Military History | How To Make War | Wars Around the World Rules of Use How to Behave on an Internet Forum
Armed Forces of the World Discussion Board
Sign In   Return to Topic Page
Subject: Lithuanian/Polish/Ukrainian Increased Cooperation
singularity    11/19/2009 12:37:06 PM
Lithuania, Poland and Ukraine are forming are forming a three way international peacekeeping brigade called LITPOLUKRBRIG. According to the Telegraph (UK newspaper), the strength may range from 2,000-5,000 soldiers. link According to RIA Novosti (Russian newspaper), this is the second combined battalion between Poland and Ukraine and the paper claims other countries can apparently join the agreement. It appears that Poland and Lithuania are attempting to integrate Ukraine further into NATO and Europe, despite (and perhaps because of) the hesitation by France,Germany and some others. I think further integration/alliances between Ukraine, Poland and the other Central and Eastern European countries offers increased protection against Russian influence or even attack. This got me thinking about this scenario: What would occur if Russia and Ukraine have another spat over gas deliveries and Ukraine attempts to kick out the Russian fleet from Crimea? If this escalated to an armed conflict (non-nuclear), and Poland, Lithuania (and perhaps Czech Republic, Slovakia, Estonia and Latvia) came to the aid of Ukraine against Russia (which would probably have the support of Belarus), what would their odds be? I am assuming the other NATO members such as US, France, Germany do not interfere because they are either tied down or do not want to protect countries freedoms because of the chance of losing Russian "business". How long could these countries last? Could they take Kalingrad and deny the Russians a foothold? How long would it take for these countries to develop nukes (Ukraine had some stationed on its land before it disarmed).
 
Quote    Reply

Email Me When A New Comment Is Made
Show Only Poster Name and Title     Newest to Oldest

Pages: PREV  1 2 3 4 5 6 7   NEXT
Jeff_F_F    Defense pacts   11/25/2009 10:04:18 PM
The problem that a defense pact with western European nations or with America has is obvious. We may decide we don't want to die for your nation when we don't have any immediate intrest in defending it, and probably have significant intrests in trade with Russia, long term diplomatic stability in our relations with Russia, etc.
 
The Russians are definitely skillful and ruthless. Any doubt of either should be resolved by their handling of the conflict with Georgia. At least with a regional alliance, everyone involved has a common need to not be bullied by Russia. Whether they have the political will to abide by that alliance when the going gets tough is a question I'm in no position to answer. Neither can I answer if their various leaders are smart enough to avoid falling into a trap such as that the Russians laid for the Georgians. At the same time nothing is potentially so unifying as a common enemy. Would western Europe be at peace today had it not been for the unifying threat of the Soviet Union?
 
Quote    Reply

Godofgamblers       11/25/2009 10:15:30 PM

I liked the hedgehog strategy outline previously. I've often wondered how it might work if a nation designed their defense around the idea of planning ahead of time for a guerilla war against an invader rather than hoping to stop a more powerful enemy. One idea I had would be making the copper plates needed for SEFOP IEDs commonly available.

 

Another thought I've had was inspired by the generally ineffective use of Katyusha rockets by the insurgents in Iraq and Afghanistan. What if an artillery rocket was packaged in a single-shot, disposable launcher with some wheels at one end to facilitate being dragged by one or more soldiers. It would need a simple folding bipod and basic elevation controls to aim it in the general direction of the target and fire it on an elevation compatible with efficiently reaching the general vicinity of the target. Ballistic accuracy wouldn't be needed for this weapon because it would be GPS guided. It would have a control panel to enter the coordinates of the target and would launch on either a time delay, or in a time on target mode that would automatically calculate an approximate time of flight to the coordinates entered and launch the rocket at the correct time to get there for the TOT. Then the nation desiring occupation insurance makes or buys these and places caches of them in secure locations around the country. If invaded, the military disperses and takes them into hiding. I wouldn't want to be an enemy occupying any fixed location in that country.

 

Yes, I agree with your thinking. Best to fight a 'winter war' sort of battle against the enemy (i.e. Using your terrain to the max, hence my hedgehog waterway strategy for the Poles) and when that fails due to the enemy's superior numbers, activate the Werewolf fighters (though hopefully they would be more effective than the Nazi ones).

 

Maybe as the invaders are set to attack, announce that the whole country shall convert to Islam too hehe.

 
Quote    Reply

Hugo       11/26/2009 5:15:49 AM
Should anyone defending against Russia not be best advised to learn lessons from their largely unsuccessful war against Finland?  The relative strength of Russia and Finland was even more in favour of the former than any conflict today between Russia and Poland.
 
Quote    Reply

Lance Blade       11/26/2009 11:58:46 AM
Two things worth considering.
 
1. The Poles and the Ukrainians are not friendly cultures. They're politically close today, but for all the stink the Poles raise about Katyn, Ukrainian mass murders of Poles weren't much better (arguably a lot worse during the times of Bogdan Khmelnicky and the Cossacs.) Poland considers Ukraine their lost province (which is true) and Lviv in particular, should really be a Polish city. The Ukrainian people know this.
2. The Lithuanians and the Poles hate each other. I'm not sure why this is, but it appears to be the case. I'd imagine it's to do with the Commonwealth falling apart. 
 
