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Subject: How rank France in world power?
french stratege    4/23/2005 9:33:41 PM
o be a world power means to master a number of power tools and capacities: Economic power: France have fourth largest economy in world, even UK GNP seems on a par.But in fact France has a slightly bigger GDP in Puchasing Power Parity, a stronguer industry as its share in GNP is bigger, and especially in military usable industry (automotive, steel, microelectronic ...). Its trade balnce is positive unless US and UK.We benefit of Euro in sense that in a crisis, Euro would not go down like pound.Our financial market is less sensitive to crisis than UK. Then our saving, gold and currencies reserves are higher. France has 43 companies in the WORLD FORTUNE 500 ranking, one more than Germany and much more than UK or Italy.For example UK industry is stronguer than France in prescription drug but you can not use that for war. War potential: US: 100; Japan: 55, Germany ,40, France 25, UK 20. Diplomatic influence: should I said that French diplomatic network is world class and second to US only (with better skills).That our foreign aid is higher than UK or US in GNP %? That we have VETO right in UNO? That our cultural influence is world second after US? Thank to our industry we can substitute to US or Russia to deliver to a friend the whole set of weapons INDEPENDANTLY (from airfighters to subs via tank or C4ISR) and can shift power balance in any area.WE ARE THE SECOND WESTERN INDEPENDANT SUPPLIER AFTER US FOR CAPACITIES. We are the only Euro nation to have the full INDEPENDANT world reco network which is second to USA. RECO satellites, Telecom satellites (bandwith second to US), ELINT satellites, DSP satellites (in 2008), METEO satellites, spy ships, 30 ELINT ground station in word with 2 dedicated to spy US satelites, SPACE SURVEILLANCE RADAR. An unkown assets is that we are the only nation with US which can produce any currencies in world (to make false money in perfect imitation - we are the best in Europe for money technology) Sensitivity to energy imports: Our oil company is fourth in world and we have ROBUST assets in non middle east areas like Gabon, Angola etc...We produce our oil industry heavy equipment and our industry is world second of US in this field. Our nuclear energy production is world second in world and give us independance on electricity.Our influence in Africa secure minerals imports. Sensitivity to embargo: France has world class semiconductors facilities and hold the more advanced Europe wafer fab (joint venture between Motorola, SGS Thomson and Philips). Our auto maker build 7,5 million car /year, we have Airbus main designed office in France and so on...Our industry is pretty well balanced and produce almost everything at world class. Then we are the only Euro nation with a launch pad and Euro leader in Space.So we do not depend on US or other nation. We produce the second set of weapons after US and we do not depend of any supplier. Military technology: we are mastering everything form nukes to C4ISR with a technological level recognised by US as world second (while UK is close after).Of course neither Japan, Germany or China enjoy such an advantage. Nukes: our nuclear force are world THIRD and we produce precise counterforce weapons INDEPENDANTLY.Good second strike ability.400 warheads vs 200 for UK.(and we have stored weapons we can reactivate).3 SSBN can strike anywhere in the world. Military skills: our war academy is renown with US and UK.Israelis send some generals to perfectionate. Should I remember that Saudia Arabia asked French to crush rebellion in Mecka and not to US or UK?Saudis special forces and military stalled two weeks before asking France help.We did it in two days with 70 commandos leading Saudi commando (and using combat nerve gaz killing 2000 rebels). Mitary capacities. Second world force projection from 2007 to 2012 as a single Cdg with 3E2C and 40 Rafales, protected by 19 frigates with top ASW, 6 SSN and 3 Horizon with ASTER 30 outperform anything UK have: Indeed UK has 2 ACTIVE small carriers (with limited self protection and 60 harriers), they will not have any BVR fighters with FA2 retirement, and not antiship capacity since Harrier GR7/9 have NO RADAR!! UK air force has an handfull of non operational EF supported by 63 old Tornado ADV.No medium range airdefense for their troops. They have more SSN (soon reduced to 8 only) and military transport but we rely on civilian military prepared transports from french companies and our overseas bases to accumulate locally . ONLY US, UK, Russia and Japan has a sub force strong enough to put in danger our fleet. In fact we can crush any OPFOR airforce of 100 SU27/Mig29 (plus old MIGS or SU) without AWAC, ONLY relying on Cdg (even I agree a second would be better and needed). Most of nation do not have ENOUGH YAKHONT equivalent missiles to crush our naval force until our second carrier is operational. UK is unable to do that and in 2010 only 4 T45 will have entered service
 
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french stratege    ret13   5/10/2005 3:40:36 PM
Corsica is about 1250 km, whe CDG close to Greece at Curfu latitude so FAF air suppport of fleet is then easier and even possible with a single refueling by Supertendard from Cdg.
 
