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Subject: Chinese Reunification Scenario
gixxxerking    4/5/2005 2:36:51 PM
China has just invaded Taiwan in a no warning OOTB attack. The speed and ferocity of the attack have beaten back the Taiwanese but not without heavy losses. The Invasion force has suffered 30% to 50% casualties on the ground. Although organized resistance has been broken and the Taiwanese government has ceased to exist, remnants of the Taiwanese military have the Chinese invaders locked in a brutal guerrilla war on the ground and UNDER the sea. It is day 7 and a powerful allied Airforces and fleets are forming but have yet to begin hostilities. The Allies are what remains of Taiwanese defense forces, Japan, South Korea, Australia, India and United States. The EU has condemed the Chinese invasion but has decided to remain nuetral and not supply military equipment during the conflict but will continue trade. Russia has decided to honor its military logistical commitments to China but states that it will not get involved by direct military means. As usual the United Nations is ineffective and useless. No nuclear weapons have been used, yet. The Allies have given the Chinese an unspecified ultimatum to unconditionally withdraw from Taiwan and has put a Naval blockade against all Chinese shipping and air traffic.

What does China do next?
 
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french stratege    RE:Chinese Reunification Scenario   4/5/2005 2:46:39 PM
Reinforce and wait (in Taiwan), then threaten to use tactical nukes on any foreign force wich try to land in taiwan. US do nothing obviously as Chinese propose to form a new "autonomous democratic gov" like in Hong kong with a referendum to save US face (and economic interest). maybe they could also propose an help to reunify Korea.Nice attempt with your scenario (more realistic).Of course China has full of mobile MIRVED ICBM before launching invasion to deter as they are not fools. UNO can not do anything because China has great power status and veto. Once it is done(invasion), game is over especially if you have only guerilla!
 
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PeregrinePike    RE:Chinese Reunification Scenario - What do Australia and India do, again?   4/5/2005 2:49:09 PM
What do Australia and India do in a Taiwan take-over scenario, again? In the ideal "China containment" game their places are SouthEast Asia and South West Asia respectively. Maybe, you can integrate Australia into a naval alliance against PRC (highly unadvisible, since it leaves South East area open)... but how about India? They are Russian and Israeli equiped force - more on the hybrid than the Western kind. Both can make a lot of noise and huff-and-puff on China's other borders... but I fear it would drive together all Chinese into an "us vs. the world" struggle. I suggest leaving them out for the moment.
 
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gixxxerking    RE:Chinese Reunification Scenario--fs   4/5/2005 3:08:53 PM
----Very good FS! Now that the nuclear demons have been released this is what happens on day 8. At about 0200 hours local time the the ABL and Aegis Missile defense systems are deployed. the NMD system is on high alert and the USAF has begun to destroy Chinese satellites. The USS Alaska and USS Nevada release their payloads on Chinese targets. Their sorties last 5 to 10 minutes. B-52 deliver stealthy AGM-129's to the bases that serve the Chinese invasion force logistical needs. B-2's deliver earth penetrating nuclear weapons to all known Chinese ICBM sites and they perform their cold war mission HUNTING MOBILE ICBMs! The allied fleet and Airforces move to engage Chinese forces on Taiwan immediately following the nuclear attacks. What happens next is irrelevant because at this point the Chinese invasion is a moot point and the damage to China far outweigh any potential gain. The Chinese leaders who dreamed up invading Taiwan wake up from their nightmares and decide it better to coexist with Taiwan!
 
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displacedjim    RE:Chinese Reunification Scenario--fs   4/5/2005 5:41:30 PM
Could that happen? Yes. Would that happen? Not a chance. We would never nuclear first strike China as part of a war over Taiwan, even if we were virtually certain it was nearly foolproof to completely destroy all their nuclear return strike capability. Displacedjim
 
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gixxxerking    RE:Chinese Reunification Scenario--fs   4/5/2005 6:47:14 PM
Djim, Why do you think we would never do anything? It makes military sense to first strike China especially since we have a great chance to take out their ability to retaliate or at least reduce it to levels that our missile defense could stop. We nuclear first struck Japan did we not? Why let China, who in fs response and in real life, threaten first use have that option? I know there is a huge moral hurdle most people cant jump when it comes to nuclear weapons but history says that we would be likely to do it. And against China its a good option since they have very little to strike back with even before the first strike. No US President will rule out the nuclear options.
 
