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Subject: How rank France in world power?
french stratege    4/23/2005 9:33:41 PM
o be a world power means to master a number of power tools and capacities: Economic power: France have fourth largest economy in world, even UK GNP seems on a par.But in fact France has a slightly bigger GDP in Puchasing Power Parity, a stronguer industry as its share in GNP is bigger, and especially in military usable industry (automotive, steel, microelectronic ...). Its trade balnce is positive unless US and UK.We benefit of Euro in sense that in a crisis, Euro would not go down like pound.Our financial market is less sensitive to crisis than UK. Then our saving, gold and currencies reserves are higher. France has 43 companies in the WORLD FORTUNE 500 ranking, one more than Germany and much more than UK or Italy.For example UK industry is stronguer than France in prescription drug but you can not use that for war. War potential: US: 100; Japan: 55, Germany ,40, France 25, UK 20. Diplomatic influence: should I said that French diplomatic network is world class and second to US only (with better skills).That our foreign aid is higher than UK or US in GNP %? That we have VETO right in UNO? That our cultural influence is world second after US? Thank to our industry we can substitute to US or Russia to deliver to a friend the whole set of weapons INDEPENDANTLY (from airfighters to subs via tank or C4ISR) and can shift power balance in any area.WE ARE THE SECOND WESTERN INDEPENDANT SUPPLIER AFTER US FOR CAPACITIES. We are the only Euro nation to have the full INDEPENDANT world reco network which is second to USA. RECO satellites, Telecom satellites (bandwith second to US), ELINT satellites, DSP satellites (in 2008), METEO satellites, spy ships, 30 ELINT ground station in word with 2 dedicated to spy US satelites, SPACE SURVEILLANCE RADAR. An unkown assets is that we are the only nation with US which can produce any currencies in world (to make false money in perfect imitation - we are the best in Europe for money technology) Sensitivity to energy imports: Our oil company is fourth in world and we have ROBUST assets in non middle east areas like Gabon, Angola etc...We produce our oil industry heavy equipment and our industry is world second of US in this field. Our nuclear energy production is world second in world and give us independance on electricity.Our influence in Africa secure minerals imports. Sensitivity to embargo: France has world class semiconductors facilities and hold the more advanced Europe wafer fab (joint venture between Motorola, SGS Thomson and Philips). Our auto maker build 7,5 million car /year, we have Airbus main designed office in France and so on...Our industry is pretty well balanced and produce almost everything at world class. Then we are the only Euro nation with a launch pad and Euro leader in Space.So we do not depend on US or other nation. We produce the second set of weapons after US and we do not depend of any supplier. Military technology: we are mastering everything form nukes to C4ISR with a technological level recognised by US as world second (while UK is close after).Of course neither Japan, Germany or China enjoy such an advantage. Nukes: our nuclear force are world THIRD and we produce precise counterforce weapons INDEPENDANTLY.Good second strike ability.400 warheads vs 200 for UK.(and we have stored weapons we can reactivate).3 SSBN can strike anywhere in the world. Military skills: our war academy is renown with US and UK.Israelis send some generals to perfectionate. Should I remember that Saudia Arabia asked French to crush rebellion in Mecka and not to US or UK?Saudis special forces and military stalled two weeks before asking France help.We did it in two days with 70 commandos leading Saudi commando (and using combat nerve gaz killing 2000 rebels). Mitary capacities. Second world force projection from 2007 to 2012 as a single Cdg with 3E2C and 40 Rafales, protected by 19 frigates with top ASW, 6 SSN and 3 Horizon with ASTER 30 outperform anything UK have: Indeed UK has 2 ACTIVE small carriers (with limited self protection and 60 harriers), they will not have any BVR fighters with FA2 retirement, and not antiship capacity since Harrier GR7/9 have NO RADAR!! UK air force has an handfull of non operational EF supported by 63 old Tornado ADV.No medium range airdefense for their troops. They have more SSN (soon reduced to 8 only) and military transport but we rely on civilian military prepared transports from french companies and our overseas bases to accumulate locally . ONLY US, UK, Russia and Japan has a sub force strong enough to put in danger our fleet. In fact we can crush any OPFOR airforce of 100 SU27/Mig29 (plus old MIGS or SU) without AWAC, ONLY relying on Cdg (even I agree a second would be better and needed). Most of nation do not have ENOUGH YAKHONT equivalent missiles to crush our naval force until our second carrier is operational. UK is unable to do that and in 2010 only 4 T45 will have entered service
 
