| China's entire military machine is dedicated towards the invasion of Taiwan.
China's 5 year military modernization plan will soon reach a creshendo.
If China invades Taiwan today (2005) it will suffer nearly 600,000 casualties in its initial invasion and nearly another 500,000 losses in conquering Taiwan.
Nearly 1/2 every two Chinese soldier invading Taiwan will die or be wounded.
China has an unlimited supply of man power but the losses in equipement will be so heavy that it will be unable to sustain any attack on Taiwan for long, especially after US starts supplying Taiwan with weaponry.
Taiwan has a very powerful Army, Navy and Air Force.
CHINESE STRATEGY: 2011 INVASION OF TAIWAN
Any Invasion of Taiwan will require a defeat of Taiwan's Air Force.
This has to be achieved within the first few hours.
China's only option is to saturate Taiwanese Air Space with Chinese Bombers and Air Force. That even though Taiwan will shoot down over 1,000 Chinese Planes, Taiwan will it self loose its supply of Air-to-air Missiles, and many of the Runways will be unservicable for fighter Aircraft. China even though will lose around 1,000 Air Craft, will have enough in reserve to sustain groud support for the invasion and give air cover to its naval task force.
USA will not directly engage the Chinese Military. But supplies from Japan and South Korea such as F-16, F-15 Fighters, Aegis Warships could reach Taiwan in time to thwart any Chinese Invasion.
Taiwan's ground Army is quite powerful.
China will suffer massive casualties in its invasion.
China's strategy will be to invade close to Taipei. By Invading close to Taipei and hoping that chinese tanks can withstand the punishment of Taiwan's feared anti-tank forces and the remaining Taiwanese fighters that it can soon cut off Taipei from the rest of Taiwan.
Once that is done, it can re-augment its forces and establish a naval blockade around the northern half of Taiwan.
USA will be forced to take the longer road to re-supply Taiwan from the South.
China hopes to use this time to launch rapid armored thrusts deep into southern Taiwan and the continued arrival of Chinese Infantry.
China hopes to use human waves attack to overwhelm the Taiwanese defenders and finally defeat them.
TAIWANESE/USA STRATEGY:
The US 7th Fleet is one of the most powerful Naval Forces in the World. Any build up of Chinese forces in the strait of Taiwan, the USA will soon be alerted of the impeding invasion of Taiwan. China will hope to mask their intent by engaging many war games. So that any build up chinese forces in the Taiwan strait will look like a war game.
The Taiwanese air-force is quite powerful and will shoot down many chinese fighters if they cross into Taiwanese Air Space. As Soon as Chinese Planes have been detected, USA will rush supplies to Taiwan. Meaning F-16, F-15, F-18. USA will not directly engage the Chinese Forces but give enough armaments to Taiwan to stop the Chinese Invasion.
USA naval forces will not engage the Chinese naval forces but instead will augment the Taiwanese ground amry with enough Abrams Battle Tanks, Bradley Fighting Vehicles. USA will even transfer control of several warships into Taiwanese control so that they can engage the Chinese Invasion Task Force.
Chinese overwhelmingly numerical superiority will be hard to defeat.
The only hope that Taiwan has to defeat the Chinese invading force on the beaches.
USA has one of the fastest supply responese time in the world.
B-52 bombers and C-130 will rapidly give Taiwan enough weapons to defeat any Chinese Invasion. |
