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Subject: How rank France in world power?
french stratege    4/23/2005 9:33:41 PM
o be a world power means to master a number of power tools and capacities: Economic power: France have fourth largest economy in world, even UK GNP seems on a par.But in fact France has a slightly bigger GDP in Puchasing Power Parity, a stronguer industry as its share in GNP is bigger, and especially in military usable industry (automotive, steel, microelectronic ...). Its trade balnce is positive unless US and UK.We benefit of Euro in sense that in a crisis, Euro would not go down like pound.Our financial market is less sensitive to crisis than UK. Then our saving, gold and currencies reserves are higher. France has 43 companies in the WORLD FORTUNE 500 ranking, one more than Germany and much more than UK or Italy.For example UK industry is stronguer than France in prescription drug but you can not use that for war. War potential: US: 100; Japan: 55, Germany ,40, France 25, UK 20. Diplomatic influence: should I said that French diplomatic network is world class and second to US only (with better skills).That our foreign aid is higher than UK or US in GNP %? That we have VETO right in UNO? That our cultural influence is world second after US? Thank to our industry we can substitute to US or Russia to deliver to a friend the whole set of weapons INDEPENDANTLY (from airfighters to subs via tank or C4ISR) and can shift power balance in any area.WE ARE THE SECOND WESTERN INDEPENDANT SUPPLIER AFTER US FOR CAPACITIES. We are the only Euro nation to have the full INDEPENDANT world reco network which is second to USA. RECO satellites, Telecom satellites (bandwith second to US), ELINT satellites, DSP satellites (in 2008), METEO satellites, spy ships, 30 ELINT ground station in word with 2 dedicated to spy US satelites, SPACE SURVEILLANCE RADAR. An unkown assets is that we are the only nation with US which can produce any currencies in world (to make false money in perfect imitation - we are the best in Europe for money technology) Sensitivity to energy imports: Our oil company is fourth in world and we have ROBUST assets in non middle east areas like Gabon, Angola etc...We produce our oil industry heavy equipment and our industry is world second of US in this field. Our nuclear energy production is world second in world and give us independance on electricity.Our influence in Africa secure minerals imports. Sensitivity to embargo: France has world class semiconductors facilities and hold the more advanced Europe wafer fab (joint venture between Motorola, SGS Thomson and Philips). Our auto maker build 7,5 million car /year, we have Airbus main designed office in France and so on...Our industry is pretty well balanced and produce almost everything at world class. Then we are the only Euro nation with a launch pad and Euro leader in Space.So we do not depend on US or other nation. We produce the second set of weapons after US and we do not depend of any supplier. Military technology: we are mastering everything form nukes to C4ISR with a technological level recognised by US as world second (while UK is close after).Of course neither Japan, Germany or China enjoy such an advantage. Nukes: our nuclear force are world THIRD and we produce precise counterforce weapons INDEPENDANTLY.Good second strike ability.400 warheads vs 200 for UK.(and we have stored weapons we can reactivate).3 SSBN can strike anywhere in the world. Military skills: our war academy is renown with US and UK.Israelis send some generals to perfectionate. Should I remember that Saudia Arabia asked French to crush rebellion in Mecka and not to US or UK?Saudis special forces and military stalled two weeks before asking France help.We did it in two days with 70 commandos leading Saudi commando (and using combat nerve gaz killing 2000 rebels). Mitary capacities. Second world force projection from 2007 to 2012 as a single Cdg with 3E2C and 40 Rafales, protected by 19 frigates with top ASW, 6 SSN and 3 Horizon with ASTER 30 outperform anything UK have: Indeed UK has 2 ACTIVE small carriers (with limited self protection and 60 harriers), they will not have any BVR fighters with FA2 retirement, and not antiship capacity since Harrier GR7/9 have NO RADAR!! UK air force has an handfull of non operational EF supported by 63 old Tornado ADV.No medium range airdefense for their troops. They have more SSN (soon reduced to 8 only) and military transport but we rely on civilian military prepared transports from french companies and our overseas bases to accumulate locally . ONLY US, UK, Russia and Japan has a sub force strong enough to put in danger our fleet. In fact we can crush any OPFOR airforce of 100 SU27/Mig29 (plus old MIGS or SU) without AWAC, ONLY relying on Cdg (even I agree a second would be better and needed). Most of nation do not have ENOUGH YAKHONT equivalent missiles to crush our naval force until our second carrier is operational. UK is unable to do that and in 2010 only 4 T45 will have entered service
 
