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Subject: Morocco vs Spain
Tercio    2/25/2004 4:04:56 PM
A "What if" scenario. War between Morocco and Spain, Morocco hits first. In order to consider only a Morocco vs Spain engagement, it is assumed that Morocco manage to avoid Nato enters the war (for instance, Morocco focus its military operations in Spanish enclaves in North Africa: Ceuta, Melilla et al. Since they are not covered by Nato agreements, Nato has not to automatically join Spain in the fight). What do you think about the following?: - Who would win?. - Which strategy would adopt each one?. - Which support would have each one?. - Who would take advantage of this war?. - Could this conflict scalate from regional to something bigger?. - What secondary effects would have this conflict in other topics: war on terrorism, UN, EU...? Regards.
 
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Tercio    RE:Morocco vs Spain. A possible scenario   3/4/2004 1:55:06 PM
We're talking about different issues, of course few people out Spain see Western Sahara as Spanish, few people INSIDE Spain see Western Sahara as Spanish neither (Spain left Western Sahara in 1975). A great number of Spaniards has simpathy to Western Sahara people because they consider Saharuis oppressed by Moroccans. Spanish enclaves (please don't get confused, Western Sahara is one thing and the so called Spanish enclaves (Ceuta, Melilla et al) is another) were not the result of the colonial wars of the late 1800's-early 1900's. Some of them are under Spanish rule earlier in history (and without interruption) than some parts of Peninsular Spain (for instance, Granada, incorporated in 1492). That's the reason the Spanish enclaves ARE NOT included in the UN list of colonial territories, expected to be returned. In the case of an attack from Morocco, Spain would be in the situation of defending itself of an aggression, then I doubt UN would condemn Spain (as it didn't condemn Britain in the Falklands war), in any case it would condemn Morocco (as it did with Serbia and Irak). About supports: - NATO: Ceuta, Melilla et al are not under NATO umbrella, it would be up to the members decide to join Spain anyways or not. - France: A big question mark. It has to choice between its interest in Marocco and supporting one of its mates in Nato/EU. A support of France to Morocco in a war versus Spain would blow up any possibility of going further in the political union of the EU (which credibility would have France among other EU countries after that?). - EU: I guess it would support Spain since it is attacked, but not provide military support, I presume. - Lybia: It is one of the champions of the Pan-Arabism, it would probably give some support to Morocco. - Argelia: Morocco and Argelia are traditional adversaries. It would remain neutral or it would try to get advantage of the situation (try something in the Western Sahara?). - Saudi Arabia. Another question mark. They were very active in the 1973 Oil crisis (after the Yom-Kippur war), but it wasn't so active when Israel went into Libanon). - Egypt. They probably would support Morocco in the diplomatic field, I don't think they would close Suez. The Araba word is far to be homogoneus, and farther to be united (Israel, GW1&2 have shown it), would it be the occasion for getting Arab unity?, I don't know...
 
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Landser1944    RE:Morocco vs Spain. A possible scenario   3/4/2004 2:22:30 PM
"- EU: I guess it would support Spain since it is attacked, but not provide military support, I presume." I am not sure about a little fighting around the spanish enclaves, but if marocco attacks the spanish mainland, i am pretty sure everybody in europe will step in to help. I don't think any european country has to worry about aggressive neighbours right now.
 
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northernguy    RE:Morocco vs Spain. A possible scenario..Tercio ..   3/4/2004 6:06:10 PM
Tercio.. If Morocco attacks as has been the assumption on most of the posts in this thread then the response of NATO and the E.U. is likely to be actively supportive of Spain. On the other hand if Morocco did a redirected repeat of the Green March the issue would not be so clear cut. France obstructed Spain's efforts before and might well do so again. Short of an actual slaughter of the Spanish citizens of the enclaves France's outright opposition is a very real possibility. I'm aware that Spain had possession of the enclaves before Morocco was formed as a country. But such legal niceties often mean nothing especially in Europe. What counts is if Morocco could mobilise few thousand souls willing to take a chance on martyring themselves at the city (county?) limits. If it becomes difficult to determine who started shooting first (and it often does in these things) then the issue becomes much less clear than when, say, NATO refused to provide missile defense batteries for fellow NATO member Turkey's defense against attack by Sadaam. Some NATO countries on their own provided some assistance but NATO itself refused for very obvious unrelated political reasons. Spain could easily find itself whistling dixie when it comes to getting E.U. support. I'm aware of the difference between the Western Sahara and the enclaves but my guess is that in the runup to a shooting war with Morocco over the enclaves, the opportunity to right an old wrong and "free" the oppressed people of all parts of Morocco that seems fitting, will be demanded by the general population. Algeria is a competitor of Morocco's and under normal circumstances would not come to Morocco's support on any issue. But with it's own fundamentalist problems, it might well decide to prove that it is a bigger, badder, meaner Muslim country than anyone, even to the point of fighting the crusading infidels and thus needs all the support of all of it's population at this pivotal time. Ditto for the Saudis only without the fighting part. Remarkably, Egypt sees itself as the senior Arab country and definitely the one country that should be providing leadership. Egypt does have all those F-16s and Abrams tanks. Would Egypt close the Suez? No! But would it stop and inspect all ships headed to Europe to make sure they weren't carrying war materiel for Spain and it's allies.. definitely a possibility. From the point of view of Europe, such a situation would look remarkably like having the canal closed. Would/could the Arab world unite around Moroco in this scenario. Not if NATO and/or the U.S. were supporting Spain. But against Spain alone? Why not? Can Spain defeat Morocco's military forces? Yes, easily. Can Spain conquer and hold Moroccan territroy indefinitley. No, not without spending billions and losing thousands of lives. Would the Arab world unite against Spain if it alone was fighting Morocco? Most likely. Can Spain be sure it would not be fighting alone? No, even if given assurances by some other European countries. Northernguy
 
