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Subject: How rank France in world power?
french stratege    4/23/2005 9:33:41 PM
o be a world power means to master a number of power tools and capacities: Economic power: France have fourth largest economy in world, even UK GNP seems on a par.But in fact France has a slightly bigger GDP in Puchasing Power Parity, a stronguer industry as its share in GNP is bigger, and especially in military usable industry (automotive, steel, microelectronic ...). Its trade balnce is positive unless US and UK.We benefit of Euro in sense that in a crisis, Euro would not go down like pound.Our financial market is less sensitive to crisis than UK. Then our saving, gold and currencies reserves are higher. France has 43 companies in the WORLD FORTUNE 500 ranking, one more than Germany and much more than UK or Italy.For example UK industry is stronguer than France in prescription drug but you can not use that for war. War potential: US: 100; Japan: 55, Germany ,40, France 25, UK 20. Diplomatic influence: should I said that French diplomatic network is world class and second to US only (with better skills).That our foreign aid is higher than UK or US in GNP %? That we have VETO right in UNO? That our cultural influence is world second after US? Thank to our industry we can substitute to US or Russia to deliver to a friend the whole set of weapons INDEPENDANTLY (from airfighters to subs via tank or C4ISR) and can shift power balance in any area.WE ARE THE SECOND WESTERN INDEPENDANT SUPPLIER AFTER US FOR CAPACITIES. We are the only Euro nation to have the full INDEPENDANT world reco network which is second to USA. RECO satellites, Telecom satellites (bandwith second to US), ELINT satellites, DSP satellites (in 2008), METEO satellites, spy ships, 30 ELINT ground station in word with 2 dedicated to spy US satelites, SPACE SURVEILLANCE RADAR. An unkown assets is that we are the only nation with US which can produce any currencies in world (to make false money in perfect imitation - we are the best in Europe for money technology) Sensitivity to energy imports: Our oil company is fourth in world and we have ROBUST assets in non middle east areas like Gabon, Angola etc...We produce our oil industry heavy equipment and our industry is world second of US in this field. Our nuclear energy production is world second in world and give us independance on electricity.Our influence in Africa secure minerals imports. Sensitivity to embargo: France has world class semiconductors facilities and hold the more advanced Europe wafer fab (joint venture between Motorola, SGS Thomson and Philips). Our auto maker build 7,5 million car /year, we have Airbus main designed office in France and so on...Our industry is pretty well balanced and produce almost everything at world class. Then we are the only Euro nation with a launch pad and Euro leader in Space.So we do not depend on US or other nation. We produce the second set of weapons after US and we do not depend of any supplier. Military technology: we are mastering everything form nukes to C4ISR with a technological level recognised by US as world second (while UK is close after).Of course neither Japan, Germany or China enjoy such an advantage. Nukes: our nuclear force are world THIRD and we produce precise counterforce weapons INDEPENDANTLY.Good second strike ability.400 warheads vs 200 for UK.(and we have stored weapons we can reactivate).3 SSBN can strike anywhere in the world. Military skills: our war academy is renown with US and UK.Israelis send some generals to perfectionate. Should I remember that Saudia Arabia asked French to crush rebellion in Mecka and not to US or UK?Saudis special forces and military stalled two weeks before asking France help.We did it in two days with 70 commandos leading Saudi commando (and using combat nerve gaz killing 2000 rebels). Mitary capacities. Second world force projection from 2007 to 2012 as a single Cdg with 3E2C and 40 Rafales, protected by 19 frigates with top ASW, 6 SSN and 3 Horizon with ASTER 30 outperform anything UK have: Indeed UK has 2 ACTIVE small carriers (with limited self protection and 60 harriers), they will not have any BVR fighters with FA2 retirement, and not antiship capacity since Harrier GR7/9 have NO RADAR!! UK air force has an handfull of non operational EF supported by 63 old Tornado ADV.No medium range airdefense for their troops. They have more SSN (soon reduced to 8 only) and military transport but we rely on civilian military prepared transports from french companies and our overseas bases to accumulate locally . ONLY US, UK, Russia and Japan has a sub force strong enough to put in danger our fleet. In fact we can crush any OPFOR airforce of 100 SU27/Mig29 (plus old MIGS or SU) without AWAC, ONLY relying on Cdg (even I agree a second would be better and needed). Most of nation do not have ENOUGH YAKHONT equivalent missiles to crush our naval force until our second carrier is operational. UK is unable to do that and in 2010 only 4 T45 will have entered service
 
