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Subject: How rank France in world power?
french stratege    4/23/2005 9:33:41 PM
o be a world power means to master a number of power tools and capacities: Economic power: France have fourth largest economy in world, even UK GNP seems on a par.But in fact France has a slightly bigger GDP in Puchasing Power Parity, a stronguer industry as its share in GNP is bigger, and especially in military usable industry (automotive, steel, microelectronic ...). Its trade balnce is positive unless US and UK.We benefit of Euro in sense that in a crisis, Euro would not go down like pound.Our financial market is less sensitive to crisis than UK. Then our saving, gold and currencies reserves are higher. France has 43 companies in the WORLD FORTUNE 500 ranking, one more than Germany and much more than UK or Italy.For example UK industry is stronguer than France in prescription drug but you can not use that for war. War potential: US: 100; Japan: 55, Germany ,40, France 25, UK 20. Diplomatic influence: should I said that French diplomatic network is world class and second to US only (with better skills).That our foreign aid is higher than UK or US in GNP %? That we have VETO right in UNO? That our cultural influence is world second after US? Thank to our industry we can substitute to US or Russia to deliver to a friend the whole set of weapons INDEPENDANTLY (from airfighters to subs via tank or C4ISR) and can shift power balance in any area.WE ARE THE SECOND WESTERN INDEPENDANT SUPPLIER AFTER US FOR CAPACITIES. We are the only Euro nation to have the full INDEPENDANT world reco network which is second to USA. RECO satellites, Telecom satellites (bandwith second to US), ELINT satellites, DSP satellites (in 2008), METEO satellites, spy ships, 30 ELINT ground station in word with 2 dedicated to spy US satelites, SPACE SURVEILLANCE RADAR. An unkown assets is that we are the only nation with US which can produce any currencies in world (to make false money in perfect imitation - we are the best in Europe for money technology) Sensitivity to energy imports: Our oil company is fourth in world and we have ROBUST assets in non middle east areas like Gabon, Angola etc...We produce our oil industry heavy equipment and our industry is world second of US in this field. Our nuclear energy production is world second in world and give us independance on electricity.Our influence in Africa secure minerals imports. Sensitivity to embargo: France has world class semiconductors facilities and hold the more advanced Europe wafer fab (joint venture between Motorola, SGS Thomson and Philips). Our auto maker build 7,5 million car /year, we have Airbus main designed office in France and so on...Our industry is pretty well balanced and produce almost everything at world class. Then we are the only Euro nation with a launch pad and Euro leader in Space.So we do not depend on US or other nation. We produce the second set of weapons after US and we do not depend of any supplier. Military technology: we are mastering everything form nukes to C4ISR with a technological level recognised by US as world second (while UK is close after).Of course neither Japan, Germany or China enjoy such an advantage. Nukes: our nuclear force are world THIRD and we produce precise counterforce weapons INDEPENDANTLY.Good second strike ability.400 warheads vs 200 for UK.(and we have stored weapons we can reactivate).3 SSBN can strike anywhere in the world. Military skills: our war academy is renown with US and UK.Israelis send some generals to perfectionate. Should I remember that Saudia Arabia asked French to crush rebellion in Mecka and not to US or UK?Saudis special forces and military stalled two weeks before asking France help.We did it in two days with 70 commandos leading Saudi commando (and using combat nerve gaz killing 2000 rebels). Mitary capacities. Second world force projection from 2007 to 2012 as a single Cdg with 3E2C and 40 Rafales, protected by 19 frigates with top ASW, 6 SSN and 3 Horizon with ASTER 30 outperform anything UK have: Indeed UK has 2 ACTIVE small carriers (with limited self protection and 60 harriers), they will not have any BVR fighters with FA2 retirement, and not antiship capacity since Harrier GR7/9 have NO RADAR!! UK air force has an handfull of non operational EF supported by 63 old Tornado ADV.No medium range airdefense for their troops. They have more SSN (soon reduced to 8 only) and military transport but we rely on civilian military prepared transports from french companies and our overseas bases to accumulate locally . ONLY US, UK, Russia and Japan has a sub force strong enough to put in danger our fleet. In fact we can crush any OPFOR airforce of 100 SU27/Mig29 (plus old MIGS or SU) without AWAC, ONLY relying on Cdg (even I agree a second would be better and needed). Most of nation do not have ENOUGH YAKHONT equivalent missiles to crush our naval force until our second carrier is operational. UK is unable to do that and in 2010 only 4 T45 will have entered service
 
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gixxxerking    RE:Fall out - gf0012-aust   5/9/2005 9:11:41 PM
seems like that would be a good chance to test your Collins vs CVN theory! And I suspect the Collins to be a lot more dangerous than an Improved Romeo.
 
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Bluewings    RE:To BW / HARM   5/9/2005 9:20:42 PM
The model sold to Egypt is the "Harpoon Block II" ~AGM-84L variant . Max speed : 1,216 km/h Cheers .
 
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Bluewings    RE:HARPOON / HARM   5/9/2005 9:26:06 PM
Oooops . I 've just noticed that I messed up between the harpoon and HARM ! I apologize to everybody , in particulary to Gixxx and EW3 . (Merde !lol) I say again , I am sorry :-( Cheers .
 
