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Subject: How rank France in world power?
french stratege    4/23/2005 9:33:41 PM
o be a world power means to master a number of power tools and capacities: Economic power: France have fourth largest economy in world, even UK GNP seems on a par.But in fact France has a slightly bigger GDP in Puchasing Power Parity, a stronguer industry as its share in GNP is bigger, and especially in military usable industry (automotive, steel, microelectronic ...). Its trade balnce is positive unless US and UK.We benefit of Euro in sense that in a crisis, Euro would not go down like pound.Our financial market is less sensitive to crisis than UK. Then our saving, gold and currencies reserves are higher. France has 43 companies in the WORLD FORTUNE 500 ranking, one more than Germany and much more than UK or Italy.For example UK industry is stronguer than France in prescription drug but you can not use that for war. War potential: US: 100; Japan: 55, Germany ,40, France 25, UK 20. Diplomatic influence: should I said that French diplomatic network is world class and second to US only (with better skills).That our foreign aid is higher than UK or US in GNP %? That we have VETO right in UNO? That our cultural influence is world second after US? Thank to our industry we can substitute to US or Russia to deliver to a friend the whole set of weapons INDEPENDANTLY (from airfighters to subs via tank or C4ISR) and can shift power balance in any area.WE ARE THE SECOND WESTERN INDEPENDANT SUPPLIER AFTER US FOR CAPACITIES. We are the only Euro nation to have the full INDEPENDANT world reco network which is second to USA. RECO satellites, Telecom satellites (bandwith second to US), ELINT satellites, DSP satellites (in 2008), METEO satellites, spy ships, 30 ELINT ground station in word with 2 dedicated to spy US satelites, SPACE SURVEILLANCE RADAR. An unkown assets is that we are the only nation with US which can produce any currencies in world (to make false money in perfect imitation - we are the best in Europe for money technology) Sensitivity to energy imports: Our oil company is fourth in world and we have ROBUST assets in non middle east areas like Gabon, Angola etc...We produce our oil industry heavy equipment and our industry is world second of US in this field. Our nuclear energy production is world second in world and give us independance on electricity.Our influence in Africa secure minerals imports. Sensitivity to embargo: France has world class semiconductors facilities and hold the more advanced Europe wafer fab (joint venture between Motorola, SGS Thomson and Philips). Our auto maker build 7,5 million car /year, we have Airbus main designed office in France and so on...Our industry is pretty well balanced and produce almost everything at world class. Then we are the only Euro nation with a launch pad and Euro leader in Space.So we do not depend on US or other nation. We produce the second set of weapons after US and we do not depend of any supplier. Military technology: we are mastering everything form nukes to C4ISR with a technological level recognised by US as world second (while UK is close after).Of course neither Japan, Germany or China enjoy such an advantage. Nukes: our nuclear force are world THIRD and we produce precise counterforce weapons INDEPENDANTLY.Good second strike ability.400 warheads vs 200 for UK.(and we have stored weapons we can reactivate).3 SSBN can strike anywhere in the world. Military skills: our war academy is renown with US and UK.Israelis send some generals to perfectionate. Should I remember that Saudia Arabia asked French to crush rebellion in Mecka and not to US or UK?Saudis special forces and military stalled two weeks before asking France help.We did it in two days with 70 commandos leading Saudi commando (and using combat nerve gaz killing 2000 rebels). Mitary capacities. Second world force projection from 2007 to 2012 as a single Cdg with 3E2C and 40 Rafales, protected by 19 frigates with top ASW, 6 SSN and 3 Horizon with ASTER 30 outperform anything UK have: Indeed UK has 2 ACTIVE small carriers (with limited self protection and 60 harriers), they will not have any BVR fighters with FA2 retirement, and not antiship capacity since Harrier GR7/9 have NO RADAR!! UK air force has an handfull of non operational EF supported by 63 old Tornado ADV.No medium range airdefense for their troops. They have more SSN (soon reduced to 8 only) and military transport but we rely on civilian military prepared transports from french companies and our overseas bases to accumulate locally . ONLY US, UK, Russia and Japan has a sub force strong enough to put in danger our fleet. In fact we can crush any OPFOR airforce of 100 SU27/Mig29 (plus old MIGS or SU) without AWAC, ONLY relying on Cdg (even I agree a second would be better and needed). Most of nation do not have ENOUGH YAKHONT equivalent missiles to crush our naval force until our second carrier is operational. UK is unable to do that and in 2010 only 4 T45 will have entered service
 
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wjr    RE:How rank France in world power?   4/24/2005 8:29:13 PM
Bluewings, I would love to hear what you base your prediction upon. Most data that I have seen indicates a continuing decline in the French economy and a general shift of the "weight" of Europe east. The rise of India (much more likely than the continued rise of China at this point) will also significantly impact things. Without the EU playing support for France -- less and less likely -- the country will slip into a pleasant dotage if and only if it can solve the Islamic question. Best, wjr
 
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Bluewings    RE:How rank France in world power?   4/24/2005 8:49:03 PM
Quote : "Bluewings , I would love to hear what you base your prediction upon" --> Hope . What FS said is a reminder for everybody who thinks that France is on a slippery slope . We 're not . Sure , we 'll say NO to Europe ~rightly for now~ and that will give us at least 5 "spare" years to pump money into our economy instead of EU 's . Cheers .
 
