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Subject: How rank France in world power?
french stratege    4/23/2005 9:33:41 PM
o be a world power means to master a number of power tools and capacities: Economic power: France have fourth largest economy in world, even UK GNP seems on a par.But in fact France has a slightly bigger GDP in Puchasing Power Parity, a stronguer industry as its share in GNP is bigger, and especially in military usable industry (automotive, steel, microelectronic ...). Its trade balnce is positive unless US and UK.We benefit of Euro in sense that in a crisis, Euro would not go down like pound.Our financial market is less sensitive to crisis than UK. Then our saving, gold and currencies reserves are higher. France has 43 companies in the WORLD FORTUNE 500 ranking, one more than Germany and much more than UK or Italy.For example UK industry is stronguer than France in prescription drug but you can not use that for war. War potential: US: 100; Japan: 55, Germany ,40, France 25, UK 20. Diplomatic influence: should I said that French diplomatic network is world class and second to US only (with better skills).That our foreign aid is higher than UK or US in GNP %? That we have VETO right in UNO? That our cultural influence is world second after US? Thank to our industry we can substitute to US or Russia to deliver to a friend the whole set of weapons INDEPENDANTLY (from airfighters to subs via tank or C4ISR) and can shift power balance in any area.WE ARE THE SECOND WESTERN INDEPENDANT SUPPLIER AFTER US FOR CAPACITIES. We are the only Euro nation to have the full INDEPENDANT world reco network which is second to USA. RECO satellites, Telecom satellites (bandwith second to US), ELINT satellites, DSP satellites (in 2008), METEO satellites, spy ships, 30 ELINT ground station in word with 2 dedicated to spy US satelites, SPACE SURVEILLANCE RADAR. An unkown assets is that we are the only nation with US which can produce any currencies in world (to make false money in perfect imitation - we are the best in Europe for money technology) Sensitivity to energy imports: Our oil company is fourth in world and we have ROBUST assets in non middle east areas like Gabon, Angola etc...We produce our oil industry heavy equipment and our industry is world second of US in this field. Our nuclear energy production is world second in world and give us independance on electricity.Our influence in Africa secure minerals imports. Sensitivity to embargo: France has world class semiconductors facilities and hold the more advanced Europe wafer fab (joint venture between Motorola, SGS Thomson and Philips). Our auto maker build 7,5 million car /year, we have Airbus main designed office in France and so on...Our industry is pretty well balanced and produce almost everything at world class. Then we are the only Euro nation with a launch pad and Euro leader in Space.So we do not depend on US or other nation. We produce the second set of weapons after US and we do not depend of any supplier. Military technology: we are mastering everything form nukes to C4ISR with a technological level recognised by US as world second (while UK is close after).Of course neither Japan, Germany or China enjoy such an advantage. Nukes: our nuclear force are world THIRD and we produce precise counterforce weapons INDEPENDANTLY.Good second strike ability.400 warheads vs 200 for UK.(and we have stored weapons we can reactivate).3 SSBN can strike anywhere in the world. Military skills: our war academy is renown with US and UK.Israelis send some generals to perfectionate. Should I remember that Saudia Arabia asked French to crush rebellion in Mecka and not to US or UK?Saudis special forces and military stalled two weeks before asking France help.We did it in two days with 70 commandos leading Saudi commando (and using combat nerve gaz killing 2000 rebels). Mitary capacities. Second world force projection from 2007 to 2012 as a single Cdg with 3E2C and 40 Rafales, protected by 19 frigates with top ASW, 6 SSN and 3 Horizon with ASTER 30 outperform anything UK have: Indeed UK has 2 ACTIVE small carriers (with limited self protection and 60 harriers), they will not have any BVR fighters with FA2 retirement, and not antiship capacity since Harrier GR7/9 have NO RADAR!! UK air force has an handfull of non operational EF supported by 63 old Tornado ADV.No medium range airdefense for their troops. They have more SSN (soon reduced to 8 only) and military transport but we rely on civilian military prepared transports from french companies and our overseas bases to accumulate locally . ONLY US, UK, Russia and Japan has a sub force strong enough to put in danger our fleet. In fact we can crush any OPFOR airforce of 100 SU27/Mig29 (plus old MIGS or SU) without AWAC, ONLY relying on Cdg (even I agree a second would be better and needed). Most of nation do not have ENOUGH YAKHONT equivalent missiles to crush our naval force until our second carrier is operational. UK is unable to do that and in 2010 only 4 T45 will have entered service
 
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gixxxerking    RE:My Vote --FS   5/4/2005 2:24:49 PM
I will add my comments to your addendum when I return. Until then lets take a look at all the previous data and arguements and see what happens. I will add nothing futher until I review your last comments.
 
