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Subject: How rank France in world power?
french stratege    4/23/2005 9:33:41 PM
o be a world power means to master a number of power tools and capacities: Economic power: France have fourth largest economy in world, even UK GNP seems on a par.But in fact France has a slightly bigger GDP in Puchasing Power Parity, a stronguer industry as its share in GNP is bigger, and especially in military usable industry (automotive, steel, microelectronic ...). Its trade balnce is positive unless US and UK.We benefit of Euro in sense that in a crisis, Euro would not go down like pound.Our financial market is less sensitive to crisis than UK. Then our saving, gold and currencies reserves are higher. France has 43 companies in the WORLD FORTUNE 500 ranking, one more than Germany and much more than UK or Italy.For example UK industry is stronguer than France in prescription drug but you can not use that for war. War potential: US: 100; Japan: 55, Germany ,40, France 25, UK 20. Diplomatic influence: should I said that French diplomatic network is world class and second to US only (with better skills).That our foreign aid is higher than UK or US in GNP %? That we have VETO right in UNO? That our cultural influence is world second after US? Thank to our industry we can substitute to US or Russia to deliver to a friend the whole set of weapons INDEPENDANTLY (from airfighters to subs via tank or C4ISR) and can shift power balance in any area.WE ARE THE SECOND WESTERN INDEPENDANT SUPPLIER AFTER US FOR CAPACITIES. We are the only Euro nation to have the full INDEPENDANT world reco network which is second to USA. RECO satellites, Telecom satellites (bandwith second to US), ELINT satellites, DSP satellites (in 2008), METEO satellites, spy ships, 30 ELINT ground station in word with 2 dedicated to spy US satelites, SPACE SURVEILLANCE RADAR. An unkown assets is that we are the only nation with US which can produce any currencies in world (to make false money in perfect imitation - we are the best in Europe for money technology) Sensitivity to energy imports: Our oil company is fourth in world and we have ROBUST assets in non middle east areas like Gabon, Angola etc...We produce our oil industry heavy equipment and our industry is world second of US in this field. Our nuclear energy production is world second in world and give us independance on electricity.Our influence in Africa secure minerals imports. Sensitivity to embargo: France has world class semiconductors facilities and hold the more advanced Europe wafer fab (joint venture between Motorola, SGS Thomson and Philips). Our auto maker build 7,5 million car /year, we have Airbus main designed office in France and so on...Our industry is pretty well balanced and produce almost everything at world class. Then we are the only Euro nation with a launch pad and Euro leader in Space.So we do not depend on US or other nation. We produce the second set of weapons after US and we do not depend of any supplier. Military technology: we are mastering everything form nukes to C4ISR with a technological level recognised by US as world second (while UK is close after).Of course neither Japan, Germany or China enjoy such an advantage. Nukes: our nuclear force are world THIRD and we produce precise counterforce weapons INDEPENDANTLY.Good second strike ability.400 warheads vs 200 for UK.(and we have stored weapons we can reactivate).3 SSBN can strike anywhere in the world. Military skills: our war academy is renown with US and UK.Israelis send some generals to perfectionate. Should I remember that Saudia Arabia asked French to crush rebellion in Mecka and not to US or UK?Saudis special forces and military stalled two weeks before asking France help.We did it in two days with 70 commandos leading Saudi commando (and using combat nerve gaz killing 2000 rebels). Mitary capacities. Second world force projection from 2007 to 2012 as a single Cdg with 3E2C and 40 Rafales, protected by 19 frigates with top ASW, 6 SSN and 3 Horizon with ASTER 30 outperform anything UK have: Indeed UK has 2 ACTIVE small carriers (with limited self protection and 60 harriers), they will not have any BVR fighters with FA2 retirement, and not antiship capacity since Harrier GR7/9 have NO RADAR!! UK air force has an handfull of non operational EF supported by 63 old Tornado ADV.No medium range airdefense for their troops. They have more SSN (soon reduced to 8 only) and military transport but we rely on civilian military prepared transports from french companies and our overseas bases to accumulate locally . ONLY US, UK, Russia and Japan has a sub force strong enough to put in danger our fleet. In fact we can crush any OPFOR airforce of 100 SU27/Mig29 (plus old MIGS or SU) without AWAC, ONLY relying on Cdg (even I agree a second would be better and needed). Most of nation do not have ENOUGH YAKHONT equivalent missiles to crush our naval force until our second carrier is operational. UK is unable to do that and in 2010 only 4 T45 will have entered service
 
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french stratege    Tx   5/7/2005 9:06:38 PM
Tx 1600 km is 3 to 4 days so you are in my estimate.The transit phase will use more but helos and C160 fix that.We will establish intermediate depots.
 
