armies will crumble at the sight of a Frenchman. Well, the Iraqis lose when they fight us, but they continue to fight. Furthermore, as wogs and Arabs go, Egypt as I understand it is the pick of the litter. Egypt is the only natural historic Arab nation-state, the rest are "tribes with flags" created by such as Sykes-Picot. I am not sure they are even Arabs, at least not all of them, I remember something about aborigineal Egyptian peoples...it could be a black-brown thing or something like... Anyway, futile racialism aside, the Egyptians have had flashes of brilliance even against Israel at times. While some sort of demoralization, disinformation, or other non-military measures such as corruption or subversion, or supermilitary means such as an atomic demonstration could sap their strength, that seems not to be part of this analysis. On average, I would expect the Egyptian military to perform about average, with some CF'd units and some STRAC ones, and I would expect them to follow orders and doctrine for at least a little while. They would have the classic defender's advantage, knowledge of the terrain and local issues, and no local factions sympathetic to the invader or discontented masses hopeful for change. And they would know that this same army had visited once before, under a better leader, and that that army had gone out again. No, I don't see why the Egyptians would go girlying up. In particular, I think gun-camera or missile-eye films of say a French frigate or oiler getting lit up by a silver bullet or golden BB would really buck up the nation and unite them against the invader. If the French had a plan where they utterly creamed the Egyptians on the way in with few or no losses, they might better count on the populace to submit and the forces to lay down their arms. Gixx has certanly shown to my satisfaction that the French have every chance of getting their nose bloodied. What no one has shown me is a reason for this war that I accept. Nor, unless Gixx is correct in asserting it as total domination, a French OBJ. britain suffered heavily from SSM and i assume france would; the argies buckled against brits and i assume the Egyptians would too. Egypt is far better provided for. Far, far better. And again, the French aren't on a punitive raid or taking back what is theirs. They are on their way to spread Egypt's legs and go for a ride until they are tired and feel like a smoke. They seem to think those knees will melt right apart under the caresses of their Rafaels and their bombes futées and that Egypt will start moaning and moving her hips. and no, i'm sharing my stash with you! :) Glad to hear it. Much do I regret our distance apart ;>
 
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Nichevo    RE:nichevo: falklands analogy - http://www.globalsecurity.org/military/world/egypt/   5/11/2005 10:29:55 PM
Paramilitary forces numbered about 440,000 as of 2002, including Border Guards (part of the Ministry of Defense), the People?s Defense (basically rural para-military reserve militia, under the Ministry of Defense, equipped with small arms and light anti-personnel variant of RPG-7 rocket), the Central Security Forces (est. between 150,000 and 300,000, operating nationally as the principal domestic security force, and equipped with armored vehicles, mortars and other medium weapons; comes under the Ministry of Interior), and Coast Guard (a unit of the Navy). Units * HQ, Operations Authority: Cairo * HQ, Second Field Army: Ismaelia * HQ, Third Field Army: Suez * HQ, Western Military Region: Sidi Buraimi * HQ. Central Military Region: Cairo * HQ, Northern Military Region: Alexandria * HQ, Southern Military Region: Assiut * 4 armored divisions (each consisting of 2 armored brigade and 1 mechanized brigade, and 1 artillery brigade). * 8 mechanized infantry divisions (each consisting of 1 armored brigade, 2 mechanized brigades, and 1 artillery brigade). * 1 Republican Guard Armored Brigade. * 4 independent armored brigades. * 2 independent infantry brigades. * 1 airmobile brigades. * 1 airborne brigade. * 6 commando groups. * 15 independent artillery brigades. * 2 heavy mortar brigades. * 6 ATGW brigades. * 2 SSM brigades Army The army has always been the largest and most important branch of the armed forces. The army had an estimated strength of 320,000 in 1989. About 180,000 of these were conscripts. In 1989 the navy had 18,000 personnel, not including 2,000 members in the Coast Guard. Three-year conscripts accounted for about half of the personnel. Principal bases were at Alexandria (Al Iskandariyah), Port Said, and Marsa Matruh on the Mediterranean Sea, at Port Tawfiq (Bur Tawfiq) near Suez, and at Al Ghardaqah and Bur Safajah on the Red Sea. Some fleet units were stationed in the Red Sea, but the bulk of the force remained in the Mediterranean. Navy headquarters and the main operational and training base were located at Ras at Tin near Alexandria. As of 1989, the Egyptian air force had more than 500 combat aircraft and 30,000 personnel, of which 10,000 were conscripts. Its front-rank fighters consisted of sixty-seven multimission F-16 A/Cs and thirty-three F-4Es from the United States, as well as sixteen Mirage 2000s from France. A large inventory of older MiG aircraft (some of which were Chinese versions assembled in Egypt) backed up the more modern fighters. The air force had fitted many of the MiGs with advanced Western electronics, including radars, jamming equipment, and Sidewinder and Matra air-to-air missiles. The Air Defense Force exercised operational control of about 135 MiG interceptors, although their aircraft and personnel remained part of the air force. Egypt also planned to exchange crude oil for fifty Pucara light ground-attack fighters from Argentina. The air force operated seventy-two combat helicopters and a number of electronic-monitoring, maritime-patrol, reconnaissance, and earlywarning aircraft. Some of these aircraft were capable of detecting low-flying targets at great distances. In 1989 the ADF had an estimated 80,000 ground and air personnel, including 50,000 conscripts. Its main constituents were 100 antiaircraft-gun battalions, 65 battalions of SA-2 SAMs, 60 battalions of SA-3 SAMs, 12 batteries of improved Hawk SAMs (I-Hawk), and 1 battery of Crotale missiles. Each battalion had between 200 and 500 men, and from four to eight battalions composed a brigade. Gun and missile sites were located along the Suez Canal, around Cairo, and near some other cities to protect military installations and strategic civilian targets. The ADF deployed some of its more mobile weapons in the Western Desert as a defense against possible Libyan incursions.
 