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Godofgamblers    Kopi Annan stuns the world...   4/5/2005 8:09:58 PM
by sending a very harsh diplomatic note to China's leaders.
 
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Alexis    A better Chinese reunification scenario   4/6/2005 5:55:14 AM
Continued but progressive political liberalization of China, joined with even more intertwining of mainland and Taiwan economic interests, joined with returning to power of the Kuomintang in Taiwan following the great war scares of 2008 and 2011, lead to joint definition of a scheme for reunification by mainland (formerly communist) and island (nationalist) China. The solemn Reunification celebration of Jan 1st, 2029 is widely followed worldwide.
 
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Alexis    This nuclear war could NOT be won in any meaningful sense - to Gixxx   4/6/2005 6:12:11 AM
"Very good FS! Now that the nuclear demons have been released this is what happens on day 8. At about 0200 hours local time the the ABL and Aegis Missile defense systems are deployed. the NMD system is on high alert and the USAF has begun to destroy Chinese satellites. The USS Alaska and USS Nevada release their payloads on Chinese targets. Their sorties last 5 to 10 minutes. B-52 deliver stealthy AGM-129's to the bases that serve the Chinese invasion force logistical needs. B-2's deliver earth penetrating nuclear weapons to all known Chinese ICBM sites and they perform their cold war mission HUNTING MOBILE ICBMs! The allied fleet and Airforces move to engage Chinese forces on Taiwan immediately following the nuclear attacks. What happens next is irrelevant because at this point the Chinese invasion is a moot point and the damage to China far outweigh any potential gain. The Chinese leaders who dreamed up invading Taiwan wake up from their nightmares and decide it better to coexist with Taiwan!" No, Gixxx, you're mistaken. As FS said, the Chinese leadership not being bonkers would ***never*** start a war before having a solid second strike deterrent. They are no Saddam Hussein invading Kuwait without having the first nuke ! The scenario you outline would result in : - ABL being useless (400 km range isn't going to get you anywhere when it comes to ICBMs dispersed in a nation just as large as the US) - Aegis is even worse as far as range is concerned - NMD is already behind schedule now, and will most probably become even more later. Even if it was deployed in a meaningful way, Chinese deterrent of the time could easily overcome it by sheer numbers - B-2s will be deprived of targets as far as fixed ICBMs go (again, the Chinese are not stupid) and they will fail finding mobile ones. The stealthiest bomber is useless if it cannot be fed targeting information, even if it is not shot down thanks to antistealth ground radars What would happen next would be VERY relevant, because that would be a coordinated strike by several tens or more than one hundred DF-41 mobile MIRVed ICBMs against CONUS from mainland China. Out of several hundreds RVs, several tens would be stopped by NMD (IF it is operational ...). The end result would be the loss of both China's and America's most important cities, with consequences that would take several generations being healed. Because that would be the consequences of a US nuclear first strike against China, that nuclear first strike would never happen. Because that first strike would never happen, the Chinese would be free not only to threaten to strike, but also to actually strike landing forces with nuclear weapons. Pardon me to say that you seem to have trouble understanding the word "impossible" when it comes to US military abilities. These are great, but not infinite. Stopping a solid second strike nuclear deterrent is impossible for the US now, and it will remain so in any foreseeable future.
 
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Bluewings    RE:This nuclear war could NOT be won in any meaningful sense - to Gixxx   4/6/2005 10:42:59 AM
What said Alexis ... Cheers .
 
