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Subject: Lithuanian/Polish/Ukrainian Increased Cooperation
singularity    11/19/2009 12:37:06 PM
Lithuania, Poland and Ukraine are forming are forming a three way international peacekeeping brigade called LITPOLUKRBRIG. According to the Telegraph (UK newspaper), the strength may range from 2,000-5,000 soldiers. link According to RIA Novosti (Russian newspaper), this is the second combined battalion between Poland and Ukraine and the paper claims other countries can apparently join the agreement. It appears that Poland and Lithuania are attempting to integrate Ukraine further into NATO and Europe, despite (and perhaps because of) the hesitation by France,Germany and some others. I think further integration/alliances between Ukraine, Poland and the other Central and Eastern European countries offers increased protection against Russian influence or even attack. This got me thinking about this scenario: What would occur if Russia and Ukraine have another spat over gas deliveries and Ukraine attempts to kick out the Russian fleet from Crimea? If this escalated to an armed conflict (non-nuclear), and Poland, Lithuania (and perhaps Czech Republic, Slovakia, Estonia and Latvia) came to the aid of Ukraine against Russia (which would probably have the support of Belarus), what would their odds be? I am assuming the other NATO members such as US, France, Germany do not interfere because they are either tied down or do not want to protect countries freedoms because of the chance of losing Russian "business". How long could these countries last? Could they take Kalingrad and deny the Russians a foothold? How long would it take for these countries to develop nukes (Ukraine had some stationed on its land before it disarmed).
 
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Godofgamblers       12/3/2009 1:53:02 AM
I can see in this thread that we keep coming back to the Ukraine, and rightly so. The chances of Russia declaring war on Poland are very slight. The Russians have no territorial pretensions in Poland, and the Poles none in Russia. The Ukraine is the key to it all. The Ukrainian elite referred to earlier in this thread and their strident nationalism are dead-on correct. Very true. But the fact is that very little of the populace shares their nationalistic fervor. The statues of Shevchenko have replaced the statues of Stalin.... but to what effect?
 
Much of Russia's heritage lies in the Ukraine; even the names betray Russian influence: "Little Russia", "Novorosija" (New Russia), etc. And Shevchenko wrote a lot of his poetry in Russian....
 
There are those who contend that the Ukrainian language is a dialect of Russian. Thus, the dependent nature of the Ukraine cannot be totally ignored. I think althoug the Poles have given up their "Podmorskie" ambitions as postulated by Pilsudski, the Russians would like to have the Ukraine back in their orbit.
 
The situation is standing on a knife's edge.... it could go either way, War or Peace, IMO.
 
The Ukraine is where any war would take place. Polish participation would be limited to "moral support" or the funding of a "colored" movement in the Ukraine, but that's it.
 
 
 
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Godofgamblers       1/15/2010 5:12:51 AM

Holy sh**! Just had an inspiration. The way to solve the logistics problem. As holmes said, once you eliminate the impossible, the remaining option, no matter how fantastic it seems, must be the answer!

If the Russians can surround the hedgehogs, overrun supply depots, that means there is only one possible way to resupply them: by water!

Crazy yet brilliant. A submersible that is able to navigate the waters of the river system, coordinating to replenish and carry off casualties to bases at the north and south of the river, as far away from the fighting as possible.

Elementary!

 
 
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Nocturne       1/15/2010 9:09:22 AM
it's better than nothing. but those submersibles would be very vunerable. with the factor of surpirse yes it might be a good idea. but with surprise gone all those submersibles would be in a lot f trouble. these is no place to maneuver in most of those rivers and they are too slow to escape fire
some fishing nets would be enough to stop the traffic. its good idea for several critical supply runs or to evacuate some  valuable officer but thats it...
anyway we are talking just about buying time not winning so probably any idea that would win half a day is good
 
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singularity       3/26/2010 11:57:04 AM
Interesting solution with the submersibles. To add to the discussion, there is now some evidence that it appears Poland does in face have some sort of nuclear capability or can develop them rather quickly. Not sure how much expertise Ukraine still has even though there were nukes based in that country during the Cold War.
 
link
 
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