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Subject: Chinese Reunification Scenario
gixxxerking    4/5/2005 2:36:51 PM
China has just invaded Taiwan in a no warning OOTB attack. The speed and ferocity of the attack have beaten back the Taiwanese but not without heavy losses. The Invasion force has suffered 30% to 50% casualties on the ground. Although organized resistance has been broken and the Taiwanese government has ceased to exist, remnants of the Taiwanese military have the Chinese invaders locked in a brutal guerrilla war on the ground and UNDER the sea. It is day 7 and a powerful allied Airforces and fleets are forming but have yet to begin hostilities. The Allies are what remains of Taiwanese defense forces, Japan, South Korea, Australia, India and United States. The EU has condemed the Chinese invasion but has decided to remain nuetral and not supply military equipment during the conflict but will continue trade. Russia has decided to honor its military logistical commitments to China but states that it will not get involved by direct military means. As usual the United Nations is ineffective and useless. No nuclear weapons have been used, yet. The Allies have given the Chinese an unspecified ultimatum to unconditionally withdraw from Taiwan and has put a Naval blockade against all Chinese shipping and air traffic. What does China do next?
 
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french stratege    RE:Chinese Reunification Scenario   4/5/2005 2:46:39 PM
Reinforce and wait (in Taiwan), then threaten to use tactical nukes on any foreign force wich try to land in taiwan. US do nothing obviously as Chinese propose to form a new "autonomous democratic gov" like in Hong kong with a referendum to save US face (and economic interest). maybe they could also propose an help to reunify Korea.Nice attempt with your scenario (more realistic).Of course China has full of mobile MIRVED ICBM before launching invasion to deter as they are not fools. UNO can not do anything because China has great power status and veto. Once it is done(invasion), game is over especially if you have only guerilla!
 
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PeregrinePike    RE:Chinese Reunification Scenario - What do Australia and India do, again?   4/5/2005 2:49:09 PM
What do Australia and India do in a Taiwan take-over scenario, again? In the ideal "China containment" game their places are SouthEast Asia and South West Asia respectively. Maybe, you can integrate Australia into a naval alliance against PRC (highly unadvisible, since it leaves South East area open)... but how about India? They are Russian and Israeli equiped force - more on the hybrid than the Western kind. Both can make a lot of noise and huff-and-puff on China's other borders... but I fear it would drive together all Chinese into an "us vs. the world" struggle. I suggest leaving them out for the moment.
 
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gixxxerking    RE:Chinese Reunification Scenario--fs   4/5/2005 3:08:53 PM
----Very good FS! Now that the nuclear demons have been released this is what happens on day 8. At about 0200 hours local time the the ABL and Aegis Missile defense systems are deployed. the NMD system is on high alert and the USAF has begun to destroy Chinese satellites. The USS Alaska and USS Nevada release their payloads on Chinese targets. Their sorties last 5 to 10 minutes. B-52 deliver stealthy AGM-129's to the bases that serve the Chinese invasion force logistical needs. B-2's deliver earth penetrating nuclear weapons to all known Chinese ICBM sites and they perform their cold war mission HUNTING MOBILE ICBMs! The allied fleet and Airforces move to engage Chinese forces on Taiwan immediately following the nuclear attacks. What happens next is irrelevant because at this point the Chinese invasion is a moot point and the damage to China far outweigh any potential gain. The Chinese leaders who dreamed up invading Taiwan wake up from their nightmares and decide it better to coexist with Taiwan!
 
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displacedjim    RE:Chinese Reunification Scenario--fs   4/5/2005 5:41:30 PM
Could that happen? Yes. Would that happen? Not a chance. We would never nuclear first strike China as part of a war over Taiwan, even if we were virtually certain it was nearly foolproof to completely destroy all their nuclear return strike capability. Displacedjim
 
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gixxxerking    RE:Chinese Reunification Scenario--fs   4/5/2005 6:47:14 PM
Djim, Why do you think we would never do anything? It makes military sense to first strike China especially since we have a great chance to take out their ability to retaliate or at least reduce it to levels that our missile defense could stop. We nuclear first struck Japan did we not? Why let China, who in fs response and in real life, threaten first use have that option? I know there is a huge moral hurdle most people cant jump when it comes to nuclear weapons but history says that we would be likely to do it. And against China its a good option since they have very little to strike back with even before the first strike. No US President will rule out the nuclear options.
 
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Godofgamblers    Kopi Annan stuns the world...   4/5/2005 8:09:58 PM
by sending a very harsh diplomatic note to China's leaders.
 
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Alexis    A better Chinese reunification scenario   4/6/2005 5:55:14 AM
Continued but progressive political liberalization of China, joined with even more intertwining of mainland and Taiwan economic interests, joined with returning to power of the Kuomintang in Taiwan following the great war scares of 2008 and 2011, lead to joint definition of a scheme for reunification by mainland (formerly communist) and island (nationalist) China. The solemn Reunification celebration of Jan 1st, 2029 is widely followed worldwide.
 