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Ander320    RE:What has been decisively shown   5/1/2005 5:53:32 PM
"FS you seem to think airpower alone wins wars. Your Rafales can take off with Leos rolling across the runways. Not to mention MLRS and the huge German airforce. As for Nukes you would be nuking your own soil. And Germany could relatialte by hitting your nuke plants to release radiation." Well keep it realistic. If Germans cross the border more than a hundred kilometer we would nuke first their logistical base in germany with tactical nuke (not on our own soil) and if they bomb some nuke station so to put radiation in the air we would glass a dozen of their city with SSBM in the next 30 minutes.
 
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gixxxerking    RE:What has been decisively shown   5/1/2005 6:08:25 PM
Thats nice. Sure you can toss a nuke or two around big deal. The fact still stands that you could not hold a German armored assault even with nukes due to mobility armor and dispersal. And the German military was designed to survive Soviet nukes which were both more numerous and powerful. Do you see now that you are not quite as powerful as you thought? Ander320 I am not too familiar with you so dont take this too personal but a lot of people think of nukes aa an ultimate weapon when they are really nothing more than a large bomb. Against civilian targets like cities they are devastating to the local area of the explosion. Againct a point target they are also devastating. But a military division with armor is quite survivable. Withing 2 hours German units could be 100km into French territory in a suprise attack.
 
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gixxxerking    Brief reminder of what a inferior force is capable of.   5/1/2005 6:15:22 PM
link
 
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Jimme    RE:What has been decisively shown   5/1/2005 7:08:02 PM
Germany is Under the US nuke umbrella how would that play out in this situation?
 
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Godofgamblers    RE:WJR... we cross swords again on islamo-fascismWJR   5/1/2005 8:35:12 PM
sorry i couldn't comment on your post earlier, WJR. you are better positioned than i am to comment on such things and i wonder what our french posters would say re: your analysis of the french economy/culture and its direction in the next few years. by extrapolation, i infer that you would posit that france's quest for increased political/military influence as a quixotic delusion, as it based on a fragile house of cards: i.e. inefficient agrarian-based economy and self-denial. the quest is underpinned (again i am inferring your line of thought, pls correct me if i'm wrong) by a sort of nostalgia of days of glory in the past spurred on by (1) massive erosion of the social fabric from arab migration (2) economic pressures of globalization that france is not, you seem to be saying, able to handle. i am pro-french in that i strongly believe in "benefit driven" economies as opposed to "profit driven" economies. Namely, the purpose of a gov't is not to generate maximum profit like a corporation, but to generate max. benefit for its people. this is the french way and is the thinking behind the critique of the american "capitalisme sauvage". however, the question is whether they can hold their own in a profit driven world. profit driven economies are more competitive, since the lifestyle benefit driven economies afford their citizens is a "cost". in fact, many seem to view the arab communities as a disease, chipping away at the "benefit driven" society, the good lifestyle that the french have succeeded in cultivating. i hope your wrong, wjr, and that france isn't sort of like the castle in Poe's "Masque of the Red Death"; a last island of comfort before external forces cause its downfall. this line of argument can be dealt with by considering an analogous situation: is france in the same position britain was before Thatcher?
 
