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Subject: How rank France in world power?
french stratege    4/23/2005 9:33:41 PM
o be a world power means to master a number of power tools and capacities: Economic power: France have fourth largest economy in world, even UK GNP seems on a par.But in fact France has a slightly bigger GDP in Puchasing Power Parity, a stronguer industry as its share in GNP is bigger, and especially in military usable industry (automotive, steel, microelectronic ...). Its trade balnce is positive unless US and UK.We benefit of Euro in sense that in a crisis, Euro would not go down like pound.Our financial market is less sensitive to crisis than UK. Then our saving, gold and currencies reserves are higher. France has 43 companies in the WORLD FORTUNE 500 ranking, one more than Germany and much more than UK or Italy.For example UK industry is stronguer than France in prescription drug but you can not use that for war. War potential: US: 100; Japan: 55, Germany ,40, France 25, UK 20. Diplomatic influence: should I said that French diplomatic network is world class and second to US only (with better skills).That our foreign aid is higher than UK or US in GNP %? That we have VETO right in UNO? That our cultural influence is world second after US? Thank to our industry we can substitute to US or Russia to deliver to a friend the whole set of weapons INDEPENDANTLY (from airfighters to subs via tank or C4ISR) and can shift power balance in any area.WE ARE THE SECOND WESTERN INDEPENDANT SUPPLIER AFTER US FOR CAPACITIES. We are the only Euro nation to have the full INDEPENDANT world reco network which is second to USA. RECO satellites, Telecom satellites (bandwith second to US), ELINT satellites, DSP satellites (in 2008), METEO satellites, spy ships, 30 ELINT ground station in word with 2 dedicated to spy US satelites, SPACE SURVEILLANCE RADAR. An unkown assets is that we are the only nation with US which can produce any currencies in world (to make false money in perfect imitation - we are the best in Europe for money technology) Sensitivity to energy imports: Our oil company is fourth in world and we have ROBUST assets in non middle east areas like Gabon, Angola etc...We produce our oil industry heavy equipment and our industry is world second of US in this field. Our nuclear energy production is world second in world and give us independance on electricity.Our influence in Africa secure minerals imports. Sensitivity to embargo: France has world class semiconductors facilities and hold the more advanced Europe wafer fab (joint venture between Motorola, SGS Thomson and Philips). Our auto maker build 7,5 million car /year, we have Airbus main designed office in France and so on...Our industry is pretty well balanced and produce almost everything at world class. Then we are the only Euro nation with a launch pad and Euro leader in Space.So we do not depend on US or other nation. We produce the second set of weapons after US and we do not depend of any supplier. Military technology: we are mastering everything form nukes to C4ISR with a technological level recognised by US as world second (while UK is close after).Of course neither Japan, Germany or China enjoy such an advantage. Nukes: our nuclear force are world THIRD and we produce precise counterforce weapons INDEPENDANTLY.Good second strike ability.400 warheads vs 200 for UK.(and we have stored weapons we can reactivate).3 SSBN can strike anywhere in the world. Military skills: our war academy is renown with US and UK.Israelis send some generals to perfectionate. Should I remember that Saudia Arabia asked French to crush rebellion in Mecka and not to US or UK?Saudis special forces and military stalled two weeks before asking France help.We did it in two days with 70 commandos leading Saudi commando (and using combat nerve gaz killing 2000 rebels). Mitary capacities. Second world force projection from 2007 to 2012 as a single Cdg with 3E2C and 40 Rafales, protected by 19 frigates with top ASW, 6 SSN and 3 Horizon with ASTER 30 outperform anything UK have: Indeed UK has 2 ACTIVE small carriers (with limited self protection and 60 harriers), they will not have any BVR fighters with FA2 retirement, and not antiship capacity since Harrier GR7/9 have NO RADAR!! UK air force has an handfull of non operational EF supported by 63 old Tornado ADV.No medium range airdefense for their troops. They have more SSN (soon reduced to 8 only) and military transport but we rely on civilian military prepared transports from french companies and our overseas bases to accumulate locally . ONLY US, UK, Russia and Japan has a sub force strong enough to put in danger our fleet. In fact we can crush any OPFOR airforce of 100 SU27/Mig29 (plus old MIGS or SU) without AWAC, ONLY relying on Cdg (even I agree a second would be better and needed). Most of nation do not have ENOUGH YAKHONT equivalent missiles to crush our naval force until our second carrier is operational. UK is unable to do that and in 2010 only 4 T45 will have entered service
 