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johnboy    world power   4/29/2005 4:02:21 PM
That wasn't meant to BE harsh. I am simply point out that we have differing definitions, and according to his only the US qualifies. Besides, if the definition is the ability to go around the world, attack anyone, destroy their military power in conventional battle and occupy their homeland... well, there is a whole list of countries that the US can't do that to either! If an example of the criteria is "France isn't a world power because they can't defeat and occupy Egypt, come as you are," then I'm going to say "the US isn't a world power either, because it can't defeat and occupy France come as you are!" Or Russia, China, Japan, the UK, Germany...
 
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gixxxerking    RE:world power   4/29/2005 4:25:23 PM
"If an example of the criteria is "France isn't a world power because they can't defeat and occupy Egypt, come as you are," then I'm going to say "the US isn't a world power either, because it can't defeat and occupy France come as you are!" Or Russia, China, Japan, the UK, Germany..." Yes it could, and this isnt a come as your are fight. FS SPECIFICALLY stated 2009 for his ill advised venture. A 4 year US build up would create a military of unimaginable power. Not that we dont already have that now. And we arent even in a wartime economy...lol To have an objective discussion you have to remove the anti-US bias and accept some truth first.
 
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johnboy    RE:world power   4/29/2005 4:35:01 PM
1) I haven't read the entire thread. I was responding to the initial post. 2) 4 year build up? Fine. France could PASTE Egypt with four years to prepare. The only reason France couldn't do it today is because while France's ability to project power is limited, Egypt's defensive power is not inconsiderable. France can easily do a Falklands + scenario, but not much more. However, given the time to build up to any reasonable degree, this ceases to be an issue. France can hit Egypt. Egypt can't hit France. All France needs to do is hit Egypt hard enough. I'm sorry, but any realistic appreciation that doesn't conclude that is a Francophobic fantasy. I AM an American, thank you very much. I am merely a realist. I don't sell other nations short.
 
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gixxxerking    FS -more pain and suffering awaits you   4/29/2005 4:47:18 PM
FS, I am glad you turning away from technology and to tactics. While your tactics and numbers are flawed they do represent an improvement for you. I am also pleased to see that you have conceded the Red Sea. Unfortunately for you it, along with the Suez Canal, is critical for your southern prong and untimately your success. Djibouti is useless to you unless you posses a means to move logistics in huge numbers to the front. Remember you are taking on a foe more powerful than 1991 Iraq with less force so you will need tremendous amounts of ammo to sustain the kill rations your small force will need to survive. The only way to do this is by sea. The Gulf of Aden and the Red Sea are going to be the hunting grounds of Egyptian SSKs and mines. Also WHAT YOU MUST consider it that US Military assets in Somalia, Saudi Arabia and Yemen WILL BE TRACKING every movement you make. You have to assume this information will be compramised to the Egyptians as it was in the Suez Incedent. Also Submerged contacts will not be limited to Egyptian. With Saudi Air Bases to the East you will have severe issues of identifying targets. Is that a USAF F-16 out of Saudi Arabia, And Israeli or Egyptian one? Your BVR advantages could be nullified by politics. The same applies to Sea Targets. As to the issue of logistics, to move supplies from Djibouti to Egypt you will have to move over 800+ miles of Eritrean and Sudanese territory. Assuming they would allow that unopposed, lol, you could not sustain the tempo of resupply operations over that distance which would only increase as your ground forces moved north. The mountainous terrain will do much to slow you also. Well placed obstacles, mines and artillery will make this even more difficult. Mix in Egyptian infantry, insurgents and tanks for even more difficulty. Serbia proved how survivable Armor and infantry can be in these environments against PGMs. You mentioned air mobile troops from Djbouti. How about hidden mobile SAMs(SA-6) and MANPADS in the mountainous South East. The PR value of a troop transport full of French soldiers being shot down makes my mouth water. You would have to be insane not to have aggressive SEAD in that region first. At 800+ miles away over hostile territory that means only the CdG could conduct that mission. And in the Red Sea or Gulf of Aden that would be a "gift from Allah" to the Romeos and F-16/Harpoons. Not to mention Mines. And the CdG air wing is too small to fight off the Egyptian Airforce that close to shore, period. Especially in such a complicated BVR environment. But fortunately for France would never happen because your Generals and Admirals would tell you that sailing around Africa would take far too long to keep the supplies flowing to the troops and make for some excellent oppurtunity to ambush a supply ship using SSK or Aircraft. P-3 has very long legs you know. Perhaps you should call off the attack or come from the north coast. But I assure you I have an equally crushing defeat should you try that!
 
