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Subject: Chinese Reunification Scenario
gixxxerking    4/5/2005 2:36:51 PM
China has just invaded Taiwan in a no warning OOTB attack. The speed and ferocity of the attack have beaten back the Taiwanese but not without heavy losses. The Invasion force has suffered 30% to 50% casualties on the ground. Although organized resistance has been broken and the Taiwanese government has ceased to exist, remnants of the Taiwanese military have the Chinese invaders locked in a brutal guerrilla war on the ground and UNDER the sea. It is day 7 and a powerful allied Airforces and fleets are forming but have yet to begin hostilities. The Allies are what remains of Taiwanese defense forces, Japan, South Korea, Australia, India and United States. The EU has condemed the Chinese invasion but has decided to remain nuetral and not supply military equipment during the conflict but will continue trade. Russia has decided to honor its military logistical commitments to China but states that it will not get involved by direct military means. As usual the United Nations is ineffective and useless. No nuclear weapons have been used, yet. The Allies have given the Chinese an unspecified ultimatum to unconditionally withdraw from Taiwan and has put a Naval blockade against all Chinese shipping and air traffic. What does China do next?
 
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PeregrinePike    RE:Chinese Reunification Scenario   4/6/2005 7:14:18 PM
"Sometimes civilians get caught in the fray and thats just too god damned bad. I never shed a tear or felt the slightest remorse over it." -- Sometimes I fear that you will feel the same about Allied civilians too... when was the last time civilians of US were "just cross-fire victims"? - I have heard (and unfortunately, even used myself) the same term in conflicts as terrible as the current GWOT... but those are in nations currently fighting insurgencies... just want to see where an American would draw the line for his own side.
 
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gixxxerking    RE:Chinese Reunification Scenario   4/6/2005 7:23:50 PM
"Sometimes I fear that you will feel the same about Allied civilians too... when was the last time civilians of US were "just cross-fire victims"? - I have heard (and unfortunately, even used myself) the same term in conflicts as terrible as the current GWOT... but those are in nations currently fighting insurgencies... just want to see where an American would draw the line for his own side." ---pike --US Civilians, the last time, 9/11. No more waiting to be attacked first for me. Even with nukes. I no longer see any difference between citizen or soldier in warfare unless the civilians are not supportive of the government. Of course I will obey the UCMJ but MY PERSONAL FEELINGS are that we should no longer honor any rules that would restrict what we could do in war.
 
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PeregrinePike    RE:Chinese Reunification Scenario   4/6/2005 7:48:58 PM
"US Civilians, the last time, 9/11. No more waiting to be attacked first for me. Even with nukes. I no longer see any difference between citizen or soldier in warfare unless the civilians are not supportive of the government. Of course I will obey the UCMJ but MY PERSONAL FEELINGS are that we should no longer honor any rules that would restrict what we could do in war." -- Maybe if you are a jihadi or a crusader you see victims of 9/11 as "just cross-fire victims"... but I see them as victims delibrately drawn into the fire, for no fault of their own. By an irresponsible force that has crossed the line into criminality, and no longer a military one. Dont degrade them, and white-wash the terrorists by this. As far as I can see, here in near-by Antietam - both forces made all efforts to limit the civilian casualties to a few unfortunate cows... and maybe a few more instances here and there later on. Now, you leave that and thread on Asian (and Australian) grounds... which have seen far more harm inflicted on civilians in the same "cross-fire casualties" scenario... and the memories are lot more raw. For all practical purposes, since you prefer to take such a cold-hearted stance - you HAVE to consider the risk you are placing your Allies in!
 
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gixxxerking    RE:Chinese Reunification Scenario   4/6/2005 8:33:17 PM
I did. The risk are minimal provided we strike first.
 
