LB: I respect a guy who comes out from the offset with numbers. Numbers and analysis and then more numbers are my favourite things for questions like these.

My scenario was more political rather than based on an in depth research of the man power of both armies.

I would be interested though, since you seem to have done the research- how many troops you think Russia could support, logistically speaking? I remember reading someone fairly respected on here post that Georgia was about the limit at the moment.

 

Ukraine is the key and I believe they could contibute forces on about the scale of Poland or Germany if not the same quality.

 

Also I have said that all the allies would have to do is hold off the Russians- not mount an invasion. So the Russians would have to be supporting troops further away than they did in Georgia. -Also just a quibble here- but I read on WIKI that the German reservists amount to something like 300,000 not 35,000? Maybe you were adjusting for what you believe the Germans could realistically support out of that 300,000?

 

I'm not sure the Russians would use nukes except to defend their own territory since Germany and Poland are Nato members- and they would risk UK, French and most importantly US becoming involved. Better a limited war over all they wish to acheive which is Ukraine.

 

I suppose there is also and argument for saying that there would be a full NATO response to Ukraine being invaded- in which case Germany and Poland become only the vanguard of a much more formiddable force.

 

That is just the active number of German reserves. (that also regulary go on foreign missions ! Currently ~ 1.000 on the Balkans and Afghanistan) .  Germany has millions of conscripts that fall into the category B reserves. 

 

"Every conscript which has served at least a day in the Bundeswehr... is a reservist, unless he is declared ineligible for military service or has made a claim of conscientious objection.... Soldiers of enlisted ranks with a limited contract (either 4, 8 or 12 years) or professional soldiers, who have filled their tour of duty, are likewise part of the reserve."

 (...)

Eligibility for compulsory military service for soldiers and other servicemen of low rank ends at the end of the 45th year of age. Thereafter the conscript is no longer part of the reserve. Despite that the appellations "a.D." and/or "d.R." may still be used. Conscription for under-officers and officers lasts until the 60th year of age. Until the 32nd year of age every conscript is subject to military inspection.

link

 

As for military hardware, the main part of Germanies Cold War equipment is still in storage. That includes 300 Leopard 1, hundereds of TOW-Jagdpanzer, ~ 1000 Leopard 2 A4, 500 M-109 Artillery pieces and so on and so on ...  

 

The scenario is still bull, as Germany has nothing, absolutely nothing to gain here,  nobody has yet explained to me why Germany and Poland would fight Russia without Nato,  and its simply not worth discussing.  

PS:  Im deeply sorry for calling Moldavia, Belarus and the Ukraine shitholes, yet I think Iam the only one in this forum that has ever set foot into these countries and I can tell you what I saw was not pretty.

 

 

 

A little switch back to reality:

 

DANZIG, POLAND - SEPTEMBER 01: German Chancellor Angela Merkel (front 2nd R) and President of Poland Lech Kaczynski light candles during a remembrance of the German invasion in Poland in 1939 at the cemetary of defenders on September 1, 2009 at Westerplatte Monument in Gdansk, Poland. Today, Merkel and european leaders attend a ceremony marking the 70th anniversary of the start of World War II. (Photo by Guido Bergmann-Pool/Getty Images)

 

 

 

 

Sorry but I assumed since you cited Barbarossa that Germany and Poland would be invading Russia.  Nuclear weapons aside that is a non starter "today".

 

If you want to posit Russia attacking you have to assume Germany and Poland not in NATO, no other assistance, and no nukes which is really outside our reality.

 

In any case you have to make some assumptions about how many operational aircraft Russia would have.  They have somewhere around 500 SU-27s in the air force and naval aviation, 500 MiG 29s,  400 MiG 31s, 600 Su-24s, 300 Su-25s, and maybe 225 or so Backfire bombers plus other combat aircraft.  Call it 3,000 or so.  Assume the real number is half that or 1,500.  That is 1,500 to Germany and Poland's roughly 400 combat aircraft which we give full credit for.  The 150 or so German and Polish Typhoon's, F-4's, F-16's, and MiG 29s and not going to defeat 700 or more Su-27's, Mig 29s, and Mig 31s.  Anyone want to mention how many SS-26's Russia might have and whether they've got one they can launch from a Backfire and what other long range conventional air to surface missiles they have in service in what numbers, lol? 

 

On the positive side the road and rail nets and level of motorization is vastly higher today than WWII so the far more modest numbers of forces engaged should have far less trouble logistically.

LB and NastyGermanIdiot

 

Yeah, I get it now. I tried to make wombat boy's scenario more realistic by bringing in Ukraine which seems logically like the only place Russia would invade west of the caucaus.