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gixxxerking    RE:world power   4/29/2005 4:54:39 PM
"1) I haven't read the entire thread. I was responding to the initial post. 2) 4 year build up? Fine. France could PASTE Egypt with four years to prepare. The only reason France couldn't do it today is because while France's ability to project power is limited, Egypt's defensive power is not inconsiderable. France can easily do a Falklands + scenario, but not much more. However, given the time to build up to any reasonable degree, this ceases to be an issue. France can hit Egypt. Egypt can't hit France. All France needs to do is hit Egypt hard enough. I'm sorry, but any realistic appreciation that doesn't conclude that is a Francophobic fantasy. I AM an American, thank you very much. I am merely a realist. I don't sell other nations short." --johnboy 1) You really should so you can understand why you are wrong. 2) No the French could not paste Egypt with 4 years prep. In four years France would not even have a 2nd CVN! To do that would require a military the size of a superpower. Egypt could very well hit France and soon I will show you more ways how thats possible. Again read the thread so you know what going on. You really need to detail your arguements in these vs scenarios because otherwise its simply an opinion. And I can tell you its a rather bad one. But as an American, you are entitled to it. Ted Kennedy certainly is! Now just sit back and watch as I pound this silly France=Superpower idea into the ground.
 
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Ehran    RE:world power   4/29/2005 4:55:59 PM
you know given the complexity of modern weapon systems i am not sure 4 years is really long enough to make a significant difference to the US armed forces. while you can run existing production lines at higher rates and triple shift them etc that still doesn't amount to all that many more tanks apcs etc. certainly wouldn't do a lot for the navy as there are only a dozen or so yards up to doing naval work nowadays so you have to figure the navy is maybe two dozen ships to the good in 4 years. you would have built up your infrastructure nicely in 4 years and be starting to see dividends from that but i think the actual gain wouldn't be as much as you think. take f15's for instance. there is only one line making them currently which limits how many you can crank out by working it 24/7 and what would it take to set up more lines and generate the bits and pieces to run them 24/7 and that's a trivial exercise compared to creating a naval yard from scratch.
 