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gixxxerking    RE:My Vote --FS   5/4/2005 6:31:24 PM
-Procurement: We can see egyptian procurement: www.tau.ac.il/jcss/balance/Egypt.pdf ---Thats a great list FS thanks! And what a superb list of kit to hold of an invasion by anybody less than the USA for the near future. - Naval: Quantity of Egypt air launched harpoon is quite limited (32). French has not only 128 to 172 aster 30/15 in 2009 but 390 crotale NG on ramp and hundred Mistral to intercept missiles.12 Rafale plus 3 E2C in air defense of Cdg (other use for attack) plus distance and warning (OTH, awac) make an attack near Creta unlikely to make significant dammage to our fleet. ---32 at the time of the document. More by the 2009. And even if they didnt purchase another unit. Thats only 16 less from my air launched missiles. Still approx 200 inbounds including aircraft. More than enough to saturate. I built in a little redundancy to ensure mission accomplishment. And I forgot to add in HARM missiles to the attack which you cannot counter. - HUMINT warning: no way that Egyptian HUMINT is able to know if some 20 Rafale are attacking Egypt (first wave sparhead) as routinely such a quantity is flying from Djibouti or Cdg (which humint for cdg- by swimming?) ---They will not know where the 20 are going. BUt they will know to alert the forces to possible activity. This is how Somalia knew the Rangers were coming. Also how Serbs knew F-117 was coming. - land attack: Some forgot that one attack is land based from Chad and already prebased there: no landing.This motorized corps can threat Nile Valley, Ras Banas or west med coast via desert to support a landing while backstabbing deployed Egyptian forces. More over helos force can come either from Chad , Djibouti or LPH Even more Egypt is well within range of our 80 tactical transports for paratroopers close to maximum load. ---Chadean bases are still a considerable distance away and HUMINT along key roads will indicate heavy mechanized movement. And by 2009 there are approx 1000 M1 Abrams to deal with Armored thrust. - men: France has enough man to control large parts of Egypt: 150 000 men at least (French active force have 137 000 active army, 66 000 air force, 45 000 navy plus 65 000 reservists and 100 0000 gendarmes plus 100000 reservist gendarmes - Gendarmes can provide 50000 men for Egypt using some reserve and part of active to control rear areas and even provide some motorized regiments) As I said in the scenario we don't try to control Cairo and Delta unless they surrender. ---150000 men is not nearly enough to subdue a hostile nation like Egypt. And when the dead and wounded are counted your 150000 will be more like 100000. - mobility: it is very difficult for Egypt to cover on ground its north coast from Lybia to Israel , southern desert, and Red Sea(assuming they have lost 60% of F16) Baren land made air superiority more efficient as it is difficult to hide and moreover French force are much mobiles thank to Helos and tactical transport and digitalized communication and C4ISR. ---Egypt has excellent C4ISR. Not as good as France but good enough to defend homeland. Egypt also has Airborne and Helo Bourne troops and can redeploy to pre surveyed LZ's under SAM and Artillery umbrella. You do not have enough sorties to significantly reduce Egyptian Armor/Artillery/SEAD, hit infrastructure, fighter sweep, BARCAP, interdict AND provide CAS. Especially over the distances. - EW spectrum: Egypt doesn't do its own ECM/ECM systems and does not receive the most secret and sophisticated systems.It is exactly the reason that Israel has its own industry and maintain TWO companies to make them compete each other to be competitive while normally Israel has still a better access to US sophisticated weapons than other US allies. France has a near total control of EW spectrum. ---No you have total control outside of Egypt. You have good recon systems. But you do not have the jammers to deny Egypt access withing their borders.
 
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french stratege    RE:My Vote --FS   5/4/2005 6:45:23 PM
32 harpoon or even 96 are not enought to saturate CdG defense considering some F16 will be lost thank to Rafale, we have 800 missles at least , air defense are networked, we have then guns, active/passive decoys, then harpoons have to discrimate CdG to oilers , support ships and frigates under heavy jamming. Chance=almost zero to sink Cdg
 
