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Subject: NATO Spearhead Force Aimed At Russia
SYSOP    2/25/2015 5:58:47 AM
 
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joe6pack    Sounds like politics to me..   2/25/2015 2:10:44 PM
That NATO would have to form composite BRIGADES (not divisions.. or corps...) and that they need 6-7 nations to piece together 3 Brigades... is pitiful..
 
And the training and integration... would surely be lacking..
 
And that it would take a week to mobilize the 2nd Brigade.. to move within the Europe..
 
Am I just being cynical / pessimist.. or does that really not sound very good to the rest of you??
 
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trenchsol       2/25/2015 3:06:57 PM
The force is good as deterrent, but I don't think Russia aims to attack NATO country. Increasing provocations against Sweden can be interpreted like neutral countries are easier targets.
 
What I think Russia will try to do is to make some countries want to leave NATO. Russia might want to exploit the fact that extreme left still sees Russia as protector, although there are not many left wing ideas in Russian politics today. Those freaks, somehow, still believe that Russia is the leader of international Left, pretty much against common sense. Those left extremists might win elections in some countries, like they did in Greece. Indeed, Greek ruling coalition did reach out to Russia few days after election victory.
 
It is not going to happen in countries where Russia is particularly disliked, like Poland, Bohemia or Baltic states, but there are other European countries with strong left leanings which never experienced Russian boot stomping on them. They might become good candidates for leaving NATO and hosting Russian troops on their territory.
 
 
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Spiky    Spain   2/25/2015 6:07:40 PM
"The major contributors to the Spearhead force will be the United States France, Germany, Italy, Poland, Spain and Britain.".......... Spain? That's surprising.
 
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Mikko    Readiness   2/26/2015 4:26:10 AM
Here's the question: did NATO or anyone else get any forewarning that the Spetsnaz et al. were going to deploy in Crimea and eastern Ukraine year ago?
 
If there is a NATO brigade ready to go out in 48 hours there are five (experienced) Russian brigades deploying in day. How Russia appears to be doing this is that they use unconventional means that don't trigger a military response. They keep on doing that stuff until there is enough confusion and also expectations from whatever fifth column they have, and *bam* deploy faster than anyone can react to. 
 
Of course everyone is learning that game now and understand the writings of the wall that say little green men are coming. An international mosaic brigade deploying with 48 hours' notice still feels a bit sluggish; destined to contain rather than defend in the first place.
 
And here's the other problem: The Russian media environment is such that whatever deployment they do they are marketed as always preventing genocides and protecting Russian-speaking population. NATO deploys against that and needs to attack to gain back lost ground and that can always be seen as an open aggression against legitimate Russian interests. A hybrid aggression requires a hybrid counter-force. Haven't seen much of that yet. 
 
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trenchsol       2/26/2015 7:01:17 AM
Mikko, I understood that those rapid reaction forces are there to protect NATO members, which is self defense. NATO members are supposed to have their own armed forces which should be able to meet some minimal standards and RRF is there to reinforce them.
 
I might be wrong, but RRF is not supposed to go to Ukraine or some other neutral country.
 
 
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Mikko       2/26/2015 7:29:23 AM
Trenchsol;
True that. Ukraine was a lost case to begin with and not a NATO country. But the Russian toolbox against its neighboring NATO-countries will probably be similar. They are learning through hard experience their hybrid war -concept.
 
I don't know the case for Baltic countries' readiness to respond to the hybrid warfare surprises. Based on a quick Wikipedia stint Latvia for example has less than a thousand active duty personnel in its land forces so I would say the Spearhead Force is a crucial element of defence and containment for any instance where physical force is used.
 
(I can't even believe the stuff we are writing about but it only takes one look at recent events to remind this is not a bad dream.) 
 
 
 
 
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trenchsol       2/26/2015 12:50:59 PM
I know that NATO has some requirements for member countries. They are different for each country and I don't know how are they being determined.
 
 
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joe6pack    Mikko - Tren   2/26/2015 1:32:03 PM
NATO "guidelines" want a minimal of 2% GDP on defense spending.. Which all things considered (and past history) is extraordinarily low.   And less than a handful of member nations (less than 5 I think) are spending even that much.
 
The "Spearhead" (based on the article) seems to me to be more of a political statement than a military one.. It's truly a sad display of capability.. or lack there of.

Now, politics may be more important, because I agree it seems unlikely Russia will really engage a NATO member.. 
 
That said.. there were no few Admirals sitting around Pearl Harbor thinking about what pitiful warriors the Japanese were and not particularly clever.. and couldn't really use torpedoes in such a shallow harbor.. and if they were going to cause trouble.. it would be somewhere else...   
 
It's a dangerous thing to underestimate the capabilities or intentions of the enemy..  And also dangerous to assume they wouldn't act in a what we would consider an irrational manner..
 
If "I" was a defense minister of a country with a border with Russia... I'd bail out of any land mine treaty that may have been signed.. And start seeding the border with mines and obstacles..  Anything to slow down a possible incursion.. because the NATO reaction is not going to be as fast or robust as it really should be..
 
 
 
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Nate Dog    Is it enough   2/26/2015 6:43:35 PM
My 2 cents,
Probably, at a bare minimum, it'll just be enough.
What worked in Crimea will never work anywhere else. To whit, insertion of a few brigades worth of troops clandestinely,  worked there because they were russian looking speaking 'civilians' (who looked, talked, behaved the exact same as every other Crimean inhabitant) who simply drove across an open border in personal vehicles, donned their uniforms, and BAM, instant occupying force.
Were they to try that into Poland, the poor sods would be turned back at the border, or worse, if actually allowed in, beaten up by irate locals before they could manage to form into units. The further west or south or north you go, the worse the above scenario gets, at least Poland is a little Slavic looking/sounding. 
 
5 ready brigades, competent and well armed/trained should be enough, at least in a defensive posture to deal with a Russian invasion. With western Intel, so long as it doesn't fail too badly, should be enough notice to get them up and positioned should the Russians actually try something as raw as an outright invasion. While they may be able to field half a division in Ukraine, that's just over the border, where logistics, language and sundry aren't such a barrier, when they start getting a tank load of fuel away from supply lines (Call it 1/10th of the way across Poland) they'll start running into some serious issues.
 
My 2 cents.
 
 
 
 
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joe6pack    Poland vs Baltics   2/26/2015 7:25:19 PM
Yeah, the Poles seem to be taking the situation seriously - and worst case would stand and fight.
 
I'd be a little more concerned if I was in Estonia or Latvia..  "If" (and it's a BIG if) the Russians had their #&@^t together, they could roll them up pretty quickly...  and would NATO be willing to go on the offensive to toss the Russians out?
 
And just realizing I misread the article: "one would have units ready to move within 48 hours with the rest of the brigade moving within a week." 

Wow... so, in reality.."maybe" we have a reinforced battalion task-force moving in 48 hours.. totally inadequate..  And that would probably be light infantry (ish)..
 
Not saying I believe any of that is probable.. but again.. if I were a defense minister.. I'd have that in mind..
 
 
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