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wjr    RE:WJR... we cross swords again on islamo-fascismWJR   5/1/2005 10:38:24 PM
GoG, Your last line sums up things nicely. My deep concern is that France will not grasp the nettle before it is much too late. I, too, am a Francophile. I am furious that irresponsible governments, gross and inappropriate anti-Americanism (long before 9/11 and used much as the Arabs use it ? to avoid problem solving) and the corruption of the intellectual class will inevitably ruin a place that I love. The men who founded the U.S. were the intellectual children of the philosophes. While the legal foundation of the U.S. is English Common Law the raison d etat of America owes at least as much to France as to England. Best, wjr
 
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Godofgamblers    france /england before thatcher   5/1/2005 10:53:08 PM
but my last line was meant to be open, wjr. i'm not sure it's the case. i hope it isn't. i lived in MTL, canada, for a few years in the early nineties during my studies: you can see the same pressure on canada from the US. the US economy is simply more competitive as it spends less, per capita, on social services. the canadian benefit-oriented society is slowly but surely buckling under the strain of maintaining free health care and other benefits. it is simply not competitive in the long run. however, in the nordic countries they seem to have achieved a sustainable model. which is why i continue to hope that the french way is, if not overly idealistic (i.e. the 36-day work week and efforts to improve the quality of life), feasible. the current french social problems, high unemployment, immigration, sarkozy wanting to translate La Marseilleise into arabic, etc, may be simply transitory obstacles on the way to a better society.
 
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ex-98C    Egyptian analysis   5/1/2005 11:22:28 PM
This has been a truly entertaining thread, especially the posts on the Egyptian scenario. Stratege?s plans are positively Gixxian, and to see Gixxx hammering him on some of the logistic problems the French would face after ignoring the same problems in the EU Vs US thread, well it warms my heart. The first issue I have with Stratege are some of the numbers he was quoting, such as the 19 top of line ASW frigates I ask him to break them out because I only count 11 (and that?s being VERY generous with calling them top of the line). Also in his force build up for the invasion of Egypt he set his artillery force at 600 units, now the French army has 275 Auf1/Auf2, 60 MRLS launchers, and by 09 will have 72 CEASAR systems, the question is where do the other 200 systems come from? On the other side in 2009 the Egyptians would have almost 900 M1A1 tanks not 550, 1200-1500 M-60A3s and 6 E2Cs (Hawkeye 2000s actually) not four. Now on to FS?s actual strategies, he has named 3 potential bases for launching his attack Chad, Djibouti and Corsica. All three of these are approximately 1500 miles from the heart of Egypt, thus requiring that all aircraft operating over Egypt to require tanking assistance. Now as far as I can tell France only has 14 dedicated tankers and those are KC-135s which are long in the tooth. Even using buddy tanks the French Air Force would be hard pressed (IMHO) to put more than a hundred combat sorties a day over Egypt, unless a closer airfield could be utilized. The CdeG could augment that somewhat, but in order to be close enough to launch attacks it would have to maintain a significant portion of its air wing for fleet defense. Even assuming the AWACS can be killed as easily as FS believe (which I don?t) it would take a long time to eliminate the Egyptian air force, and even if that occurs the number of air to ground sorties is going to be very limited. I?m also a little confused about his Air ORBAT, he mention 320 Rafales/Mirage 2000s, 100 older Mirages and Super Es, and 200 Jaguars etc for CAS. He later mentioned 100 Mirage 2000s/Mirage F1s defending France. So by that count that gives a total of 720 planes. I know he says that they can pull them out of storage, but 200+ ready to go? With trained pilots? In three months? Also there is the matter of the breakout of the Mirage 2000s there are current 280 but correct me if I am wrong but the Ds and Ns (145 total) are strike aircraft with limited air to air capabilities, while the Bs, Cs, and -5s (135) are multi-role and along with the 70-80 Rafales make up the bulk of the air superiority platforms. So which mark of the Mirage 2000 is where? Next we move to Stratege?s plan of an amphibious, armoured, air assault on southern Egypt from Djibouti. I?m still trying to puzzle out how exactly this is going to work. I mean its 800+ miles from Djibouti to their target, which would require more than one pit stop for a laden helo. Let?s say they figure out a way for it to work and seize the hook. The problem is his assault ships at most carry a battalion of Armor. The rest of his 6 heavy Brigades are on civilian RoRos which require significant port infrastructure to load and unload, which as far as I can tell does not exist in his landing zone. Let?s say there is a port and the 500 tanks and 3000 apcs etc are unloaded and the force moves to take Aswan. That the supplies are able to come forward even though three months is not enough time to stockpile supplies for two heavy divisions in Djibouti not to mention the strain in moving the supplies further forward. Let?s say it all works though, the Egyptian air force is down, the French hold Aswan and are well supplied, what happens? Well the Egyptians establish defense several hundred miles north of Aswan, send in irregulars to harass the French forces and scream bloody murder in the UN, which grants even more clout if the French destroy the dam. So basically the French are squatting in an area of little strategic value, getting stung by insurgents, getting pounded politically for what? The attack from Chad is no better, just as far to hit a meaningful target and even worse logistical situation. Basing the attack from Corsica and France against the Egyptian Med coast makes the most sense as it allows the concentration of forces close to the supplies in France. Its only real chance for success is for a quick strike to seize a port and airfield, because without those the French are at an extreme disadvantage. Are the French stronger straight up? Absolutely, but an invasion of Egypt has little chance for success. Oh and Bluewings? I would and have said the same about the UK?s chances in a similar scenario.
 
