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Subject: How rank France in world power?
french stratege    4/23/2005 9:33:41 PM
o be a world power means to master a number of power tools and capacities: Economic power: France have fourth largest economy in world, even UK GNP seems on a par.But in fact France has a slightly bigger GDP in Puchasing Power Parity, a stronguer industry as its share in GNP is bigger, and especially in military usable industry (automotive, steel, microelectronic ...). Its trade balnce is positive unless US and UK.We benefit of Euro in sense that in a crisis, Euro would not go down like pound.Our financial market is less sensitive to crisis than UK. Then our saving, gold and currencies reserves are higher. France has 43 companies in the WORLD FORTUNE 500 ranking, one more than Germany and much more than UK or Italy.For example UK industry is stronguer than France in prescription drug but you can not use that for war. War potential: US: 100; Japan: 55, Germany ,40, France 25, UK 20. Diplomatic influence: should I said that French diplomatic network is world class and second to US only (with better skills).That our foreign aid is higher than UK or US in GNP %? That we have VETO right in UNO? That our cultural influence is world second after US? Thank to our industry we can substitute to US or Russia to deliver to a friend the whole set of weapons INDEPENDANTLY (from airfighters to subs via tank or C4ISR) and can shift power balance in any area.WE ARE THE SECOND WESTERN INDEPENDANT SUPPLIER AFTER US FOR CAPACITIES. We are the only Euro nation to have the full INDEPENDANT world reco network which is second to USA. RECO satellites, Telecom satellites (bandwith second to US), ELINT satellites, DSP satellites (in 2008), METEO satellites, spy ships, 30 ELINT ground station in word with 2 dedicated to spy US satelites, SPACE SURVEILLANCE RADAR. An unkown assets is that we are the only nation with US which can produce any currencies in world (to make false money in perfect imitation - we are the best in Europe for money technology) Sensitivity to energy imports: Our oil company is fourth in world and we have ROBUST assets in non middle east areas like Gabon, Angola etc...We produce our oil industry heavy equipment and our industry is world second of US in this field. Our nuclear energy production is world second in world and give us independance on electricity.Our influence in Africa secure minerals imports. Sensitivity to embargo: France has world class semiconductors facilities and hold the more advanced Europe wafer fab (joint venture between Motorola, SGS Thomson and Philips). Our auto maker build 7,5 million car /year, we have Airbus main designed office in France and so on...Our industry is pretty well balanced and produce almost everything at world class. Then we are the only Euro nation with a launch pad and Euro leader in Space.So we do not depend on US or other nation. We produce the second set of weapons after US and we do not depend of any supplier. Military technology: we are mastering everything form nukes to C4ISR with a technological level recognised by US as world second (while UK is close after).Of course neither Japan, Germany or China enjoy such an advantage. Nukes: our nuclear force are world THIRD and we produce precise counterforce weapons INDEPENDANTLY.Good second strike ability.400 warheads vs 200 for UK.(and we have stored weapons we can reactivate).3 SSBN can strike anywhere in the world. Military skills: our war academy is renown with US and UK.Israelis send some generals to perfectionate. Should I remember that Saudia Arabia asked French to crush rebellion in Mecka and not to US or UK?Saudis special forces and military stalled two weeks before asking France help.We did it in two days with 70 commandos leading Saudi commando (and using combat nerve gaz killing 2000 rebels). Mitary capacities. Second world force projection from 2007 to 2012 as a single Cdg with 3E2C and 40 Rafales, protected by 19 frigates with top ASW, 6 SSN and 3 Horizon with ASTER 30 outperform anything UK have: Indeed UK has 2 ACTIVE small carriers (with limited self protection and 60 harriers), they will not have any BVR fighters with FA2 retirement, and not antiship capacity since Harrier GR7/9 have NO RADAR!! UK air force has an handfull of non operational EF supported by 63 old Tornado ADV.No medium range airdefense for their troops. They have more SSN (soon reduced to 8 only) and military transport but we rely on civilian military prepared transports from french companies and our overseas bases to accumulate locally . ONLY US, UK, Russia and Japan has a sub force strong enough to put in danger our fleet. In fact we can crush any OPFOR airforce of 100 SU27/Mig29 (plus old MIGS or SU) without AWAC, ONLY relying on Cdg (even I agree a second would be better and needed). Most of nation do not have ENOUGH YAKHONT equivalent missiles to crush our naval force until our second carrier is operational. UK is unable to do that and in 2010 only 4 T45 will have entered service
 
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Agammenon    RE:Worlds best Restaurants ????   4/27/2005 8:28:08 PM
Not just the Fat Duck, Herc. link
 
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dummnutzer    Worcester: some facts   4/27/2005 8:38:25 PM
Q:If you want another scary number, look at the Brandenburg State elections (capital: Berlin) a few months back: TWO Nazi parties (swastikas etc) got over 20% vote ... link Sorry, You are are wrong. One right wing party (DVU), which denies any links to Nazism and shows no swastikas, got 6.1 % of the vote, the other one (NPD) did not run in this state. And claiming Berlin to be a part of Brandenburg is a lethal insult to any Berliner, as Berlin is an independant state. You might be confusing this with the UK´s European election, where the BNP (British Nazis) and UKIP (extreme populist right) got 4.9 % and 16.1 % ...
 
