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Subject: How rank France in world power?
french stratege    4/23/2005 9:33:41 PM
o be a world power means to master a number of power tools and capacities: Economic power: France have fourth largest economy in world, even UK GNP seems on a par.But in fact France has a slightly bigger GDP in Puchasing Power Parity, a stronguer industry as its share in GNP is bigger, and especially in military usable industry (automotive, steel, microelectronic ...). Its trade balnce is positive unless US and UK.We benefit of Euro in sense that in a crisis, Euro would not go down like pound.Our financial market is less sensitive to crisis than UK. Then our saving, gold and currencies reserves are higher. France has 43 companies in the WORLD FORTUNE 500 ranking, one more than Germany and much more than UK or Italy.For example UK industry is stronguer than France in prescription drug but you can not use that for war. War potential: US: 100; Japan: 55, Germany ,40, France 25, UK 20. Diplomatic influence: should I said that French diplomatic network is world class and second to US only (with better skills).That our foreign aid is higher than UK or US in GNP %? That we have VETO right in UNO? That our cultural influence is world second after US? Thank to our industry we can substitute to US or Russia to deliver to a friend the whole set of weapons INDEPENDANTLY (from airfighters to subs via tank or C4ISR) and can shift power balance in any area.WE ARE THE SECOND WESTERN INDEPENDANT SUPPLIER AFTER US FOR CAPACITIES. We are the only Euro nation to have the full INDEPENDANT world reco network which is second to USA. RECO satellites, Telecom satellites (bandwith second to US), ELINT satellites, DSP satellites (in 2008), METEO satellites, spy ships, 30 ELINT ground station in word with 2 dedicated to spy US satelites, SPACE SURVEILLANCE RADAR. An unkown assets is that we are the only nation with US which can produce any currencies in world (to make false money in perfect imitation - we are the best in Europe for money technology) Sensitivity to energy imports: Our oil company is fourth in world and we have ROBUST assets in non middle east areas like Gabon, Angola etc...We produce our oil industry heavy equipment and our industry is world second of US in this field. Our nuclear energy production is world second in world and give us independance on electricity.Our influence in Africa secure minerals imports. Sensitivity to embargo: France has world class semiconductors facilities and hold the more advanced Europe wafer fab (joint venture between Motorola, SGS Thomson and Philips). Our auto maker build 7,5 million car /year, we have Airbus main designed office in France and so on...Our industry is pretty well balanced and produce almost everything at world class. Then we are the only Euro nation with a launch pad and Euro leader in Space.So we do not depend on US or other nation. We produce the second set of weapons after US and we do not depend of any supplier. Military technology: we are mastering everything form nukes to C4ISR with a technological level recognised by US as world second (while UK is close after).Of course neither Japan, Germany or China enjoy such an advantage. Nukes: our nuclear force are world THIRD and we produce precise counterforce weapons INDEPENDANTLY.Good second strike ability.400 warheads vs 200 for UK.(and we have stored weapons we can reactivate).3 SSBN can strike anywhere in the world. Military skills: our war academy is renown with US and UK.Israelis send some generals to perfectionate. Should I remember that Saudia Arabia asked French to crush rebellion in Mecka and not to US or UK?Saudis special forces and military stalled two weeks before asking France help.We did it in two days with 70 commandos leading Saudi commando (and using combat nerve gaz killing 2000 rebels). Mitary capacities. Second world force projection from 2007 to 2012 as a single Cdg with 3E2C and 40 Rafales, protected by 19 frigates with top ASW, 6 SSN and 3 Horizon with ASTER 30 outperform anything UK have: Indeed UK has 2 ACTIVE small carriers (with limited self protection and 60 harriers), they will not have any BVR fighters with FA2 retirement, and not antiship capacity since Harrier GR7/9 have NO RADAR!! UK air force has an handfull of non operational EF supported by 63 old Tornado ADV.No medium range airdefense for their troops. They have more SSN (soon reduced to 8 only) and military transport but we rely on civilian military prepared transports from french companies and our overseas bases to accumulate locally . ONLY US, UK, Russia and Japan has a sub force strong enough to put in danger our fleet. In fact we can crush any OPFOR airforce of 100 SU27/Mig29 (plus old MIGS or SU) without AWAC, ONLY relying on Cdg (even I agree a second would be better and needed). Most of nation do not have ENOUGH YAKHONT equivalent missiles to crush our naval force until our second carrier is operational. UK is unable to do that and in 2010 only 4 T45 will have entered service
 
