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Subject: How rank France in world power?
french stratege    4/23/2005 9:33:41 PM
o be a world power means to master a number of power tools and capacities: Economic power: France have fourth largest economy in world, even UK GNP seems on a par.But in fact France has a slightly bigger GDP in Puchasing Power Parity, a stronguer industry as its share in GNP is bigger, and especially in military usable industry (automotive, steel, microelectronic ...). Its trade balnce is positive unless US and UK.We benefit of Euro in sense that in a crisis, Euro would not go down like pound.Our financial market is less sensitive to crisis than UK. Then our saving, gold and currencies reserves are higher. France has 43 companies in the WORLD FORTUNE 500 ranking, one more than Germany and much more than UK or Italy.For example UK industry is stronguer than France in prescription drug but you can not use that for war. War potential: US: 100; Japan: 55, Germany ,40, France 25, UK 20. Diplomatic influence: should I said that French diplomatic network is world class and second to US only (with better skills).That our foreign aid is higher than UK or US in GNP %? That we have VETO right in UNO? That our cultural influence is world second after US? Thank to our industry we can substitute to US or Russia to deliver to a friend the whole set of weapons INDEPENDANTLY (from airfighters to subs via tank or C4ISR) and can shift power balance in any area.WE ARE THE SECOND WESTERN INDEPENDANT SUPPLIER AFTER US FOR CAPACITIES. We are the only Euro nation to have the full INDEPENDANT world reco network which is second to USA. RECO satellites, Telecom satellites (bandwith second to US), ELINT satellites, DSP satellites (in 2008), METEO satellites, spy ships, 30 ELINT ground station in word with 2 dedicated to spy US satelites, SPACE SURVEILLANCE RADAR. An unkown assets is that we are the only nation with US which can produce any currencies in world (to make false money in perfect imitation - we are the best in Europe for money technology) Sensitivity to energy imports: Our oil company is fourth in world and we have ROBUST assets in non middle east areas like Gabon, Angola etc...We produce our oil industry heavy equipment and our industry is world second of US in this field. Our nuclear energy production is world second in world and give us independance on electricity.Our influence in Africa secure minerals imports. Sensitivity to embargo: France has world class semiconductors facilities and hold the more advanced Europe wafer fab (joint venture between Motorola, SGS Thomson and Philips). Our auto maker build 7,5 million car /year, we have Airbus main designed office in France and so on...Our industry is pretty well balanced and produce almost everything at world class. Then we are the only Euro nation with a launch pad and Euro leader in Space.So we do not depend on US or other nation. We produce the second set of weapons after US and we do not depend of any supplier. Military technology: we are mastering everything form nukes to C4ISR with a technological level recognised by US as world second (while UK is close after).Of course neither Japan, Germany or China enjoy such an advantage. Nukes: our nuclear force are world THIRD and we produce precise counterforce weapons INDEPENDANTLY.Good second strike ability.400 warheads vs 200 for UK.(and we have stored weapons we can reactivate).3 SSBN can strike anywhere in the world. Military skills: our war academy is renown with US and UK.Israelis send some generals to perfectionate. Should I remember that Saudia Arabia asked French to crush rebellion in Mecka and not to US or UK?Saudis special forces and military stalled two weeks before asking France help.We did it in two days with 70 commandos leading Saudi commando (and using combat nerve gaz killing 2000 rebels). Mitary capacities. Second world force projection from 2007 to 2012 as a single Cdg with 3E2C and 40 Rafales, protected by 19 frigates with top ASW, 6 SSN and 3 Horizon with ASTER 30 outperform anything UK have: Indeed UK has 2 ACTIVE small carriers (with limited self protection and 60 harriers), they will not have any BVR fighters with FA2 retirement, and not antiship capacity since Harrier GR7/9 have NO RADAR!! UK air force has an handfull of non operational EF supported by 63 old Tornado ADV.No medium range airdefense for their troops. They have more SSN (soon reduced to 8 only) and military transport but we rely on civilian military prepared transports from french companies and our overseas bases to accumulate locally . ONLY US, UK, Russia and Japan has a sub force strong enough to put in danger our fleet. In fact we can crush any OPFOR airforce of 100 SU27/Mig29 (plus old MIGS or SU) without AWAC, ONLY relying on Cdg (even I agree a second would be better and needed). Most of nation do not have ENOUGH YAKHONT equivalent missiles to crush our naval force until our second carrier is operational. UK is unable to do that and in 2010 only 4 T45 will have entered service
 
