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Subject: Morocco vs Spain
Tercio    2/25/2004 4:04:56 PM
A "What if" scenario. War between Morocco and Spain, Morocco hits first. In order to consider only a Morocco vs Spain engagement, it is assumed that Morocco manage to avoid Nato enters the war (for instance, Morocco focus its military operations in Spanish enclaves in North Africa: Ceuta, Melilla et al. Since they are not covered by Nato agreements, Nato has not to automatically join Spain in the fight).

What do you think about the following?:

- Who would win?.
- Which strategy would adopt each one?.
- Which support would have each one?.
- Who would take advantage of this war?.
- Could this conflict scalate from regional to something bigger?.
- What secondary effects would have this conflict in other topics: war on terrorism, UN, EU...?

Regards.
 
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Desert Rat    RE:Morocco vs Spain   2/26/2004 3:37:33 AM
I think that Spain would win, but it might not be easy. I'm sure Spain could count on some help from other European nations, but Morocco probably wouldn't get much support ( who wants to take on Spain and possibly Britain, France and the rest of European Nato?) The U.S. would certainly give its moral support and maybe contribute some force, but i doubt it. They probably wouldn't want to get involved too much. I don't think it would escalate into anything too big, but it would be fairly intense; probably be on a scale comparable to the Falklands conflict between Argentina and Gt. Brit. Commandoes would undoubtedly be used extensively, since it would be impractical to use large numbers of troops around in small areas. The air war would be big, since Spain and Morocco are so close together and are both equiped with at least farily modern aircraft, and the Spannish Navy may well take a beating from Morrocon missiles ( us Brits learnt that in the Falkalands, missiles are really difficult to counter). I think the real consequences would be a much stronger EU, with the motivation to forge more joint military capabilities and definatley a big budget increase for spannish military branches! Hope these views answer your question, Desert Rat
 
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Tercio    RE:Morocco vs Spain   2/26/2004 10:45:54 AM
Sure!, those views are quite illustrative. Thanks!, Tercio
 
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northernguy    RE:Morocco vs Spain   2/27/2004 8:25:08 PM
If such a conflict came to acquire symbolic value in the Arab/muslim world it could get a little dicy for Spain. What if Morocco showed up with a hundred thousand volunteers. Assuming Spain was not being actively supported by NATO or the E.U. (and they might not be supported in fighting to keep possessions in continental Africa) then Spain would run out of ammunition for it's modern weapons before Morocco ran out of willing fighters. The humiliation of the loss of the Moorish Empire is a constantly running theme in Islamo-fascist discourse. If they can't beat America and they surely haven't been able to, at least they could beat Spain. How many thousands of lives would Spain be prepared to lose to keep possessions of little real value. Ten, fifty, a hundred thousand? How many billions of dollars would Spain spend to keep those little pieces of land. Ten, fifty, a hundred billion? Remember, to win, all Morocco has to do is make Spain go away! For Spain to win, they more or less have to conquer Morocco. Northernguy
 
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1stcavman    RE:Morocco vs Spain   2/27/2004 8:43:32 PM
I think Spain wins but at what cost. Spain has troops trained to respond to such a scenario who are quite good. NATO involves itself if for example Morrocco becomes a radical Islamic state along the lines of Iran. I cannot see Europe wanting that type of state on it's doorstep. But for Spain, after winning, what do they hold and is it worth holding.
 
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Worcester    RE:Morocco vs Spain   2/29/2004 8:16:27 PM
Where do you draw the line in Morocco? Isn't there a traditonal Spanish Foreign Legion? Does it still exist and wasn't it based in Morocco?
 
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Worcester    RE:Morocco vs Spain   2/29/2004 8:17:49 PM
I'm having trouble getting a Moorish order of battle. Do they have one? Time was the uS was also an ally of Morocco - when we based bombers there - and I'm not sure how we'd react. Now, if you'd said Spain vs. Libya!
 
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Tercio    RE:Morocco vs Spain   3/1/2004 11:17:24 AM
That Morocco vs Spain came to my mind after reading some articles about the Parsley island incident two years ago. At that time Morocco placed some troops there and Spain re-took the island some days later, without a single shot. In the meantime EU was not able to arrive to a common position (Italy and others supported Spain, France vetoed any iniciative to support explictly Spain due to its strong ties with the king of Morocco). Once Spain had retaken the island US, which didn't want a conflict between to of its allies in the war of terrorism (both Morocco and Spain have scored some success seizing Al-Qaeda terrorists), managed an arrange which meant a come back to the original status, that is, Parsley island it's still on dispute, but no one has troops there. About the Spanish enclaves in North Africa, some of them are esentially worthless (Parsley itself, for instance), but Ceuta and Melilla have roughly 70000 inhabitants each, and they are not particularly interested in becoming Moroccan citizens, so Spain has strong reasons to fight. Spain has deployed in Ceuta: 1 Spanish Foreign Legion Regiment 1 Regulares (Light infantry, similar to the Spanish Foreing Legion). 1 Armor Regiment 1 Artillery Regiment The units deployed in Melilla are roughly similar. Spain has also troops, fighters and ships in Canary island, apart of the units in the mainland. Tercio
 
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Landser1944    RE:Morocco vs Spain   3/1/2004 2:53:32 PM
A war like this could only be started by marocco and that means the NATO would react immidiatly, it would be a desaster for marocco.
 