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french stratege    RE:Cold Hard Facts   5/2/2005 4:11:44 PM
200 tanks lost is ok (AM10 RC , Leclerc, AMX30B2 Brenus). Egypt has only few Patriot, other are crap. If we get Egypt E2C, we win, period, even it takes 6 months. More over after the E2C crushing and F16, we will start to move in Egyptian western desert using our Chad cavalery/light armored wheelled 30 000 men corps (250 AMX10 RC, 2000 VAB-VBCI, 300 helos, maybe a bataillon of Leclerc in support and 1 MRLS regiment).Fast and efficient in desert (superiority in mobility if Egypt could bring few armored units). If we choose to go from Eritrea via Sudan to Egypt, everything is more easier (or from Lybia). link There is 1798 km between Aswan and Djibouti Il y a 2205 km entre Ajaccio et Alexandrie Il y a 1688 km entre Djibouti et Wadi Halfa Ras Banas: link
 
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gixxxerking    FS I see your problem   5/2/2005 4:12:17 PM
FS 800 sorties per day from CdG...lol! 800/40=20 per day assuming you use every aircraft. 20 catapult launches and arrested landings a day? Are you kidding. Hell Egypt could just conserve ammo and let the wear and tear on man and machine destroy your force! Als lets assume your average sortie last 1 hour. In reality it will be much much longer for these distances but for example lets say it is. at about 15 maintenance hours to each flying hour you better hope each CdG crew member is cross trained as a mechanic! Because after just one day you will need 300 hours of maintenace for all planes at the rediculous sortie rate. 300 hours, 35 hour work week...lol! 300 hours of maintenance a day times 40 aircraft 300*40=12000 maint hours a day to sustain just the aircraft! Thats You would need 1000+ mechanics working 12 hour days just to make that possible assuming you could supply all the parts and tools!
 
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tiff    French fleet 2009   5/2/2005 4:12:42 PM
FS time for a reality check on the French fleet of 2009 The largest drawback to your plans is your AAW assets. Here is what I mean. The CDG battlegroup will consist of the greater part of your AAW defence after all if the CDG is lost the war will be over. Only two Horizons will have been commissioned by 2009 (Forbin and Paul Knight.) The second commissioned in 2008 (so that ship must have been crewed, commissioned and worked up to a war fighting level in less than a year.) If that second Horizon is not available it only leaves the Cassard and Jean Bart. I suggest you need three AAW ships minimum to look after CDG for an extended period of time. Please clarify are they in Med or elsewhere. You would be crazy to place these capital assets in the Red sea. Therefore who is defending your amphibious battle group in the Red sea, there is no one left. You do not have enough assets to support two seperate battle groups. "We have 4 LSD able to receive 4 to 8 helo on deck plus 3 LPH with a total of 43 helos.Grand total of roughly 80 helos (including other ship) can be transported on the ships.The first wave doing air assaalt in weak defended area.Then 1 or 2 LPH are used as relay base to refuel helo from Djibouti." I am trying to interpret what you are saying. 4 LSD (landing ship dock) must consist of foudre, sirocco, orage and ouragan. unfortunately orage and ouragan will have been sold to argentina in 2006. 3 helo carriers is difficult to understand, I assume you mean Jeanne d'arc, mistral and tonnerrre. well JDA will have decommissioned in 2006 the other two have hangar space for 16 helo's each. Before you start claiming you will bring all these extra ships out of mothballs please bear in mind the Foch was transferred to Brazil the same day she was decommissioned by France.
 
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french stratege    sum=800 !!!!! re read properly please!!!!   5/2/2005 4:17:49 PM
I said 100 to 120 sorties per day from Cdg 378 from C135 tanker 297 from C160 NG tanker sum=800 !!!!! reread properly please!!!!
 