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gixxxerking    Bluewings   4/29/2005 5:21:24 PM
kind of hate those threads X vs Y but I believe France can win against Egypt in a conventional War . As an Ex SpecOps , I cannot really make up a plan as it requires more than my knowledge , but it is feasible . The key ~in my view~ is to secure the Seas , Med and Red , as the main threat to the French Forces would come from underwater . I would probably focus a lot more on the Med Sea rather than on the Red Sea , because it is closer and its our play-ground ~ we know Her well . ----Good Idea to stay out of the Red Sea A wise move in my sens would be to send our Submarine fleet to hunt down any Egyptian Sub in the Med while setting up strong checkpoints at Gibraltar , then informed everybody that the French Fleet will open fire at any Ship wanting to reach Egypt . During that War , France will police the Med Sea . Usual trades will be allowed to go through and out . ----6 improved Rubis might have a hard time off the Egyptian coast while ASW ships, 10+ SSK, Mines all under Egyptian air cover are hunting them back. BUt it is what you would have to do to land on the North coast. ----The USN would object and there is no argueing with that. Secondly , we try to make sure that the Egyptian Navy Sea-space is restricted to a minimum by means of mines , heavy Hunter Killer Sub patrols , ASW and firepower at Sea . During all this time , usual build-up at Djibouti as well as insertion of SpecOps ~here I come ;-)~ . ----Djibouti explained in detail here: link Commando Hubert Divers will be tasked to breach underwater Harbor defenses and mine/sink a Ship or two before to try to wreck havoc on harbor Coms facilities . Air Force Specials ~CPA10~ will do their usual , recon , costal C4 and Air Defenses , trying to disturb as much as they can . RIMA and RPIMA will be inserted too and gather intels for SEAD Strikes . ----Good initiative. No way to predict the results as Eqypt will be alert to it. Remember Andy Mcnab in Iraq and Delta in Somalia. Local Air Superiority over the Fleet will be maintained during all the conflict , allowing for pre-planned heavy Air strikes composed of Rafales and M2000Bs under AWACS coverage . A Fleet of Tankers will be split in between Djibouti and Corsica , allowing for in-flight refueling , seconded by Super Etendars . ---Within youe means as long as you stay away from the coast. (See French Stratege 's list for material/Ships employed , and numbers) We hope that after 2 to 3 weeks of conflict ~probably less in fact~ , Egyptian assets in the Med Sea are or destroyed or kept at bay in bad shape . France might have lost 1 or 2 Subs , a couple of Fregates and a handfull of Aircrafts . ----Hard to predict losses but a couple of frigates is a significant part of the French Navy. And you will certainly lose more than a couple of Aircraft if you directly challenge the Egyptian IAD with US and Russian systems. From that moment , France put all her strenght to gain local ~500km2 box~ and temporary ~2 Hrs~ Air superiority and pound Egyptian Med costal lines and up to 50km deep in , under HEAVY jamming environment. During those 2 hrs , French Marines will land on beaches while Legion 2nd REP will be dropped 20 clicks in-land . We repeat the process as many times as needed in different locations and as fast as it can possibly be done . (We can probably expect heavy losses on both sides if Egypt decides to hold the Med costline at all cost ~sorry for the "cost" thing .) Now you tell me whatever you want , but I am telling you that the Marines and the Legion WILL hold 36 Hrs with Air support . And it 's all I need. ----Unguided MLRS has a kill zone of 1km x 1 km. Seen it in action. Not pretty. Egypt has the guided version and knows the potential landing sites. Basically an MLRS can threaten 6000km2+ up to 45km out. The north coast is only 400 miles wide. MLRS vehicle has a range of 300 miles and a speed of about 30 to 40 mph. You cant Jam Rockets. and ships are a lot slower than MLRS vehicles. M1A1 will smash into your amphibious force. F-16/F-4/Migs/M2000 will be in support. Patriot missiles, MANPADs and Russian SAMs will also be brought to bear. Then , it is the "Invasion" by beach landing of French Armored Divisions , Arty Btls and non-stop Paras drops . Pounded from Sea and Air , heavily engaged on the ground , Egypt will loose the Med Sea costline . Then , the Logistic "battle" comes into play ... ----with what see lift? You cant land in large enough numbers. And then there is the issue of F-16/Harpoon, SSK and mines. Too risky. You can see that in my scenario , the Med Sea is the key . I might be well "off" by believing that a "D-Day" tactic is valid , but the Med Sea is small , not far away from home ~it IS home after all~ and France has the needed shipping power to do so especialy so close from home land . To any Egypt
 
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gixxxerking    Ehran   4/29/2005 5:23:19 PM
This is the United States. We can spend untold billions on a war WITHOUT shifting to wartime economy. On a war footing for 4 years we could exceed cold war strength levels.
 
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Norvicension    RE:Ehran   4/29/2005 5:34:08 PM
Shame on you Ehran for doubting the all-poweful United States ;) Norvicension.
 
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Herc the Merc    RE:Ehran   4/29/2005 7:13:06 PM
Star Wars is not a fiction movie its what is really available in our secret arsenal. The French have no clue.
 
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