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displacedjim    RE:Chinese Reunification Scenario--fs   4/6/2005 11:10:26 AM
Why do you think we would never do anything? It makes military sense to first strike China especially since we have a great chance to take out their ability to retaliate or at least reduce it to levels that our missile defense could stop. We nuclear first struck Japan did we not? Why let China, who in fs response and in real life, threaten first use have that option? I know there is a huge moral hurdle most people cant jump when it comes to nuclear weapons but history says that we would be likely to do it. And against China its a good option since they have very little to strike back with even before the first strike. No US President will rule out the nuclear options. -- Gixx ---- Because the use of nukes (and all military force, but perhaps nukes most of all) is not governed solely by what makes the best military sense. We have essentially zero ICBM defense today, certainly none worth gambling on as part of a plan that initiates a first strike. Dropping two bombs on a nation that attacked us first, that we had declared war on, and that had zero chance of retaliating in kind is quite different than showing up a day late and a carrier task force short to a Chinese tea party in Taipei and deciding that, since we weren't there to stop China from taking one island and stopping without harming any (or very few) Americans in the process, we'd up and unload hundreds of H-bombs on them in an undeclared war first strike that still absolutely would not be guaranteed to prevent China from retaliating with at least one of their own somehow. While I think the odds are good that this year we could stop all their ICBMs from launching (because they only have a couple dozen and we know where they are), it's still a crap shoot that we'd get every one. The odds that we could intercept even just one is another crap shoot. Why take the chance of getting a city (or more) fried and loosing hundreds of thousands of lives over the fact that the Taiwanese couldn't be bothered enough to actually fight for their own freedom for long enough (like maybe a couple weeks) for us to show up and bail them out? As an aside, there are still other nukes that China might find a way to deliver by unconventional means, and/or launch with their MRBMs at our bases/possessions in Okinawa, Guam, etc. Even "just" losing Guam wouldn't be worth it in my book to launch a first strike against China in this scenario. Actually, even if we could 100% guarantee they couldn't nuke America in return still isn't strong enough in this scenario. Once again, as far as I'm concerned the only people responsible for the liberty of Taiwan is the Taiwanese. Taiwan is certainly strong enough economically that they could afford to prepare themselves sufficiently for their military to at least hold back the PLA and keep the issue in doubt for weeks. This is all the time we'd need to arrive in sufficient force to ensure China's invasion would fail. Therefore, if Taiwan does not do this, then screw them if they cave in early and the PLA occupies them. Displacedjim
 
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PeregrinePike    Gixx - why nukes on US, and not on India, Oz, Japan, or a US fleet?   4/6/2005 11:27:48 AM
Gixx - why do you assume the Chinese will launch nukes on US, and not on India, Oz, Japan, or a US fleet? As far as I can see: 1. Launching it on Japan has terrible emotional-rallying appeal among the Chinese. It can win the war for China then and there, when the remaining Taiwanese simply join up the PRC. 2. Oz will probably be a good and secure marshalling point for future strikes on China, and say there is a good enough concentration in a Australian port - it will provide a good military target, which can be explained off to the lefty US and the world -- remember some were saying Pentagon was an ok target for the terrorists, but WTC wasnt? 3. US fleet for the same reason? 4. India, for the fear of being invaded - afterall only India alone can put up enough soldiers (since you say no NATO or Russia) for a ground invasion of China and suppressing the Chinese autocracy (I am not confident enough to say bring democracy)... and destroy CCP in process.
 
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gixxxerking    RE:Gixx - why nukes on US, and not on India, Oz, Japan, or a US fleet?   4/6/2005 12:51:53 PM
India, Oz and Japan are potential targets. The US fleet I think has an excellent chance to shoot down any Chinese nuke and even Japan should have a limited means to survive anything short of a full ICBM strike.
 
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gixxxerking    RE:Chinese Reunification Scenario--displacedjim   4/6/2005 12:56:38 PM
Your personal political views and moral limitations are clouding your judgement. Facts and reason dont back up your arguement although it is admirable. China could nuke a lot of other places but they are way short of being able to reliably hit CONUS and even if they do the damage will be minimal when looked at from a military point of view. A few RV's arent going to put us out of the fight. I too believe Taiwan should do more to defend itself but how we feel is irrelevant. Its US law to destroy any Chinese invasion and you can believe this President would do it. The bottom line is we can win a nuclear war with China.
 