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Godofgamblers    RE:How rank France in world power?WJR   4/24/2005 8:49:10 PM
i respect your views on france very much, wjr, for various reasons, but here i differ with you. i don't think france is slipping into a period of old age "dotage", or a state of "anec-dotage", as i already am he he but rather, i see the coming years in france as very dynamic. the islamic problem will actually be a catalyst if anything for france to reassert itself or redefine itself; i don't see it as a brake or an obstacle but rather as a galvinizing force. this is a dynamic moment: the EU, islamic immigration, france's role as a "counterweight", all these things are coming together at once and we shall see, in my view, some interesting things from france soon.... and not a complacent "dotage" as you suggest. all the best, wjr
 
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ex-98C    Stratege's rankings   4/24/2005 11:23:58 PM
France?s Ranking Economic Power: Its certainly a top ten power, though forth might be pushing it a bit. Most estimates have the UK ever so slightly ahead (US, Japan, Germany a given). India and China are also ranked higher in some estimates. What is the source on that War Potential Ratio? Or is it your own estimation? Diplomatic Influence: France?s network is second only to the US? Its cultural influence is also second only to the US? I think you vastly underestimate the influence that the UK has in diplomatic circles and its influence in the world. It is not as obviously as France?s due to the blurring of the Anglo-American culture in many respects. I could go on, buts it?s mostly nitpick type stuff. France does have a claim on the second spot, along with Russia, China, and the UK. India and Japan have the potential to join the group in the near future but are lacking capacity or will currently. I did not realize that the State department ranked world powers could you provide a link Stratege?
 
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EW3    RE:How about in the future - say 20 years from now   4/24/2005 11:31:23 PM
Considering the growth of Japan ane eastern Eurpoean countries and china etc. Where will France be?
 
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Godofgamblers    RE:How about in the future - say 20 years from now   4/25/2005 12:04:55 AM
in economics this is called the low base effect. indonesia has been on a roller coaster of ups and downs but in reality, the standard of living has not changed at all for 95% of the people. these growth rates are meaningless for developing countries; they measure the fortunes of a small group of urban bourgeois. most of india and china's people will be living in the exact same conditions. look at the growth figures after the benelux experiment. these are the key figures for the EU; the future looks bright indeed.
 
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coolboyjay    RE:coolboyjay : Striking India   4/25/2005 12:36:16 AM
Hmm.. I would like to put in some facts for you. India has 50 su 30 mki's. which would be around the 70 mark in 2008. Around that time india would have 2 aircraft carriers with the induction of Admiral Gorshkov into its navy. Now about the Andaman debacle, check out. there is an Air Force base in the Andamans. So capturing that would not be a cakewalk. Maldives is possible. But the crux of the matter is that France, if wants minimal damage would have to use ICBM's, or it would be in trouble and would get a bloody nose. but I guess that would not be required as India and france have good relations. And yes, i hope we buy those M2000-5 's from u. ;)
 
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Roman    More on rankings for France    4/25/2005 1:33:03 AM
Rankings for France: Population: 20th GDP PPP: 7 Land Forces: 17th (from Strategypage database - reliability in question) Naval Forces: 6th (from Strategypage database - reliability in question) Nuclear Forces: 4th Intangibles*: 3rd? Non-weighted average ranking for France: 9-10 *Independent industries, relative energy independence (due to nuclear power), seat at the security council, diplomatic/political position, etc., etc. Of course, there is also the issue of Muslim immigration and large Muslim populations in France with dubious (at best) loyalty and the potential to be a fifth column. This would definitely decrease the French ranking by quite a lot (and by an ever increasing amount), but it is diffucult to incorporate this into rankings, so I have left it out thus far.
 
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Roman    War Potential    4/25/2005 1:52:40 AM
Hey French Strategist, despite the fact that it is very important, I could not include war potential in my rankings since I have no idea where I can find any numerical figures for it. Where did you get your figures (US: 100, Japan: 55, Germany: 40, France: 25, UK: 20) from?
 
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GOP    RE:How rank France in world power? Bluewings   4/25/2005 11:57:59 AM
I have to disagree with you, and not because I have anything against France, but because China and India are emerging. In 2010, it will look like this #1. USA #2. China #3. India beyond that, I really have no idea. Possibly France (the most likely to take the #4 spot by 2010), possibly Russia will hold on to it, possibly the UK, possibly even Germany
 
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