My point had nothing to do with suggesting we should attack NK. It would probably have been very stupid to do so, for exactly the reasons you mention.

 

It was that your sort of blind vitriol directed at Obama on this sort of issue, tends to ignore the fact that much of the hole we are in on this issue is due directly to the incompetence of the Bush administration (though the Clinton administration isn't entirely without blame on this issue either).

 

The guy has only been in office for a little over six months and it isn't clear that there is ANY good way to deal with the situation. It's very much a dammed if you do and dammed if you don't dilemma.

 

If anyone has a solution that won't cause just as many problems, I've not heard it.

 

Now on Iran. I always said the GWB should of took care of Iran before doing anything in Iraq. The Iranian regime was ten times more dangerous, and is the worlds leading sponsor of international terrorism. Iran really is persuing wmd's, it also has a much better equiped military that can actually threaten Isreal and US interests. Unlike Saddam, there leaders are religious loons, and are the most dangerous counrty on the face of the earth. In closing, yes I think Bush also made a mistake for not going after Iran first. I think his hatred for Saddam got the best of his judgment.

I'm in complete agreement with you on this, though I'm not sure attacking Iran on would bring about any better results than what attacking Iraq brought about. Eliminating one without eliminating the other, was almost invariably going to create a power vacuum that the remaining country would be bound to fill. But I suppose Iraq was at least more boxed in with sanctions and no-fly zones.

 

I would dearly like to know exactly what the hell it was that was going through the minds of the GWB's administration with the decision to attack Iraq. I have a horrible feeling that the possiblilty, of there being any other choice or options, never even entered their minds. Their complete failure to do any planning for the post war situation and lack of interest in doing any, doesn't incline me to place much faith in their decision making process.

In protecting the Strait you will need to counter Iranian submarines, shore based Anti-shipping missiles, mines, and random small boats that could be loaded with explosives... One attack on a tanker and the price per barrel of oil skyrockets... (not desireable going into winter... )

I ask about China and Russia because they have shown reluctance to side with the west against Iran... Pakistan is a different matter, unrest there is just looking for another catalyst. A western attack on another of their neighbours would see many Pakistani's calling for Jihad.

 

And of course terrorism... It's not just France you will need to protect BW, it is everywhere French interests are that will need protection.

 

I have no answers for you, only caution...

The problem I have with trying to plan this sort of intervention, is that how to go about destroying things isn't the issue. We can destroy anything that the Iranians have and there's little they can do to stop us.

 

The real problem and issue, is how do you know WHAT to attack WHERE?

 

It's an intelligence problem, not a military one.

Discussion of what to attack in Iran may become academic if Israel decides to act on its own which will drag the US into the conflict if Iran drops mines or attacks targets in the gulf.  Then there is the prospect of domestic terrorism if Hezbollah and Iranian cells operating in the US are activated.

Even if the current administration has no plans to attack Iran, it better have contingency plans in place to deal with a the potential of unilateral Israeli action. 

Bingo.  Obama, Gordon, and Sarkozy have to keep in mind that if the West doesn't act to stop the Iranian nuclear weapons program, then at some point the Israelis will very likely go it alone.  As far as the Israelis are concerned it is a matter of life and death.  Once Iran (or Syria, or Libya, or name your Arab country) develops a nuclear weapon it is only a matter of time before it is used against Israel.  You can disagree with this assertion as much as you want, but as far as the Israelis are concerned this is indisputable.  All they have to do is tune in to Arab or Farsi television broadcasts to hear their enemies vow to wipe them off the map.  If we don't do something about the Iranian nuclear weapons program the Israelis will, and the West had better be prepared to deal with the aftermath. 

 

Although Libya (although not technically Arab) are one of only a few countries to abandon their Nuclear weapons ambitions...

Pretty sure i Pakistan (although not technically Arab either) haven't used theirs against Israel yet, but i don't read the newspapers every day...

 

If one tunes into the words of Israelis and Zionist supportters in the US, you also hear a lot about wiping nations off the map...

 

You have my word that when the mullahs will start passing working nukes to their Happily Jihading Terrorist friends, the World economy will be all of a sudden in such a mood that the price of oil and what Israel may or may not do will be the last of your worries.

In the meantime, I suppose that the Norks have not succeeded making such a sale, but when the Iranians, with their admittedly better engineering capabilities (thank the Germans and the Swiss for the kewl CNC machines), will have mastered compact warhead technology, it won't be for the cash, but for the the sake of Allah!

Please just consider bequeathing your children a John Brunner...-styled 21^st Century dystopia before accepting the Nuclear Jihad as inevitable.

 

 

 

My understanding of both Iran and NK's nuclear programme was that all the tech equipment were purchase through the AQ Khan network based from Pakistan and Dubai... So don't underestimate the quality of NK's tech...

And NK has a history of funding "terrorists" and despot regimes (the Tamils, Yemenese Al Quida, Mynmar, Bangladesh...)

Well, Sarkozy and Gordon will have to do the acting without Obama. It's becoming clear to even the folks who have tried to support this fool that he's full of shit!! Sarkozy finally knows it and is furious at this fool that goes by the title of President of the USA. Obama is going to get us all killed if we aint careful. He's an arrogant know it all fool that cannot learn because of it and those to combos are exremely dangerous. Especially when you are considered the leader of the free world!!! Never thought I'd say it, But the USA needs to lsiten to France on this one. Below is how Sarkozy feels about our *naive* little fool running htis nation! Obama is waisting precious time, money and resources on this idiotic pursuit of a nuclear free world. It is NEVER going to happen. If he wasn't such an arrogant ass he would get this and get about the business of protecting us and not endangering us. Thank God he's going to be the classic one and done  type president and cost the dems the house and senate before he's done.

When the President of France is outraged at the US for taking a weak non confrontational position over a serious issue one has to wonder which universe one inhabits and how does it differ from the old one?  So one has to sit and hope the President of France can prod the President of the US to take the issue seriously?  One hopes it's all part of the secret plan to good cop/bad cop Iran but one might be forgiven for doubting that happens in our universe either.

 

Iran getting nuclear weapons means an nuclear arms race of Arab nations trying to counter the Persian bomb.  Egypt, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE will go nuclear.  The UAE just signed a contract to help them down this path.  A nuclear Egypt or Saudi Arabia could easily see a change of regime leading to a very radical Sunni fundamentalist theocracy over the next few decades.  Iran going nuclear is much more than merely a threat to a bunch of jews the world does not care about.  It's a long term geo political nexus of instability the world can very much do without.  

 

All this aside if the US with any allies ever did strike Iran they would never for a moment consider doing it with Israel- that is an extremely horrific idea.  Further aside it does not appear that Israel has been able to convince the West that they are serious about striking Iran if nothing is done their nuclear program.  Either Israel is not serious and would not strike Iran or nobody believe them and the potential downside from that strike is even worse as we are lacking realistic planning and preparations.  Israel struck in 1956 with the UK and France, struck first in 1967, invaded Lebanon in 1982, bombed Iraq's nuclear site in 1981, Syria's in 2007, hit the PLO in Tunis in 1985, and one could go on for a while with this.  Those who believe Israel will never strike Iran ignore the historical reality.