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Subject: How rank France in world power?
french stratege    4/23/2005 9:33:41 PM
o be a world power means to master a number of power tools and capacities: Economic power: France have fourth largest economy in world, even UK GNP seems on a par.But in fact France has a slightly bigger GDP in Puchasing Power Parity, a stronguer industry as its share in GNP is bigger, and especially in military usable industry (automotive, steel, microelectronic ...). Its trade balnce is positive unless US and UK.We benefit of Euro in sense that in a crisis, Euro would not go down like pound.Our financial market is less sensitive to crisis than UK. Then our saving, gold and currencies reserves are higher. France has 43 companies in the WORLD FORTUNE 500 ranking, one more than Germany and much more than UK or Italy.For example UK industry is stronguer than France in prescription drug but you can not use that for war. War potential: US: 100; Japan: 55, Germany ,40, France 25, UK 20. Diplomatic influence: should I said that French diplomatic network is world class and second to US only (with better skills).That our foreign aid is higher than UK or US in GNP %? That we have VETO right in UNO? That our cultural influence is world second after US? Thank to our industry we can substitute to US or Russia to deliver to a friend the whole set of weapons INDEPENDANTLY (from airfighters to subs via tank or C4ISR) and can shift power balance in any area.WE ARE THE SECOND WESTERN INDEPENDANT SUPPLIER AFTER US FOR CAPACITIES. We are the only Euro nation to have the full INDEPENDANT world reco network which is second to USA. RECO satellites, Telecom satellites (bandwith second to US), ELINT satellites, DSP satellites (in 2008), METEO satellites, spy ships, 30 ELINT ground station in word with 2 dedicated to spy US satelites, SPACE SURVEILLANCE RADAR. An unkown assets is that we are the only nation with US which can produce any currencies in world (to make false money in perfect imitation - we are the best in Europe for money technology) Sensitivity to energy imports: Our oil company is fourth in world and we have ROBUST assets in non middle east areas like Gabon, Angola etc...We produce our oil industry heavy equipment and our industry is world second of US in this field. Our nuclear energy production is world second in world and give us independance on electricity.Our influence in Africa secure minerals imports. Sensitivity to embargo: France has world class semiconductors facilities and hold the more advanced Europe wafer fab (joint venture between Motorola, SGS Thomson and Philips). Our auto maker build 7,5 million car /year, we have Airbus main designed office in France and so on...Our industry is pretty well balanced and produce almost everything at world class. Then we are the only Euro nation with a launch pad and Euro leader in Space.So we do not depend on US or other nation. We produce the second set of weapons after US and we do not depend of any supplier. Military technology: we are mastering everything form nukes to C4ISR with a technological level recognised by US as world second (while UK is close after).Of course neither Japan, Germany or China enjoy such an advantage. Nukes: our nuclear force are world THIRD and we produce precise counterforce weapons INDEPENDANTLY.Good second strike ability.400 warheads vs 200 for UK.(and we have stored weapons we can reactivate).3 SSBN can strike anywhere in the world. Military skills: our war academy is renown with US and UK.Israelis send some generals to perfectionate. Should I remember that Saudia Arabia asked French to crush rebellion in Mecka and not to US or UK?Saudis special forces and military stalled two weeks before asking France help.We did it in two days with 70 commandos leading Saudi commando (and using combat nerve gaz killing 2000 rebels). Mitary capacities. Second world force projection from 2007 to 2012 as a single Cdg with 3E2C and 40 Rafales, protected by 19 frigates with top ASW, 6 SSN and 3 Horizon with ASTER 30 outperform anything UK have: Indeed UK has 2 ACTIVE small carriers (with limited self protection and 60 harriers), they will not have any BVR fighters with FA2 retirement, and not antiship capacity since Harrier GR7/9 have NO RADAR!! UK air force has an handfull of non operational EF supported by 63 old Tornado ADV.No medium range airdefense for their troops. They have more SSN (soon reduced to 8 only) and military transport but we rely on civilian military prepared transports from french companies and our overseas bases to accumulate locally . ONLY US, UK, Russia and Japan has a sub force strong enough to put in danger our fleet. In fact we can crush any OPFOR airforce of 100 SU27/Mig29 (plus old MIGS or SU) without AWAC, ONLY relying on Cdg (even I agree a second would be better and needed). Most of nation do not have ENOUGH YAKHONT equivalent missiles to crush our naval force until our second carrier is operational. UK is unable to do that and in 2010 only 4 T45 will have entered service
 
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gixxxerking    RE:France the worlds Kingmaker??   5/4/2005 10:42:08 PM
Hold Egypt AFTER defeating in a successful invasion, the Egyptian military with 150000, yes. Success invading, no. My 2 cents.
 