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mithradates    RE:gixx EMP attack   5/3/2005 1:46:21 AM
"This scenario would ensure direct international support if a traditional nuke is used to produce the effects. Imagine the headline, "French detonate a nuclear weapon over Egypt in an unprovoked attack". The average person will only understand it as a nuclear attack. And anarchy and chaos will break out in Egypt. Every AK-47 in that nation will still finction as will most of the other military equipment. What will happen is a super insurgency with modern weapons systems under no central authority and no means to issue surrender orders. Iraq is many time weaker and look at the trouble. France has much less power than the US and would have to deal with a much bigger problem." When you takeout basic utilities and the communications grid, the entire country would go into anarchy. For one thing there wouldn't be enough food and water to sustain the cities, this in itself would cause millions of people to leave the urban centers to go the country side thus causing more anarchy. Egypt's C4I would be either badly crippled or completely destroyed, in which case a coordinated air attack would be impossible. Moreover, even if some of their C4I nodes are hardend, the electronics on their planes are not,their F-16s won't work after an EMP attack. Now remember, for the short term, an attack like this will cause a humanitarian disaster, so if the French capitalized on it, they can conquor the country. Military force alone will allow them to take over Egypt. To actually control it, the French could use access to food and medical supplies as a leverage to coerce the resisting Egyptians. How do you think warlords in Somalia kept their people under control?
 
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mithradates    RE:gixx EMP attack   5/3/2005 1:55:34 AM
And BTW, I'm not arguing that this course of action is right, merely as a solution to the scenario. This solution shows that if the war was just between those 2 nations, France can conqor the whole of Egypt with relatively light casualties. Whether they can keep their conquest for the long term is something else altogether.
 
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gixxxerking    RE:gixx EMP attack   5/3/2005 2:46:03 AM
In a hypothetical situation isolated solely between France and Egypt, war is not possible because France does not have the force projection ability to land amphibious forces in an opposed operation against an army as pwerful as Egypts. France would have to use Djibouti and maybe Chad and then violate Libya and/or Sudan and/or Eritria just to get to Egypt. Very impracticle indeed. So it is adolescent to even consider this war without the politics of the region. Those politics dictate the military posture of the opponents. Egyptian forces organized or not in an invasion where national survival was at stake would inflict huge casualties on the French. I mean much greater than 15 to 20 thousand dead minimum assuming French resolve could withstand that long. Long term is important. In Vietnam the USA won all the major battles but in the long term and due to politics lost the war. Considering that Saigon is now Ho Chi Mihn City I say long term consequences matter. The same is true of the Soviets in Afghanistan that latter of which is still a sovern nation. If the Short term was was all that mettered then the history would have to say the US had victory in Vietnam as well as the Soviet in Afghanistan just by being there. Getting boots on the ground is only the start of the war. France has only a slight chance to do even that! Leaving by you own choice and under no duress is ending on victorious terms. So the short version is, no, France cannot at this time or in 2009 assuming FS proposed French armed forces invade OR conquer Egypt.
 
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gixxxerking    RE:gixx EMP attack   5/3/2005 2:54:35 AM
mithradates, the chips on the F-16s and most of the other gear are MILSPEC and some of it hardened against EMP.
 
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gixxxerking    Egyptian Deterent   5/3/2005 2:57:08 AM
TU-16 with ASM vs French Nuclear Facilities in France. Chem/Bio attach on Djibouti and Chadean based French forces. Not the equivilent of French SLBMs but enough to deter it.
 