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Godofgamblers    great thread... but WJR...   4/29/2005 7:44:17 PM
WJR, i tend to disagree with your view on the dismal science. it has became simple rhetorics. as much as i dislike stalin, i do appreciate his arguing style when confronted with a rival he would not immediately answer but ask, "who are you working for? whose payroll are you on?". and that is really the key. more and more economists start with certain axioms which are dictated from above then construct a model searching for stats and facts that underpin their model, ignoring anything which does not. sadly, this is also the case of environmental science where every researcher is on the payroll to prove or disprove a trend, global warming, for example. an economist is someone who can tell you why the forecast he made today didn't come true yesterday. everything else is rhetoric. you are right, an economist would get p*** off with me for saying that, but it is true. i have worked with economists and they are bought men. you are right that in something as limited and quantitative as an economy is harder to 'twist' but it is still possible, esp. since we are discussing an economy in a context: i.e. war potential and independence. one economist would limit the discussion to GNP and not GDP; another would strip out exports since an export dependent economy is vulnerability in times of war, etc. There are many ways to pick and choose the "important" stats. always a pleasure to debate with you, WJR. and we'll see what our friend Worcester has to say soon, i'm sure.
 
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Godofgamblers    WJR... we cross swords again on islamo-fascism   4/29/2005 7:49:56 PM
i totally agree with you that calls of racism when attacking jihadism and terrorism are displaced. luckily, in indonesia there is no Political Correctness so i can say whatever i want without fear of losing my job or fear of offending some blind self-appointed cleric in a cave somewhere when i say these people are rabid animals that should be put down. but in fact deep down they are not rabid animals but like economists (not that i hate economists, simply to link our two discussion threads he he), they are on a payroll and make a living on hate. so i agree with you that bashing them is not racism, wjr; however, the french bashing, such as one poster calling France a nation of 'whores', IS an ugly slur that is totally unfounded and out of place on this forum. however, dummnutzer stole my fire and has already addressed this more eloquently than i could.
 
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french stratege    gxxx typographic error   4/29/2005 8:29:41 PM
"Of course Leclerc are so so superior than a M1A2 but Egyptian have older versions." You have to read : "Of course Leclerc are NOT so superior than a M1A2 but Egyptian have older versions." And I can add our C4ISR is a magnitude superior. Our night vision device are far more numerous. You don't understand our artillery potential:accuracy, fast reaction time and system like Orchidée which is French ASTOR or E8. A column of Egyptian tanks detected by Orchidée 200 miles away then hit by air or by BONUS SMART shells 30 km away. That we have massive number of cluster shell like Ogre also. Tank is only a piece of game. You fail to undertsand that once air superiority is lost, your tank while still helping, are not the main factor in the balance. And for sure Egyptian will lost air superiority. Do you think that Egyptian would win against Israeli air force? So how they could win agaisnt French air force? Egyptian forces are good to fight in the Egyptian /Israeli border and Nile delta not to fight in the south where infrastructure is unexistant. Egyptian desert is barren land without trees to cover your forces. Did you check how many F16 Egyptians have? Of course in such a war our losses would be far superior on ground than US in Iraq. To say that Egyptians would be able to block red sea is a little short: we have minesweepers and pretty good ASW. They can not cover all their border and reinforce all red sea shore and med shores.You forgot conveniently that our massive superiority in helos would allow us a much more mobility in an area where road are very scarce. Our fleet of air transport can easily tranport 4000 tons per day on such a short distance to fuel our divisions. It is a long road if done by road rather by sea , but not much longuer than in Iraq and in an area less densily populated than in Iraq. Try better. PS: did France provided Iraqi intelligence (especially satellites) in Iraq war II? If US is able to scale up, so France also. In four year we can field massive forces.Did you see pre WW2 curves about production? An aircraft carrier can be build in two years!We build the 120 000 tons Queen Mary 2 in two years in peace time, in "Chantier de l'Atlantique".Our infrastructure is still massive in shipbuilding even it is used at maybe 10%. Egypt is within range of our Djibouti , Chad and Corsica airbases.
 
