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Subject: How rank France in world power?
french stratege    4/23/2005 9:33:41 PM
o be a world power means to master a number of power tools and capacities: Economic power: France have fourth largest economy in world, even UK GNP seems on a par.But in fact France has a slightly bigger GDP in Puchasing Power Parity, a stronguer industry as its share in GNP is bigger, and especially in military usable industry (automotive, steel, microelectronic ...). Its trade balnce is positive unless US and UK.We benefit of Euro in sense that in a crisis, Euro would not go down like pound.Our financial market is less sensitive to crisis than UK. Then our saving, gold and currencies reserves are higher. France has 43 companies in the WORLD FORTUNE 500 ranking, one more than Germany and much more than UK or Italy.For example UK industry is stronguer than France in prescription drug but you can not use that for war. War potential: US: 100; Japan: 55, Germany ,40, France 25, UK 20. Diplomatic influence: should I said that French diplomatic network is world class and second to US only (with better skills).That our foreign aid is higher than UK or US in GNP %? That we have VETO right in UNO? That our cultural influence is world second after US? Thank to our industry we can substitute to US or Russia to deliver to a friend the whole set of weapons INDEPENDANTLY (from airfighters to subs via tank or C4ISR) and can shift power balance in any area.WE ARE THE SECOND WESTERN INDEPENDANT SUPPLIER AFTER US FOR CAPACITIES. We are the only Euro nation to have the full INDEPENDANT world reco network which is second to USA. RECO satellites, Telecom satellites (bandwith second to US), ELINT satellites, DSP satellites (in 2008), METEO satellites, spy ships, 30 ELINT ground station in word with 2 dedicated to spy US satelites, SPACE SURVEILLANCE RADAR. An unkown assets is that we are the only nation with US which can produce any currencies in world (to make false money in perfect imitation - we are the best in Europe for money technology) Sensitivity to energy imports: Our oil company is fourth in world and we have ROBUST assets in non middle east areas like Gabon, Angola etc...We produce our oil industry heavy equipment and our industry is world second of US in this field. Our nuclear energy production is world second in world and give us independance on electricity.Our influence in Africa secure minerals imports. Sensitivity to embargo: France has world class semiconductors facilities and hold the more advanced Europe wafer fab (joint venture between Motorola, SGS Thomson and Philips). Our auto maker build 7,5 million car /year, we have Airbus main designed office in France and so on...Our industry is pretty well balanced and produce almost everything at world class. Then we are the only Euro nation with a launch pad and Euro leader in Space.So we do not depend on US or other nation. We produce the second set of weapons after US and we do not depend of any supplier. Military technology: we are mastering everything form nukes to C4ISR with a technological level recognised by US as world second (while UK is close after).Of course neither Japan, Germany or China enjoy such an advantage. Nukes: our nuclear force are world THIRD and we produce precise counterforce weapons INDEPENDANTLY.Good second strike ability.400 warheads vs 200 for UK.(and we have stored weapons we can reactivate).3 SSBN can strike anywhere in the world. Military skills: our war academy is renown with US and UK.Israelis send some generals to perfectionate. Should I remember that Saudia Arabia asked French to crush rebellion in Mecka and not to US or UK?Saudis special forces and military stalled two weeks before asking France help.We did it in two days with 70 commandos leading Saudi commando (and using combat nerve gaz killing 2000 rebels). Mitary capacities. Second world force projection from 2007 to 2012 as a single Cdg with 3E2C and 40 Rafales, protected by 19 frigates with top ASW, 6 SSN and 3 Horizon with ASTER 30 outperform anything UK have: Indeed UK has 2 ACTIVE small carriers (with limited self protection and 60 harriers), they will not have any BVR fighters with FA2 retirement, and not antiship capacity since Harrier GR7/9 have NO RADAR!! UK air force has an handfull of non operational EF supported by 63 old Tornado ADV.No medium range airdefense for their troops. They have more SSN (soon reduced to 8 only) and military transport but we rely on civilian military prepared transports from french companies and our overseas bases to accumulate locally . ONLY US, UK, Russia and Japan has a sub force strong enough to put in danger our fleet. In fact we can crush any OPFOR airforce of 100 SU27/Mig29 (plus old MIGS or SU) without AWAC, ONLY relying on Cdg (even I agree a second would be better and needed). Most of nation do not have ENOUGH YAKHONT equivalent missiles to crush our naval force until our second carrier is operational. UK is unable to do that and in 2010 only 4 T45 will have entered service
 