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Ehran    RE:Glen   5/10/2005 3:41:42 PM
based on earlier numbers presented FS is committing virtually the entire standing french army and between 1/3 and 1/2 of the reserves and gendarmerie. gee hope nothing else crops up hehe.
 
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french stratege    Ehran check numbers : Used: 150 000 men so 29%   5/10/2005 3:55:43 PM
"FS is committing virtually the entire standing french army and between 1/3 and 1/2 of the reserves and gendarmerie" UNEXACT: 90 000 army men (and a part from reserve), plus 30/40 000 airforce abroad (chad /Djibouti), plus 20 000 gendarmes after landing. Remain half active army if we add reserve which become active plus civilian support in france, -gendarmerie stay at 100 000 in france as some reserve fill the gap -air force stay at 40 000 in France if we use 10 000 reservist for base support. -navy support stay in France at this current level: only 5000 men added in Djibouti ,reservists fill French gap. 443 000 peace time plus 60 000 reserve=503 000 Used: 150 000 men so 29%
 
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glenponder    french strat   5/10/2005 3:57:13 PM
Cheers FS.
 
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french stratege    RE:Ehran check numbers : Used: 150 000 men so 29%   5/10/2005 3:58:26 PM
Under French law our maximum force strenght is 650 000 today with full reserve. So even we push to 300 000 in Egypt months after landing, it is feasible.
 
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gixxxerking    Answer These Questions FS   5/10/2005 4:21:11 PM
- You never adressed issues of numbers vs a total of antimissile capable number of 1400 (176 to 240 Aster, 390 crotale NG, 800 mistral )without counting CIWS, networking and jammer/decoys, ---Yes I did FS. I gave you an approximate list of fighters, ships, subs and missiles. LOL, first it was 128 Aster, then 176 now 240? WTF FS? You have the CdG/Aster 15 and 2 Horizon/Aster 30 in 2009. Maybe a little more Aster 15. But Aster 30 is limited to 48 VLS for each Horizon FFG. Crotale and Mistral are good for dealing with "leakers". But if multiple missiles get in you inner AAW screen they are incapable of dealing with the threat. Same for CIWS. And stop making toy list. YOu do not have 1400 ready to fire missiles. My patience for this propaganda is growing very thin. - you never adressed fact that Egyptian raid will have to cross a 20 Rafale F2 shield plus FAF aircraft (around 10) coordinated by E2C, so that the F16 able to release Harpoon or Harm with dubious efficency will be very few. (and I remember that departure of F16 from Egypt will be detected so CAP number increased) ---Yes I realise this. But I also know that your CAP will not realistically exceed 20 to 30 aircrafts. And I have sent 48 to 60 F-16 to directly engage the CAP with Sparrow. Also since most of my weapons are launched at 80 to 100+ nm away from your fleet. Scrambled aircraft will have to use Afterburner to get into position for intercept. Loiter time will be an issue in addition to dueling with the F-16 fighter SWEEP. The SWEEP leads the raid draw away your fighters. If you ignore the SWEEP they will kill your CAP. If you engage the SWEEP you will deplete your missiles, take losses and be ow on fuel to engage the bombers. Who will also have time to fire Anti-Ship weapons before your MICA are launched or reach the bombers. ---E-2C/UAV/SSK/Satellite coordinate raid and provide intelligence. EW TU-16 or other aircraftprovides jamming. Deception flight of F-4/M2000 air to air armed scramble toward fleet to draw response. Operation is timed to catch FAF CAP low on fuel and before relief can reach the area. CdG likely scrambles fighters to assist not knowing if this is a strike or not. Following the diversion the 48 F-16 SWEEP and Strike element are launched. Just before your fighters get withing missile range of the diversion they with RTB and avoid a fight unless the E-2c is in range If it is they will attempt to engage it. It will likely have to run and temporarily reduce coverage. staying under the radar horizon the SWEEP/Strike will move toward CdG. Enroute to the CdG the SWEEP/SEAD element will seperate from the Strike to suppress defense and draw fire. The Strike is only 35 to 45 minutes out if CdG is near Crete. Actually 25 to 30 mins from launch range. At this point you may or may not be able to detect the strike with OTH/AWACs. But it is too late at this point for that to matter. Because now your fighters are low on fuel diverted and about to be engaged by SWEEP who will rise above radar horizon and make obvious that the CdG is a target. Now nearby SSK fires Harpoons on bearing only attack toward your fleet on a different axis. You will now have to activate radar and break EMCON or vector some fighters to try and shoot the missile. Your CAP and the SWEEP will meet. NOW PAY ATTENTION. YOu will have to use FIGHTERS to engage because aircraft are not in range of your SAMs. the Strike is now moving to lauch position. There will be an air battle unless the CAP wants to be slaughtered. As the air battle begins the SEAD seperated from the Strike and begins firing HARM and AS-5 ARM at the fleet. Shortly after this, the Harpoon and ASM AS-5 are fired. TU-16 immediately RTB. Unladen F-16 with AIM-9 prepare to engage any fighters. A second salvo of HARM is fired timed to reach the Group with the ASM. Mig-21 with drop tanks and bombs follow at high altitude to avaiod remaining SAMs. I EXPECT TO LOSE 50% OF MY FORCE BUT I EXPECT TO FIRE 80% OF MY ASM BEFORE TAKING LOSSES. Your fate is sealed. Here is what you are facing. Missile boats will also go weapons free. Air Component(not counting diversion and support planes)- 48 F-16 escort/SWEEP 48 HARM From F-16 48 ARM from the TU-16 24 ASM From the Tu-16 48 Harpoon Block 2 From F-16 then swing role to Fighter Sweep with AIM-9 after deploying Harpoon 24 Mig-21 with Rocket pods and Bombs. Sea Component- 48 SSM From OSA/Ambassador Mk III 16 SSM from Moray SSK Torpedo/SSM From Romeo SAG of 6 FFG in reserve - you completely overestimate HARM efficiency on mobile networked radar in dense EW environement (should I remember a ship travel at 10 m/s at least so shuting its radar during a second will make HARM missile pass 10 meters away radar aerial - an Harm issile will be detected in a distance between 10 to 20 km - US navy doctrine NEVER emphasys Harm as a potent anti ship weapon - Egyptian have older HARM versions) ---The HARM
 