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french stratege    Ex 98C unloading   5/7/2005 9:11:15 PM
Unloading: Egypt air force is 80% killed for F16/M2000/F4. Cdg 100 miles away with main transport group. First waves: Airmobile: 80 transport helos, 80 attack (hot 2) 3 marines regiments Airborne: 4 regiments Then Beach: 1 LPH, 5 LSL, 4 LPD, 20 ro-ro ferries with Mistral for air protection. 80 Leclerc, 8 rolands tank SAM, 18 engineer vehicules (mine sweeper, EBG). 2 marines regiments and 8 motorized regiments. Support: 160 CAS sorties (80 from Cdg) plus Rafales CAP for airdefense plus 2 Horizon and 5 Lafayettes and 9 Avisos providing 100 mm artillery (80 13,6 kg shell/minute/gun so 15 tons shells per minute) .Plus 120* 120 mm rifled mortars airlift. 100 combat helos with AT missiles. All our IFV/VAB/VBL float and are directly unloaded form transports ramps (usual practice). VBL is like an armored hummer but amphibious (4 tons). 1200 IFV/ITV(VAB) and 600 VBL unloaded in first hours.50 VAB HOT antitank with thermal cameras. (30 ships stay in Cdg group for follow-on) End of day: Aster30 batteries, 24 Rolands NG, manpads (200), 40 more leclerc, 48 AUF2/1, 16 MRLS. 1056 infantery squads.Each AUF1 can deliver 10/8 bonus shell per minutes (2 smart IR guided top attack antitank bomblet).So up to 480 bonus shell and 960 bomblets/minutes coordinated by Orchidées helos. Or Ogre shells with 32 bomblets. Goals are: -to secure an harbor (Al sallum, Marsa Mathru, Port Said??) or to unload on beach using mexefloats, LSL and cranes. -To establish beach head and prepare for 3 armored/mechanized Egyptian division counter attack BUT WITHOUT AIRSUPPORT as Egyptian air force is almost down. Indeed it remains at this point 680 heavy armored vehicules (AUF1/2, Leclerc, enginners) which don't float and 800 heavy truck which can not be airlifted by helos from ships. These have to be unloaded in next days. PS:These 50 ships are well in what is on our civilian register fleet maintained by French navy for military additional sealift in war time using war transport law.
 
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TXAggie93    RE:FS   5/7/2005 9:20:58 PM
As someone thats done these long convoys on hard ball in peace time in a MSB with the 1st Cav Div. I think your tonnage numbers are border line at best if not low. You could not have break downs, mines or any river crossing that would slow you down. How long would this force be supplied from Chad?
 
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gf0012-aust    logistics   5/7/2005 9:42:52 PM
not wanting to disrupt the optimism too much, but have a look at the logistics required to carry spare batteries, different sets of tyres, consumable mechanical items such as spark plugs, diesel injectors (multiple types of as well), water and MRE issues. the prep to cart and carry these items in a desert deployment is huge and certainly a non-trivial exercise. Even the East Timor deployment showed how much the arse end of war needed to be in place before you even got to send the bullets. if egypt was to be a "sieze and hold" exercise to multiple hubs - then logistics is even more critical than some mechanised rush to the egyptian centre.
 
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Jodhpur    RE:Ex 98C unloading   5/7/2005 10:10:55 PM
FrenchStratege/ Bluewings, Great thread. However, assuming your three month build-up in Chad you could see several variables go against you: 1)Possibility of Turkey getting drawn in to the fray; it may withdraw from Nato in protest. Worse-case scenario it may aid the Egyptians militarily with reconnaissance and EW systems based on Turkish platforms. This forewarns of any initial landing force with ?100 Leclerc on unprepared beach and 10 000 men? and tear your beachhead to shreds. 2)The oil weapon: gulf nations cut-back production. This coupled with higher insurance costs for sea freight and transportation costs associated with bypassing the canal (for French-destined freight). Plus, if Turkey weighs in it could jeopardise the Azeri-Turkey pipeline that the U.S favours. 3)The obvious: Egypt interdicts French & perhaps EU commercial freight going through the Suez canal. Perhaps closes the canal altogether to build-up pressure for outside intervention (i.e U.S). Assuming of course that the U.S is not with Egypt from Day 1. Consider what all this is going to cost you economically, diplomatically (especially in terms of your negotiating position in the EU). It?s definitely going to be most ?exigeant?. So while your doing your Senegal/Djibouti-Chad build-up, events may overtake you and pull the rug from under your feet. Plus the terrain and extreme climatic factors such as intense ?ghijbli? sandstorms are going to wreak havoc on your supply elements and air wings. Remember the U.S experience in Desert 1 in Iran? Do you really plan to service/maintenance all your combat aircraft in Chad or hop-scotch them into Senegal/Djibouti?
 
