Morocco vs Spain

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Aussiegunner RE:Morocco vs Spain - Northern Guy 3/3/2004 6:17:18 AM

Do you really think that if it came to symbolise a broader Islamic/Western conflict, that the US wouldn't side with Spain? Of course it would, especially given that Spain is one of its more supportive allies these days. In any case, modern weapons do make a big difference. Case point, the hordes of extremists volenteering to attack Israel in the name of Islam haven't succeeded in destroying that nation. If the Morrocans attacked the Spanish enclaves, they would be seriously disadvantaged and it would probably show in the result.

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densoflex RE:Morocco vs Spain 3/3/2004 9:44:55 AM

Let's come back to Tercio's original post and the most likely departure point of a war between Spain and Marocco: a direct threat by Moroccans to Spanish enclaves in Africa. Perhaps would it be interesting as a preliminary, to know what were the Western powers reactions to the Moroccan Green March of the 70s? Tercio?

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Tercio RE:Morocco vs Spain 3/3/2004 11:06:42 AM

Good point. In 1975 Morocco launched a massive operation called "Green March". Thousands of Moroccan civilians were placed along the Spanish Sahara-Morocco border, the idea was to cross the border and advance towards Spanish territory, so the only possibility Spain had to defend that land would be to fire un-armed civilians. Since some years ago, a group called Polisario (supported by Argelia, friends of Moscu at that time), was attacking Spanish military posts and claiming Spanish Sahara independence from Spain. So the Western powers had three choices to support: Morocco, Polisario and Spain. They didn't want to support Spain because Franco was still in power (formally, actually he was dying and Prince Juan Carlos was acting as head of the State) and that wasn't a very popular option among the western public opinions. They didn't want to support Polisario because nobody wanted a Polisario led independent Sahara, likely a puppet state of Argelia (and Moscu, by extension), so Western powers decided to remain neutral or actively support Morocco (France supported it because its traditional ties, US dit it too because the king of Morocco had reduced to nothing any clue of Communism in Morocco). As a consecuence Spain was isolated and things ready to go even worse if Spanish troops had started to open fire to unarmed Moroccan civilians if they would have started to cross the border. Since Spain had enough problems at home (Franco was close to die, a new political regimen was arriving behind the scenes), it decided to leave the Spanish Sahara under UN supervision, but the actual result was that Morocco took control of the land, and a fight between Morocco and Polisario started, for the years to come...

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densoflex RE:Morocco vs Spain 3/3/2004 11:27:36 AM

Ok Tercio, thanks. I did recall this episode. Of course Spain lost Western Sahara, but at least did it avoid you years of war with Polisario which wouldn't have been popular at home at a time when the US disaster in Vietnam was fresh in everyone's mind. So the Moroccans carried out the job. I think they lost hundreds if not thousands of men.

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Tercio RE:Morocco vs Spain 3/3/2004 3:15:18 PM

Good point again. Spain couldn't afford a war at that time, Juan Carlos was trying to consolidate his position as head of state, and initiate the process of transforming Spain from a dictatorship to a democracy. He could have never defeated the die hard supporters of Franco's legacy without international support, and a war for Western Sahara would have meant the absolute isolation of Spain. The only alternative to have avoid the Moroccan occupation of Western Sahara I can imagine would have involved to have given the independence to Western Sahara, making sure that the new state would have been western friendly and strong enough to keep both Morocco and Polisario (and its Russian friends) out. But of course, this is easier to say than to do...

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northernguy RE:Morocco vs Spain 3/3/2004 3:20:48 PM

