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Subject: Mission to Apophis
Le Zookeeper    12/31/2009 3:13:54 AM
MOSCOW – Russia's space agency chief said Wednesday a spacecraft may be dispatched to knock a large asteroid off course and reduce the chances of earth impact, even though U.S. scientists say such a scenario is unlikely. Anatoly Perminov told Golos Rossii radio the space agency would hold a meeting soon to assess a mission to Apophis. He said his agency might eventually invite NASA, the European Space Agency, the Chinese space agency and others to join the project. When the 270-meter (885-foot) asteroid was first discovered in 2004, astronomers estimated its chances of smashing into Earth in its first flyby, in 2029, at 1-in-37. Further studies have ruled out the possibility of an impact in 2029, when the asteroid is expected to come no closer than 18,300 miles (29,450 kilometers) from Earth's surface, but they indicated a small possibility of a hit on subsequent encounters. NASA had put the chances that Apophis could hit Earth in 2036 as 1-in-45,000. In October, after researchers recalculated the asteroid's path, the agency changed its estimate to 1-in-250,000. NASA said another close encounter in 2068 will involve a 1-in-330,000 chance of impact. Don Yeomans, who heads NASA's Near-Earth Object Program, said better calculations of Apophis' path in several years "will almost certainly remove any possibility of an Earth collision" in 2036. "While Apophis is almost certainly not a problem, I am encouraged that the Russian science community is willing to study the various deflection options that would be available in the event of a future Earth threatening encounter by an asteroid," Yeomans said in an e-mail Wednesday. Without mentioning NASA's conclusions, Perminov said that he heard from a scientist that Apophis is getting closer and may hit the planet. "I don't remember exactly, but it seems to me it could hit the Earth by 2032," Perminov said. "People's lives are at stake. We should pay several hundred million dollars and build a system that would allow us to prevent a collision, rather than sit and wait for it to happen and kill hundreds of thousands of people," Perminov said. Scientists have long theorized about asteroid deflection strategies. Some have proposed sending a probe to circle around a dangerous asteroid to gradually change its trajectory. Others suggested sending a spacecraft to collide with the asteroid and alter its momentum, or hitting it with nuclear weapons. Perminov wouldn't disclose any details of the project, saying they still need to be worked out. But he said the mission wouldn't require any nuclear explosions. Hollywood action films "Deep Impact" and "Armageddon," have featured space missions scrambling to avoid catastrophic collisions. In both movies, space crews use nuclear bombs in an attempt to prevent collisions. "Calculations show that it's possible to create a special purpose spacecraft within the time we have, which would help avoid the collision," Perminov said. "The threat of collision can be averted." Boris Shustov, the director of the Institute of Astronomy under the Russian Academy of Sciences, hailed Perminov's statement as a signal that officials had come to recognize the danger posed by asteroids. "Apophis is just a symbolic example, there are many other dangerous objects we know little about," he said, according to RIA Novosti news agency. news.yahoo.com/s/ap/eu_russia_asteroid_encounter
 
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Cybernuke       12/31/2009 4:31:54 AM
Hahaha...when I saw this on Yahoo that's all I was about to squeeze outta my mouth. I was wondering...well...why? There's so many things wrong with this.

First, NASA is more than reasonably sure that astroid was not going to hit the Earth. Second, Perminov the head of the Russian space agency didn't even know when the astroid was going to be near earth  "don't remember exactly, but it seems to me it could hit the Earth by 2032." Hello, you're having a press conference about that astroid shouldn't you know when our impending doom is? It sounds like a no-brainer to me. And, why? Shouldn't Russia be using that money on its armed forces to get its ICBMs working instead of getting a space craft on an astroid that probably won't hit (oh the irony)? And finally what if instead of destroying a astroid that might hit way in the future they screw up and up it on our path?

I think Russia should just leave the "saving the world" business to those who actually can do it (USA, EU, and Japan). 
 
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french stratege       12/31/2009 1:45:32 PM
It depends which country this asteroid would hit.
 
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Le Zookeeper    FS easy answer   12/31/2009 3:35:14 PM

It depends which country this asteroid would hit.

Los Angeles is the usual target
Hollywoods #1 target
 
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Cybernuke       12/31/2009 5:22:24 PM
Lol @ Los Angeles.
 
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Lance Blade       1/1/2010 6:29:33 AM

Hahaha...when I saw this on Yahoo that's all I was about to squeeze outta my mouth. I was wondering...well...why? There's so many things wrong with this.




First, NASA is more than reasonably sure that astroid was not going to hit the Earth. Second, Perminov the head of the Russian space agency didn't even know when the astroid was going to be near earth  "don't remember exactly, but it seems to me it could hit the Earth by 2032." Hello, you're having a press conference about that astroid shouldn't you know when our impending doom is? It sounds like a no-brainer to me. And, why? Shouldn't Russia be using that money on its armed forces to get its ICBMs working instead of getting a space craft on an astroid that probably won't hit (oh the irony)? And finally what if instead of destroying a astroid that might hit way in the future they screw up and up it on our path?




I think Russia should just leave the "saving the world" business to those who actually can do it (USA, EU, and Japan). 

Someone needs to promote Roskosmos interests with flashy save-the-world missions that also bolster national pride... how else are they going to get government funding? Kliper is half-dead, the Russian Mars mission seems to have collapsed in a pile of self-contradiction as well. From what I gather, Roskosmos today is a mess with no long-term doctrine and half-completed projects put together without much logical sense. It's sad to see that such crass populism is needed to keep the R&D leg of the  Russian space industry afloat, but whatever it takes I guess... NASA should be grateful. Now the public knows about Apophis, there will be pressure on the US gov-t to "do something". 
 
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Das Kardinal       1/2/2010 6:26:44 AM
Where is SG1 when the devious Apophis evidently threatens Earth with destruction ?
 
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WarNerd       1/4/2010 5:43:58 AM

Los Angeles is the usual target

Hollywoods #1 target
 
Are you sure?  I thought it was Tokyo.  Or is that only for Godzilla?
Wouldn't be wild if they ended up moving the object into an earth impact orbit?  Oops!
 
 
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Le Zookeeper    WN   1/4/2010 10:15:55 PM
Asteroid & Meteors hit LA & NYC, Paris got it in the movie with Tea Leoni, Tokyo gets Godzilla- Hollywood ensures the smelly creatures are for others, we get the hot girls cheering on the astronauts to save LA.
 
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