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Bluewings    RE: FAF over the Fleet    5/4/2005 11:35:03 PM
Gixxx , I considered your maths , and they are pretty much bang-on . So , to answer your question : "Considering that, how the hell is France going to support all the other refueling mission France needs to carry out FS air war?" --> The CdG BG will NOT be South of Crete as YOU suggested , but approximatly 150nm West of it . Which places CdG at about 700nm from Corsica , allowing the FAF a much longuer loiter time ~30 mins~ over the Fleet , while cutting down the numbers of Fighters/KC-135 in use for the task . Location , location ;-) CdG will be at about 300nm from possible targets and 500nm from Alexandria , allowing both CAPs and Strikes missions , with or without buddy refuelling . Are you satisfied with that ? Cheers .
 
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gixxxerking    RE: FAF over the Fleet    5/5/2005 12:24:07 AM
Two things. 1. I DID NOT SUGGEST BEING SOUTH OF CRETE. 2. 150 NM WEST IS A MUCH BETTER IDEA BUT... ...that still puts it in range of the Anti-Ship strike. The difference is now you have 48 rotations of FAF planes still 1 to 1.5 hours out and still requiring a tanker as the round trip is over 1400 NM. FS plan leaves no room for these tanker missions as he has commited all of them to support the strike waves. 50% of these tankers have been FWD deployed to Chad and Djibouti as they are also a long way from Egyptian targets. SO the 4 to 5 remaining tankers still have to support the Corsica strike planes, the FAF BARCAP of CdG, and the AWACS/Transports and other support aircraft coming in from the Med. Now the key question for France is how to have continuous, 24 hour, tanker support with 4 to 5 tankers. Remember that the Tanker only carries 150000 lbs to 200000 lbs of fuel. Roughly 8 FAF fighters worth of gas. With KC-135 availability rates about 70% due to age, you have only 1 to 2 tankers on station to support all of this. My attackers would only be dealing with 8 additional FAF fighters over the fleet at most but more likely 2 to 4. SO 8 to 1 numerical superiority drops only to 5 or 6 to 1. Add to that the Harpoon, HARM and AS-5 have ranges that require the FAF and FN fighters to be AT LEAST 100 NM ahead of the CdG to have a chance to prevent weapons launch. Once weapons are launched the fight is over even if only 50% launch. Especially the HARM.
 
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AussieEngineer    RE: FAF over the Fleet / GoG   5/5/2005 8:01:43 AM
I'm glad someone mentioned an aggressive egyptian defence; your not all bad gixxx. Sitting around and waiting for the PGMs to start raining down would be a pretty inept defence. Which wargames was it that the retired USMC general playing Israel decided to launch a cruise mission strike on the the imaginary US invasion fleet. They calculated he sunk around 17 ships or something. GoG- I think you ment me whe you posted to AGunner. But anyway, the first gulf war had half a million troops IIRC and they didn't occupy Iraq. I think it is simply impossible for France to occupy Egypt. The number for their army being bandied round is 150,000. That is the number of troops in Iraq right now. That is only a fraction of the armed forces of all the countries there. The best I could see France bringing for an invasion would be maybe 50,000 troops, thats just a guess though, it's probably less. This would be put against the entire Egyptian army, plus all the reserves that could be called up(egypt has conscription, so they have a pretty decent man power base). I just don't see how France could try and invade Egypt.
 
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TXAggie93    Chad-FS????   5/5/2005 11:48:46 AM
So you are going to stage your ground forces from a land locked country that does not have a border with Egypt? link
 
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TXAggie93    RE:My Vote another Cinco de Mayo for france   5/5/2005 11:59:01 AM
I do not see france winning a land war against Egypt. I think the best they could do is a Naval blockade and bombing raids. Even then they could lose if they lost the CHd. On a side not it is interesting that Cinnco de Mayo is more celebrated in the US than Mexico. I was in Motterrey, for the last 2 weeks and there are no parties planned like there are in the states. link
 