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displacedjim    RE:Chinese Reunification Scenario   4/6/2005 11:54:54 PM
"OK so if you read about the NMD system 24 RV's attritted by a nuclear first strike have a good chance of being STOPPED!!! And I'm not suggesting limiting the targets to the Chinese nuclear forces. Read the list of targets I suggested. Civilians are legitimate targets as far as I'm concerned as long as they continue to support their government.... Sometimes civilians get caught in the fray and thats just too god damned bad. I never shed a tear or felt the slightest remorse over it. I noticed your displeasure at the choice to bomb the Serb civilian in another thread. Well news flash, THATS A WAR FOR YA!!!" - Gixx ---- Assuming NMD is/will be working as advertised, I agree at this time their ICBMs would stand a good chance of being completely stopped. However, that means there's a bad chance they won't. Now the administration has to weigh the advantage of a bad chace of not stopping all the RVs against the gain from nuking the crap out of the PLA and CCP, and killing at least hundreds of thousands of civilians, if not many nore, along with them. And all that must be weighed under the standards of military necessity. If you're still in the Guard/active Reserve (I forgot your exact history, no offense meant, I'm a USAFR officer in the active reserve myself in case you didn't know), I hope you'll get a chance to receive some more LOAC refresher training soon and maybe you ask something about these kinds of situations if possible. I do not claim to be deeply knowledgable myself, so I admit I am uncertain here, but I think your definition of when this level of force can be used and on who is a bit beyond the legal guidelines. Civilians are not acceptable targets merely because they are not seen taking up active opposition to their government. Furthermore, what if there actually are thousands of civilians living in and around some of your target list who are actively resisting their government. Ummm, they just got vaped anyway. I'm not convinced hard-over in the other direction a la ElCid and his "Just Nuclear War Theory" (Subtitled: "Or More Appropriately the Lack Thereof") theories, but I think your take on it is well beyond what any administration would be willing or even legally allowed to do. Displacedjim P.S. I meant to get back to you on your question regarding the OAF, but I got distracted. I'll try to post my puny personal knowledge about it tomorrow.
 
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slowball    RE:Chinese Reunification Scenario   4/7/2005 12:21:26 AM
"Actually, even if we could 100% guarantee they couldn't nuke America in return still isn't strong enough in this scenario. Once again, as far as I'm concerned the only people responsible for the liberty of Taiwan is the Taiwanese. Taiwan is certainly strong enough economically that they could afford to prepare themselves sufficiently for their military to at least hold back the PLA and keep the issue in doubt for weeks. This is all the time we'd need to arrive in sufficient force to ensure China's invasion would fail. Therefore, if Taiwan does not do this, then screw them if they cave in early and the PLA occupies them."--Displacedjim Jim is right on target with this one. If the President ever ordered such a strike it would result in a major crisis in the chain of command as the President is declared unfit for duty and replaced.
 
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gixxxerking    RE:Chinese Reunification Scenario   4/7/2005 12:51:57 AM
LOAC refresher training...lol I taught the class last year! Oh what utter BS. I sleep with a clear conscience. No offense Djim but I find that type of thinking to be soft. I dont MG unarmed civilians for the hell of it. But I have no problem using the Main Gun in populated areas to do recon by fire. In my mind its the politicians job to keep civilians safe from war. Its my job to win when they fail. The most merciful thing you can do in war is to use your most casualty producing weapons first and fight as violently as possible to ensure a rapid victory. But all this is a big digression from my main point that China invading Taiwan would be lunacy and they would lose far more than they could ever hope to gain.
 
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AussieEngineer    RE:Chinese Reunification Scenario   4/7/2005 4:10:44 AM
China has a legitimate claim to Taiwan, if they did successfully invade the US should do nothing. It would be far better for both the people of the US, its allies, the PRC and the former ROC that the US does nothing. Life in the PRC is improving and its only a matter of time before they have elections and what not, causing thousands of deaths for little appreciable gains to the people you are suppose to be defending is stupid. If Taiwan was invaded the US should not retaliate for the sake of the Taiwanese and everyone else in the region. If on the otherhand and invasion could be stopped we should take steps to do so.
 
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displacedjim    RE:Chinese Reunification Scenario   4/7/2005 10:00:31 AM
It's not about sleeping with a clear conscience; glad to hear that you do. It's also not about doing whatever it takes to win. It's about doing whatever it takes within the boundaries our society has placed on us to win. Well, then I hope your troops never end up get court martialed along with you becuase you ordered them to light up the village at the wrong time. Good luck to you on that. Displacedjim P.S. I respectfully suggest you talk with the JAG about this before the next time you're called on to teach troops what they can and can't do according to the law.
 
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gixxxerking    RE:Chinese Reunification Scenario   4/7/2005 3:57:13 PM
Well I dont place boundarie I have is to not lose, bring as many of my men back as possible, avoid civilian casualties and survive myself. In that order. If one day one of my orders gets me in hot water. So be it. But This is not about me. Nuking ChiComs is not illegal in any way and the right thing to do IMO if we get into a war. A responsible President would order the strike while we have a good chance to pull it off without massive retaliation. Here is not the place but in a one on one debate I could convince you that it is best. And even if it is wrong whos going to stop us? The U.N.? The Hague?...lol Yeah right.
 
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