 

In my original post I said I'd let others with more intel work out the specifics of the forces and it's clear that the Germans and Poles alone would not be able to even defend Ukraine if Russia went all out.

 

Unless some massive geopolitical shift occurs to make the US stop caring about Europe, it would be a NATO response, especially since Ukraine is leaning towards NATO which is part of what is making the Kremlin jittery. And even then it would still be and EU coalition- not Germany and Poland alone which is actually bizzare when you think about it .

 

So, new question: Could NATO push the Russians out of Ukraine if we were taken by suprise, and Germany and Poland plus presumably the US troops in Germany formed the vanguard of a larger force?

 

Answer is probably yes though any good argument is welcome.

 

Still seems unlikely though. I personally don't think the Russians could miscalculate that badly.

 

The only plausible way I can see Russia invading in the first place is if the US no longer has such a big presence in Europe- which could happen within the next 30 years. One can imagine various security worries and a difficult economy leading to rollbacks such as the Roman Empire did in Britain. Emerging powers in asia, difficulties of climate change etc. lead to the collapse of NATO as a real power. Then the Kremlin might risk it.

 

So a second question is could the EU push Russia out of Ukraine if it applied for EU membership and then got invaded in the near future?

LB and NastyGermanIdiot

 

Yeah, I get it now. I tried to make wombat boy's scenario more realistic by bringing in Ukraine which seems logically like the only place Russia would invade west of the caucaus.

 

In my original post I said I'd let others with more intel work out the specifics of the forces and it's clear that the Germans and Poles alone would not be able to even defend Ukraine if Russia went all out.

 

Unless some massive geopolitical shift occurs to make the US stop caring about Europe, it would be a NATO response, especially since Ukraine is leaning towards NATO which is part of what is making the Kremlin jittery. And even then it would still be and EU coalition- not Germany and Poland alone which is actually bizzare when you think about it .

 

So, new question: Could NATO push the Russians out of Ukraine if we were taken by suprise, and Germany and Poland plus presumably the US troops in Germany formed the vanguard of a larger force?

 

Answer is probably yes though any good argument is welcome.

 

Still seems unlikely though. I personally don't think the Russians could miscalculate that badly.

 

The only plausible way I can see Russia invading in the first place is if the US no longer has such a big presence in Europe- which could happen within the next 30 years. One can imagine various security worries and a difficult economy leading to rollbacks such as the Roman Empire did in Britain. Emerging powers in asia, difficulties of climate change etc. lead to the collapse of NATO as a real power. Then the Kremlin might risk it.

 

So a second question is could the EU push Russia out of Ukraine if it applied for EU membership and then got invaded in the near future?

It's just my opinion but I really don't see NATO voting to go to war with Russia to liberate a Ukraine occupied by Russia.  It's not in the world's interest for nuclear armed major powers to engage in direct military conflict.

 

Instead you'd get a new mini cold war and military build up in Europe with sanctions on Russia.  There would also be a nasty insurgency in Ukraine.  Partisans from WWII in Ukraine were still fighting the Soviets into the 1950s.

 

Your scenario's plausible. I really hope it dosen't happen though. I really hope my scenario dosen't actually happen either. I was trying to make a ridiculous scenario as close to reality as I could- but in reality I hope common sense and economic interdependence would prevent any such bloodshed.

 

European Union / Nato vs Russia.   [No nukes]

 

Before the Russians even take a grip in the Ukraine, their post at Kaliningrad is annihilated by Polish/German forces.  Russia than has to cover a front reaching possibly from Finland down to Turkey / Middle East. (depending on Nato involvement)  While Finland is not in Nato, they have signed the EU-Defense treaty.

Russians may be able to get some fighters in the Air over the Ukraine and defend their airspace a while, but they are clearly inferior to Nato Airpower.  The few modern Russian tanks (some hundered T-90) will face an equal number of Nato Tanks, making huge advances possible only when we give the suprise factor to Russia. But even than it wont last long. Production capability is concentrated in Europe, in fact Russia is hopelessly inferior on the field of Economy, and Europe can get its rescources from the whole World while Russia faces isolation in Wartime.

 

 

 

I may also remind People that the currently active number of the biggest 6 European Union Nations exeeds the Russian number, even if you count the huge reservoir of Putins interior ministry in.  Same goes for any sort of equipment, which is to huge parts not opeational on the Russian side. 

 

Germany:       250,000

France:           245,000

Italy:              230,500

Great Britain:  201,000

Spain:            143,500

Poland:          125,000

 

This doesnt even take the smaller nations into account who account for another 500,000 active soldiers. Reserve troops numbers equal - however the European Union does have more than 3 times as many inhabitants and several times the economic power of Russia.