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french stratege    Naval issues: you are wrong gxxx!   5/5/2005 12:45:34 PM
Your attack scenario on CdG Task force is flawed. "20 SSM from the OSA and other missile boats 48 ARM from the TU-16 24 ASM From the Tu-16 48 Harpoon Block 2 From F-16 48 HARM*** Forgot to add this Escorted by 48 F-16 THis will be followed up with (24)Mig-21 carrying conventional bombs in a second wave depending on the results of the first wave." First I said that hostilities will not be engaged before France get ready. However after Djibouti and Chad have been sufficiently enforced to have air defense (however Egypt can not reach them because they have no tanker) after 3 weeks and during negociation phase, France start to chase Egypt subs with SSN, ASW friagte and ATL G3.If they are sink Egypt would have even noticed it immediately or it would not break negociation because it would be public. I think that no remaining SSK would dare to go far form Egyptian coast after 3 months, because Egyptian would keep them for invasion. CdG in these time has no reason to be within Egypt reach. Once French will decide to launch attack CdG will move closer to Egypt (10 hours to do 300 Miles). CdG has 26/28 Rafales in board plus 3E2C and 15/18 superetendard. Egypt could only use subs to track it but we will make sure that no subs is there prior lauching attack. Until now CdG is out of reach from Egypt air force and protected (because still 700 miles to corsica) by FAF. When we will decide to lauch our 8/12 Rafale M stealthy spearhead (completed by those of FAF in Chad and Djibouti to crush E2C in flight and some vital assets before main waves) , Cdg will move closer but Rafale are reflueled in flight by SE and Cdg is out of range and detection of Egypt (unless one way random suicide attack).BTW 12 Rafales are protecting fleet with E2C. We will do decoy movements like that before real attack to be sure that it doesn't warn more Egypt that in these previous decoy moves, if Egypt has been able to detect it (unlikely as I said). CdG will be in range of Egypt only after second wave to bring more power. Even some 96 F16 still available after French first waves, it would almost entire available fleet! And probably after the two first strike even they would not be able to field that number. If they do that OSA fast boat would not even come in range with our surface shield SSN, ATLG2, E2C, Supertendard with AM39/AS30L. Tu16 are meat for Rafale (carrying 8 to 10 mica) and their missiles more easily shot down or jammed. Aster are reserved for the most CdG and key warship incoming missiles threats.Crotale and Mistral are deserve for point defense of all ships.Egyptian strike are shorter range, strategy exist to limit their efficiency on a moving fleet (alternative use of radar on different ship supportin each other, data furnished by E2, direct shhoting by air defense etc..) and moreover less or none after will be available for land war. You seems to forgot we have 800 missiles (ASTER, Crotalen Mistral ) able to intecept missiles (plus gun, decoy , jamming ..). Our fleet air defense is networked and coordinated.EW spectrum use by Egyptian is saturated. Once Cdg move close to coast its Rafale are entirely used for protection since FAF and SE are doing strikes. So 24 Rafales and 192/240 mica available.Moreover we have warning time (OTH radar and E2C/E3F). Even with 96 F16, they would not be able to launch more than 80 Harpoons+strike and probably much less and a task force of 30 ships still far away from coast. Even Egypt manage to do such a raid with remaining F16, they would be not be able to sink CdG, they would lose most of their remaining F16 to do that and so FAF would have a free way on an Egypt defense less. Conclusion: 1 Prior French first assault, Cdg is not in range, 2 During initial phase of assault (2 first waves) CdG is in range only to one way random suicide attack IF detected, 3 During late phase of air assault, Egypt is not able to mount probably a raid, and if they do that they would loose most of their remaining F16 symplifying French FAF task, while they would unlikely do strong dammage to CdG. PS: BTW I checked and it seems that Egypt has no scheduled Amraam, only Sparrows!!!!! It symplify our task!!!!
 
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french stratege    RE:Naval issues: you are wrong gxxx!typographic error corrected   5/5/2005 12:47:53 PM
SSN: If they are sink Egypt would have even noticed it immediately or it would not break negociation because it would NOT be public.
 
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gixxxerking    RE:Naval issues: you are wrong gxxx!typographic error corrected   5/5/2005 2:48:24 PM
"First I said that hostilities will not be engaged before France get ready." --FS ---WHo cares that you said that. No COMPETENT defense is just going to "allow" you to get everything ready. I cant even believe I read that! Egypt is free to act in its own interest. If you present a fat juicy target, Egypt will strike! After a 3 month build up like you propose Egypt will be expecting hostilities. So if you come storming in under the false sense of security the French Tech will protect you, then you will be hit. FS the bottom line is that you dont get to attack first UNLESS you disposition your forces in such a way that it is impossible for Egypt to pre-empt you or you attack by suprise. Your plan offers no suprise and throughout your build up makes you vulnerable. Also Egypt does not need to reach Djibouti and Chad. But if they did, TU-16/AS-5 most certainly could. Also for France to attack from Chad, you have to VIOLATE their airspace. If you can use Nuetral nations like Djibouti, Chad and Violate nuetral airspace then I can use ELINT/SIGINT data from US and also establist logistics via Israel/Egypt Border.
 
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ret13f    RE:Naval issues: you are wrong gxxx!typographic error corrected   5/5/2005 2:54:19 PM
some random questions pertinent to the scenerio: How many subs normally operate in Med? French, Italian, Israeli, Egyption, Greek, Turkish, US, Spain(?), Algerian, Brits, Russian(?), Syrian(?);anyone else? If you havn't initiated hostilities yet, how are you going to start shooting down Egyption AC, and sinking ships? suppose Egyptions tag along with other small TFs/flotillas/fleets, such as STANAVFORMED (or whatever it is called these days)? so you have a choice, either initiate before you are ready and in position or absorb the first blow.
 
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