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verdunjp    RE:To French Stratege   4/27/2005 9:32:03 PM
'After WW2 US help continental Europe with a meager aid to rebuild (and it was done mainly by Euroepans) after destroying it. Not an help fro friendly motive, only to counter communism.' FS I usualy agree with your comments but that one goes to far. USA liberated (and did not destroyed) France (with GB, canadians and others) and help Europe (including France) to rebuilt. You can say that it was to stop the communists but at the end, USA help France. You should be fair and say thanks for what USA did for france during WWII. Regards, Verdunjp
 
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Godofgamblers    gix: domestic politics run both ways   4/27/2005 10:29:30 PM
if you want to factor in instability among France's muslim population, you have to factor in instability among Egypt's too. Muburek is teetering on the edge and a french attack might push him over the edge. as for Al Qaeda forces retaliating against france, it may well be the opposite as Egypt is seen as Pro-US. Al Qaeda may congratulate france on the move since free elections in Egypt may well bring in an Al Qaeda friendly gov't. ever heard of the 'muslim brotherhood'? they might even serve as a french fifth column. i would argue that political factors would strengthen the French hand... not weaken it.
 
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gixxxerking    Domestic politics, One Way Street.   4/27/2005 11:13:42 PM
"i would argue that political factors would strengthen the French hand... not weaken it." --GoG And you would be wrong. Muburek is replaced by me! And FS is Chirac in our little game. Also Al-Qaeda's position on attacking Muslim nations is clear hand has many historical examples. In fact when the US went to Saudi Arabia to stop Saddam in GW1 the Al-Qaeda didnt not side with the US did they? And You see the way they treated Spain. But You have much more than Ql-Qaeda to worry about. The Egyptian Special Forces and Intelligence services will raise hell. Not to mention the peoples of Sudan and Etriea who would not take too kindly to FS violating their sovernty.
 
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Godofgamblers    RE:Domestic politics, One Way Street.   4/27/2005 11:34:13 PM
you're Muburek and FS is Chirac! he he that gives rise to some interesting possibilities. Chirac/FS had better be careful since if, in a lightning Egyptian commando raid, you caught him, we all remember your policy on torture!
 
