War between Saudia Arabia and Egypt

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SGTObvious Take a Second Look at Great Canadian's Question. 8/18/2003 12:17:39 PM

GC asked "who" not "which of the two". The obvious answer is: The United States, Israel, and to some degree the rest of the non-islamic world.

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celebrim RE:Take a Second Look at Great Canadian's Question. 8/18/2003 2:36:39 PM

This sounds like one of those War College problems your asked to write a paper on just to prove you can analyze a situation that doesn't make alot of sense. My money would be on Egypt, which has huge leads on SA in terms of economic diversity, professionalism of its armed forces, population, and fighting spirit. I don't believe the US would support Saudia Arabia vs. Egypt, in fact if the present Egypt invaded Saudia Arabia, I'm guessing the US would be secretly cheering. I know I would. On the other hand, if there would be some sort of Fundamentalist breakout in Egypt which led to some factions desire to 'reclaim Mecca' with the excuse of Saudi's ties to the US, then you could bet we would take that very very seriously. I tried to look for some possible political scenarios that might lead to a war between SA and Eygpt, but I could find none that even seemed plausible. A couple of remotely plausible scenarios I could come up with was an Arabian front in a larger Sunni vs. Shia war popularly over control of Mecca, but pragmatically involving Sunni fear of Shia dominance of world oil reserves and the accompaning lose of power that would entail. Probably Turkey vs. Iran, and that scenario would itself probably collapse if I knew enough to know where to pick it apart, and of course none of this is going to take place while we are on the ground in Iraq and to make the scenario work you have to come up with some reason to keep the US from directly intervening. Another possible scenario would be a widespread revival of Sayyid Jamal Al-Din's call for a Pan Islamic state in some sort of modernist and progressive form, perhaps supported to some extent at a grass roots level in the Arabian penisula and elsewhere by middle class Arabs as an alternative to the corrupt Sunni autocracies and the repressive luddite Wahhabi death fanatics. Here what we are looking for the arrival of 'the great leader', and one which doesn't scare the piss out of the West but can at the same time engender wide spread admiration from the Islamic world. It might then be possible to see Egypt intervening in a Saudi Arabian civil disturbance.

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Nilefury RE:War between Saudia Arabia and Egypt 9/2/2003 9:27:16 AM

Yes Saudi Arabia would win, but I think it's highly unlikely that they would fight in the first place. :)

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Yamato RE:War between Saudia Arabia and Egypt 9/4/2003 4:56:49 AM

Why a war between Egypt and Saudi arabia? For the leadership in the Arab world? Anyway... In theory, and without thinking that it depend of the domestic and foreign situation at that time, Egypt will win without doubt, and quickly. Saudi Arabia is really a regional tiger of paper. The manpower power of Egypt is far more important. Egypt is a real national army, but Saudi army is made of mercenaries. Than, the Egyptian troops are more motivated and ready for taking risks to protect their land and people. Also, Egypt have also modernization: Abrams, F-16, etc... Now, it's not only Saudi Arabia which have modern weapons. Saudi Arabia is a very divided society,with inner political rivalries. And, the Saudi National Guard is like a private army owhich can be against the royal army. Egyptian army has more experience than Saudi. The organization of the Egyptian army is stronger. They have better training than in Saudi armed forces. And they can fight without support of foreign specialists against a country like Saudi Arabia. At the opposite, Saudi army is nothing without the support of US specialists. and, the US will withdraw from Saudi. Moreover, in the current situation, the US will never fight against Egypt to support Saudi. The situation is even at the opposite. USA have bad relations with Saudi which support perhaps in the secret the Islamist terror. Then, today, the USA will prefer to support Egypt. Anyway, with or without US support, Egypt will win against Saudi Arabia.

