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Subject: How rank France in world power?
french stratege    4/23/2005 9:33:41 PM
o be a world power means to master a number of power tools and capacities: Economic power: France have fourth largest economy in world, even UK GNP seems on a par.But in fact France has a slightly bigger GDP in Puchasing Power Parity, a stronguer industry as its share in GNP is bigger, and especially in military usable industry (automotive, steel, microelectronic ...). Its trade balnce is positive unless US and UK.We benefit of Euro in sense that in a crisis, Euro would not go down like pound.Our financial market is less sensitive to crisis than UK. Then our saving, gold and currencies reserves are higher. France has 43 companies in the WORLD FORTUNE 500 ranking, one more than Germany and much more than UK or Italy.For example UK industry is stronguer than France in prescription drug but you can not use that for war. War potential: US: 100; Japan: 55, Germany ,40, France 25, UK 20. Diplomatic influence: should I said that French diplomatic network is world class and second to US only (with better skills).That our foreign aid is higher than UK or US in GNP %? That we have VETO right in UNO? That our cultural influence is world second after US? Thank to our industry we can substitute to US or Russia to deliver to a friend the whole set of weapons INDEPENDANTLY (from airfighters to subs via tank or C4ISR) and can shift power balance in any area.WE ARE THE SECOND WESTERN INDEPENDANT SUPPLIER AFTER US FOR CAPACITIES. We are the only Euro nation to have the full INDEPENDANT world reco network which is second to USA. RECO satellites, Telecom satellites (bandwith second to US), ELINT satellites, DSP satellites (in 2008), METEO satellites, spy ships, 30 ELINT ground station in word with 2 dedicated to spy US satelites, SPACE SURVEILLANCE RADAR. An unkown assets is that we are the only nation with US which can produce any currencies in world (to make false money in perfect imitation - we are the best in Europe for money technology) Sensitivity to energy imports: Our oil company is fourth in world and we have ROBUST assets in non middle east areas like Gabon, Angola etc...We produce our oil industry heavy equipment and our industry is world second of US in this field. Our nuclear energy production is world second in world and give us independance on electricity.Our influence in Africa secure minerals imports. Sensitivity to embargo: France has world class semiconductors facilities and hold the more advanced Europe wafer fab (joint venture between Motorola, SGS Thomson and Philips). Our auto maker build 7,5 million car /year, we have Airbus main designed office in France and so on...Our industry is pretty well balanced and produce almost everything at world class. Then we are the only Euro nation with a launch pad and Euro leader in Space.So we do not depend on US or other nation. We produce the second set of weapons after US and we do not depend of any supplier. Military technology: we are mastering everything form nukes to C4ISR with a technological level recognised by US as world second (while UK is close after).Of course neither Japan, Germany or China enjoy such an advantage. Nukes: our nuclear force are world THIRD and we produce precise counterforce weapons INDEPENDANTLY.Good second strike ability.400 warheads vs 200 for UK.(and we have stored weapons we can reactivate).3 SSBN can strike anywhere in the world. Military skills: our war academy is renown with US and UK.Israelis send some generals to perfectionate. Should I remember that Saudia Arabia asked French to crush rebellion in Mecka and not to US or UK?Saudis special forces and military stalled two weeks before asking France help.We did it in two days with 70 commandos leading Saudi commando (and using combat nerve gaz killing 2000 rebels). Mitary capacities. Second world force projection from 2007 to 2012 as a single Cdg with 3E2C and 40 Rafales, protected by 19 frigates with top ASW, 6 SSN and 3 Horizon with ASTER 30 outperform anything UK have: Indeed UK has 2 ACTIVE small carriers (with limited self protection and 60 harriers), they will not have any BVR fighters with FA2 retirement, and not antiship capacity since Harrier GR7/9 have NO RADAR!! UK air force has an handfull of non operational EF supported by 63 old Tornado ADV.No medium range airdefense for their troops. They have more SSN (soon reduced to 8 only) and military transport but we rely on civilian military prepared transports from french companies and our overseas bases to accumulate locally . ONLY US, UK, Russia and Japan has a sub force strong enough to put in danger our fleet. In fact we can crush any OPFOR airforce of 100 SU27/Mig29 (plus old MIGS or SU) without AWAC, ONLY relying on Cdg (even I agree a second would be better and needed). Most of nation do not have ENOUGH YAKHONT equivalent missiles to crush our naval force until our second carrier is operational. UK is unable to do that and in 2010 only 4 T45 will have entered service
 
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Godofgamblers    ok, enough russian    5/4/2005 6:34:15 AM
let's get back to the topic at hand: i know at least three or four are convinced that France can choke egypt, bomb it into submission and/or occupy it. the number of naysayers seems to be higher. what is the final verdict? it seems Gix and FS are both hors de combat... eto zal...
 
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gixxxerking    My Vote   5/4/2005 8:24:33 AM
I say France CAN BOMB EGYPT IN A PUNATIVE RAID. But France CANNOT INVADE AND OCCUPY EGYPT. Well done FS. All the way up to the point where you sail your fleet withing range of the Egyptian airforce or attempt a landing.
 
