Dollar not devalued? You?re delusional.
The British pound has been nearly as badly hit as the dollar in recent times yet, despite that, in January 2009, 1 GBP got you $1.442. Now it will return $1.64.
As for the Euro, in January 2009, 1 Euro got you $1.323. Now it will return $1.455.
That?s a 14% devaluation against the GBP and 10% against the Euro. Can you find me a major currency that it hasn?t been devalued against?
THE USDOLLAR CARRY TRADE
Welcome a new carry trade to town! Here in the present, the new carry trade has begun to take root with the USDollar as its basis. Its requirements are simply stated. It needs a crippled bank system that offers a reliable 0% interest rate, a crippled currency that offers little risk of a rise in exchange rate, and plenty of targeted opportunities to invest in rising asset groups in competition. The gold asset is one such object asset. One is hard pressed to identify a sovereign bond security pitched by a government with any credibility. Their deficits, boatloads of bond issuance, and public statements in desire of weaker currencies tend to rule them out. So Govt Bonds are not a viable object. They are too busy ruining their currencies in the midst of the Competing Currency War. Why just two weeks ago, the Swiss Govt announced their frustration at a rising currency, despite all efforts to undermine their Franc currency. They will be forced to redouble their destructive efforts. The Europeans did NOT want to reduce interest rates a year ago, but they did, a correct Jackass forecast that went directly against some banker contacts. That shows the power of the Competing Currency War, since the Euro currency had risen to 160, sufficient to render considerable harm to the European Union Economy in its export trade. With numerous currencies ?frozen? from programmed destruction, the time is ripe for the USDollar Carry Trade to be launched. It has been launched. THIS CARRY TRADE WILL PUNISH THE USDOLLAR BADLY AS IT WEARS A BADGE OF SHAME!
The ruinous bursted bubble from Japan around 1990 and the seemingly endless years of 0% Japanese money enabled the Yen Carry Trade against a backdrop of a chronically insolvent Japanese bank system. A critical characteristic of that carry trade was that heavy leverage applied enormous pressure in a way so as to maintain the low Yen currency and the high US$ currency. In the summer 2008 when the USFed took the official interest down to 0.25% and stuck it there, the USDollar Carry Trade was assured of a vigorous run through the financial factories. Here is what is so important about its upcoming entrenchment. The US$ exchange rates will be heavily subdued, with any rebounds totally smothered, resulting in a relentless Gold rise with gusto. The shorting of the US$ is key for the supply of funds. It comes as borrowed US$ funds used outside the US Sphere, thus net bearish. It comes as leveraged instruments designed to capitalize on a continued US$ decline integrated into securities like with short DX contracts.
The coordinated and systematic ruin of major currencies, through monetizations, through vast federal deficits, through sustained near 0% official rates, and through chronically insolvent national bank systems, will assure that the Gold asset will be a favorite for the USDollar Carry Trade for at least a couple years, maybe more. Furthermore, installation of the USDollar Carry Trade will assure that No Exit Strategy will be available to the USFed also. Wall Street firms will participate in this free lunch carry trade, just like all others. Wall Street will not permit a USFed rate hike to firm the US$ exchange rate. Talk about a strong perverse factor behind the USDollar. This is every bit as powerful as the ?Beijing Gold Put? analyzed in the Hat Trick Letter issued in September.
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