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Subject: How rank France in world power?
french stratege    4/23/2005 9:33:41 PM
o be a world power means to master a number of power tools and capacities: Economic power: France have fourth largest economy in world, even UK GNP seems on a par.But in fact France has a slightly bigger GDP in Puchasing Power Parity, a stronguer industry as its share in GNP is bigger, and especially in military usable industry (automotive, steel, microelectronic ...). Its trade balnce is positive unless US and UK.We benefit of Euro in sense that in a crisis, Euro would not go down like pound.Our financial market is less sensitive to crisis than UK. Then our saving, gold and currencies reserves are higher. France has 43 companies in the WORLD FORTUNE 500 ranking, one more than Germany and much more than UK or Italy.For example UK industry is stronguer than France in prescription drug but you can not use that for war. War potential: US: 100; Japan: 55, Germany ,40, France 25, UK 20. Diplomatic influence: should I said that French diplomatic network is world class and second to US only (with better skills).That our foreign aid is higher than UK or US in GNP %? That we have VETO right in UNO? That our cultural influence is world second after US? Thank to our industry we can substitute to US or Russia to deliver to a friend the whole set of weapons INDEPENDANTLY (from airfighters to subs via tank or C4ISR) and can shift power balance in any area.WE ARE THE SECOND WESTERN INDEPENDANT SUPPLIER AFTER US FOR CAPACITIES. We are the only Euro nation to have the full INDEPENDANT world reco network which is second to USA. RECO satellites, Telecom satellites (bandwith second to US), ELINT satellites, DSP satellites (in 2008), METEO satellites, spy ships, 30 ELINT ground station in word with 2 dedicated to spy US satelites, SPACE SURVEILLANCE RADAR. An unkown assets is that we are the only nation with US which can produce any currencies in world (to make false money in perfect imitation - we are the best in Europe for money technology) Sensitivity to energy imports: Our oil company is fourth in world and we have ROBUST assets in non middle east areas like Gabon, Angola etc...We produce our oil industry heavy equipment and our industry is world second of US in this field. Our nuclear energy production is world second in world and give us independance on electricity.Our influence in Africa secure minerals imports. Sensitivity to embargo: France has world class semiconductors facilities and hold the more advanced Europe wafer fab (joint venture between Motorola, SGS Thomson and Philips). Our auto maker build 7,5 million car /year, we have Airbus main designed office in France and so on...Our industry is pretty well balanced and produce almost everything at world class. Then we are the only Euro nation with a launch pad and Euro leader in Space.So we do not depend on US or other nation. We produce the second set of weapons after US and we do not depend of any supplier. Military technology: we are mastering everything form nukes to C4ISR with a technological level recognised by US as world second (while UK is close after).Of course neither Japan, Germany or China enjoy such an advantage. Nukes: our nuclear force are world THIRD and we produce precise counterforce weapons INDEPENDANTLY.Good second strike ability.400 warheads vs 200 for UK.(and we have stored weapons we can reactivate).3 SSBN can strike anywhere in the world. Military skills: our war academy is renown with US and UK.Israelis send some generals to perfectionate. Should I remember that Saudia Arabia asked French to crush rebellion in Mecka and not to US or UK?Saudis special forces and military stalled two weeks before asking France help.We did it in two days with 70 commandos leading Saudi commando (and using combat nerve gaz killing 2000 rebels). Mitary capacities. Second world force projection from 2007 to 2012 as a single Cdg with 3E2C and 40 Rafales, protected by 19 frigates with top ASW, 6 SSN and 3 Horizon with ASTER 30 outperform anything UK have: Indeed UK has 2 ACTIVE small carriers (with limited self protection and 60 harriers), they will not have any BVR fighters with FA2 retirement, and not antiship capacity since Harrier GR7/9 have NO RADAR!! UK air force has an handfull of non operational EF supported by 63 old Tornado ADV.No medium range airdefense for their troops. They have more SSN (soon reduced to 8 only) and military transport but we rely on civilian military prepared transports from french companies and our overseas bases to accumulate locally . ONLY US, UK, Russia and Japan has a sub force strong enough to put in danger our fleet. In fact we can crush any OPFOR airforce of 100 SU27/Mig29 (plus old MIGS or SU) without AWAC, ONLY relying on Cdg (even I agree a second would be better and needed). Most of nation do not have ENOUGH YAKHONT equivalent missiles to crush our naval force until our second carrier is operational. UK is unable to do that and in 2010 only 4 T45 will have entered service
 