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Ander320    RE:gixxxerking   5/3/2005 7:01:18 AM
"Ander320 I am not too familiar with you so dont take this too personal but a lot of people think of nukes aa an ultimate weapon when they are really nothing more than a large bomb. Against civilian targets like cities they are devastating to the local area of the explosion. Againct a point target they are also devastating. But a military division with armor is quite survivable. Withing 2 hours German units could be 100km into French territory in a suprise attack. " I was not speaking of military target. The french doctrine is to destroyed the city center of the ennemy if it doesn't stop after a first tactical strike on the logistical base (not the army group but airbase and command fix center) So yes the german army (letting air power out of the equation) may be able to invade France but the german gouvernement would have to accept the idea of a few city roten. (nothing against the german here i was totally in a what if position)
 
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french stratege    nuclear   5/3/2005 9:28:16 AM
I' m not favoring a nuclear attack. BTW we have conventional EMP bomb which would be used in the first waves. Gxxx : old Tu16 are nothing and their is no way Egyptian could mount such an a attack on French fleet protected by E2C and Rafale with any success moreover at more than 500 miles. I remember you that Egypt can not make any strong attack on France or Djibouti (out of range or to weak attack easily disrupted). Egypt has provocated France and killed its citizen. We have the choice of schedule of first attacks like US with Iraqis. I still wonder if our main landing have to be made in med (Marsa Mathru or Al salum on Lybian border) or Ras Banas. We can not split Cdg between two seas and our landing task force. I agree with Bluewing that med simplify logistic and also surprise effect as we can send landing force only after Egypt air force has been destroyed while in Djibouti preparation will be noticed. So I will examinate a improved scenario based on med for main landing while Djibouti is used for air attack and reinforcement. I remmber you that Egypt has only 213 F16A/C
 
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wjr    RE:gog   5/3/2005 9:38:28 AM
AchtungLagg, A rain of frogs. Positively Biblical. Best, wjr
 
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french stratege    Improved scenario part 1   5/3/2005 9:55:00 AM
I remember you that Egyptian governement benefit on no help as they are seen as a group of thugs after killing French and western citizens. act1: preparing (3 months) Push French industry at top rate using exiting facilities and preempt weapons deliveries to foreign customers when needed.Production kit for AMX30 B2.Accelearting easy updates (electronic cards).Reserving 200 Leopard 2 from Germans if needed. Building Chad and Djibouti: Chad: send via Dakar using civilian sealift plus airlift (12 747 cargo + 6 AN124). Motorized corps: 4 Brigades: one armored, one cavalerie, 2 motorized, 1 airmobile, 3 airfield enginners rgmts 80 Leclerc 192 AM10 RC 2500 VBCI/VAB/VBL + 24 MRLS + 210 Caesar/TR155 + 300 helos 1 AWACs 1 aster30 rgmt, amunitions stocks, 16 transall for air refueling airfield improved in Abeche and n'djamena plus airfields in north. Djibouti: 1 awac, 5 Batrals, +ro-ro + amunitions + 1 armored brigade. France: preparing ro-ro and ferries in 3 months.Preparation of 2 armored brigades and two mechanized, 1 paratroopers, 1 marine Infantry.Reactivating 2/3 SSK.Buying some transports and ro-ro to friends.Accelerating training. Diplomatie: negociating with Egyptian to win time (and also Greec, Chypriots, Lybian, Ethipian , Erytreans and Sudanese to get lever of actions). Probably we could have one or two countries in our hand (after paying). Survey operations in Egypt, locating F16 E2C pilots families and air force secondary locations. Next to come: air attack!
 
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french stratege    wjr biblical?   5/3/2005 10:00:31 AM
After all, Mary Madelein went in Provence France after Jesus crucification, we are the elder daughter of Church and we have the Holy Graal ! Arch of Alliance is supposed to be in Ethiopia so close to Djibouti, and our services will get it! LOL! How we can loose?
 
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