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Alexis    This nuclear war could NOT be won in any meaningful sense - to Gixxx   4/6/2005 6:12:11 AM
"Very good FS! Now that the nuclear demons have been released this is what happens on day 8. At about 0200 hours local time the the ABL and Aegis Missile defense systems are deployed. the NMD system is on high alert and the USAF has begun to destroy Chinese satellites. The USS Alaska and USS Nevada release their payloads on Chinese targets. Their sorties last 5 to 10 minutes. B-52 deliver stealthy AGM-129's to the bases that serve the Chinese invasion force logistical needs. B-2's deliver earth penetrating nuclear weapons to all known Chinese ICBM sites and they perform their cold war mission HUNTING MOBILE ICBMs! The allied fleet and Airforces move to engage Chinese forces on Taiwan immediately following the nuclear attacks. What happens next is irrelevant because at this point the Chinese invasion is a moot point and the damage to China far outweigh any potential gain. The Chinese leaders who dreamed up invading Taiwan wake up from their nightmares and decide it better to coexist with Taiwan!" No, Gixxx, you're mistaken. As FS said, the Chinese leadership not being bonkers would ***never*** start a war before having a solid second strike deterrent. They are no Saddam Hussein invading Kuwait without having the first nuke ! The scenario you outline would result in : - ABL being useless (400 km range isn't going to get you anywhere when it comes to ICBMs dispersed in a nation just as large as the US) - Aegis is even worse as far as range is concerned - NMD is already behind schedule now, and will most probably become even more later. Even if it was deployed in a meaningful way, Chinese deterrent of the time could easily overcome it by sheer numbers - B-2s will be deprived of targets as far as fixed ICBMs go (again, the Chinese are not stupid) and they will fail finding mobile ones. The stealthiest bomber is useless if it cannot be fed targeting information, even if it is not shot down thanks to antistealth ground radars What would happen next would be VERY relevant, because that would be a coordinated strike by several tens or more than one hundred DF-41 mobile MIRVed ICBMs against CONUS from mainland China. Out of several hundreds RVs, several tens would be stopped by NMD (IF it is operational ...). The end result would be the loss of both China's and America's most important cities, with consequences that would take several generations being healed. Because that would be the consequences of a US nuclear first strike against China, that nuclear first strike would never happen. Because that first strike would never happen, the Chinese would be free not only to threaten to strike, but also to actually strike landing forces with nuclear weapons. Pardon me to say that you seem to have trouble understanding the word "impossible" when it comes to US military abilities. These are great, but not infinite. Stopping a solid second strike nuclear deterrent is impossible for the US now, and it will remain so in any foreseeable future.
 
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Bluewings    RE:This nuclear war could NOT be won in any meaningful sense - to Gixxx   4/6/2005 10:42:59 AM
What said Alexis ... Cheers .
 
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displacedjim    RE:Chinese Reunification Scenario--fs   4/6/2005 11:10:26 AM
Why do you think we would never do anything? It makes military sense to first strike China especially since we have a great chance to take out their ability to retaliate or at least reduce it to levels that our missile defense could stop. We nuclear first struck Japan did we not? Why let China, who in fs response and in real life, threaten first use have that option? I know there is a huge moral hurdle most people cant jump when it comes to nuclear weapons but history says that we would be likely to do it. And against China its a good option since they have very little to strike back with even before the first strike. No US President will rule out the nuclear options. -- Gixx ---- Because the use of nukes (and all military force, but perhaps nukes most of all) is not governed solely by what makes the best military sense. We have essentially zero ICBM defense today, certainly none worth gambling on as part of a plan that initiates a first strike. Dropping two bombs on a nation that attacked us first, that we had declared war on, and that had zero chance of retaliating in kind is quite different than showing up a day late and a carrier task force short to a Chinese tea party in Taipei and deciding that, since we weren't there to stop China from taking one island and stopping without harming any (or very few) Americans in the process, we'd up and unload hundreds of H-bombs on them in an undeclared war first strike that still absolutely would not be guaranteed to prevent China from retaliating with at least one of their own somehow. While I think the odds are good that this year we could stop all their ICBMs from launching (because they only have a couple dozen and we know where they are), it's still a crap shoot that we'd get every one. The odds that we could intercept even just one is another crap shoot. Why take the chance of getting a city (or more) fried and loosing hundreds of thousands of lives over the fact that the Taiwanese couldn't be bothered enough to actually fight for their own freedom for long enough (like maybe a couple weeks) for us to show up and bail them out? As an aside, there are still other nukes that China might find a way to deliver by unconventional means, and/or launch with their MRBMs at our bases/possessions in Okinawa, Guam, etc. Even "just" losing Guam wouldn't be worth it in my book to launch a first strike against China in this scenario. Actually, even if we could 100% guarantee they couldn't nuke America in return still isn't strong enough in this scenario. Once again, as far as I'm concerned the only people responsible for the liberty of Taiwan is the Taiwanese. Taiwan is certainly strong enough economically that they could afford to prepare themselves sufficiently for their military to at least hold back the PLA and keep the issue in doubt for weeks. This is all the time we'd need to arrive in sufficient force to ensure China's invasion would fail. Therefore, if Taiwan does not do this, then screw them if they cave in early and the PLA occupies them. Displacedjim
 
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