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Nilefury RE:War between Saudia Arabia and Egypt 9/4/2003 5:40:26 AM

I wish that was the truth. Saudi Arabia has: 1-M1A2 not in Egypt 2-F-15 not in Egypt 3-Largest military budget in the middle east 4-New IFV El-Fahd which is no laughing matter 5-The money to sustain long operations which Egypt just doesn't have. Egypt's shoping list to stand a fair chance of winning is as follows: 1-200 T-95 (when they are fielded) employing digital control systems used on Leclerc. 2-400 T-90s upgraded with 2nd generation thermal imaging from SAGEM France. 3-800 T-84 all the afore mentioned tanks should try to employ the chinese active laser counter measure used on the Type98 tank. 1-All armour divisions should employ BMPT vheicles in their formations.(3 armour divisions at most) 2-All mech infantry should use BMP-3 as their IFV. (6 Mech infantry divisions not more) 3-Su-37 , Mig-35 , Rafale should be procured for the air force inventory. 4-Buk-m1 , tor-m1 , S-300 SAM systems should be employed. 5-Significant cruise missle ability must be present. 6-Tactical ballistic missle ability should be present. and let alone the navy which can transport most of this equipment SAFLEY to Saudi Arabia under battle conditions. So i think judging by this data we are Far ILL Equiped to fight an island in the carribean. :))) 2-

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StymiestxBlitz RE:Take a Second Look at Great Canadian's Question. 9/4/2003 6:25:13 PM

why would anyone start a war in the Middle east Anyways. The US has 10o's of thousands of troops stationed there. Anyone willing to start a conventional war in the middle east would have to be stark raving mad.

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Thomas RE:Take a Second Look at Great Canadian's Question. 9/5/2003 2:00:56 AM

Well Saddams sanity has been questioned.

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bsl RE:Take a Second Look at Great Canadian's Question. 9/5/2003 7:26:29 PM

1)WHERE would they be fighting? The countries don't share a border. 2)WHY would they be fighting? If Egypt wanted oil, they border on Libya, which is run by a whacko who has given severe provocation to almost everyone, everywhere, at one time or another. And, who has a military which has never shown any aptitude for fighting or even really understanding it's advanced weaponry. There have been times over the last 20 or 30 years when a lot of the world, including even parts of the Islamic world, wouldn't have blinked twice if the Egyptians had moved into Libya. The Saudi Air Force isn't bad, in abstract. Very good equipment. Many pilots trained by America. But, from some conversations I've had with people who've been involved, some years back, I'm not sure whether they can keep those aircraft in service very long under severe conditions. The rest of the Saudi military is a paper tiger. Very expensive, some good equipment, but a lousy force; actually, two forces, since the Saudis divided it into an army, of the mass of Arabians, and a National Guard, much more closely aligned with the Royal Family, precisely so neither part could become strong enough to take over the country, and so one would be available to fight the other if it tried. Their quality of officer is questionalbe, and their quality of enlisted personnel is poor. They suffer from most of the typical weaknesses of the Arab militaries without having any of the sometimes present strengths. For all the criticisms which may be laid at the door of the Egyptian Army, we have every reason to believe that they will fight, if told to fight, and not give up the moment things begin to look difficult. They can be broken, and have been. But, the Saudis may not last past one hard tap. If the Egyptians made any decent showing in the field, they have a real chance to send the Arabians scurrying. It wouldn't work the other way unless a major Egyptian force was really broken.

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Massive RE:My money is on the Egyptians - swhitebull 9/6/2003 2:57:00 AM

The USA should think very very carefully before landing the 1st MEB in a revolutionary Saudi Arabia. This would surely be a way to see the whole middle east region go up in flames. Sure, the US would be able to achieve its immediate military goals - but at what long-term cost?

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recoil RE:War between Saudia Arabia and Egypt 9/6/2003 7:05:33 AM

A war between Egypt and Saudi Arabia is unthinkable given to days political leadership in the two countries (both Sunni countries). The only reason for something like that to happen would be an Islamic revolt in one of the countries. A new strong Islamic leader would perhaps want unite the divided arab world by force. The old arab leaders would perhaps think that a pre-emptive strike would serve in there interest. The most likely war scenario in the middle east after the fall of Sadam is Israel Vs. some Arab (perhaps Iranian) coalition. Other possible scenarios would be Egypt Vs. Sudan (no question about who would be victorious) if Sudan gets to involved in supporting anti Mubarak fractions. Yemen Vs. Saudi Arabia (I think they got some border disputes). Iran might try get into some sort of limited military confrontation with the coalition in Iraq (supporting militant anti-US Shiites), Israel (ballistic rocket war) or Turkey (border clashes). The reason for this would be to rally support behind the increasingly unpopular Iranian regime (nothing like an outside enemy for that purpose). By the way, why not focus on the most pressing military confrontation of today: Canada Vs. Sweden (given that Luxembourg chose to remains neutral).

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