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mithradates    FS, Franch attack on China . . . . Burma Scenario    4/28/2005 1:04:30 AM
On reading your comments about how France can hand a humiliating defeat to China, I noticed a few points that were just plain rediculous. "We can strike western inland China via Burma with rafales air refueled by SuperEtendard. We can take Burma to establish air bases." Wow, so you would invade and conquor another country that has done nothing to France just for a few token airstrikes to humiliate China? Lets suppose France tries to invade Burma. How would this be done considering that Burma is ally of China? We have about 7,000 troops stationed in 3 miliary bases in that country? Now if France sends it's single CBG, China would know through it's HUMINT and ELINT networks well before the task force reaches Burma. Let's assume that the French CBG proceeds to launch air strikes against Burma, a few things will happen. Immediatly China will have the moral high ground for declaring war against France, while France will look like a bully to the world for trying to invade a far weaker nation. Now as for the war, the French Carrier De Gaulle has a maximum of around 70 aircrafts. That is not enough aircraft to even gain air-superiority over Burma let alone air dominance. Remember that Burma is well within loitering range of the PLAAF and PLA forces in the Guanzhou, and ChengDu Military regions. Additionally, there are numerious railroads and highways connecting the two countries, so ground forces can be rapidly deployed into Burma from Southern China(deployment of 100,000 rapid reaction troops to Burma takes an estimated 5 days in wargames). So lets assume that the PLA uses only the forces of these 2 military regions(discounting the other 5 military regions) near Burma. Just to sweeten the odds, lets just assume that China doesn't even call up their national guard, and that they only send their Rapid Reaction force(30% of the PLA troops in the 2 MRs) into Burma and leave the regular army to guard the borders. And additionally, lets just assume that China has no military naval prescence in the Indian ocean(and we do infact have navel bases and subs deployed on both sides of the Indian ocean). So basically the one French CBG along with whatever troop transport ships France can muster will be facing roughly the following defensive force posture placed within Burma: GROUND FORCE (Rapid Reaction PLA and local Burma forces): 13th Group Army (56005 Unit), Chongqing Armoured Brigade, Pengzhou, Sichuan 37th Motorised Infantry Division, Chongqing 149th Mechanised Infantry Division*, Emei, Sichuan 62nd Motorised Infantry Brigade, Wuwei, Gansu Artillery Brigade, Chongqing Air Defence Brigade, Kunming, Yunnan 14th Group Army (35201 Unit), Kunming, Yunnan Armoured Brigade, Kunming, Yunnan 40th Motorised Infantry Division (Jungle Warfare), Dali, Yunnan 49th Motorised Infantry Division, Kaiyuan, Yunnan 4th Artillery Division, Kunming, Yunnan Air defence Brigade, Mianyang, Sichuan 7,000 PLA security troops in Burma (Kachin State, Mon State, Rakhine State ) ~50 T-98 MBT ~300 T-96 MBT ~300 T-63A Light Amphibious Tanks (specially designed for warfare in the tropics) 300 T-92 APC 300 T-86 APC 2 Brigades of S-300 and FT-2000 SAMs 30 WZ-9 Attack Helicopter 300,000 Local Burmese troops(mostly static infantry and artillery forces) Total troop Strength: 400,000 (PLA + local troops) Rapid Reaction PLAAF Units within loitering range: 1 KJ-2000 (AWAC) 100 J-11 40 Su-30 30 J-10 20 FBC-1 100 J-8H(upgraded BVR Capable) 200 J-7G(upgraded BVR Capable) Total PLAAF in-theater Fighter Strength: 480 Units So there you have it, in terms of total air units in theater the Defenders would outnumber the attackers by a factor of 7 times. And all of the defender aircrafts would be all-weather and BVR capable. France cannot acheive Air-dominance over Burma, it can probable inflict a higher casualty ratio on the Chinese aircrafts, but air dominance would be out of the question. In terms of ground forces, Rapid Reaction forces are fairly professional soldiers trained in U.S and Israeli tactics. Each rapid reaction unit is equipped with Kevlar body armor and night vision equipment. The local troops, while being poorly trained and armed is still 300,000 strong and would be defending their homeland from invasion. To successfully invade Burma without air dominance would theoretically require a 3:1 attacker to defender ratio. Lets assume that due to a 10 year technological lead that France has over China, we can cut that ratio down to 1:1. And lets just say that due to the 30-40 year tech lead over the army of Burma, the ratio in respect to Burma would be 1:2, that's still at least 250,000 ground troops that France will have to build up somewhere and deploy onto the soil of Burma within a very short period of time, and France currently doesn't have a large enough army to support such an operation, let alone the logistical capability to tr
 
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french stratege    gxxx: we assume US stay neutral.   4/28/2005 7:23:10 AM
gxxx: we assume US stay neutral. If Egypt can buy weapons, we can buy also ten time more weapons at least even to US or Germany (tank likely as we have agrements). For building in Djibouti and Chad we use military sealift during the negociation period where no military operation occur (and road + aerial transport from dakar to Chad). A cargo can take from 4000 to 10000 tons and a ferry/ro-ro car transport more than 4000 linear meter so up to 500 trucks/IFV.French companies have agrement for war time and law compelled them to put their assets to French goverment disposal. We will use prepositioned supplies in djibouti and reinforce them. Lack of tanker from egypt and immediate deploiement of Aster 30 ground battery will secure n'djamena and forward base and Djibouti. We can add reserve AM30B2 (up to 614) to our Leclerc to counter M60 and T62 (even I don't think it is necessary).(AMX30B2 have DU rounds and thermal camera and still potent on firepower).I Think that 9 Leclerc bataillons should be enough considering our air total superiority, C4ISR, PGM, Orchidée, mobility, HELOs numbers etc..). Considering Egypt armed forces, we will mobilize some reserve units. I remember you that our force are far technologically superior (satelites, C4ISR, night vision, thermal screens, etc..). I doubt really Lybia (which hate Egypt) or Sudan (the same) would react against limited violation (or use) of their airspace or ground in desert.Even they could side us in exchange of territory and money. BTW we do not need necessarly to cross Sudan from Djibouti. From Chad only 50 miles of Lybian or Sudanese desert (they can ignore form wwhich side we have crossed). Really I don't see what Egypt can do.We train their forces today and we know how bad they are on training.
 