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french stratege    RE:too close for comfort   5/6/2005 11:19:50 AM
A lot of mistakes on CdG air defense: -you count only asters which is biased : crotale and mistral are short range missiles to intecept subsonic sea skimmers. -E2C warning give us enough time to put all our Rafale in air then coordination and battle awareness to destroy with superior tactics the incoming raid. -saying that AIM-7 sparrow have better range than mica is false.See my new post where I give a new official value of 80 km for max mica range taken on internet in fighter thread.More over a single Rafale can guide 4 mica at same time while F16 would guide only 1 sparrow. - maybe Egyptian have modernize their Romeo subs but they are still 40 years backward on silence issues and are pretty noisy. And so on ... On logistic issues: To bring in Chad our forces is not an issue by road, railroad and air from Dakar. To sustain them is not so difficult knowing that our motorized forces have 600 miles autonomy on internal tanks (see VAB or AMX10 RC).Light armour (except Leclerc bataillon) use less gaz and are more mobile than heavy armor. - a mecanized division use 8/600 t per day in offensive.A motorized like this one about half.We have almost two divisions so about 800 tons per day max.Airlift from supply depot in Chad are enought to sustain it ALONE! - even we don't use Chad for ground offensive, after 3 months Egyptian would have no mobility neither air force.So we can choose the weakness point of med coast, as they can not reinforce everywhere before landing then landing area after assault. - it is no question to take entire contry but only vital parts.Delta most populated zones and cairo would be avoided.If they don't surrender they would starve only.So 15000 men are enought. To take an harbour or a zone where we can unload Leclerc and AUF1 (most heavy stuff) form ro-ro with Mexefloats after securizing area would not be so difficult as CdG can do 120 sorties per day (adding with FAF support) and Tiger helos would be based on our 3 LPH.Ship 100 mm artillerie would provided also support (20 guns at least each with 90 round/minute firing rate). Initial landing force is enought to beach 100 Leclerc on unprepared beach and 10 000 men (breakdown: 20 per LPH/LPD so 80, and 20 from small LSL).Then add 5000 paratroopers.Of course at this point no air threat still exist and 20 rafale are enought to provide air cover with E3/E2 with Horizon and other ships. Then if we have Chad force this would be greatly help by taking Egyptian forces in the back.
 
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Bluewings    RE:too close for comfort   5/6/2005 11:22:26 AM
I can see 2 problems in your plan Gixxx , first how do you know EXACTLY where the Fleet is (?) and you included 2 Horizon Fregates for ASTER launch when in fact the Lafayette Class ~at least 2 of them :Aconit (F713) and Guepratte (F 714)~ have been equipped with ASTER 15 prior to sail (hehe surprise) . So , that 's 4 Fregates equipped with ASTER + the Battery onboard CdG Herself . That 's more Anti-missile Missiles that we need to give an excellent protective screen . Also , you will be detected by the AWACS as soon as you take off . We will scramble 8 more Rafales form CdG who will have to cover 150nm to meet you at your launching distance . They will be there before you as you need to fly at least 250nm from your airbases to be in range for anti-ship launch . We now have 14 Rafales ~112 MICAs~ and 8 M2000-5s ~32 MICAs~ in the air to intercept your strike mission . What are the odds of the battle ? In the mean time , FAF will launch an Air interdiction mission from Chad ~700nm from CdG and less than 500nm from your launching Air Bases ~with 16 M2000-5s + 2 KC-135s for refuelling on the way back~ to cut you on your way back to base with whatever left of your stiking Force . That 's another 64 MICAs . They are going to catch you on your way back when you are close to "Bingo-Fuel" . The trap has been sprung ... But it doesn 't stop there , Strike missions are launched too from Chad and Djibouti with the purpose to hit your departure Air Bases . I tell you what with and how in my next post . More or less , We wanted Egypt to make such a move , to lower Her guard by coming at us . Becomes interesting isnt 'it ? ... Cheers .
 