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gixxxerking    RE:gxxx typographic error -Forgiven FS   4/29/2005 9:47:03 PM
FS I accept that you could built CVN/CV of CdG or Foch type in two years if you had to. FS I accept French C4ISR, training and some equipment Superiority. FS I accept that Djibouti , Chad and Corsica airbases is in range. But Egypt has massive terrain, logistical and numerical advantages. And the difference between FAF and IAF is proximity. "PS: did France provided Iraqi intelligence (especially satellites) in Iraq war II?" --FS You did worse. You provided economic aid to a known enemy. You also spawned a large portion of the anti-US sentiment and denied U.S. the legitimacy of the the world body. These factors had far more devastating effects on us than any ELINT to Iraqis which we could have destroyed with the first TLAM sortie. With French support it is likely Saddam would have conceded prior to hostilities. So you cannot be suprised that US would provide ELINT/SIGINT data and logistical support to Egypt, a valued ally. The US would also not be pleased to have a nation it privately views as an enemy with control of the Suez. We didnt allow it during the "Suez Crisis". We wouldnt allow it now. And war by proxy is the USA specialty.
 
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Agammenon    Is the French economy healthy?   4/29/2005 9:57:13 PM
Reading this article, it would seem they have problems. link
 
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wjr    RE:WJR... we cross swords again on islamo-fascism   4/29/2005 9:59:13 PM
GoG, I agree with you about the French bashing. France is not a country of whores. Only its? politicians are. But, then again, most politicians everywhere are of that persuasion. To a great extent you are correct about economists. One of the most prominent examples of this perversion is Paul Krugman who writes for the New York Times. Just about everything that he writes proves to be wrong (and not just about economics) so if Krugman predicts it you should bet the opposite. On the other hand and assuming that you can find an honest one (is this like Diogenes? Do you have a lamp?) then, some sort of more or less objective criteria can be developed to measure relative economies. A universal form of this would be difficult as it would need to measure very great differences to allow comparison. Several years ago I gave a lecture at the Indian Institute of Science in Bangalore. On the same lecture schedule was an economist from the U.S. who was a Nobel winner and I was very pleased to have lunch with him. In our conversation the measure of economies and relative ?advancement? of technical economies came up. I was struck by how carefully he defined the difference between manufacturing complex devices and the manufacture of high technology devices. An automobile or a CD player is a complex device while a CPU is a high tech device per his definition. A good example of this is how one measures the Chinese economy as opposed to, say, the U.S. economy. In terms of mass manufacturing of complex devices that require significant labor component it is clear that China has an advantage for now. In terms of high tech devices then the U.S., Japan or Taiwan are much advantaged. Part of this is some sort of measure of the R&D component (in his terms the ?technical innovator quotient?) and the ability of the economy to accept the radical changes imposed by periodic technical revolutions. Thus, China, today, has a ?crust? economy that makes it only a component in a larger manufacturing scheme where the innovative element is, largely, elsewhere. It is thus much weaker than it first appears. This is why the rigidity of the CCP is so significant. Western Europe, on the other hand, should be considered in the high tech category and is today. However, cultural and political issues ? the Social Democratic welfare state in particular ? presents very much of a frictional force in the rapid evolution required to maintain some sort of high tech status. The French detest the Anglo-Saxon Social Darwinism that is evident in both the UK and U.S. economies. France is still, basically, an agrarian state with a veneer of high tech industry and a rapidly declining complex manufacturing economy. The French body politic has chosen lifestyle to competitiveness and even Chirac will not change that overnight. The French people are absolutely correct in their desire to reject the EU constitution, by the way, as truly open competition for both goods and services within the expanded EU would be catastrophic for the French economy. Insulating the French economy means continued inefficient manufacturing and international non-competitiveness but guarantees a much slower decline. Remember, the two key French exports are Airbus aircraft and wine. Wine has been in double digit declines for a number of years (the upper end, low volume wines are stable but the vin de pays types are being killed by more efficient non-French producers) and Airbus is about to enter a very tough time (in my opinion) as 1) the 380 will prove to be a dog commercially and 2) their mid level aircraft are now at a severe efficiency and technologic disadvantage when compared to the 787. While I love the French lifestyle I recognize that it is a transient and fleeting thing. Immigrants, economy and the French zeitgeist doom it. The only question is how long. This, by the way, is not an unsupported thought. Ironically much of this particular rant could have been copied from Le Monde on one of its? more gloomy days. Best, wjr
 