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PeregrinePike    RE:How rank France in world power?   4/28/2005 2:12:25 PM
Does France have stomach for blood-shed? ... I know its not easily quantifiable, and depends on different samplings. ... and its not even power per se. ... but its kind of like a soft-hard (plasma like?) morale power.
 
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gixxxerking    RE:gxxx: we assume US stay neutral - Why?   4/28/2005 3:30:47 PM
"gxxx: we assume US stay neutral. If Egypt can buy weapons, we can buy also ten time more weapons at least even to US or Germany (tank likely as we have agrements). For building in Djibouti and Chad we use military sealift during the negociation period where no military operation occur (and road + aerial transport from dakar to Chad). A cargo can take from 4000 to 10000 tons and a ferry/ro-ro car transport more than 4000 linear meter so up to 500 trucks/IFV.French companies have agrement for war time and law compelled them to put their assets to French goverment disposal. We will use prepositioned supplies in djibouti and reinforce them. Lack of tanker from egypt and immediate deploiement of Aster 30 ground battery will secure n'djamena and forward base and Djibouti. We can add reserve AM30B2 (up to 614) to our Leclerc to counter M60 and T62 (even I don't think it is necessary).(AMX30B2 have DU rounds and thermal camera and still potent on firepower).I Think that 9 Leclerc bataillons should be enough considering our air total superiority, C4ISR, PGM, Orchidée, mobility, HELOs numbers etc..). Considering Egypt armed forces, we will mobilize some reserve units. I remember you that our force are far technologically superior (satelites, C4ISR, night vision, thermal screens, etc..). I doubt really Lybia (which hate Egypt) or Sudan (the same) would react against limited violation (or use) of their airspace or ground in desert.Even they could side us in exchange of territory and money. BTW we do not need necessarly to cross Sudan from Djibouti. From Chad only 50 miles of Lybian or Sudanese desert (they can ignore form wwhich side we have crossed). Really I don't see what Egypt can do.We train their forces today and we know how bad they are on training." ---You dont see what Egypt can do? Are you mad? Those Abrams will massacre anything less than 3 to 1 odds and maybe even 5 to 1 in a defense. M1A1 vs LeClerc and M60 vs AMX30 is rough parity not an advantage to you! I have spent years as a TC and BC and can clearly tell you this! Even in success your casualty ratio will be too high to carry on offensive ops more than a week. And you cant just assume the territories you violate will do nothing. That invalidates the whole scenario. And why should the US stay nuetral when a known ally is facing a known enemy. You are going forward with Gallileo and Lifting the Arms Embargo. You did oppose Iraq. These things happened and are not forgotten. Consequences my friend...:) No fun when the rabbit has a gun is it! You think I like knowing my Air Force, Navy and USMC Brothers may be dealing with European systems over Taiwan straits? Ha, US neutral my A$$! Certainly not directly involved but you can almost be sure the flow of US arms would increase or at least remain the same as it did with the Soviets. And as to your ro/ro ships being allowed free access to the Red Sea. SSK's can and will sow minefields. If not directly torpedo high value targets. And due to the stealth of the submarine and mine threat. There will be political deniability at least for a time. You may have delusions of grandure but I assure you French Admirals do not. They would tell you that you are sending the transports and troop ships into a threat environment where the risk far outweigh your ability to mitigate them. Now I'm not saying you could not attempt to fight your way in. I am saying you would have to fight your way in. For Egypt to allow you to mass would be a huge military blunder similar to Saddam allowing a coalition to form. And the fact that you are using threats on neighboring countries gives legitimacy to Egyptian pre-emption. But regardless of what Egypt does you have to consider it in your plan. Your Generals and Admirals would be under tremendous pressure to not repeat French military history of the 20th century. I dont mean that as an insult either. Look at how the US had to overcome the perception of Iraq becoming Vietnam in 1991. Now I cant see how you would be able to fight your CdG task force through the Red Sea which would be necessary to protect your build up. You would be in range of the ENTIRE Egyptian Air Force and Navy and numbers alone would overwhelm you in such confined waters. Also if you were to put such a high value target as the CdG in the Red Sea or even too close in the Med. The Benefits of sinking it pre-emptively would outweigh both the political cost and any possible retaliation from France unless you intend to use nuclear weapons. which US pressure would almost certainly stop. And you do not have total air superiority over Egypt. You have a technological advantage which is offset by geography and Egyptian numerical and logistical advantages. Remember that Egypt is using US fighters and AWACS, US(Patriots) and Russian SAMs and huge reserves of old Soviet Fighters. All of these systems are combat proven as well. As to satellite intelligence Egypt could get it from the US or commercial sources. N
 
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