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Bluewings    RE:my decision: france could not win even if...   5/5/2005 10:07:19 PM
Don 't go away so fast Gixxx , we need you ! lol FS and I have the mean to prove that France CAN invade and occupy Alexandria , Cairo and the Nil River . Egypt WILL fall . I have no doubts whatsoever . Cheers .
 
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Bluewings    RE:my decision: france could not win even if...   5/5/2005 10:08:22 PM
I 'm there . waiting :-) ... Cheers .
 
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TXAggie93    RE:my decision: france could not win even if...gixxxerking    5/5/2005 10:20:45 PM
gixxxerking I agree that France could not invade Egypt and win. I would say that there is a good chance that they lose at least 2 ships. There is no way they have the logistic capabilities to support a ground attack. If they attack from Chad how do they get their supplies to Chad? It takes a lot of ammo, fuel, food and water to keep a Division rolling forward and then you have worry about parts because stuff breaks down and in the desert it breaks down more. I think the best France can do is a naval blockade and punitive raids. I think France vs. Italy or France vs. Spain is the only countries of the same size of Egypt that France has a chance of winning against, mainly because they would have much better logistic. France needs a bigger military to pull off defeating Egypt.
 
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gixxxerking    RE:my decision: france could not win even if...gixxxerking    5/5/2005 10:27:20 PM
I agree with you. It is simple logistics. Having run many logistically nightmarish missions this one is a disaster without a serious increase in the logistical capability. I mean to think 14 KC-135 are enough is beyond the realm of reality. And I havent even began to touch the much bigger problem for the ground forces. Imagine being the French commander on the ground with only 200 combat sorties to support your landing during the critical moments! Wow.
 
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Godofgamblers    RE:red herrings in the red sea   5/5/2005 10:57:12 PM
what about egypt's logistics, gix? imagine being hit by a three-pronged attack: decoy taskforce in the red sea, land force via chad and the main landing at alexandria... you assume the egyptians would know where to concentrate their forces. while the marouins were landing, the egyptians would be scrambling planes to the red sea.... in vain...
 
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gixxxerking    RE:red herrings in the red sea --GoG   5/5/2005 11:16:34 PM
There will be no French coming from Chad despite the claims of Bravado. Would be the Same as the U.S. Invading Iraq from Turkey without Turkish consent. And there will be no decoy task force. Whereever the CdG is, is where the landing will come from.
 
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gixxxerking    I'm there waiting?   5/5/2005 11:59:16 PM
Thats your response? Well then nothing has changed. You lose. link vs link no contest.
 
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Bluewings    RE:Bluewings --Challenge to you.   5/6/2005 12:18:41 AM
I explained how we would move the Fleet safely ~not very hard task btw~ to around 150-200nm West of Crete . This is assuming that the small Egyptian Navy stay at bay or close to theirs coasts but if they want to met us at Sea , fine . They will be annihilated . The choice is up to you . So , the FN is now at 300nm from the closest Egyptian targets and at 500nm from Alexandria . Using your maths + my repositioning of the CdG BG , FAF will support in CAP over the fleet with : - rotation of 8 M2000-5s 24/24 - 5 KC-135s in rotation for refueling purposes . + of course Rafales from CdG on CAP too (6 in the Air at all time). All under AWACS coverage . My point to place CdG BG where it is has to do with three facts : 1) the Fleet is actually covered by our land based OTH Radar Nostradamus . 2) the Fleet is at 700nm From Corsica 3) the Fleet is at 700nm from FAF Base in Chad Air Intels at this point are maximal . The point No.3 is quite important as FAF in Chad COULD provide CAPs over the Fleet as well IF needed without crossing Egyptian Airspace . The first Lybian who disagree can go to hell and never come back . So , the Fleet is well defended and awareness is excellent . ****************************************** So , now it is your turn . How are you going to attack the FN from Egyptian Air Bases situated in between 350 and 600nm away , and what with . Draw me a clear picture please about Aircrafts/weapons , type and numbers . Cheers .
 