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wjr    RE:france /england before thatcher   5/1/2005 11:36:21 PM
GoG, A Thatcher must be found for France. There is no other choice. Lifestyle will change ? I agree that this is not to the better in many cases. Also, I do not agree with you on the Nordic countries. In the mid 1960?s Swedish income per capita was about that of the U.S. Now it is about one sixth of the U.S. Things are very gradually getting worse there. Norwegian and Swedish psychology is unique, though, and I suspect that they will suck the last drop before the socialist cataclysm. Best, wjr
 
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Bluewings    RE:France / Egypt   5/2/2005 12:44:28 AM
I don 't know what FS is doing , but as I said I would use the Med Sea and Corsica to mass my Forces . It makes much more sens in my view . We could as well be ready in a month if we use only the Med Sea . I have no doubt that the French Navy can or push-back or annihilate the Egyptian Navy , especialy with the FAF over our Fleet . The hard bit is to secure Egypt coastline long enough to bring what we need to fight Egypt ground Forces . Another VERY important point to keep in mind concerning the Egyptian Abrams is the ammo used . They will face Leclerc mainly . Since 2002 , Egypt is using a 120mm tungsten sabot round from ATK Company, which is headquartered in Edina, Minn. . The round is the KE-WA1 , which is IN FACT the German DM-43A1 ! It is precisely the round used by France ~as well as the more modern DM-53~ to validate Leclerc 's armor . And you know what ? Leclerc is IMPERVIOUS to those rounds from the frontal arc . Totally . French Leclerc vs Egypt Abrams is of the same nature than US Abrams vs Irak T-72s , a bloodbath . Our 120mm OF120E1 APFSDS-DU can punch through 800mm@2km , OF120E2 880mm@2km and PROCIPAC is still classified but is even better ~same order than US M829A3 . Egyptian Abrams will look very messy very quickly ... On the Air to Air side , I do not believe that their fighters can deal with M2000-5/C/Bs and Rafale . See Egypt OOB there : link What is noticeable is the fact that most of their Interceptors are F-16C/D ~old Block~ and Mig-21s . Theirs M2000s Strikers have of course some Air capabilities but we can jam them as we see fit . Again , it looks like a possible bloodbath . More I look into Egypt OOB , more I think that France will get the upper hand in a matter of weeks . Sure , numbers have a quality of their own , but in this case I have serious doubts that Egypt will withstand the French attack . Their hardware is not good enough and their tactics are still "warsaw pact" stuff , according to Globalsecurity.org . France win . Cheers .
 
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