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Godofgamblers    gixx/wjr/FS ARAB COURAGE   5/2/2005 10:44:52 PM
it's not cowardice on the part of the arabs. their leadership in inept and corrupt. anyone who dies for them is a fool. as a lebanese who was in uniform when the israelis entered lebanon told me re: arab leadership, "THEY TELL YOU TO DIG A TRENCH AND GIVE YOU A SPOON!" anyone who actually obeyed orders in those conditions would be a fool. it's not really a question of cowardice or bravery. FS, why bother invading? just drop leaflets giving instructions on where to surrender. much more economical...
 
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gixxxerking    RE:gixx/wjr/FS ARAB COURAGE   5/2/2005 10:52:49 PM
GoG, the French could have friendly fire incidents with the leaflets and turn surrender instead! Ok,ok enough with the jokes. The Egyptians are no more likely to surrender than the French are. I can tell you the Egyptian army of 2005 or 2009 is a far cry from the 1960-1970s. And M1 Abrams and F-16 are hardly spoons. Military prudence says you have to assume your enemy would fight until the last man. Also look at the counter attack on the CdG group. That attack happens within 2 to 4 hours after hostilities. It would almost certainly succeed. If not sinking the CdG AT LEAST chasing her away and delaying the attack. Imagine the morale booster of sinking the first carrier since WW II! And thats before the French Army even puts a boot on the ground in Egypt.
 
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Godofgamblers    wjr   5/2/2005 10:54:21 PM
i know practically nothing about the philippine military. but what i know is that the indo military is not in good shape. constant US embargoes have grounded our airforce. our navy cannot patrol our own seas as it is underfunded. most of our budget goes to the army: it is used for internal repression, riots, civil wars, etc. we are now shifting to buying russian equipment as it is cheaper and easier to maintain. also the russkis never put embargoes on. the recent incident between malaysia and indonesia occurred because indo does not have any presence at all in islands which are legally ours. we have zero force projection, meaning that a confrontation between the philippines and indo, at least from our side, is not even a remote possibility. we could repel an invasion using land forces. we have a lot of brit APCs and light tanks. howver, since we have 17,000 islands, enemy forces could land and we would never even know it! our best unit is KOPASSUS, an 'elite' commando unit. i spoke to an Aussie SAS who met up with them in Timor and he told me that they were basically on the level of a conventional (non-SF) western unit. as for the rest of our units... they suffer from the same problems as the egyptians, i imagine: non-existent infrastructure, poor training, poor equipment, a sort of "make do" attitude to everything. all the ingredients for a complete fiasco.... GoG
 
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Godofgamblers    RE:gixx/wjr/FS ARAB COURAGE   5/2/2005 10:57:11 PM
ok, let's wait and see what FS has up his sleeve.
 
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gixxxerking    RE:gixx/wjr/FS ARAB COURAGE   5/2/2005 11:12:02 PM
Funny thing is I have left the French the following options. 1. Do not attack do to high risk of failure 2. Attack at high cost and have their invasion defeated in detail 3. Deploy Nuclear Weapons which would ultimately bring the world down on the French
 
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mithradates    RE:gixx/wjr/FS ARAB COURAGE   5/2/2005 11:26:24 PM
Well, there could be the third option. It's a little bit out there but still doable. It requires prepositioning the french armored forces to the south and at the CDG task force near Crete. The key here will be to detonate 2-3 medium yield EMB bombs high above Egypt, not quite LEO but definitetly higher than anything patriot missle batteries can hit. This must be done prior to the conventional attack. In this manner, civilian casualties are kept to a minimum and the Egyption C3I networks will be paralyzed and their most modern weapons platforms will be useless. This strategy can probably allow France to win this local war.
 