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gixxxerking    Alexis   4/6/2005 1:32:04 PM
"No, Gixxx, you're mistaken. As FS said, the Chinese leadership not being bonkers would ***never*** start a war before having a solid second strike deterrent. They are no Saddam Hussein invading Kuwait without having the first nuke ! The scenario you outline would result in : - ABL being useless (400 km range isn't going to get you anywhere when it comes to ICBMs dispersed in a nation just as large as the US) - Aegis is even worse as far as range is concerned - NMD is already behind schedule now, and will most probably become even more later. Even if it was deployed in a meaningful way, Chinese deterrent of the time could easily overcome it by sheer numbers - B-2s will be deprived of targets as far as fixed ICBMs go (again, the Chinese are not stupid) and they will fail finding mobile ones. The stealthiest bomber is useless if it cannot be fed targeting information, even if it is not shot down thanks to antistealth ground radars What would happen next would be VERY relevant, because that would be a coordinated strike by several tens or more than one hundred DF-41 mobile MIRVed ICBMs against CONUS from mainland China. Out of several hundreds RVs, several tens would be stopped by NMD (IF it is operational ...). The end result would be the loss of both China's and America's most important cities, with consequences that would take several generations being healed. Because that would be the consequences of a US nuclear first strike against China, that nuclear first strike would never happen. Because that first strike would never happen, the Chinese would be free not only to threaten to strike, but also to actually strike landing forces with nuclear weapons. Pardon me to say that you seem to have trouble understanding the word "impossible" when it comes to US military abilities. These are great, but not infinite. Stopping a solid second strike nuclear deterrent is impossible for the US now, and it will remain so in any foreseeable future." --Alexis ---I am not mistaken at all. There is a method to my madness. This scenario, or any non peaceful Chinese reunification scenario, can only result in a US victory or nuclear exchange between US and China. All talk of not getting involved is silly especially when its de facto US law to stop this. So lets discuss reality. Of course the Chinese arent likely to assualt Taiwan for the very reasons I have outlined. It would be the end of China one way or the other. What happens to the US is not the point. But since you brought it up let me correct some of your errors... 1. Aegis and ABL protects Taiwan, Japan and US fleet from Ballistic missiles. Both systems especially Aegis are proving to be quite promissing in this role. 2. NMD is behind but is operational and has been publically declared to be capable right now of stopping limited ICBM attacks. China is only capable of limited ICBM attacks now and in the near future. The have approx 20 publically acknowledged ICBM's and maybe a few more that we likely know about. If all launched in a first strike then yes we will take some RV's. The damage will be severe but recoverable in 5 to 10 years from few dozen RV's. I we use my nuclear first strike plan then the Chinese may no be able to launch any ICBMs back at all! But that is optimistic and 5 to 10 ICBMs could survive to be fired back at US. 5 to 10 ICBMs could be stopped by NMD as it exist today. 3. Fixed ICBM locations are known Alexis and why would the B-2 be deprived of targets? Earth penetrating nuclear bombs could destroy them with ease. Not to mention the SLBMs. 4. OK once and for all stop hating the B-2. It is the ultimate publically declared US bomber. It has LPI radar and was designed to penetrate the Soviet Union and HUNT DOWN MOBILE LAUNCHERS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Lets discuss mobile launchers. If we were talking about the Soviet Union with their vast arsenal then yes 21 bombers roaming aroung could not possibly get enough launchers. But thats why the USAF was looking to buy 100+ B-2s! But China isnt even a shadow of what Russia is today in terms of strategic weapons. 21 B-2's are more than enough to do this job. And they would not be unsupported. Everything from HUMINT to Satellites are used to isolate the locations of Chinese mobile Strategic weapons. These weapons still require logistical support are bigger than Tractor Trailers. It is not difficult to Identify the areas the would disperse to. And the B-2 is networked into so many of board targeting systems that even if its onboard LPI set cant find a target, several dozen other systems will. The few missiles that escape will can an increasingly capable NMD system. Summary Even if I am only 50% correct in my assessment of the US capability, the results are a disaster to China! They would have to be on a suicide mission to tempt fate this way.
 
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PeregrinePike    RE:Gixx - why nukes on US, and not on India, Oz, Japan, or a US fleet?   4/6/2005 2:23:45 PM
"The US fleet I think has an excellent chance to shoot down any Chinese nuke and even Japan should have a limited means to survive anything short of a full ICBM strike." -- So those Ageis systems work better than the Patriot ones? Australia can get (and will probably ask for) some such system before going aginst China. India will have Arrows (and will ask US and Russia for more kinds - hence bleeding the Chinese?) for the same reason. But will such systems be sufficient? - I dont think so... and exposing Allied civilians (especially in high density Japan and India) isn't too good for reputation of a democracy, right? Weigh the political and the economic risks of involving Japan, India, and Australia - three pretty big engines in the world you see. Those little details on protecting those 3 will have to be worked out to fine perfection (very little margin of error here).
 
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