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Agammenon    RE:Is the French economy healthy?   4/29/2005 10:25:42 PM
It would seem, that if both Britain and France continue on their divergent paths, two decades from now they'll be worlds apart. From a standard of living perspective, to a power projetion capability. France won't be in the same league.
 
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gixxxerking    Logistics -FS   4/29/2005 10:28:32 PM
just 400 Leclerc WILL REQUIRE MINIMUM, 500 tons of fuel a day unless they are parked and not used. On offense you will have to refuel EVERY 250 to 300 miles. Thats another 500 tons. If you make contact, then you have to move ammunition. And your IFV/APCs, wheeled vehicles, generators will need diesel as well. Your men will need food and ammunition. As your Leclercs take damage and break down for no other reason than because they are tanks. You will have to bring in replacement parts as well. Your artillery will also be in high demand. Then there is all the other gear associated with the rear that will have to move as you make progress. Not to mention the flow of wounded, EPWs and damaged equipment that will have to flow in the other direction. This is in addition to all the air mobile and helo borne assets you mention. And we havent even discussed the support required for your aviation assets. Moving 4000T of fuel a day is not possible over the distances you mention during conflict. Considering that fact. How could you even dream of sustaining this force: "500 Leclerc and updated AMX30B2 and 300 AMX10RC, 660 auf1/Caesar/MRLS, 3000 IFV most wheeled" --fs Its concievable logistically! But in addition to all this. You need the trucks to move all these supplies. FS, as a former Support Platton Leader, S4 and Troop XO in US Armored Cavalry I can tell you that logistics will kill your operation before the first shot is fired! To even consider combat, these materials have to flow uninterrupted and quickly. Normally I let people slide on logistics but when its this egregious I have to attack it. You might also want to take a look at how many RC-135 you have. Not enough for long range sustained bombing or CAP. France has a good military. But deployed in the mubers you speak of so far from home on an operation of this scale you would be overwhelmed in Egypt. You have too many vulnerabilities, even in 2009, to invade Egypt. Any independent analysis of the facts I have presented will tell you this is a defeat for you.
 
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wjr    RE:Logistics -FS   4/29/2005 10:32:58 PM
FS, I think that old GIXXer really has you by the nads on this one, guy. Best, wjr
 
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gixxxerking    Anti-Ship -FS   4/29/2005 10:39:23 PM
Egyptian Harpoons out range Aster 30 which will allow launch system to escape. CdG does not carry enough fighters to deal with a large well coordinated multiple axis attack using Harpoons. No doubt you will stop a lot of missile. Maybe even the entire first wave. But subsequent attacks would leave you vulnerable. This means CdG has to stay close to Ground based fighters. Djibouti possibly. But this would be your undoing because you have to enter Gulf of Aden or Red Sea to strike. SSKs and mines are there in addition to unclear IFF situation and little manuver room. And you only have few Horizon Frigates. Who will protect the ro/ro's and troop ships? I know who will be hunting them. The CdG may just be able to survive well away from the shore. But then what good would it be?
 
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