Their respective political leaders have one thing in common - anti-Russian paranoia. Beyond that, there is not enough trust between these peoples for a real alliance. 
 
Quote    Reply

Nocturne       11/26/2009 4:28:44 PM
About those hedgehogs. i am not actually an expert in military strategy or tactics..but it isnt that different from 1939. In my opinion those hedgehogs are just pockets waiting to be surrounded.. for 2-3 days they might do fine but after that they would be bypassed and surrounded. the problem is that in a day or two they would be largly out of fuel and immobile. So its bliztkrieg once again.. u have a highly mobile enemy against static polish defenses. it would be systematical. U just roabloack nearest polish  hedgehogs and concentrate max of yours force against one hedgehog( with russian manpower and heavy weapon supperiority they could do this in several places at the same time).  Blast it- move to he next one. While its possible that those hedgehogs could support each other with some sort of mixed artillery  and i dont know what. But without some sort of logistc lines they would soon be out shells( after several days they would be firing only in critical self defence needs not in support of other hedgehogs), spare parts ( leopard its not like T-34...u cant fix it with the hammer), fuel ( i dont think u can airdrop it?). Soviet ww2 could survive on very little supplies, modern divisions cant. It would look like gerogia with russian troops picking up abandoned tanks and guns on the road sides (broken, out of fuel). I am not sure i cant suggest anything better..probably just some form of elastic defenes with max SAM and aviation support for a quick local counter attacks..after that probably counter attacks with just SAM's ..after that with nothing.. Hedehogs would form naturally  in the final phase after no fuel or retreat paths were left.

Fins have little chances to repeat the past miracles against russians. No mannerheim line this time. Of course they could still play war in the woods maybe even outperform russians there. But they cant hold Helsinki adn other important place with them gone.. yeah it's like georgia again russian just move in destory all the military instalations and whatever they want. take whatever they want. Still fins have the best chance out of all polish/ baltic. 
I am just interested in why russians arent moving against central asia ( it's not like like NATO could help anybody there) China? And i think those countries still have much soviet legacy....more than baltics for example . Kazakhstan still has like 80% o f people fluent in russian..no western democratic mumbo jumbo there. And they have oil.. and russian could stop paying for baikonur:D. Its bigger price with less headache.
 
Quote    Reply

Nocturne       11/26/2009 4:29:55 PM
i hate..the lack of edit button:D sry for my english again
 
Quote    Reply

Lance Blade       11/27/2009 5:28:29 AM


I am just interested in why russians arent moving against central asia ( it's not like like NATO could help anybody there) China? And i think those countries still have much soviet legacy....more than baltics for example . Kazakhstan still has like 80% o f people fluent in russian..no western democratic mumbo jumbo there. And they have oil.. and russian could stop paying for baikonur:D. Its bigger price with less headache.

Surely Chinese influence would have been a motivator, not a deterrent? The reason, I believe, is that Russians already have close ties with the Kazakhstani political elite and relations between the two countries are very good. An outright invasion would be far too costly, and would most definitely bring down the Russian government. It'll be a worse idea than invading Ukraine. Makes more sense in the political elites of the countries, to further develop free-trade agreements and mutual defence pacts. The CSTO is a functional organisation today, with Kazakhstani troops participating in Checnhya. The Russia-Belarus-kazakhstan free economic zone is due to come into force in 2010. A Russian invasion of Kazakhstan would make about as much sense as America invading the UK to halt the eurocentric trends there.
 
Quote    Reply

gf0012-aust       11/27/2009 7:13:56 AM

Should anyone defending against Russia not be best advised to learn lessons from their largely unsuccessful war against Finland?  The relative strength of Russia and Finland was even more in favour of the former than any conflict today between Russia and Poland.
I purchased the video of the "winter war" approx 15 years ago - Talvisota (??)  excellent movie.  problem is that it was on VHS video cassette and I never got around to converting it to DVD. 
 
Quote    Reply

Hugo       11/27/2009 9:39:28 AM


Should anyone defending against Russia not be best advised to learn lessons from their largely unsuccessful war against Finland?  The relative strength of Russia and Finland was even more in favour of the former than any conflict today between Russia and Poland.



I purchased the video of the "winter war" approx 15 years ago - Talvisota (??)  excellent movie.  problem is that it was on VHS video cassette and I never got around to converting it to DVD. 

Argh..  and very frustrating when the content owners don't get around to putting things in DVD format.. 
I wonder though if a successful guerilla war can only be fought in difficult terrain like that of Finland and not in say Poland.

 
Quote    Reply

Nasty German Idiot       11/27/2009 9:51:35 AM
A little offtopic, but "Talvisota" is available online I think i saw it on youtube lately.  And also a subtitled version in english. 
 
Quote    Reply
PREV  1 2 3 4 5 6 7   NEXT



StrategyWorld.com© 1998 - 2012StrategyWorld.com. All rights Reserved. StrategyWorld.com, StrategyPage.com, FYEO, For Your Eyes Only and Al Nofi's CIC are all trademarks of StrategyWorld.com Privacy Policy