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ex-98C    Summary   5/11/2005 10:31:05 PM
If you don?t mind I?m going to give a little summation of where the thread stands. FS has proposed an invasion of Egypt after a three month build-up. This invasion has at various times included one or more of three potential axis of approach. The first is an attack from Chad into the South-west corner of Egypt; an attack from Djibouti, up the Red Sea coast; finally, an attack from France/Corsica against the Egyptian Med ports. I will address each of these in turn as well as additional comments about the logistics and the Air and Naval battle. Chad: It seems to me that most here agree, except for Stratege (and possibly BW), that the diversionary light mechanized attack from Chad is folly. As many have pointed out the Logistical effort needed to deliver and then adequately supply those two divisions would be a strain for the ENTIRE French logistical system, leaving little to support the main operational thrusts. The Base of operations for the attack lays over 600 miles from the Egyptian border. At least 200 of those miles in another countries (Libya or Sudan) territory. Once the force reaches Egypt it is still 400 miles away from any worthwhile target. If I was involved in the decision making process (say Gixxxer?s much put upon Chief of Staff) I would maintain surveillance on the Force, put a reserve division or two in Al Minya, and encourage raids by irregulars on the supply line. If it stayed near the border I would ignore it, if it tried to approach more valuable territory I would shift forces to crush it. It would have little combat power (many of its assets needed to insure security of convoy route) flanks open and unguarded, at a distance were only limited air support can be provided, and out of support range of any other forces. In other words it would take too much to employ it, most likely be ignored, and if not ignored be in extreme danger of being wiped out. Djibouti: This was Stratege?s initial main axis of attack consisting of an amphibious landing at Ras Banas with forces pushing on to Aswan. This plan seems to have been superseded by attacking through the Med. The ranges from base are about the same, though the advantages of shorter logistical lines, better and more numerous landing sites lay with the Med attack. There has been some mention of a second diversionary attack from Djibouti, but that would be even more foolhardy than the Chad plan since it would have to be amphibious and almost all of the escort ships are with the CdeG in the Med. I agree that the Egyptian navy and Air force would have a difficult time with the concentrated French Naval, but an amphibious group without that protection would be lambs to the slaughter The Med: This was initially suggested by BW and Stratege seems to have come around on the idea. The most popular landing site seems to be Marsa Madruh (Sp?) on the North West coast. This has several advantages over other suggested ports such as Alexandria and Port Said because it is outside the area of concentration for the Egyptian forces which are oriented on the Canal, Cairo and the Nile delta. Landing further east invites the chance of being overwhelmed by the Egyptian mass before a proper beach head can be established. To be continued?.
 
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