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Bluewings    RE:too close for comfort   5/6/2005 11:26:37 AM
it should read "striking" and not "stiking" (sorry) Cheers .
 
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french stratege    RE:too close for comfort   5/6/2005 11:45:54 AM
Bluewing : You forgot also the first Frems and the third Horizon already completed. Add 64 aster plus of course Crotale and mistral.So 6 frigates plus CdG with aster15/30.A good tactic used by UK in Falkland is to get ro-ro and other supply ships close to carrier to attract missiles on cheap targets.
 
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french stratege    Where to land?   5/6/2005 11:55:53 AM
What landing site: east Al Sallum, Marsa Matruh, or West (port Said like in 56, Al Arish) , or even south like Ras Banas if we turn around Africa which is the most simple propably to take as unsuitable for armor massive counter attack and far away from Egypt logistic base concentrated in Delta and Canal area. For med landing I favor East : Al Sallum, Marsa Matruh.Al Sallum is closer to france and Chad support.Quatarah depression make blocking reinforcement or Egypt counter attack easy to block from air.Egypt can not build an "atlantic wall" with enought mobile division in reserve after being attrited from Lybian border to Israel one.
 
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gixxxerking    RE:Where to land?   5/6/2005 12:42:02 PM
You can land obviously. And no you will not detect the launch from 250 miles by AWACS bluewings. At altitude you MAX detection range is 250 plus or minus. Maybe if you were at 30000 ft you could push it to 270 mi. So unless you were flying well east of Crete you will not see the strike until the last few moments before they launch. This strike will hurt you badly anyway you cut it. I asked SPECIFICALLY for your defence and you failed to give detail. Also there is only one direction you are coming from. This attack is trivia with the numbers presented. Still not convinced. Then add 48 more Mig-21 to the Fighter sweep. Also add a 4 FFG SAG with Harpoon moving to engage the French Navy for maximum effort. And I could add more fighters since I am using less than half of Egypt tactical air. You cannot hold off these numbers. It would be much easier for you to admit that your navy is too small to fight an opponent of this size and sophistication. And to debate and amphibious landing with you is pointless as you do not have the power to even plan for it. Only the US could do an opposed landing and that would require several CVN and hundreds of aircraft to pull it off. How the hell can you do it with a light carrier and land based aircraft 1000+ miles away? This arguement has been fought to a stand still in the Med. Just as it would in real life. I think the end result would be the following: Egyptian Navy virtually destroyed. French Navy badly mauled and combat ineffective. French Airforce moderate losses. Egypt Airforce moderate losses. France unable to sustain offensive combat operations after 30 days.
 
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Ehran    RE:my decision: france could not win even if...gixxxerking    5/6/2005 1:23:21 PM
i saw one time that a tank division in combat uses up 15000 tons of supplies a day. in transit it's not going to be all that much less i would think. travelling through chad for instance probably is going to call for a lot of water tanking.
 
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gixxxerking    RE:my decision: france could not win even if...gixxxerking    5/6/2005 1:54:03 PM
In peace time the logistics requirement is massive. In combat its unbelievable. All those paper calculations are laughable. Just for a US Cavalry Squadron you need 13 2500 Gal HEMMIT Fuelers which have to be refueled several times a day if you are doing a road march. And you need division level assets to support that! Thats over 100 tons of fuel right there. Then theres Ammo and food. I have done this many many times in real life. This mission only exist in the immaginations of some French who wish to be a superpower. But the French Army has a long way to go to achieve this capability as far away as Egypt. Just to assemble the force to do the invasion of Egypt would take a year! I could not imagine 3 months being enough time. Remember Egypt ia many times more powerful than Iraq and the Invasion doesnt have a direct land route without initiating 2 to 3 other simulataneous invasions! Lybia, Sudan and Eritria in addition to Egypt hundreds of miles away! This means that Amhib Landing is crucial and France cannot do it. Sea Lift alone would not allow France to move more than a few hundred vehicles and most could not be heavy armor which in the face of the Abrams is a must.
 
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Herc the Merc    French Diplomacy at its finest.....   5/6/2005 3:18:58 PM
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Herc the Merc    RE:French Diplomacy at its finest.....   5/6/2005 3:20:15 PM
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