I'm not at all convinced that the U.S. or NATO would get involved in a shooting war against Muslims with the objective of securing Spain's continued ownership of apparently worthless islands that appear to be located in Morocco itself. Spain's government is currently an ally of the U.S. but it's policies are not universally popular within the country. Morocco is also an ally but one whose population won't turf out the government in the next election (there won't be any elections in the way that we understand them). Morocco just signed a free trade agreement with the U.S. Spain is launching the first salvo in a joint trade war with the U.S. Morocco determines it's own trade and foreign policy according to whatever factors appear to be in it's interest. Spain has no independant trade policy capacity and must limit it's foreign policy so as not to disprupt it's externally directed economy. If it chose to, Morocco could borrow, from the U.S., whatever was needed to recruit and mobilise a couple of divisions which it could then deploy whereever it chose to. Spain does not have that option. Other actors decide how big a deficit Spain can run and how much inflationary pressure it can export to it's neighbours. There is no real downside for not supporting Spain and plenty for acting militarily against Morocco. Without the U.S. and NATO, the questions I posed in my post of 2/27/04 become the determining factors. Under those circumstances Spain can't win. Northernguy

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northernguy RE:Morocco vs Spain..northernguy.. correction 3/3/2004 8:07:10 PM

another damned typo: quote There is no real downside for not supporting Spain and plenty for acting militarily against Morocco endquote should read There is no real downside for not supporting Spain and plenty _of downside_ for acting militarily against Morocco. end of correction I should add that all the arguments that Spain advances wrt to the islands off Morocco are categorically rejected by Spain when they are applied to Gibralter's territoriality being something seperate from Spain. Northernguy

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densoflex RE:Morocco vs Spain. A possible scenario 3/4/2004 8:56:22 AM

A possible scenario for war could be the following: Being under pressure from Islam radical groups, King Muhammad VI decides to relieve the pressure on him in uniting his people on a popular theme, the recovery of the Spanish Enclaves (following a classic pattern). Of course, since Spanish troops stationed there aren't exactly military midgets, he needs to mass suitable forces, which can hardly pass unnoticed, but prevent the Spaniards from sending reinforcements without opening the hostilities. First question, Tercio: what might be the Spanish public reaction? A public uproar (such as the British one during the Falkland crisis) or, on the contrary, a total lack of interest for these remote African enclaves?

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Tercio RE:Morocco vs Spain. A possible scenario 3/4/2004 11:15:32 AM

To mo view, Spanish public would support to defend the enclaves. When the Parsley affaire popped up, the Spanish public got really upset. To be honest with you, Spanish public has not a very good opinion of the Moroccan policy to Spain, in general terms. The Western Sahara is generally viewed as an ugly affaire, where Morocco took advantge of the Spanish weakness at that time and where the real losers were the Western Sahara people (Saharauis, as they are called in Spanish, have a large support among Spaniards). I believe Spanish public would not tolerate another "Green March".

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northernguy RE:Morocco vs Spain. A possible scenario 3/4/2004 12:34:44 PM

Tercio.. I'm curious if this Spanish popular sentiment would prevail after the expenditure of tens of billions of dollars and perhaps the lives thousands of Spanish troops. Once the Spanish start in on the enclaves they will pretty well have to deal with the Western Sahara "problem". Taking the genie out of the adventurist bottle will impel the Spanish to try to secure wishes that aren't apparent in the beginning. In essence they will have to conquer Morocco. You should know that outside of Spain few people see any part of the Sahara as legitimately a part of Spain. What would Spain do in the face of U.N. condemnation? If Lybia offers support to Morocco? If Saudi Arabia offers money to Morocco? Lots and lots of it. What would Europe do if the Saudis started manipulating oil prices and availability? What would Spain do if Algeria decided to offer financial support to Morocco? What if Algeria manipulated it's pricing and availability of it's massive Euro bound natural gas shipments? Would France risk alienating Algeria by maitaining Franco/Spanish solidarity? Would France pass up the opportunity to exploit diplomatic and economic possibilities opened up by the conflict? Would Egypt stay neutral in a conflict between a European "imperialist" land grab and Muslim, Arab countries in Northern Africa? If they weren't neutral how would they use their control of the Suez? I could go on but the point is you can't just count ships and planes to see who would win a conflict. Yes Spain could win a particular battle for a particular island but win a war with Morocco over Spains claim to Muslim, Arab territory in North Africa? No way!! Even Spain believes such historical claims are invalid at least as they apply to the treaty between Spain and Britain over Gibralter. This board is about strategy after all. What strategy would Spain have other than a historical contempt for the people of Morocco. Northernguy

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