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Subject: Chinese Reunification Scenario
gixxxerking    4/5/2005 2:36:51 PM
China has just invaded Taiwan in a no warning OOTB attack. The speed and ferocity of the attack have beaten back the Taiwanese but not without heavy losses. The Invasion force has suffered 30% to 50% casualties on the ground. Although organized resistance has been broken and the Taiwanese government has ceased to exist, remnants of the Taiwanese military have the Chinese invaders locked in a brutal guerrilla war on the ground and UNDER the sea. It is day 7 and a powerful allied Airforces and fleets are forming but have yet to begin hostilities. The Allies are what remains of Taiwanese defense forces, Japan, South Korea, Australia, India and United States. The EU has condemed the Chinese invasion but has decided to remain nuetral and not supply military equipment during the conflict but will continue trade. Russia has decided to honor its military logistical commitments to China but states that it will not get involved by direct military means. As usual the United Nations is ineffective and useless. No nuclear weapons have been used, yet. The Allies have given the Chinese an unspecified ultimatum to unconditionally withdraw from Taiwan and has put a Naval blockade against all Chinese shipping and air traffic.

What does China do next?
 
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blacksmith    RE:Chinese Reunification Scenario   4/7/2005 4:45:36 PM
I don't think this has happened before...but I'm going to agree with French stratege...........(Flash traffic: Satan orders large numbers of parkas and thermal underwear :-) If the Reds are on Taiwan in strength, the Taiwanese army scattered and the government gone, then the mainland has won. The US will not invade Tibet to liberate it. We will not invade Taiwan to liberate it. Game over. Next game is to stop Chinese expansion into Southeast Asia. The defense of Taiwan has to be at sea and on the beach.
 
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AussieEngineer    RE:Chinese Reunification Scenario   4/8/2005 2:48:28 AM
your just itchy to fire off nukes gixxx ;-)
 
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warishumannature    The real reason we won't nuke China, or anybody else, first   4/8/2005 7:28:19 AM
We can clarify this hypothetical discussion by giving another example besides China-Taiwan in which US forces intervened. Forget China for now. I?m gonna talk about 1) Serbia: A tyrannical dictatorship, bent on and actually carrying out genocide (est. 200,000 Bosnians ?ethnically cleansed?) ? clearly an aggressor we wanted to stop. Why didn?t we use nuclear weapons on Serb factories, maybe around Belgrade? Would?ve surely been advantageous from a pure military point of view, would wipe out the industrial base completely, as well as, by coincidence, kill of many hundreds of thousands of Serbs. Like you said, no problem massacring, ?inadvertently?, enemy civilians who are supporting their government. THAT?S WAR FOR YA, like you say. Note we were not trying, as in Iraq, to supposedly free the Serbian people. We didn?t profess to care about the Serbian people. We were going to stop their aggression, plain and simple. Nukes would have been perfect, and they would stand ZERO chance of retaliating, sort of like your assessment of China?s chances, but even worse.r All other material costs would have been tolerable, in this context of WAR: radiation, fallout, environmental impact etc. So, why didn?t we nuke? What stopped us? Was it the goodness of our hearts? In short, what keeps America or Russia from nuking other countries, even brutal aggressive ones? Simple. They don?t want to be forever ostracized from the Rest of the World (ROW). Let?s face it: if said nuked country cannot retaliate versus the nuker, nobody else will directly retaliate for them. We could have nuked Iraq in 1991, Russia could have nuked Afghanistan, Britain could have done so to Argentina in 1982. There would have been zero retaliation. What exactly would we have done against Russia in 1985? Or even Britain, a much weaker power than us, in 1982? But they, and we, didn?t do it. Because if any nation did that, they would be as greatly and justly condemned as mass-murderers and enemies of humanity. Yawn, you say. So what? Well, try this for starters: Complete cut-off of everything: people, communications, transport, trade, savings and investment and scientific-technological exchange basically FOREVER between say the guilty country and the rest of the world. There would be not 1 but 2 separate planets on Earth: one with 280 million Americans (to use us in this example), and the other with the other 5.72 billion human beings. We use nukes for no good reason, (and that?s how it will be seen no matter how hard we spin it), and it?s basically saying ?F__K YOU? to the ROW. We will send a signal that we are no longer part of the world, and they can all go you know what. Does any nation want to live like that? We shouldn?t use nukes first in a China-Taiwan conflict, and unless we?re really stupid and self-destructive, we won?t.
 
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