Although Libya (although not technically Arab) are one of only a few countries to abandon their Nuclear weapons ambitions...

Pretty sure i Pakistan (although not technically Arab either) haven't used theirs against Israel yet, but i don't read the newspapers every day...

 

If one tunes into the words of Israelis and Zionist supportters in the US, you also hear a lot about wiping nations off the map...

 

You have my word that when the mullahs will start passing working nukes to their Happily Jihading Terrorist friends, the World economy will be all of a sudden in such a mood that the price of oil and what Israel may or may not do will be the last of your worries.

In the meantime, I suppose that the Norks have not succeeded making such a sale, but when the Iranians, with their admittedly better engineering capabilities (thank the Germans and the Swiss for the kewl CNC machines), will have mastered compact warhead technology, it won't be for the cash, but for the the sake of Allah!

Please just consider bequeathing your children a John Brunner-styled 21^st Century dystopia before accepting the Nuclear Jihad as inevitable.

 

 

 

My understanding of both Iran and NK's nuclear programme was that all the tech equipment were purchase through the AQ Khan network based from Pakistan and Dubai... So don't underestimate the quality of NK's tech...

And NK has a history of funding "terrorists" and despot regimes (the Tamils, Yemenese Al Quida, Mynmar, Bangladesh...)

Well, Sarkozy and Gordon will have to do the acting without Obama. It's becoming clear to even the folks who have tried to support this fool that he's full of shit!! Sarkozy finally knows it and is furious at this fool that goes by the title of President of the USA. Obama is going to get us all killed if we aint careful. He's an arrogant know it all fool that cannot learn because of it and those to combos are exremely dangerous. Especially when you are considered the leader of the free world!!! Never thought I'd say it, But the USA needs to lsiten to France on this one. Below is how Sarkozy feels about our *naive* little fool running htis nation! Obama is waisting precious time, money and resources on this idiotic pursuit of a nuclear free world. It is NEVER going to happen. If he wasn't such an arrogant ass he would get this and get about the business of protecting us and not endangering us. Thank God he's going to be the classic one and done  type president and cost the dems the house and senate before he's done.

When the President of France is outraged at the US for taking a weak non confrontational position over a serious issue one has to wonder which universe one inhabits and how does it differ from the old one?  So one has to sit and hope the President of France can prod the President of the US to take the issue seriously?  One hopes it's all part of the secret plan to good cop/bad cop Iran but one might be forgiven for doubting that happens in our universe either.

 

Iran getting nuclear weapons means an nuclear arms race of Arab nations trying to counter the Persian bomb.  Egypt, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE will go nuclear.  The UAE just signed a contract to help them down this path.  A nuclear Egypt or Saudi Arabia could easily see a change of regime leading to a very radical Sunni fundamentalist theocracy over the next few decades.  Iran going nuclear is much more than merely a threat to a bunch of jews the world does not care about.  It's a long term geo political nexus of instability the world can very much do without.  

 

All this aside if the US with any allies ever did strike Iran they would never for a moment consider doing it with Israel- that is an extremely horrific idea.  Further aside it does not appear that Israel has been able to convince the West that they are serious about striking Iran if nothing is done their nuclear program.  Either Israel is not serious and would not strike Iran or nobody believe them and the potential downside from that strike is even worse as we are lacking realistic planning and preparations.  Israel struck in 1956 with the UK and France, struck first in 1967, invaded Lebanon in 1982, bombed Iraq's nuclear site in 1981, Syria's in 2007, hit the PLO in Tunis in 1985, and one could go on for a while with this.  Those who believe Israel will never strike Iran ignore the historical reality.

That's exactly what I hope is going on, and also my biggest fear is that it isn't. The Iran threat is so explicit that western powers have every reason to have an actual game plan. Playing soft, stupid and weak is a superb strategy if the only purpose is to make Iran lower its guard and underestimate western resolve.

 

There you have it: If you knew you were being hit any minute, wouldn't you be extra alert with all your defensive assets, passive or active? And if you were laughing your a** off on the chaos going on between your potential enemies, would you not get sloppy over time?

 

Whatever the case, it is a good thing that Iranian leaders are laughing. Let's make them laugh even more. Let's act so stupid, that the mullahs laugh so hard they have to come out to catch some breath so their enemies can put rounds through their heads.

 

Thus, so far I haven't seen anything done by Obama that couldn't be extremely smart. He might be piling up, he might know very well what he is doing. We, The Worried Couch Generals' Association, are behaving just as a smart government would have us behave.

 

But if this isn't the case, then things are really going downhill, big time. Anyway, my point is that so far only thing we know about Obama is that he isn't doing things in a hurry and unprepared.Whatever he's doing, we're not supposed to know because then the Iranians would know too.

 

Mikko

Naturally, in an optimum world we would first reduce all the Iranian IADS to rubble before risking any bombers, but the real world is never optimal and furthermore BW wants to talk about a more limited campaign.  In this case, Iran's air defense network is so porous and so lame that there should not need to be a separate phase for gaining air superiority, if time is of the essence and limited strikes over a limited duration are mandated.

 

The initial strikes must target not only nuclear sites but also ballistic missile storage and launch sites.  While even several dozen missiles launched toward U.S. and allied military facilities ringing Iran will accomplish little military effect, the Iranians might try what Saddam tried--shooting at Israel in an attempt to goad them into retaliation.  Hopefully even if some missiles are lobbed Israel's way, their ballistic missile defense will get some, and we can convince the Israelis that the few that do hit them can be tolerated given that we're finally mopping up on Iran.  Disabling their few fixed launch sites for MRBMs would be pretty simple, but trying to catch a substantial number of their mobile SRBMs and even mobile cruise missile batteries (to protect Gulf shipping from anti-ship cruise missile attacks) would be quite a challenge.

While I'm all for decapitating the enemy in a war, in this case perhaps going after national command authorities and military leadership (mullahs, IRGC commanders) might be counterproductive.  Perhaps if we do not attack national level C2, they will see that we are not trying for regime change, and they won't feel threatened wnough to go all-out in retaliation.  Of course, if the roles were reversed, and my country's nuclear program was getting bombed, I'd want my country to declare war on the attackers no matter who they were, and go all-out in our counterattacks, but maybe that's just me....  Hmmm, on second thought, we might as well try to take out their ballistic missile and their Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps C4 while we're at it, since there's no way they're going to just roll over and take this pounding without fighting back, and the IRGC army, airforce, and navy are the ones most likely to engage in counterattacks.

Albywan , I don 't have time to respond to your post , I am very sorry . I will as soon as I have some time off .

We need to go into details .

 

sinoflex and smitty are spot on . This is also why Europe has to act first , to stop Israel to go alone and to a lesser extent to avoid the USA to get involved to soon , at least on the political chessboard (UN) .

 

Cheers .

LB :

I agree with your sentiment here.

If anything, a Euro lead on this would present a greater "western" coalition than a US/Israeli lead action.

 

The key to a Euro lead initiative IMHO is to get countires such as Germany, Holland, Sweden and Russia on board.

 

The UN, again IMHO has let the Middle East down on too many occasions to warrant any real significance. The resolutions it passes are paper, worth as much as the perferated paper i use daily in a small cubicle.