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gixxxerking    RE:Cold Hard Facts   5/2/2005 4:27:03 PM
"200 tanks lost is ok (AM10 RC , Leclerc, AMX30B2 Brenus). Egypt has only few Patriot, other are crap. If we get Egypt E2C, we win, period, even it takes 6 months. More over after the E2C crushing and F16, we will start to move in Egyptian western desert using our Chad cavalery/light armored wheelled 30 000 men corps (250 AMX10 RC, 2000 VAB-VBCI, 300 helos, maybe a bataillon of Leclerc in support and 1 MRLS regiment).Fast and efficient in desert (superiority in mobility if Egypt could bring few armored units). If we choose to go from Eritrea via Sudan to Egypt, everything is more easier (or from Lybia). link There is 1798 km between Aswan and Djibouti Il y a 2205 km entre Ajaccio et Alexandrie Il y a 1688 km entre Djibouti et Wadi Halfa Ras Banas: link --FS Not if you are a tanker it isnt OK! To lose over 1/3 of your armor means a serious vulnerability! And FS it only takes a few Patriot! Those few Patriot will make your tactics change. Like having to fly much lower to stay under radar horizon which means you burn more fuel. Now your Corsica, Djibouti and Chad based fighters cant make it without multiple refueling and full load of drop tanks. Bye Bye Low RCS. Now you are in range of older shorter ranged SAMs, MANPADS and AAA. 1000 miles is no short trip for TACAIR FS. if I was in the lead Leclerc and I needed that ATGM position bombed I dont have 2 hours to wait for CAS sortie. Every time you are stopped by strong resistance or obstacle the Abrams will flank you. Also consider you will have to try to get flank shots too as the Abrams will survive your APFDS rounds from the front in most cases. So it will be a series of meeting engagements were both forces will be trying to turn the other for the flank kill shot. And Egypt has 3 to 1 or better odds in most cases. You are going to lose more than 1/3 FS hell you might lose 2/3! And then F-4/F16 will be doing CAS on you with 10 to 15 minute response times vs 1 to 2 hours for you. Now you will certainly say you have a/c on station. But at 1000 miles distant how ong is your loiter time? You cant refuel close with the Patriot and Mig-25 around. Additionally you will have to keep a rotation to provide continuos coverage. So you are talking about maybe a dozen aircraft at a time doing CAS and maybe a dozen more on CAP? FS this is a suicide mission. But I will continue to pound your force into the ground until you decide this is beyond you. Until then "Allah Akbar"! Get used to hearing that because your POWs will!
 
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french stratege    RE:French fleet 2009   5/2/2005 4:29:33 PM
You would be crazy to place these capital assets in the Red sea. "unfortunately orage and ouragan will have been sold to argentina in 2006." Not yet decided it seems (rumors?).If it is done 2 ship less.But only deck for 2/4 helos. Jeanne not sold but in reserve it seems. If we lost these ships, remains 2 mistral, 2 foudre plus Batral and ferries/ro-ro. Maybe main helo effort from Chad. The third Horizon is in trial in 2009.After all can be efficient as crew are experienced and we have 3 months to practice. "You do not have enough assets to support two separate battle groups." It depends: 1: the Cdg is in mediterannée, close to Creta: maximum power to fight in Egypt north to crush 2EC combined with incoming raid from south and Corsica. remain 2 AA ship plus Djibouti air force protection for second group near Erytrée 2: a single group combining all assets near Erytrée: 4 AA frigate with medium SAM plus CdG aster15, plus 15 ships with Roland NG, plus SADRAL in numbers. Adding air force protection from Djibouti.
 
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gixxxerking    RE:sum=800 !!!!! re read properly please!!!!   5/2/2005 4:30:04 PM
My mistake I didnt see the comma! I will still show you how even this is unsustainable. But thanks for correcting me! P.S. To all participants and observers. Especially those who took part in the US vs EU thread. Notice how I dont insult FS personally or use bad lanquage. Rather I support my claims with fact. If the shoe fits, wear it!
 
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french stratege    armor   5/2/2005 4:35:25 PM
Explain me how EGypt can mobilized strong heavy armour in south ?Where come logistic chain ?Via Nile river? link road network. How few Patriot cover south? We need low flight profil at end only and tanks are jetisonned for Rafale. I'm sure Egypt can not send a strong armor force in the south without air superiority.We can choose attack profile form south, west , north west (Lybian sea border).
 
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gixxxerking    RE:French fleet 2009   5/2/2005 4:36:17 PM
"I suggest you need three AAW ships minimum to look after CDG for an extended period of time. Please clarify are they in Med or elsewhere. You would be crazy to place these capital assets in the Red sea. Therefore who is defending your amphibious battle group in the Red sea, there is no one left. You do not have enough assets to support two seperate battle groups." --tiff Good post tiff. FS read this carefully. It greatly simplifies my defensive plans. It also allows for a strong defense on the North Coast since the East is secure from the sea. I would tell you that two Horizon, even three close enough to support amphibious ops would not be enough protection. IIRC those ships carry 48 Aster 30 each? Using Styx and Harpoon first to Empty your magazines the Egyptian Air Force and Navy would likely penetrate and get catastrophic hits on the CdG and logistics ships from beyond Aster 15 range. If that happens game over.
 
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french stratege    RE:French fleet 2009   5/2/2005 4:44:55 PM
assuming we have 2 horizon instead of 3 (for antiship missile only), we have still 128 aster 30/15 plus 390 Crotale NG and hundred of rounds for SADRAL lucher (the total interservices stock of Mistral is about 7000 ).At least more than 800 missiles on ramp.
 
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