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gixxxerking    RE:Ex 98C unloading -- What you are forgetting   5/8/2005 3:40:59 AM
Egypt air force is 80% killed for F16/M2000/F4. Cdg 100 miles away with main transport group. ---If you have killed 80% of the EAF. What casualties did you suffer? First waves: Airmobile: 80 transport helos, 80 attack (hot 2) 3 marines regiments Airborne: 4 regiments ---Hidden I-Hawk, SA-6 and Patriot. Not to mention every farmer with a rifle and Jet fighters. Then Beach: 1 LPH, 5 LSL, 4 LPD, 20 ro-ro ferries with Mistral for air protection. 80 Leclerc, 8 rolands tank SAM, 18 engineer vehicules (mine sweeper, EBG). 2 marines regiments and 8 motorized regiments. ---80 Leclerc? vs several hundred M1A1s! Remember Desert Storm was many many times more powerful operation that your proposal. And it only destroyed 50% of the Iraqi Armor. Maybe less. That means if the Egyptians are able to estimate your landing site then you will have hundreds of M1s bearing down on you. Not to mention artillery, Helo and EAF CAS. Support: 160 CAS sorties (80 from Cdg) plus Rafales CAP for airdefense plus 2 Horizon and 5 Lafayettes and 9 Avisos providing 100 mm artillery (80 13,6 kg shell/minute/gun so 15 tons shells per minute) .Plus 120* 120 mm rifled mortars airlift. ---A force like this would mean you lost almost no ships to EN or EAF. A bit ambitious dont you think. And 160 CAS sorties? Thats pretty weak. You would need AT LEAST 500 to 1000 sorties dedicated to the landing alone. And if any of these aircraft are comming from Corsica what the hell kind of CAS could it be with flight times like that. You landing will be more bloody than D-Day!
 
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gixxxerking    One in a billion   5/8/2005 5:03:28 AM
Synonymous with that phrase is Frances chance of successfuly invading Egypt...lol! But I digress. The point of this post is to say that while this French attack on Egypt would fail. One billion dollars well spent by the Egyptians in the internatinal arms market would make and attack on Egypt COMPLETELY IMPOSSIBLE. You are not a superpower if a mere billion can keep you away. Shopping list below: 2x Moray SSK 200x AMRAAM B or C 100x Harpoon Block II 24x Club-S missile
 
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french stratege    REGxxx:One in a billion   5/8/2005 12:01:16 PM
You can not buy these weapons on international market freely at last moment especially if Egypt has done bad things with the French. Tou build 2 Moray class and to do trial and training would need 3 years. And it would change the outcome even with 132 harpoons.Then France can easily spend 100 billion $ to get the edge! You lost ground Gxxx and your last post asking for more weapons including nuclear for Egypt has shown that.Now you doubt. I will answer to last questions then it will be time to move on Iran and Saudi Arabia invasions issues.
 
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french stratege    I simply don't see how we can loose at the end!   5/8/2005 12:08:54 PM
If we add 3 months of preparation and more spending we could easily buy 30 A330/310 on occasion market (or take those of air France) and convert them in tankers with EADS kit in Toulouse.Or buy IL 76 and AN124 to Russians and many LST/LSL to Russian or Chinese. Germany would sell us easily 200 Leopard 2 and some ammunitions. Our industry would have 9 months to produce and deliver 3 years of today peace time production. So whatever time we need, we win at the end.And in fact in any scenario less than one year.Egypt is simply a thirld world nation.
 
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gixxxerking    RE:REGxxx:One in a billion   5/8/2005 1:43:52 PM
No FS their is no doubt. The Moray is a planned purchase and there will be 2 of the type in service by 2008 if the deal doesnt fall through. OOOPS! And the Harpoons are also at the current procurement rate. The only thing I added was the AMRAAM which by 2009 Egypt will likey have access to. So you jumped the gun FS. By the way, I have clearly won the debate as you can read for yourself. The only person who thinks you can win this is you. Also you fail to mention what you would do for contingeancies and you continue to script this folly with maximum levels of FN/FAF as if you didnt lose a single ship or aircraft. Only you believe this would go down in such a way. Which is fine as it is quite entertaining. But far from reality as has been shown. Egypt is quite safe from any French invasion. Since you are answering questions try this one. Who do you think won this arguement...lol? Now you are dreaming up a Saudi and Iran scenario? Absolutely hilarious to even think you could invade those nations. Dassault must be building a Star Destroyer you havent told us about.
 
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