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gixxxerking    GoG an example for you...   5/9/2005 9:40:56 PM
...of an ill concieved operation. 160 CAS sorties with 80 being from CdG. Now remember the CdG has a compliment of approx 40 aircraft. For 80 sorties to come from CdG would mean two things have to have happened in addition to the impossible task of CdG surviving this close to Egypt. None of CdG planes are down for maintenance and NONE were lost to the EAF. But what is more amazing is that none of these Sorties are for CAP. So EAF fast jets and Helos can maul the landing. Unless the French think they can totally destroy ALL of Egypts aircraft. But wait, there is more! 80 CAS Sorties are from the FAF over 1000 miles away from the LZ! Now I dont know about you but when I have called for fire support or airstrike. It means I need it now! As in 5 minutes ago. The longer it takes the more lives are lost. How long does it take to fly 1000 miles? Quite a long time if you are pinned down or being flanked by armor! So the FAF would have to tank and rotate CAS armed aircraft to have continuous coverage. Now here comes the neglected logistics issue. With only 14 dedicated Tankers and the FAF requiring fuel for the trip to and from the LZ. How is France doing this? Each KC-135 is only going to fuel approx 8 planes at a time. Then it must refuel. Also there is no mention of SEAD? Mobile SAMs will have a field day! Lets get back to the tankers. 1 tanker 500 to 700 miles out. 8 FAF planes take some gas to get to the beach. Then it must RTB. Its out of play for at least 4 more hours so it can refuel do post flight ect. So another Tanker must sortie to take its place. As it arrives the FAF planes on CAS meet it and take gas so they can also RTB. Another Tanker must relieve it. How does France support this with only 14 tankers without leaving significant gaps in air support! Imagine being pinned down and your CO tells you the FAF will be here in an hour just hold on while Abrams is banging away at you! Considering that fiasco why would I waste time debating the landing. It is not even a question that it woulds lead to a lot of French KIA/POWs.
 
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gixxxerking    RE:HARPOON / HARM   5/9/2005 9:47:28 PM
Forgiven BW. The HARM is to be coordinated with the Harpoon, AS-5 attack such that ARM are striking the radar of the fleet to blind them. Every Aster fired at a HARM is allowing a Harpoon/AS-5 to get in the inner screen in greater numbers to help with saturation. A HARM that actually hits takes the Radar and fire control of the ship out of the air defense scenario. Also for smaller vessels the HARM could actually destroy the ship with a direct hit due to fire or casuaties. Basically the HARMs and AS-5s are cover for the Harpoons and Mig-21/bomb combo with the added bonus of a hit(especially by AS-5) killing the ship that is impacted.
 
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Godofgamblers    gix, who i am   5/9/2005 9:58:27 PM
gix, both you and FS have written me posts trying to convince me of the losses/modalities of a naval invasion of egypt. in fact, i have never served in any country's armed forces, and i know little of naval matters; i am learning from your posts, rather than judging either of you. my background is actually east european studies. i have a MA in French, but actually i trained to be a linguist, specializing in Slavic languages: my specialty was Polish with Russian as a minor. i lived in Poland during the cold war and the Ukraine in '92 where i worked at two companies in "STRATEGIC INTELLIGENCE" (sounds impressive, but basically a publication for companies in the Ukraine to assess the level of risk, regulatory, politial, etc). basically though, with the end of the cold war, my career fizzled and i retired to my country where i work at an unrewarding desk job at a consulting company. anyway, just to let you know, that i greatly enjoy defense/strategic matters and especially your discussions with FS. however, just to tell you that i am not qualified to make a final judgment on some of the matters you are discussing. i'm sitting back and enjoying the show though :)
 
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ret13f    RE:ret13f: answer   5/9/2005 10:05:28 PM
BW: So , what do we do now ? try another way, this one is a no-go. GOG: I understand that. But using these countries as a base to launch an assault involves those countries, using a countries transportation network involves those countries. If another power used Mexico or Canada to build up forces and stage to launch an attack on the USA, those countries are as guilty as the invading force. BTW, how many mine-hunter/sweepers does France have?
 
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gixxxerking    GoG, another area of concern   5/9/2005 10:06:22 PM
FS and Bluewings suggested that France could just violate Libya without fear of retaliation. Well if they did then Libya could intercept and destroy French aircraft on their way to support the amphibious landing. Particularly the KC-135s which to support the FAF which is supporting the landing would have to be just north of Libyan airspace! And the best part is the Libyans dont even have to shoot! And intercept timed to catch a FAF CAS mission just as it meets the Tanker would disrupt the refueling, cause the CAS aircraft to have to RTB or possibly run out of fuel. The tanker would have to depart the area for safety. And the Tanker itself would need escort which would require more tankers to support the escorts! If preparations are not taken to protect the tanker there is a good chance that it could be lost to an interceptor(MIG-25/AA-6)! And France cannot afford to lose even one of there unglamorous but precious planes. But Libya would not have to even shoot. Just intercept cold war style to disrupt operations. Its over international waters and shooting down a Libyan plane would have dire consequences!
 
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gixxxerking    FYI Recent news on Libya/Egypt improving relations   5/9/2005 10:11:18 PM
What next, basing rights...lol! link
 
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Godofgamblers    ret13f, libyan airspace... convoy from chad   5/9/2005 10:20:20 PM
the mexico/canada analogy is not accurate; FS argues that forces could move thru libyan territory with impunity. i have spent 2 months in that region of the world and it is true that the desert area is poorly guarded and virtually uninhabited. it is also true that france has a military presence in chad and knows the territory intimately. however... i agree that there are still some misgivings... it wouldn't take long for libya to find out. libya could move forces or challenge the move. it would be risky.
 
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