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gixxxerking    OMG is he for real!   5/10/2005 4:34:18 PM
Outnumbered 4 to 1 in tanks at the landing site and with only 160 sorties you honestly believe you can land! FS what are you thinking about. IRAQ was far weaker, took weeks of sustained bombing from a real superpower plus coalition. And even with the USMC who by itself is a more powerful force that all the French military decided taking a beachead too costly. But you insist on doing this with a fraction of that force against a foe 10 times as strong with much more advanced weapons and doctrine? Are you mad. FS people would laugh you out of office if you polled this question. And with what are you moving all that armor? Jesus.
 
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french stratege    real power in procurement   5/10/2005 4:35:56 PM
link Interesting: We will have more Rafale than I thought in 2009: 89 in 2008 with 19+13 (tranche 1) rafale Marine then add 19 additional in 2009 so 108 in total -C135 have life extension - Mica is delivered at 170 number/year IN 2005 US get 248 AMRAAM and France 170 MICA IN 2005 US get 218 Tomahawk and France 100 SCALP cruise missile IN 2005 US get 24 Raptor and 42 F18E: total: 66 IN 2005 FRANCE get 15 Rafale F2 Air and 5 Rafale M (Navy) total: 19 link - Scalp at 100/year - BONUS-ACED at 663/year - we already have 5 more tranport plane in 2008.And French A400M have air refueling capacity of 45 tons.Probably 6 to 8 A400M in 2009 PS: "Défense aérienne élargie (DAE/DAMB) Développement d'une capacité de défense antimissiles balistique avec acquisition d'un premier radar M3 R en fin de période" We have ballistic missile defense radar in 2007/8
 
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gixxxerking    Real power is in logistics! Have you learned nothing?   5/10/2005 4:39:31 PM
FS who the hell cares. You need to be worried about KC-10. You could have 1000 Rafale and it doesnt matter because you cant support them outside of France! Real power is in logistics!
 
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gixxxerking    Beaten at Sea, Beaten in the air and beaten on the Beach   5/10/2005 4:43:50 PM
After reading these outrageous post is there anymore question that France is not able to project real power even in 2009? Is there any real questions out there because this scenario is over in any rational military sense?
 
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