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french stratege    RE:My Vote   5/4/2005 9:26:55 AM
I have to remember few things: Issues: -Procurement: We can see egyptian procurement: www.tau.ac.il/jcss/balance/Egypt.pdf - Naval: Quantity of Egypt air launched harpoon is quite limited (32). French has not only 128 to 172 aster 30/15 in 2009 but 390 crotale NG on ramp and hundred Mistral to intercept missiles.12 Rafale plus 3 E2C in air defense of Cdg (other use for attack) plus distance and warning (OTH, awac) make an attack near Creta unlikely to make significant dammage to our fleet. - HUMINT warning: no way that Egyptian HUMINT is able to know if some 20 Rafale are attacking Egypt (first wave sparhead) as routinely such a quantity is flying from Djibouti or Cdg (which humint for cdg- by swimming?) - land attack: Some forgot that one attack is land based from Chad and already prebased there: no landing.This motorized corps can threat Nile Valley, Ras Banas or west med coast via desert. More over helos force can come either from Chad , Djibouti or LPH Even more Egypt is well within range of our 80 tactical transports for paratroopers close to maximum load. - men: France has enough man to control large parts of Egypt: 150 000 men at least (French active force have 137 000 active army, 66 000 air force, 45 000 navy plus 65 000 reservists and 100 0000 gendarmes plus 100000 reservist gendarmes - Gendarmes can provide 50000 men for Egypt using some reserve and part of active to control rear areas and even provide some motorized regiments) As I said in the scenario we don't try to control Cairo and Delta unless they surrender. - it is very difficult for Egypt to cover on ground its north coast from Lybia to Israel , southern desert, and Red Sea(assuming they have lost 60% of F16) Baren land made air superiority more efficient as it is difficult to hide and moreover French force are much mobiles thank to Helos and tactical transport and digitalized communication and C4ISR. France has a near total control of EW spectrum.
 
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french stratege    addendum   5/4/2005 9:31:41 AM
I have to remember few things: Issues: -Procurement: We can see egyptian procurement: www.tau.ac.il/jcss/balance/Egypt.pdf - Naval: Quantity of Egypt air launched harpoon is quite limited (32). French has not only 128 to 172 aster 30/15 in 2009 but 390 crotale NG on ramp and hundred Mistral to intercept missiles.12 Rafale plus 3 E2C in air defense of Cdg (other use for attack) plus distance and warning (OTH, awac) make an attack near Creta unlikely to make significant dammage to our fleet. - HUMINT warning: no way that Egyptian HUMINT is able to know if some 20 Rafale are attacking Egypt (first wave sparhead) as routinely such a quantity is flying from Djibouti or Cdg (which humint for cdg- by swimming?) - land attack: Some forgot that one attack is land based from Chad and already prebased there: no landing.This motorized corps can threat Nile Valley, Ras Banas or west med coast via desert to support a landing while backstabbing deployed Egyptian forces. More over helos force can come either from Chad , Djibouti or LPH Even more Egypt is well within range of our 80 tactical transports for paratroopers close to maximum load. - men: France has enough man to control large parts of Egypt: 150 000 men at least (French active force have 137 000 active army, 66 000 air force, 45 000 navy plus 65 000 reservists and 100 0000 gendarmes plus 100000 reservist gendarmes - Gendarmes can provide 50000 men for Egypt using some reserve and part of active to control rear areas and even provide some motorized regiments) As I said in the scenario we don't try to control Cairo and Delta unless they surrender. - mobility: it is very difficult for Egypt to cover on ground its north coast from Lybia to Israel , southern desert, and Red Sea(assuming they have lost 60% of F16) Baren land made air superiority more efficient as it is difficult to hide and moreover French force are much mobiles thank to Helos and tactical transport and digitalized communication and C4ISR. - EW spectrum: Egypt doesn't do its own ECM/ECM systems and does not receive the most secret and sophisticated systems.It is exactly the reason that Israel has its own industry and maintain TWO companies to make them compete each other to be competitive while normally Israel has still a better access to US sophisticated weapons than other US allies. France has a near total control of EW spectrum.
 
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Godofgamblers    arbitrator for final decision (?)   5/4/2005 9:48:30 AM
i elect Alexis as the ultimate arbitrator in this debate. i'm sure no one has any objections.
 
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johnboy    Godofgamblers   5/4/2005 10:16:56 AM
Having come back here, it's nice to see someone who isn't a knee-jerk, racist Francophobe. I like Francophobic jokes as much as the next Anglo-German English-speaker (hehehe), but unlike some people, I don't let my irrational hatreds blind me to simple truths. Besides, what's up with wasting so much time and energy on a scenario that is so unlikely, well, I think Cubans taking Mexico City will happen first. There are plenty of things going on in the world right now, or things that are likely to happen, without wasting away on this fantasy to try and prove that white is black, and the French have no power projection capability.
 
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Godofgamblers    RE:Godofgamblers   5/4/2005 10:26:27 AM
i see you're taking a lot of flak on another thread with people claiming you must "really be french". hehe they should know that 'johnboy' is american as american pie (unless it's a carefully crafted cover... hmm... just kidding). but i appreciate someone like yourself who can see things from a different perspective: it shows that you are a free thinker. it is one of americans' best qualities.
 
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johnboy    RE:Godofgamblers   5/4/2005 11:56:31 AM
No kidding. As if my lifelong nickname weren't a big enough hint of where I'm from... yeesh. Still, watch this: "You know, I think couscous and roasted goat are pretty tasty!" *waiting for the Sean Hannity brigade to come out and accuse me of being a Talibani....* It's the standard defense of the armchair general who can't think for himself; attack the other guy's patriotism.
 
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Herc the Merc    France the worlds Kingmaker??   5/4/2005 1:49:35 PM
France shifted the balance of power aginst Great Britain to liberate the US. Do you think FRance will make China a strong military power??
 
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french stratege    RE:France the worlds Kingmaker??   5/4/2005 1:59:45 PM
We had shifted the balance of power with Ottoman empire in the 16 th century to undermine Habsbourg empire and it did work well!Continuous war with the Turks in the Balkan and Aegean sea cost a lot to Habsbourg treasury and bankrupt them. UK also known well in the past how to shift balance between powers and France paid also an heavy toll.
 
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