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wjr    RE:wjr   5/2/2005 11:39:18 PM
GoG, It?s been a while since I was in Indonesia and my interaction with the military there was not good ? a very corrupt group and a lot of posturing that reminded me of the ARVN guys just before we had to push them out of the chopper at the LZ. My experience with the government was even worse ? outrageous baksish even by Indian standards. I always dealt with Jakarta the same way I deal with Mexico City ? a well paid guy with a gun meets me and goes with me wherever I go. Getting across the Straits was always a relief. The Phils are a little different. I have walked from Pasig across Makati at night with no more problem than every kid in the place trying to sell me mangos. The government is very corrupt and very frustrating. However, how many places have elected a soap opera star president? Erap was a piece of work ? anti-American in tagalog but pro-American in English. None of it meant anything as the only thing Erap was ever against was poverty (his own) and the only that he was for was wealth ? again, his own. I knew a number of military folks there during the Ramos period. The upper level was always suspect in terms of anything dealing with money but a lot of the field guys were outright nasty guys (to the bad guys) and seemed pretty good. These troops were more counter insurgency and anti-pirate than traditional Western troops. Zamboanga can be tough. Generally speaking I have always thought of the place as a comic opera. What else is one to think when the national sport appears to be bank robbery - where both sides are armed but neither side has any ammunition generally. After the big heist then there is generally a car chase. Mind you, a high speed chase in Manila is one that never actually gets faster than about 20mph due to traffic conditions and it seems that no one is ever caught. All of this breathlessly reported the next day in one - all - of the tabloids that pretend to be newspapers. Wonderful people, crazy place. Best, wjr
 
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gixxxerking    mithradates   5/2/2005 11:48:15 PM
An excellent tactic! One that I could not defend against! Unfortunately for France, Egypt would not have to defend against it. That would not only affect Egypt. But Israel, Saudi Arabia, Libya, Sudan, ect would also be affected by that as would ships in the Med. The Egyptian army would also be intact but in a very degraded state of communications. But again the politics would prevent it as it would still be Nuclear Weapons use! That would give a green light to an anti-French coalition which if formed would prevail. Also there is the consideration that Egypt has lived next to a nuclear power for 30+ years and is likely to have a limited means for the military to resist EMP. But this is speculation on my part. What isnt speculation is that the only French weapons capable of this are SLBMs. With their trajectories the effects would spread much past Egypt and could damage vital oil production in near by Saudi Arabia. That would ensure an American response. On behalf of Egypt of course. But I like the outside the box thinking!
 
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gixxxerking    RE:mithradates   5/2/2005 11:57:12 PM
While I dont have much defense. I certainly have an offense. MAD on the cheap. SCUD B missiles armed with Antrax and nerve gas for Chad and Djibouti based French forces and Similar warheads for a few Kelt missiles on TU-16 on a trip to French population centers. IF even one of these weapons get to its target which will be civilian population centers in some cases there will be thousands of deaths. And the fact that it is in retaliation to first use on nuclear weapons could give legitimacy to it.
 
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Godofgamblers    RE:wjr Notes on the philippines   5/2/2005 11:58:04 PM
the good thing about indos is that there seems to be a complete lack of 'machismo' that you see in philippinos. in indo confrontations are very rare and robberies always attempt to 'trick' you; violence is rarely used or lethal. everyone has a gun in the philippines; even 'zip guns' which can be bought for $7. the philippines seem to be deeply into this machismo thing; must be from the spanish. i was at a meeting attended by our ex-prez (gus dur) who had a philippino bodyguard who had a go at me for no apparent reason. one of those attempted 'crushing' handshake things. unfortunately, he lacked crushing power so he just... looked... really... lame. some sort of show of strength that just didn't come off. the few brushes i have had with them seem to be of a similar nature. they seem to have something to prove in a big way. however, they are generally better educated than indos and their women are quite beautiful. politically they are a mess. indonesia at least has vast natural resources. the philippines has little going for it. cheap go go bars and little scope for sustained development. their electronics trade is heavily dependent on US growth, as the US is the only buyer. sorry you had such a bad time in indo. once you get out of jakarta, things are a bit more sociable. GoG
 
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