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Aussiegunner    RE:Morocco vs Spain   3/2/2004 2:19:07 PM
I've been reading listings of the Moroccan and Spanish air force and navy strengths and types of equipment. Are the Spanish enclaves within range of Morrocan land-based air? If they were, then the Morrocans wouldn't have a chance in the air, as their airforce is about a quarter of the size of Spains and is far less advanced. If it weren't, it would be left up to Spains 16 Harriers, a far better match for Morroco with about 50 F-1's and F-5's. At sea, the Spanish are completely dominant. The Morrocan navy doesn't even have submarines, so couldn't mount a decent interdiction effort.
 
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northernguy    RE:Morocco vs Spain   3/2/2004 5:18:05 PM
The disparity in size of air and sea resources between Morocco and Spain are irrelevant for the reasons that I mentioned in my previous post. Spain is severely disadavantaged from a strategic point of view. You have to do more than count ships or planes to get around that! Northernguy
 
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Aussiegunner    RE:Morocco vs Spain - Northern Guy   3/3/2004 6:17:18 AM
Do you really think that if it came to symbolise a broader Islamic/Western conflict, that the US wouldn't side with Spain? Of course it would, especially given that Spain is one of its more supportive allies these days. In any case, modern weapons do make a big difference. Case point, the hordes of extremists volenteering to attack Israel in the name of Islam haven't succeeded in destroying that nation. If the Morrocans attacked the Spanish enclaves, they would be seriously disadvantaged and it would probably show in the result.
 
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densoflex    RE:Morocco vs Spain   3/3/2004 9:44:55 AM
Let's come back to Tercio's original post and the most likely departure point of a war between Spain and Marocco: a direct threat by Moroccans to Spanish enclaves in Africa. Perhaps would it be interesting as a preliminary, to know what were the Western powers reactions to the Moroccan Green March of the 70s? Tercio?
 
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Tercio    RE:Morocco vs Spain   3/3/2004 11:06:42 AM
Good point. In 1975 Morocco launched a massive operation called "Green March". Thousands of Moroccan civilians were placed along the Spanish Sahara-Morocco border, the idea was to cross the border and advance towards Spanish territory, so the only possibility Spain had to defend that land would be to fire un-armed civilians. Since some years ago, a group called Polisario (supported by Argelia, friends of Moscu at that time), was attacking Spanish military posts and claiming Spanish Sahara independence from Spain. So the Western powers had three choices to support: Morocco, Polisario and Spain. They didn't want to support Spain because Franco was still in power (formally, actually he was dying and Prince Juan Carlos was acting as head of the State) and that wasn't a very popular option among the western public opinions. They didn't want to support Polisario because nobody wanted a Polisario led independent Sahara, likely a puppet state of Argelia (and Moscu, by extension), so Western powers decided to remain neutral or actively support Morocco (France supported it because its traditional ties, US dit it too because the king of Morocco had reduced to nothing any clue of Communism in Morocco). As a consecuence Spain was isolated and things ready to go even worse if Spanish troops had started to open fire to unarmed Moroccan civilians if they would have started to cross the border. Since Spain had enough problems at home (Franco was close to die, a new political regimen was arriving behind the scenes), it decided to leave the Spanish Sahara under UN supervision, but the actual result was that Morocco took control of the land, and a fight between Morocco and Polisario started, for the years to come...
 
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densoflex    RE:Morocco vs Spain   3/3/2004 11:27:36 AM
Ok Tercio, thanks. I did recall this episode. Of course Spain lost Western Sahara, but at least did it avoid you years of war with Polisario which wouldn't have been popular at home at a time when the US disaster in Vietnam was fresh in everyone's mind. So the Moroccans carried out the job. I think they lost hundreds if not thousands of men.
 
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Tercio    RE:Morocco vs Spain   3/3/2004 3:15:18 PM
Good point again. Spain couldn't afford a war at that time, Juan Carlos was trying to consolidate his position as head of state, and initiate the process of transforming Spain from a dictatorship to a democracy. He could have never defeated the die hard supporters of Franco's legacy without international support, and a war for Western Sahara would have meant the absolute isolation of Spain. The only alternative to have avoid the Moroccan occupation of Western Sahara I can imagine would have involved to have given the independence to Western Sahara, making sure that the new state would have been western friendly and strong enough to keep both Morocco and Polisario (and its Russian friends) out. But of course, this is easier to say than to do...
 
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