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gixxxerking    RE:My Vote --FS   5/4/2005 7:25:01 PM
"32 harpoon or even 96 are not enought to saturate CdG defense considering some F16 will be lost thank to Rafale, we have 800 missles at least , air defense are networked, we have then guns, active/passive decoys, then harpoons have to discrimate CdG to oilers , support ships and frigates under heavy jamming. Chance=almost zero to sink Cdg" --FS Well I agree that 32 are likely not enough. Which is why I included ship and submarine launched weapons, HARMs and free fall bombs. For review see below. 20 SSM from the OSA and other missile boats 48 ARM from the TU-16 24 ASM From the Tu-16 48 Harpoon Block 2 From F-16 48 HARM*** Forgot to add this Escorted by 48 F-16 THis will be followed up with (24)Mig-21 carrying conventional bombs in a second wave depending on the results of the first wave. Also the 12 Rafale you have will not all be airborne at once. 4 on CAP maybe. 2 to 4 more on alert. Followed by the rest. Your E-2C and ship based Radar should allow you sufficient early warning however to scramble. But the Rafales will arrive in waves rather than a mass of 12 Fighters. And those 12 fighters are seriously outnumbered. 8 to 1 by F-16s, all carrying AIM-9 and some AIM-7M! So you will have to decide if MICA is for ASM or for F-16. And then there are the AS-5 and Bomb carrying Mig-21. This is enough to Saturate the CdG. Harpoon IIRC has software that does discriminate as well. But the best part is your Aster VLS will be empty and some weapons will get through. If just one Missile Frigate is hit thats 50% of your Aster 30 gone! And the Harm in those numbers will get through. A single hit on the CdG would be politically unacceptable. If the missile is a Harpoon the damage will be moderate and could suspend flight ops. Several hits could cause out of control fires and loss of mobility. If an AS-5 hits the effects are even worse due to larger warhead. Only the CdG could survive more than one missile. This is a matter of numbers. Even at the unlikely 100% effectiveness you dont have enough weapons to service 200+ targets. And the Mig-21 could put a 500kg bomb into the best target at the discretion of the pilot.
 
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gixxxerking    RE:My Vote --one more thing --FS   5/4/2005 7:28:56 PM
All Egyptian air launched weapons have a range that exceeds Aster 30. And some home on the Aster 30 fire control system itself. Only the Rafale/MICA can engage prior to launch. And then there is a Fighter Sweep to deal with that.
 
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gixxxerking    Contingency Plan   5/4/2005 7:41:25 PM
FS, it is fair to say the Anti-Ship strike will have some degree of success. At this point the only question is to what extent. What will you do under the following circumstances: 1. CdG is hit and destroyed 2. CdG is hit and damaged such that flight ops are not possible 3. CdG is hit but remains mission capable 4. 1 or more Horizon Destroyed 5. Horizon ammunition status is black 6. Critical Support Ship such as Ro/Ro, oiler or troop ship destroyed 7. 12 or more Rafales lost 8. Hawkeye lost 9. CdG temporarily unable to sail due to damage # 1 is probably not going to happen. But all others are DEFINATE POSSIBILITIES considering the magnatude of the strike. How will you deal with this?
 
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Bluewings    RE: FAF over the Fleet    5/4/2005 7:58:35 PM
I thought that the FAF was providing CAP over the fleet as well ... Cheers .
 
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Asmodée    RE: FAF over the Fleet    5/4/2005 8:34:59 PM
there is not only 12 rafale is this battle and mirage 2000 can be send to support the fleet
 
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gixxxerking    RE: FAF over the Fleet    5/4/2005 10:17:13 PM
The FAF would be flying a CAP at about 1000 NM to be south of Crete. Without refueling, loiter time would be limited to 10 minutes or less. Even with external tanks. Which would also reduce weapons load. That would mean rotating aircraft out to ensure continuous coverage. Flight time to 1000 NM would be about 2 hours. So without refueling thats 1440 min/10 min=144 rotations for 24 hours continuous CAP if you are flying out of Corsica and the fleet is near Crete. Now 144 rotations would require more aircraft than you have and allow little rest for crews. To make this practicle you would have to refuel the CAP in flight. Remember you only have 14 KC-135. One of these could support 8 fighter sized planes. And you would have to rotate the tanker as well. SO at least three tankers would be necessary but much more if you want to have a serious CAP. WHy? Because at 1000 NM whether or not there is combat the CAP would have to refuel to RTB. So to put up a CAP of more than a few, 2 to 4, FAF M2000 continuously over the fleet 1000+ nm away you would need 4 to 6 dedicated tankers. Considering that, how the hell is France going to support all the other refueling mission France needs to carry out FS air war? The answer is simple. The FAF cannot with its VERY LIMITED tanker fleet cover the CdG group near Crete AND support a three axis air attack into Egypt with any significant force. CdG will have to fend for herself.
 
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wjr    RE:France the worlds Kingmaker??   5/4/2005 10:36:04 PM
All, While I don?t think the invasion will work ? simply because it is much too rash and dependent upon absolutely nothing going wrong ? I do think that if the French manage to successfully invade and defeat the Egyptian military then she will be able to hold Egypt with 150,000 troops. The Arab street never pans out when it comes to actually doing something and the Egyptian street has an even more dubious record. Some small number of folks will go nuts and blow themselves up trying to reverse the fait accompli but one of the really admirable behaviors of the French army is their lack of patience with such ill mannered behavior. The French will put this down rapidly and efficiently but in a manner that would be condemned if the U.S. used such tactics. The media won?t notice as the French are good Euro Social Democrats (and, therefore given a pass with the exception of the Sun) and no one else will care. Egypt would, likely, be better off and, certainly, the Egyptian antiquities would be much better cared for. Best, wjr
 
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