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Bluewings    RE:Bluewings --Challenge to you.   5/6/2005 12:38:26 AM
Gixxx , you said ~ I quote : "Harpoon, HARM and AS-5 have ranges that require the FAF and FN fighters to be AT LEAST 100 NM ahead of the CdG to have a chance to prevent weapons launch. Once weapons are launched the fight is over even if only 50% launch. Especially the HARM." I disagree here , and you DO know why Gixxx . For two reasons : 1) You place the French CAPs at your convenance . Negative . CAPs will be directed at the very moment YOU take off . You 'll have to fight your way through to reach launching distance . 2) ASTER 15 will destroy incoming missiles if some get through . So here I go again : How are you going to attack the FN from Egyptian Air Bases situated in between 350 and 600nm away , and what with . Draw me a clear picture please about Aircrafts/weapons , type and numbers . Cheers .
 
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gixxxerking    too close for comfort   5/6/2005 2:43:47 AM
Bluewings...lol, A quick look at the map will show that the CdG would be in range of about 90% of the Egyptian AF 150 NM west of Crete. More study would show that the use of Harpoon and AS-5 make reaching 150 nm of Crete no problem for a Anti-Ship strike. SO my numbers still stand. Yes you will inflict heavy losses on the missiles. But enough will make it to ensure heavy losses. Reference: link As you can see I already addressed your concerns. 180 + missiles plus aircraft is plenty to saturate 2 Horizon frigates. Especially since the missiles all out range your Aster 30. The only way to prevent missile launch is through fighters. You have 14 to 16 for this. I have 48 dedicated BVR capable escorts conducting fighter sweep for the strikers. By the time you can lauch more CdG planes or from Corsica, the missiles are on their way. NOw since you will encounter the sweep first, your fighters will have to decide whether or not to shoot MICA at the F-16s or hold for the anti-ship missiles. If you hold for the anti-ship missiles the sweep will cut your CAP to pieces. Also keep in mind that while Semi-Active Homing, the Sparrow has greater range than the MICA. On a side note the M version, which Egypt has, killed over 20 Iraqi planes in GW1! If you feel this is not enough ,48 Sparrow firing F-16, an additional squadron of F-4 or Mig-21 can also accompany the sweep. So you have overwhelming odds. And this is before you face the ASM carriers. I can achieve this success for several reasons. 1. While inferior in technology, it is not that big of a difference due to the use of western planes and weapons. 2. CdG has only 6 to 14 fighters in the air for protection vs 48 to 60 planes for sweep. Big numerical advantage. 3. You arent expecting it which is obvious by your post. 4. Almost all major Egyptian AF bases are in range to strike 150 NM West of Crete. link link 5. E-2C/IL-28/TU-16 and other aircraft can provide SA from withing Egyptian SAM umbrella. 6. The HARM missile is being used which is an exceptionally difficult missile to shoot down. Also if even one hits a ship, especially Horizon, you are blind and badly damaged. If the ARM AS-6 hits, what ever ship it hits is dead. 7. Near Crete and North African Coast, missile boats have great hidding places. 8. IIRC Egyptian SSK's can fire Harpoon by 2009. SO the attack would win on brute force alone. Again your problem is you are too far from home to adequately defend yourself much less conduct invasion. Do you see now that your position is too close? I will say you need to be near Malta to avoid saturation.
 
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