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Aussiegunner    RE:Morocco vs Spain..northernguy   3/5/2004 2:36:35 AM
Northernguy, You fail to take into account that Spain has been an active ally in the War on Terror. I know Morocco has been as well, but the Western vs Muslim scenario that you outline would have to involve a shift in Morrocan loyalties, towards Islamic fundamentalism. With the War on Terror the formost security of the momenent, I simply do not see the US abandoning a Western ally interests, to those of an Islamic nation that has just turned its coat. As for the hordes of Muslims volenteering for service, I doubt it would make much difference. At the end of the day they still have to be armed to beat a modern military in a conventional war and Morocco can't afford to do that. Are there many disenfranchised Moroccans, in the Spanish enclaves? If there were, supporting a protracted gurrilla campaign might wear Spain down. However, in a conventional campaign, I'd back Spain all the way.
 
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SGTObvious    Now there we'd have no problem, Northernguy   3/5/2004 7:01:23 AM
On the suez canal: "Would Egypt close the Suez? No! But would it stop and inspect all ships headed to Europe to make sure they weren't carrying war materiel for Spain and it's allies.. definitely a possibility." Well then... ships from the USA and Canada would have to avoid the Suez and reach Spain via the Atlantic, wouldn't they? Don't ya love living in a nation with ports on both ends?
 
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SGTObvious    Spain would never be Alone   3/5/2004 7:04:43 AM
"Can Spain be sure it would not be fighting alone? No, even if given assurances by some other European countries." What do they need Europe for? There are far, far more Americans who will say "Viva España!" that "Allah Akbar!"
 
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Tercio    RE:Morocco vs Spain. A possible scenario-Landser1944   3/5/2004 3:31:11 PM
"I am not sure about a little fighting around the spanish enclaves, but if marocco attacks the spanish mainland, i am pretty sure everybody in europe will step in to help". Agree, if the fight remians only Morocco vs Spain and restricted to the Spanish enclaves, my guess is both US and European countries would try to not get military involved (and both would use diplomacy extensively for getting a cease of fire). Otherwise, I also think that would change if fighting reachs Spanish mainland (for instance, US shares two military facilities with Spain, Rota NAS and Moron AFB, both in the south of Spain, both heavily used for supporting US troops in Irak and both potencial targets for Morocco).
 
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Tercio    RE:Morocco vs Spain. A possible scenario-Northenguy   3/5/2004 4:06:13 PM
You have raised some good points. To my view: Arab countries would condemn Spain,let its citizens to join the war as volunteers, provide some support (financial support?). I don't believe Arab countries would fight alongside Morocco, they would give some gestures in favour of Morocco and contempt their islamists, but I don't believe they would go further. Anyways, a coalition of Arab countries created for fighting Spain would be something very dangerous, and not only for Spain. That movement would raise huge concerns in US, EU. A victory for Spain would be to defeat Moroccan army and hold the enclaves, Spain would not try to conquer Morocco, neither retake Western Sahara nor something of that like. One thing is to repel an aggression and another to try to build a Protectorate in Morocco...
 
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northernguy    RE:Morocco vs Spain..northernguy..Aussiegunner..   3/5/2004 4:08:49 PM
Aussiegunner makes a number of valid points and then quite reasonably asks if there are a number of "disenfranchised" Moroccans already in the enclaves who could present a considerable threat to the Spanish military. I don't know how many of Moroccans living in the enclaves have the vote but the most dissatisfied enclave residing Moroccans are those who keep getting thrown out only to sneak back to enjoy the superior living standards and life style available in the enclaves when compared to that of Morocco itself. That is definitely not a combat problem for the Spanish. There is no "Free the enclave one hundred thousand" movement, there is no "Spanqui go home" graffiti on the walls. Much of the current military presence is intended to keep Moroccans from voting with their feet and moving into the enclave for the opportunities presented by Spanish authority systems and culture. Northernguy
 
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Tercio    RE:Morocco vs Spain..Aussiegunner   3/5/2004 4:12:18 PM
"Are there many disenfranchised Moroccans, in the Spanish enclaves? If there were, supporting a protracted gurrilla campaign might wear Spain down." The number of Moroccans living in the enclaves (and in Spanish mainland) is not small, the Straits of Gibraltar is the Rio Grande of Western Europe. As a consequence, the possibility of having Moroccans agents infiltrated in both enclaves and mainland (and able to perform sabotage, espionage, urban guerrilla and son on... can not be neglected.
 
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